Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: the Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates. BioScience.

Global environmental changes threaten ecosystems and cause significant alterations to the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. We provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on European diversity of vertebrates and their associated pest control services. We modeled the distributions of the species that provide this service using ensembles of forecasts from bioclimatic envelope models and then used their results to generate maps of potential species richness among vertebrate providers of pest control services. We assessed how potential richness of pest control providers would change according to different climate and greenhouse emissions scenarios. We found that potential richness of pest control providers was likely to face substantial reductions, especially in southern European countries that had economies highly dependent on agricultural yields. In much of central and northern Europe, where countries had their economies less dependent on agriculture, climate change was likely to benefit pest control providers

CO2-response function of radiation use efficiency in rice for climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.

Birth weight, weight change, and blood pressure during childhood and adolescence: a school-based multiple cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association between birth weight, weight change, and current blood pressure (BP) across the entire age-span of childhood and adolescence in large school-based cohorts in the Seychelles, an island state in the African region. METHODS: Three cohorts were analyzed: 1004 children examined at age 5.5 and 9.1 years, 1886 children at 9.1 and 12.5, and 1575 children at 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Birth and 1-year anthropometric data were gathered from medical files. The outcome was BP at age 5.5, 9.1, 12.5 or 15.5 years, respectively. Conditional linear regression analysis was used to estimate the relative contribution of changes in weight (expressed in z-score) during different age periods on BP. All analyses were adjusted for height. RESULTS: At all ages, current BP was strongly associated with current weight. Birth weight was not significantly associated with current BP. Upon adjustment for current weight, the association between birth weight and current BP tended to become negative. Conditional linear regression analyses indicated that changes in weight during successive age periods since birth contributed substantially to current BP at all ages. The strength of the association between weight change and current BP increased throughout successive age periods. CONCLUSION: Weight changes during any age period since birth have substantial impact on BP during childhood and adolescence, with BP being more responsive to recent than earlier weight changes.

National oral history - Time of change project

Reviews

Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

Institutional change and the evolution of the regulatory state: evidence from the Swiss case

This article examines institutional change in a case that was expected to be particularly resilient but showed considerable structural transformation: the institutionalization of the regulatory state in Switzerland. This process is illustrated through the establishment of independent regulatory agencies (IRAs) in four areas: banking and finance; telecommunications; electricity; and competition. The theoretical framework developed by Streeck, Thelen and Mahoney is used to explore hypotheses about the modes of institutional change, with the methodology of diachronic within-case study. Results confirm only partially the expectations, pointing to layering and displacement as the prevalent modes of change. The concluding part discusses the type and the direction of change as additional explanatory factors.

Legal Issues for FOSS-based Supply Chain Management ¿ Black Duck Software

Open source is typically outside of normal commercial software procurement processes.The Challenges.Increasingly diverse and distributed set of development resources.Little/no visibility into the origins of the software.Supply Chain Comparison: Hardware vs Software.Open source has revolutionized the mobile and device landscape, other industries will follow.Supply chain management techniques from hardware are useful for managing software.SPDX A standard format for communicating a software Bill of Materials across the supply chain.Effective management and control requires training, tools, processes and standards.

Legal issues in promoting FOSS in R+D projects - Policy, Organisation and Management

Creating and using FLOSS in R+D projects raises several legal issues, which need to be managed as soon as possible - preferably during the project planning stage. Challenges in the areas of project structure and policy, licenses and licensing, exploitation strategies, community management, and FLOSS-friendliness in general all have their legal aspects, which are commented here. Some recommendations are made for assisting in the use of FLOSS in R+D projects, especially in multiple party consortiums.

Contracting with free software communities

Industry and large Agencies needs ¿agile¿ programming resources, to reinforce their own development staff and take advantage of innovative approaches produced by ¿fresh minds¿ all over the world. At the same time they may be reluctant to engage in classical software development call for tenders and contracts. Such contracts are often ¿trusted¿ by large ICT firms, which will deliver according to their own rigid frameworks (often based on alliances with proprietary software vendors), may propose comfortable quality assurances, but will cover their (real) risks and liability with high contingency costs and will charge for any change request in case the original specifications have not fixed all possible issues. Introducing FLOSS in business implies a new contracting philosophy, based on incentives rather than penalties and liability. Based on 2011 experience with a large Space Agency, Patrice-Emmanuel Schmitz pictures the needed legal instruments for a novel approach.

Timing of Capacity Change: Models for Capital Intensive Industry

The suitable timing of capacity investments is a remarkable issue especially in capital intensive industries. Despite its importance, fairly few studies have been published on the topic. In the present study models for the timing of capacity change in capital intensive industry are developed. The study considers mainly the optimal timing of single capacity changes. The review of earlier research describes connections between cost, capacity and timing literature, and empirical examples are used to describe the starting point of the study and to test the developed models. The study includes four models, which describe the timing question from different perspectives. The first model, which minimizes unit costs, has been built for capacity expansion and replacement situations. It is shown that the optimal timing of an investment can be presented with the capacity and cost advantage ratios. After the unit cost minimization model the view is extended to the direction of profit maximization. The second model states that early investments are preferable if the change of fixed costs is small compared to the change of the contribution margin. The third model is a numerical discounted cash flow model, which emphasizes the roles of start-up time, capacity utilization rate and value of waiting as drivers of the profitable timing of a project. The last model expands the view from project level to company level and connects the flexibility of assets and cost structures to the timing problem. The main results of the research are the solutions of the models and analysis or simulations done with the models. The relevance and applicability of the results are verified by evaluating the logic of the models and by numerical cases.

Family interactions in IVF families: change over the transition to parenthood

Objective: This article presents a study of the change over time in the family interactions of couples who conceived through in-vitro fertilisation (IVF). Background: Observational methods are rarely used to study family interactions in families who used assisted reproductive techniques, but these methods are crucial for taking account of the communication that occurs in interactions with infants. Methods: Thirty-one couples expecting their first child were seen during the fifth month of pregnancy and when the child was nine months old. Family interactions were recorded in pre- and postnatal versions of the Lausanne Trilogue Play situation. Measures of marital satisfaction and parent-to-foetus/baby attachment or 'bonding' were also used to assess family relational dynamics. Results: Results showed that family alliance, marital satisfaction and parental attachment scores in the IVF sample were all similar to or higher than those in the reference sample during pregnancy. However, at nine months postnatally, the family alliance scores were lower. While marital satisfaction decreased over the period and parent-baby attachment increased, the family alliance scores were unstable, as no association was observed between the pre- and postnatal scores. In addition, neither prenatal marital satisfaction nor parent-foetus attachment predicted the postnatal family alliance. Conclusion: The change in the family alliance over the transition to parenthood appears to be specific to our IVF sample. Given that postnatal family functioning could not be predicted by prenatal family functioning, our observational data underline the importance of offering postnatal support to these families.

Soins intégrés: comment accompagner un changement de culture [Integrated care: how to support a culture change?].

The primary care center at Lausanne University Hospital trains residents to new models of integrated care. The future GPs discover new forms of collaboration with nurses, pharmacists or social workers. The collaboration model includes seeing patients together or delegating care to other providers, with the aim of improving the efficiency of a patient-centered care approach. The article includes examples of integrated care in consultation for travelers, victims of violence, pharmacist medication adherence counseling, medicosocial team work for alcohol use disorders and nurse practitioners' primary care for asylum seekers.