Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Precipitated iron: a limit on gettering efficacy in multicrystalline silicon

A phosphorus diffusion gettering model is used to examine the efficacy of a standard gettering process on interstitial and precipitated iron in multicrystalline silicon. The model predicts a large concentration of precipitated iron remaining after standard gettering for most as-grown iron distributions. Although changes in the precipitated iron distribution are predicted to be small, the simulated post-processing interstitial iron concentration is predicted to depend strongly on the as-grown distribution of precipitates, indicating that precipitates must be considered as internal sources of contamination during processing. To inform and validate the model, the iron distributions before and after a standard phosphorus diffusion step are studied in samples from the bottom, middle, and top of an intentionally Fe-contaminated laboratory ingot. A census of iron-silicide precipitates taken by synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence microscopy confirms the presence of a high density of iron-silicide precipitates both before and after phosphorus diffusion. A comparable precipitated iron distribution was measured in a sister wafer after hydrogenation during a firing step. The similar distributions of precipitated iron seen after each step in the solar cell process confirm that the effect of standard gettering on precipitated iron is strongly limited as predicted by simulation. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated data supports the hypothesis that gettering kinetics is governed by not only the total iron concentration but also by the distribution of precipitated iron. Finally, future directions based on the modeling are suggested for the improvement of effective minority carrier lifetime in multicrystalline silicon solar cells.

Management of urban mobility to control climate change in cities in Spain

The need to decarbonize urban mobility is one of the main motivations for all countries to achieve reduction targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In general, the transport modes that have experienced the most growth in recent years tend to be the most polluting. Most efforts have focused on improvements in vehicle efficiency and on the renewal of vehicle fleets; more emphasis should be placed on strategies related to the management of urban mobility and modal share. Research of individual travel that analyzes carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and car and public transport share in daily mobility will enable better assessments of the potential of urban mobility measures introduced to limit GHG emissions produced by transport in cities. The climate change impacts of daily mobility in Spain are explored with data from two national travel surveys in 2000 and 2006, and a method for estimating the CO2 emissions associated with each journey and each surveyed individual is provided. The results demonstrate that from 2000 to 2006, daily mobility has increased and has led to a 17% increase in CO2 emissions. When these results are separated by transport mode, cars prove to be the main contributor to that increase, followed by public transport. More focus should be directed toward modal shift strategies, which take into account not only the number of journeys but also the distance traveled. These contributions have potential applications in the assessment of current and future urban transport policies related to low-carbon urban transportation.

Phase transitions in number theory: from the birthday problem to Sidon sets

In this work, we show how number theoretical problems can be fruitfully approached with the tools of statistical physics. We focus on g-Sidon sets, which describe sequences of integers whose pairwise sums are different, and propose a random decision problem which addresses the probability of a random set of k integers to be g-Sidon. First, we provide numerical evidence showing that there is a crossover between satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases which converts to an abrupt phase transition in a properly defined thermodynamic limit. Initially assuming independence, we then develop a mean-field theory for the g-Sidon decision problem. We further improve the mean-field theory, which is only qualitatively correct, by incorporating deviations from independence, yielding results in good quantitative agreement with the numerics for both finite systems and in the thermodynamic limit. Connections between the generalized birthday problem in probability theory, the number theory of Sidon sets and the properties of q-Potts models in condensed matter physics are briefly discussed

An universal system to de-orbit satellites at end of life

A 3-year Project financed by the European Commission is aimed at developing a universal system to de-orbit satellites at their end of life, as a fundamental contribution to limit the increase of debris in the Space environment. The operational system involves a conductive tapetether left bare to establish anodic contact with the ambient plasma as a giant Langmuir probe. The Project will size the three disparate dimensions of a tape for a selected de-orbit mission and determine scaling laws to allow system design for a general mission. Starting at the second year, mission selection is carried out while developing numerical codes to implement control laws on tether dynamics in/off the orbital plane; performing numerical simulations and plasma chamber measurements on tether-plasma interaction; and completing design of subsystems: electronejecting plasma contactor, power module, interface elements, deployment mechanism, and tether-tape/end-mass. This will be followed by subsystems manufacturing and by currentcollection, free-fall, and hypervelocity impact tests.

The Interior City Infinity and Concavity in the No-Stop City (1970-1971)

In the late 60s it had become clear how the environment technification had allowed some typologies (supermarkets, car parks, factories) to reach potentially unlimited built depths becoming, therefore, independent from the outside. The No-Stop City is born from a very simple idea: to extend this technification to the totality of built reality encompassing, not only almost all functions, but ultimately, the whole city. This operation has paradoxical effects: as architecture grows, it loses most of the features that have traditionally defined it. A dissolution by hypertrophy that gives rise to an homogeneous, concave and potentially infinite space. But beyond the pure technical feasibility, there are two key influences, seemingly contradictory, that explain this endeavor for an interior and endless city: Marxism and Pop Art. The project is, in many senses, a built manifesto reflecting the militancy of the group members within the Italian Marxism. But it is also the embodiment of the groups declared interest in Pop Art, popular culture and mass society. The cross-influence of communism and consumerism explains this "quantitative utopia" in which the society and the factory, the production and consumption, would match. A city based on the centrality of consumer products and the subsequent loss of prominence of architecture, in which the urban phenomenon, while spreading endlessly over territory, ignoring its rural exteriority, dissolves the home as a sphere of privacy, ignoring its domestic interiority. A project, also in the wake of Marshall McLuhan, that illustrates like few others the conversion of the urbane into a virtually omnipresent "condition" and that still interrogates us with questions that are, on the other hand, eternal: What is a building? What is a city?

PIC computation of electron current collection to a moving bare tether in the mesothermal condition

In tethered satellite technology, it is important to estimate how many electrons a spacecraft can collect from its ambient plasma by a bare electrodynamic tether. The analysis is however very difficult because of the small but significant Geo-magnetic field and the spacecraft’s relative motion to both ions and electrons. The object of our work is the development of a numerical method, for this purpose. Particle-In-Cell (PIC) method, for the calculation of electron current to a positive bare tether moving at orbital velocity in the ionosphere, i.e. in a flowing magnetized plasma under Maxwellian collisionless conditions. In a PIC code, a number of particles are distributed in phase space and the computational domain has a grid on which Poisson equation is solved for field quantities. The code uses the quasi-neutrality condition to solve for the local potential at points in the plasma which coincide with the computational outside boundary. The quasi-neutrality condition imposes ne - ni on the boundary. The Poisson equation is solved in such a way that the presheath region can be captured in the computation. Results show that the collected current is higher than the Orbital Motion Limit (OML) theory. The OML current is the upper limit of current collection under steady collisionless unmagnetized conditions. In this work, we focus on the flowing effects of plasma as a possible cause of the current enhancement. A deficit electron density due to the flowing effects has been worked and removed by introducing adiabatic electron trapping into our model.

Phenotypic plasticity facilitates resistance to climate change in a highly variable environment

Increased summer drought will exacerbate the regeneration of many tree species at their lower latitudinal and altitudinal distribution limits. In vulnerable habitats, introduction of more drought-tolerant provenances or species is currently considered to accelerate tree species migration and facilitate forest persistence. Trade-offs between drought adaptation and growth plasticity might, however, limit the effectiveness of assisted migration, especially if introductions focus on provenances or species from different climatic regions. We tested in a common garden experiment the performance of Pinus sylvestris seedlings from the continental Central Alps under increased temperatures and extended spring and/or summer drought, and compared seedling emergence, survival and biomass allocation to that of P. sylvestris and closely related Pinus nigra from a Mediterranean seed source. Soil heating had only minor effects on seedling performance but high spring precipitation doubled the number of continental P. sylvestris seedlings present after the summer drought. At the same time, twice as many seedlings of the Mediterranean than the continental P. sylvestris provenance were present, which was due to both higher emergence and lower mortality under dry conditions. Both P. sylvestris provenances allocated similar amounts of biomass to roots when grown under low summer precipitation. Mediterranean seedlings, however, revealed lower phenotypic plasticity than continental seedlings under high precipitation, which might limit their competitive ability in continental Alpine forests in non-drought years. By contrast, high variability in the response of individual seedlings to summer drought indicates the potential of continental P. sylvestris provenances to adapt to changing environmental conditions.