938 resultados para Lead time and dry period


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BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

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Buildings structures and surfaces are explicitly being used to grow plants, and these “urban plantings” are generally designed for aesthetic value. Urban plantings also have the potential to contribute significant “ecological values” by increasing urban habitat for animals such as arthropods and by increasing plant productivity. In this study, we evaluated how the provision of these additional ecological values is affected by plant species richness; the availability of essential resources for plants, such as water, light, space; and soil characteristics. We sampled 33 plantings located on the exterior of three buildings in the urban center of Brisbane, Australia (subtropical climatic region) over 2, 6 week sampling periods characterized by different temperature and rainfall conditions. Plant cover was estimated as a surrogate for productivity as destructive sampling of biomass was not possible. We measured weekly light levels (photosynthetically active radiation), plant CO2 assimilation, soil CO2 efflux, and arthropod diversity. Differences in plant cover were best explained by a three-way interaction of plant species richness, management water regime and sampling period. As the richness of plant species increased in a planter, productivity and total arthropod richness also increased significantly—likely due to greater habitat heterogeneity and quality. Overall we found urban plantings can provide additional ecological values if essential resources are maintained within a planter such as water, light and soil temperature. Diverse urban plantings that are managed with these principles in mind can contribute to the attraction of diverse arthropod communities, and lead to increased plant productivity within a dense urban context.

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New digital media surrounds us. Little is known, however, about the influence of technology devices such as tablets (e.g. iPads) and smart phones on young children’s lives in home and school settings, and what it means for them throughout their schooling and beyond. Most research to date has focused on children aged six years and older, and much less (with a few exceptions) on preschool-aged children. This article draws on parent interviews to show how family members engage with technology as part of the flow of everyday life. Only time and increased understandings of everyday practices will tell the real values and scope of using digital media.

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This is a catalogue essay for Mark Shorter's exhibition "Dry Gulch" held at Boxcopy, Brisbane, in 2014. "Dry Gulch is a durational performance and installation in which the artist, Mark Shorter, occupies the pitch-­‐black gallery space for the opening hours of the exhibition. While drawing on the vocabulary of 1970s conceptual performance art (think Vito Acconci, Chris Burden, Marina Abramovic et al.), it is also an exhibition specifically of its time and its place. It probes and, at times, illuminates (pun intended) some of the dark corners of subjective experiences in a contemporary context typically swamped by distractions and saturated with templates for self-­‐actualisation...."

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Background Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.

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Background Most patients with minor stroke are discharged directly home from acute care, under the assumption that little will be required in the way of adaptation and adjustment because informal caregivers will manage the stroke recovery process. We explored male patients with minor stroke and their wife-caregivers' perceptions of factors affecting quality of life and caregiver strain encountered during the first year post-discharge. Methods Data were obtained from responses to two open-ended questions, part of quality of life and caregiver strain scales administered to participants in a larger descriptive study. Conventional content analysis was used to assess narrative accounts of living with minor stroke provided by 26 male patients and their wife-caregivers over a period of 1-year post-discharge. Results Two major themes that emerged from these data were 'being vulnerable' and 'realization'. Subthemes that arose within the vulnerability theme included changes to patients' masculine image and wife-caregivers' assumption of a hyper-vigilance role. In terms of 'realization' patients and their wife-caregivers shared 'loss' as well as 'changing self and relationships'. Patients in this study focused primarily on their physical recovery and their perceptions of necessary changes. Wife-caregivers were actively involved in managing the day-to-day demands that stroke placed on individual, family and social roles. Conclusions We conclude that patients and wife-caregivers expend considerable time and energy reestablishing control of their lives following minor stroke in an attempt to incorporate changes to self and their relationship into the fabric of their lives.

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Dozens of countries have enacted mandatory reporting laws in various forms to respond to child abuse and neglect. Other countries including England are currently considering whether to introduce them, and if so in what form. It is important for policymakers, practitioners and researchers to understand these laws’ background, nature and purpose. This chapter outlines the origins and provenance of the first mandatory reporting laws; discusses their nature; describes major developments over time; and identifies some major effects and their consequences. It is shown that the laws are a heterogeneous, organic, flexible mechanism enabling social intervention where otherwise such intervention is severely compromised or impossible. Their primary function is to comprise but one aspect of a multifaceted child welfare system by identifying cases of serious maltreatment which would not otherwise come to light: sexual abuse and severe physical abuse are paradigm examples. The essential role of these laws is therefore primarily a tertiary aspect of a public health model, rather than a purely preventative strategy. Mandatory reporting laws are made by each specific jurisdiction according to its preferred design and function within its socio-political system. There is a spectrum of different approaches from which a jurisdiction can choose: they can apply to a broad or a narrow range of reporter groups, a broad or a narrow range of types of maltreatment, and a broad or a narrow range of instances where abuse or neglect occurs.

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Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.