Predictive models of syncope causes in an outpatient clinic

The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

Plasticity in sex allocation in the plant Mercurialis annua is greater for hermaphrodites sampled from dimorphic than from monomorphic populations.

Plants are notoriously variable in gender, ranging in sex allocation from purely male through hermaphrodite to purely female. This variation can have both a genetic and an adaptive plastic component. In gynodioecious species, where females co-occur with hermaphrodites, hermaphrodites tend to shift their allocation towards greater maleness when growing under low-resource conditions, either as a result of hermaphrodites shifting away from an expensive female function, or because of enhanced siring advantages in the presence of females. Similarly, in the androdioecious plant Mercurialis annua, where hermaphrodites co-exist with males, hermaphrodites also tend to enhance their relative male allocation under low-resource conditions. Here, we ask whether this response differs between hermaphrodites that have been evolving in the presence of males, in a situation analogous to that supposed for gynodioecious populations, vs. those that have been evolving in their absence. We grew hermaphrodites of M. annua from populations in which males were either present or absent under different levels of nutrient availability and compared their reaction norms. We found that, overall, hermaphrodites from populations with males tended to be more female than those from populations lacking males. Importantly, hermaphrodites' investment in pollen and seed production was more plastic when they came from populations with males than without them, reducing their pollen production at low resource availability and increasing their seed production at high resource availability. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that plasticity in sex allocation is enhanced in hermaphrodites that have likely been exposed to variation in mating opportunities due to fluctuations in the frequency of co-occurring males.

NS2 protein of hepatitis C virus interacts with structural and non-structural proteins towards virus assembly.

Growing experimental evidence indicates that, in addition to the physical virion components, the non-structural proteins of hepatitis C virus (HCV) are intimately involved in orchestrating morphogenesis. Since it is dispensable for HCV RNA replication, the non-structural viral protein NS2 is suggested to play a central role in HCV particle assembly. However, despite genetic evidences, we have almost no understanding about NS2 protein-protein interactions and their role in the production of infectious particles. Here, we used co-immunoprecipitation and/or fluorescence resonance energy transfer with fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy analyses to study the interactions between NS2 and the viroporin p7 and the HCV glycoprotein E2. In addition, we used alanine scanning insertion mutagenesis as well as other mutations in the context of an infectious virus to investigate the functional role of NS2 in HCV assembly. Finally, the subcellular localization of NS2 and several mutants was analyzed by confocal microscopy. Our data demonstrate molecular interactions between NS2 and p7 and E2. Furthermore, we show that, in the context of an infectious virus, NS2 accumulates over time in endoplasmic reticulum-derived dotted structures and colocalizes with both the envelope glycoproteins and components of the replication complex in close proximity to the HCV core protein and lipid droplets, a location that has been shown to be essential for virus assembly. We show that NS2 transmembrane region is crucial for both E2 interaction and subcellular localization. Moreover, specific mutations in core, envelope proteins, p7 and NS5A reported to abolish viral assembly changed the subcellular localization of NS2 protein. Together, these observations indicate that NS2 protein attracts the envelope proteins at the assembly site and it crosstalks with non-structural proteins for virus assembly.

Epidemiology of small intestinal atresia in Europe: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of congenital small intestinal atresia (SIA) has not been well studied. This study describes the presence of additional anomalies, pregnancy outcomes, total prevalence and association with maternal age in SIA cases in Europe. METHODS: Cases of SIA delivered during January 1990 to December 2006 notified to 20 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: In total 1133 SIA cases were reported among 5126, 164 registered births. Of 1044 singleton cases, 215 (20.6%) cases were associated with a chromosomal anomaly. Of 829 singleton SIA cases with normal karyotype, 221 (26.7%) were associated with other structural anomalies. Considering cases with normal karyotype, the total prevalence per 10 000 births was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.7) for SIA, 0.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.0) for duodenal atresia and 0.7 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.8) for jejunoileal atresia (JIA). There was no significant trend in SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA prevalence over time (RR=1.0, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0 to 1.0 for each), but SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied by geographical location (p=0.03 and p=0.04, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increased risk of SIA in mothers aged less than 20 years compared with mothers aged 20 to 29 years (RR=1.3, 95% CrI: 1.0 to 1.8). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence of a temporal trend in the prevalence of SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA, although SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied significantly between registers.

Detailed DEM analysis of a rockslide scar to characterize the basal sliding surface of active rockslides

The basal sliding surfaces in large rockslides are often composed of several surfaces and possess a complex geometry. The exact morphology and location in three dimensions of the sliding surface remains generally unknown, in spite of extensive field and subsurface investigations, such as those at the Åknes rockslide (western Norway). This knowledge is crucial for volume estimations, failure mechanisms, and numerical slope stability modeling. This paper focuses on the geomorphologic characterization of the basal sliding surface of a postglacial rockslide scar in the vicinity of Åknes. This scar displays a stepped basal sliding surface formed by dip slopes of the gneiss foliation linked together by steeply dipping fractures. A detailed characterization of the rockslide scar by means of high-resolution digital elevation models permits statistical parameters of dip angle, spacing, persistence, and roughness of foliation surfaces and step fractures to be obtained. The characteristics are used for stochastic simulations of stepped basal sliding surfaces at the Åknes rockslide. These findings are compared with previous models based on geophysical investigations. This study discusses the investigation of rockslide scars and rock outcrops for a better understanding of potential rockslides. This work identifies possible basal sliding surface locations, which is a valuable input for volume estimates, design and location of monitoring instrumentation, and numerical slope stability modeling.

Multisensory mechanisms in temporo-parietal cortex support self-location and first-person perspective.

Self-consciousness has mostly been approached by philosophical enquiry and not by empirical neuroscientific study, leading to an overabundance of diverging theories and an absence of data-driven theories. Using robotic technology, we achieved specific bodily conflicts and induced predictable changes in a fundamental aspect of self-consciousness by altering where healthy subjects experienced themselves to be (self-location). Functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed that temporo-parietal junction (TPJ) activity reflected experimental changes in self-location that also depended on the first-person perspective due to visuo-tactile and visuo-vestibular conflicts. Moreover, in a large lesion analysis study of neurological patients with a well-defined state of abnormal self-location, brain damage was also localized at TPJ, providing causal evidence that TPJ encodes self-location. Our findings reveal that multisensory integration at the TPJ reflects one of the most fundamental subjective feelings of humans: the feeling of being an entity localized at a position in space and perceiving the world from this position and perspective.

Benefici de la Simvastatina en el tractament trombolític combinat de l’ictus en models d’ isquèmia cerebral en rata

L’ictus és un dels reptes sanitaris més importants al nostre país ja que l’únic tractament disponible és l’administració de trombolítics durant les 4,5 primeres hores i menys d’un 10% dels pacients poden beneficiar-se’n. Publicacions anteriors han demostrat que el tractament de l’ictus amb estatines pot reduir l’extensió del teixit infartat i millorar la funció neurològica, per això proposem fer un estudi experimental usant un model d’isquèmia en rata, que evidenciï si el tractament combinat de Simvastatina i rt-PA incrementa el benefici obtingut únicament amb fàrmacs trombolítics i avaluï la seva seguretat quan s’administra durant la fase aguda (transformacions hemorràgiques i incidència d’infeccions).

Developmental and pathological lymphangiogenesis: from models to human disease.

The lymphatic vascular system, the body's second vascular system present in vertebrates, has emerged in recent years as a crucial player in normal and pathological processes. It participates in the maintenance of normal tissue fluid balance, the immune functions of cellular and antigen trafficking and absorption of fatty acids and lipid-soluble vitamins in the gut. Recent scientific discoveries have highlighted the role of lymphatic system in a number of pathologic conditions, including lymphedema, inflammatory diseases, and tumor metastasis. Development of genetically modified animal models, identification of lymphatic endothelial specific markers and regulators coupled with technological advances such as high-resolution imaging and genome-wide approaches have been instrumental in understanding the major steps controlling growth and remodeling of lymphatic vessels. This review highlights the recent insights and developments in the field of lymphatic vascular biology.

Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences.

Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presenceonly evaluators to usual presence/absence measures. We use a reliable, diverse, presence/absence dataset of 114 plant species to test how common presence/absence indices (Kappa, MaxKappa, AUC, adjusted D-2) compare to presenceonly measures (AVI, CVI, Boyce index) for evaluating generalised linear models (GLM). Moreover we propose a new, threshold-independent evaluator, which we call "continuous Boyce index". All indices were implemented in the B10MAPPER software. We show that the presence-only evaluators are fairly correlated (p > 0.7) to the presence/absence ones. The Boyce indices are closer to AUC than to MaxKappa and are fairly insensitive to species prevalence. In addition, the Boyce indices provide predicted-toexpected ratio curves that offer further insights into the model quality: robustness, habitat suitability resolution and deviation from randomness. This information helps reclassifying predicted maps into meaningful habitat suitability classes. The continuous Boyce index is thus both a complement to usual evaluation of presence/absence models and a reliable measure of presence-only based predictions.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Quantificació de l'error comès pels models de níxol ecològic al predir la distribució d'especies generalistes

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of California at Berkeley, from September to December 2007. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) techniques are powerful tools to predict species potential distributions. In the last ten years, a plethora of novel methodological approaches and modelling techniques have been developed. During three months, I stayed at the University of California, Berkeley, working under the supervision of Dr. David R. Vieites. The aim of our work was to quantify the error committed by these techniques, but also to test how an increase in the sample size affects the resultant predictions. Using MaxEnt software we generated distribution predictive maps, from different sample sizes, of the Eurasian quail (Coturnix coturnix) in the Iberian Peninsula. The quail is a generalist species from a climatic point of view, but an habitat specialist. The resultant distribution maps were compared with the real distribution of the species. This distribution was obtained from recent bird atlases from Spain and Portugal. Results show that ENM techniques can have important errors when predicting the species distribution of generalist species. Moreover, an increase of sample size is not necessary related with a better performance of the models. We conclude that a deep knowledge of the species’ biology and the variables affecting their distribution is crucial for an optimal modelling. The lack of this knowledge can induce to wrong conclusions.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Testing kin selection with sex allocation data in eusocial hymenoptera

Sex allocation data in eusocial Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps) provide an excellent opportunity to assess the effectiveness of kin selection, because queens and workers differ in their relatedness to females and males. The first studies on sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera compared population sex investment ratios across species. Female-biased investment in monogyne (= with single-queen colonies) populations of ants suggested that workers manipulate sex allocation according to their higher relatedness to females than males (relatedness asymmetry). However, several factors may confound these comparisons across species. First, variation in relatedness asymmetry is typically associated with major changes in breeding system and life history that may also affect sex allocation. Secondly, the relative cost of females and males is difficult to estimate across sexually dimorphic taxa, such as ants. Thirdly, each species in the comparison may not represent an independent data point, because of phylogenetic relationships among species. Recently, stronger evidence that workers control sex allocation has been provided by intraspecific studies of sex ratio variation across colonies. In several species of eusocial Hymenoptera, colonies with high relatedness asymmetry produced mostly females, in contrast to colonies with low relatedness asymmetry which produced mostly males. Additional signs of worker control were found by investigating proximate mechanisms of sex ratio manipulation in ants and wasps. However, worker control is not always effective, and further manipulative experiments will be needed to disentangle the multiple evolutionary factors and processes affecting sex allocation in eusocial Hymenoptera.