Perfluorinated compounds in environmental matrices of Lake Victoria Gulf

ABSTRACT One of the major ecological challenges on Lake Victoria resources is the existence of “hot spots”, caused by human waste, urban runoff, and industrial effluents. The lake is tending towards eutrophication which is attributed to the increasing human population in its watershed. A report of the levels of perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoic acid in environmental matrices of Lake Victoria is presented, and the management implication of perfluorinated compounds and similar potential organic pollutants examined. Two widely consumed and economically important fish species namely Lates niloticus (Nile perch) and Oreochromis niloticus (Nile tilapia) were obtained from Winam gulf of Lake Victoria, Kenya, and analysed for perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoic acid in muscles and liver using liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectroscopy. Variability in the concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid or perfluorooctane sulfonate in river waters (range perfluorooctanoic acid 0.4 – 96.4 ng/L and perfluorooctane sulfonate < 0.4 – 13.2 ng/L) was higher than for Lake waters (range perfluorooctanoic acid 0.4 – 11.7 ng/L and perfluorooctane sulfonate < 0.4 – 2.5 ng/L respectively). Significant correlations were tested between perfluorinated compounds levels in sediments, fish and water. Wastewater treatment plants and other anthropogenic sources have been identified as significant sources or pathways for the introduction of perfluoroalkyl compounds into Lake Victoria ecosystem. In this study, elevated concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate was found in two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Kisumu, City of Kenya. An alternative analytical method to liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy for analysis of perfluorocarboxylic acids in abiotic and biotic matrices where high concentrations are expected is also presented. Derivatisation of the acid group to form a suitable alkyl ester provided a suitable compound for mass spectroscopy detection coupled to gas chromatography instrumental analysis. The acid is esterified by an alkyl halide i.e benzyl bromide as the alkylating agent for Perfluorocarboxylic acids quantification. The study also involved degradability measurements of emerging perfluorinated surfactants substitutes. The stability of the substitutes of perfluorinated surfactants was tested by employing advanced oxidation processes, followed by conventional tests, among them an automated method based on the manometric respirometry test and standardized fix bed bioreactor [FBBR] on perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS), a fluoroethylene polymer, fluorosurfactant (Zonyl), two fluoraliphaticesters (NOVEC ™ FC4430 and NOVEC ™ FC4432) and 10-(trifluoromethoxy) decane-sulfonate. Most of these emmerging surfactants are well-established in the market and have been used in several applications as alternatives to PFOS and PFOA based surfactants. The results of this study can be used as pioneer information for further studies on the sources, behaviour and fate of PFOA and PFOS and other related compounds in both abiotic and biota compartments of Lake Victoria and other lakes. Further an overview in degradation of emerging perfluorinated compounds substitutes is presented. Contribution in method development especially for acid group based fluorosurfactants is presented. The data obtained in this study can particularly be considered when formulating policies and management measures for preservation and sustainability of Lake Victoria resources.

Palaeo wind system reconstruction of the last glacial period over Europe, using high resolution proxy data and model-data-comparison

The atmosphere is a global influence on the movement of heat and humidity between the continents, and thus significantly affects climate variability. Information about atmospheric circulation are of major importance for the understanding of different climatic conditions. Dust deposits from maar lakes and dry maars from the Eifel Volcanic Field (Germany) are therefore used as proxy data for the reconstruction of past aeolian dynamics.rnrnIn this thesis past two sediment cores from the Eifel region are examined: the core SM3 from Lake Schalkenmehren and the core DE3 from the Dehner dry maar. Both cores contain the tephra of the Laacher See eruption, which is dated to 12,900 before present. Taken together the cores cover the last 60,000 years: SM3 the Holocene and DE3 the marine isotope stages MIS-3 and MIS-2, respectively. The frequencies of glacial dust storm events and their paleo wind direction are detected by high resolution grain size and provenance analysis of the lake sediments. Therefore two different methods are applied: geochemical measurements of the sediment using µXRF-scanning and the particle analysis method RADIUS (rapid particle analysis of digital images by ultra-high-resolution scanning of thin sections).rnIt is shown that single dust layers in the lake sediment are characterized by an increased content of aeolian transported carbonate particles. The limestone-bearing Eifel-North-South zone is the most likely source for the carbonate rich aeolian dust in the lake sediments of the Dehner dry maar. The dry maar is located on the western side of the Eifel-North-South zone. Thus, carbonate rich aeolian sediment is most likely to be transported towards the Dehner dry maar within easterly winds. A methodology is developed which limits the detection to the aeolian transported carbonate particles in the sediment, the RADIUS-carbonate module.rnrnIn summary, during the marine isotope stage MIS-3 the storm frequency and the east wind frequency are both increased in comparison to MIS-2. These results leads to the suggestion that atmospheric circulation was affected by more turbulent conditions during MIS-3 in comparison to the more stable atmospheric circulation during the full glacial conditions of MIS-2.rnThe results of the investigations of the dust records are finally evaluated in relation a study of atmospheric general circulation models for a comprehensive interpretation. Here, AGCM experiments (ECHAM3 and ECHAM4) with different prescribed SST patterns are used to develop a synoptic interpretation of long-persisting east wind conditions and of east wind storm events, which are suggested to lead to an enhanced accumulation of sediment being transported by easterly winds to the proxy site of the Dehner dry maar.rnrnThe basic observations made on the proxy record are also illustrated in the 10 m-wind vectors in the different model experiments under glacial conditions with different prescribed sea surface temperature patterns. Furthermore, the analysis of long-persisting east wind conditions in the AGCM data shows a stronger seasonality under glacial conditions: all the different experiments are characterized by an increase of the relative importance of the LEWIC during spring and summer. The different glacial experiments consistently show a shift from a long-lasting high over the Baltic Sea towards the NW, directly above the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, together with contemporary enhanced westerly circulation over the North Atlantic.rnrnThis thesis is a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns during the last glacial period. It has been possible to reconstruct important elements of the glacial paleo climate in Central Europe. While the proxy data from sediment cores lead to a binary signal of the wind direction changes (east versus west wind), a synoptic interpretation using atmospheric circulation models is successful. This shows a possible distribution of high and low pressure areas and thus the direction and strength of wind fields which have the capacity to transport dust. In conclusion, the combination of numerical models, to enhance understanding of processes in the climate system, with proxy data from the environmental record is the key to a comprehensive approach to paleo climatic reconstruction.rn

Ancient Greek harbours used as geo-archives for palaeotsunami research : case studies from Krane (Cefalonia), Lechaion (Gulf of Corinth) and Kyllini (Peloponnese)

Since historical times, coastal areas throughout the eastern Mediterranean are exposed to tsunami hazard. For many decades the knowledge about palaeotsunamis was solely based on historical accounts. However, results from timeline analyses reveal different characteristics affecting the quality of the dataset (i.e. distribution of data, temporal thinning backward of events, local periodization phenomena) that emphasize the fragmentary character of the historical data. As an increasing number of geo-scientific studies give convincing examples of well dated tsunami signatures not reported in catalogues, the non-existing record is a major problem to palaeotsunami research. While the compilation of historical data allows a first approach in the identification of areas vulnerable to tsunamis, it must not be regarded as reliable for hazard assessment. Considering the increasing economic significance of coastal regions (e.g. for mass tourism) and the constantly growing coastal population, our knowledge on the local, regional and supraregional tsunami hazard along Mediterranean coasts has to be improved. For setting up a reliable tsunami risk assessment and developing risk mitigation strategies, it is of major importance (i) to identify areas under risk and (ii) to estimate the intensity and frequency of potential events. This approach is most promising when based on the analysis of palaeotsunami research seeking to detect areas of high palaeotsunami hazard, to calculate recurrence intervals and to document palaeotsunami destructiveness in terms of wave run-up, inundation and long-term coastal change. Within the past few years, geo-scientific studies on palaeotsunami events provided convincing evidence that throughout the Mediterranean ancient harbours were subject to strong tsunami-related disturbance or destruction. Constructed to protect ships from storm and wave activity, harbours provide especially sheltered and quiescent environments and thus turned out to be valuable geo-archives for tsunamigenic high-energy impacts on coastal areas. Directly exposed to the Hellenic Trench and extensive local fault systems, coastal areas in the Ionian Sea and the Gulf of Corinth hold a considerably high risk for tsunami events, respectively.Geo-scientific and geoarcheaological studies carried out in the environs of the ancient harbours of Krane (Cefalonia Island), Lechaion (Corinth, Gulf of Corinth) and Kyllini (western Peloponnese) comprised on-shore and near-shore vibracoring and subsequent sedimentological, geochemical and microfossil analyses of the recovered sediments. Geophysical methods like electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar were applied in order to detect subsurface structures and to verify stratigraphical patterns derived from vibracores over long distances. The overall geochronological framework of each study area is based on radiocarbon dating of biogenic material and age determination of diagnostic ceramic fragments. Results presented within this study provide distinct evidence of multiple palaeotsunami landfalls for the investigated areas. Tsunami signatures encountered in the environs of Krane, Lechaion and Kyllini include (i) coarse-grained allochthonous marine sediments intersecting silt-dominated quiescent harbour deposits and/or shallow marine environments, (ii) disturbed microfaunal assemblages and/or (iii) distinct geochemical fingerprints as well as (iv) geo-archaeological destruction layers and (v) extensive units of beachrock-type calcarenitic tsunamites. For Krane, geochronological data yielded termini ad or post quem (maximum ages) for tsunami event generations dated to 4150 ± 60 cal BC, ~ 3200 ± 110 cal BC, ~ 650 ± 110 cal BC, and ~ 930 ± 40 cal AD, respectively. Results for Lechaion suggest that the harbour was hit by strong tsunami impacts in the 8th-6th century BC, the 1st-2nd century AD and in the 6th century AD. At Kyllini, the harbour site was affected by tsunami impact in between the late 7th and early 4th cent. BC and between the 4th and 6th cent. AD. In case of Lechaion and Kyllini, the final destruction of the harbour facilities also seems to be related to the tsunami impact. Comparing the tsunami signals obtained for each study areas with geo-scientific data from palaeotsunami events from other sites indicates that the investigated harbour sites represent excellent geo-archives for supra-regional mega-tsunamis.

Palaeotsunami imprints in the near-coast sedimentary records of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis (Peloponnese, Greece)

From historical accounts it is well-known that the coasts of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis (southern and eastern Peloponnese, Greece) have been repeatedly affected by tsunamis during historical times. It is assumed that these palaeotsunamis left sedimentological and geomorphological traces in the geological record which are still detectable these days. As both gulfs are located within one of the seismically most active regions in whole western Eurasia in particular the nearby Hellenic Trench is regarded as the main trigger for tsunami generation. Against this background, selected near-coast sedimentary archives were studied by means of sedimentological, geomorphological, geophysical, geochemical and microfaunal investigations in order to detect signatures of Holocene palaeotsunamigenic activity. The investigations revealed allochthonous sediment layers featuring distinctive sedimentary characteristics of marine high-energy event deposits in most of the investigated study areas. In order to differentiate between the geomorphodynamic driving mechanisms for the deposition of the associated marine high-energy event layers, a multi-method approach was used. The detected high-energy marine deposits are suggested to be of tsunamigenic origin. Radiocarbon dating results allowed establishing local event geo-chronostratigraphies and correlations on a local and regional scale as well as correlations with already described palaeotsunami findings on a supra-regional scale. The geochronological dataset attests repeated tsunamigenic activity at least since the 5th millennium BC up to the 17th century AD. For the studied areas in southeastern Lakonia up to four palaeotsunami event generations were identified, for central Lakonia three and for the investigated areas around the Argolis Gulf also up to four. Comparing the findings with literature data, chronological correlations were found with palaeotsunami deposits detected in near-coast geological archives of Akarnania, of the southwestern, the western and northwestern Peloponnese, with event deposits found on Crete and on the Ionian Islands of Cefalonia and Lefkada as well as with findings from southeastern Sicily (Italy) and Cesarea (Israel). By the identification of multiple palaeotsunami event layers, disturbing autochthonous near-coast sedimentary records of the Gulfs of Lakonia and Argolis during the last seven millennia, a significant tsunami frequency is attested for these regions.

Active processes, morphology, and dynamics of icy debris fans: Landform evolution along rapidly degrading escarpments in alpine regions undergoing recent deglaciation

In the past few decades the impacts of climate warming have been significant in alpine glaciated regions. Many valley glaciers formerly linked as distributary glaciers to high-level icecaps have decoupled at their icefalls, exposing major escarpments and generating a suite of dynamic landforrns dominated by mass wasting. Ice-dominated landforms, here termed icy debris fans, develop rapidly by ice avalanching, rockfall, and icy debris flow. Field-based reconnaissance studies at two alpine settings, the Wrangell Mountains of Alaska and the Southern Alps of New Zealand, provide a preliminary morphogenetic model of spatial and temporal evolution of icy debris fans in a range of alpine settings. The influence of these processes on landform evolution is largely unrecognized in the literature dealing with post-glacial landform adjustment known as the paraglacial. A better understanding of these dynamic processes will be increasingly important because of the extreme geohazards characterizing these areas. Our field studies show that after glacier decoupling, icy debris fans begin to form along the base of bedrock escarpments at the mouths of catchments and prograde over valley glaciers. The presence of a distinct catchment, apex, and fan morphology distinguishes these landforms from other landforms common in periglacial hillslope settings receiving abundant clastic debris and ice. Ice avalanching is the most abundant process involved in icy debris fan formation. Fans developed below weakly incised catchments are dominated by ice avalanching and are composed primarily of ice with minor lithic detritus. Typically, avalanches fall into the fan catchments where sediments transform into grainflows that flow onto the fans. Once on the fans, avalanche deposits ablate rapidly, flattening and concentrating lithic fragments at the surface. Icy debris fans may become thick enough to become glaciers with splay crevasse systems. Fans developed below larger, more complex catchments are composed of higher proportions of lithic detritus resulting from temporary storage of ice and lithic detritus deposits within the catchment. Episodic outbursts of meltwater from the icecap may mix with the stored sediments and mobilize icy debris flows (mixture of ice and lithic clasts) onto the fans. Our observations indicate that the entire evolutionary cycle of icy debris fans probably occurs during an early paraglacial interval (i.e., decades to 100 years). Observations comparing avalanche frequency, volume, and fan morphologic evolution at the Alaska site between 2006 and 2010 illustrate complex response between icy debris fans even within the same cirque - where one fan may be growing while others are downwasting because of differences in ice supply controlled by their respective catchments and icecap contributions. As ice supply from the icecap diminishes through time, icy debris fans rapidly downwaste and eventually evolve into talus cones that receive occasional but ephemeral ice avalanches.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programs in rural Southern Africa

Data on outcomes of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in rural sub-Saharan African are scarce. We describe early losses and long-term outcomes in 6 rural programs in Southern Africa with limited access to viral load monitoring and second-line ART.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

On the relationship between Nd isotopic composition and ocean overturning circulation in idealized freshwater discharge events

Using a cost-efficient climate model, the effect of changes in overturning circulation on neodymium isotopic composition,ϵNd, is systematically examined for the first time. Idealized sequences of abrupt climate changes are induced by the application of periodic freshwater fluxes to the North Atlantic (NA) and the Southern Ocean (SO), thus mainly affecting either the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) or Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Variations in ϵNd reflect weakening and strengthening of the formation of NADW and AABW, changes in ϵNdof end-members are relatively small. Relationships betweenϵNd and the strength of NADW or AABW are more pronounced for AABW than for NADW. Atlantic patterns of variations in ϵNd systematically differ between NA and SO experiments. Additionally, the signature of changes in ϵNd in the Atlantic and the Pacific is alike in NA but opposite in SO experiments. Discrimination between NA and SO experiments is therefore possible based on the Atlantic pattern of variations in ϵNd and the contrariwise behavior of ϵNd in the Atlantic and the Pacific. In further experiments we examined the effect of variations in magnitudes of particle export fluxes. Within the examined range, and although settling particles represent the only sink of Nd, their effects on ϵNd are relatively small. Our results confirm the large potential of ϵNd as a paleocirculation tracer but also indicate its limitations of quantitative reconstructions of changes in the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation.

Climate and human impact during the past 2000 years as recorded in the Lagunas de Yala, Jujuy, northwestern Argentina

210Pb, 137Cs and 14C dated sediments of two late Holocene landslide lakes in the Provincial Park Lagunas de Yala (Laguna Rodeo, Laguna Comedero, 24°06′S, 65°30′W, 2100 m asl, northwestern Argentina) reveal a high-resolution multi-proxy data set of climate change and human impact for the past ca. 2000 years. Comparison of the lake sediment data set for the 20th century (sediment mass accumulation rates MARs, pollen spectra, nutrient and charcoal fluxes) with independent dendroecological data from the catchment (fire scars, tree growth) and long regional precipitation series (from 1934 onwards) show that (1) the lake sediment data set is internally highly consistent and compares well with independent data sets, (2) the chronology of the sediment is reliable, (3) large fires (1940s, 1983/1984–1989) as documented in the local fire scar frequency are recorded in the charcoal flux to the lake sediments and coincide with low wet-season precipitation rates (e.g., 1940s, 1983/1984) and/or high interannual precipitation variability (late 1940s), and (4) the regional increase in precipitation after 1970 is recorded in an increase in the MARs (L. Rodeo from 100 to 390 mg cm−2 yr−1) and in an increase in fern spores reflecting wet vegetation. The most significant change in MARs and nutrient fluxes (Corg and P) of the past 2000 years is observed with the transition from the Inca Empire to the Spanish Conquest around 1600 AD. Compared with the pre-17th century conditions, MARs increased by a factor of ca. 5 to >8 (to 800 +130, −280 mg cm−2 yr−1), PO4 fluxes increased by a factor of 7, and Corg fluxes by a factor of 10.5 for the time between 1640 and 1930 AD. 17th to 19th century MARs and nutrient fluxes also exceed 20th century values. Excess Pb deposition as indicated by a significant increase in Pb/Zr and Pb/Rb ratios in the sediments after the 1950s coincides with a rapid expansion of the regional mining industry. Excess Pb is interpreted as atmospheric deposition and direct human impact due to Pb smelting.

Sex determination and temperature-induced sex differentiation in three natural populations of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) adapted to extreme temperature conditions

As a species of major interest for aquaculture, the sex determination system (SDS) of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, has been widely investigated. In this species, sex determination is considered to be governed by the interactions between a complex system of genetic sex determination factors (GSD) and the influence of temperature (TSD) during a critical period. Previous studies were exclusively carried out on domestic stocks with the genetic and maintenance limitations associated. Given the wide distribution and adaptation potential of the Nile tilapia, we investigated under controlled conditions the sex determination system of natural populations adapted to three extreme thermal regimes: stable extreme environments in Ethiopia, either cold temperatures in a highland lake (Lake Koka), or warm temperatures in hydrothermal springs (Lake Metahara), and an environment with large seasonal variations in Ghana (Kpandu, Lake Volta). The sex ratio analysis was conducted on progenies reared under constant basal (27 degrees C) or high (36 degrees C) temperatures during the 30 days following yolk-sac resorption. Sex ratios of the progenies reared at standard temperature suggest that the three populations share a similar complex GSD system based on a predominant male heterogametic factor with additional influences of polymorphism at this locus and/or action of minor factors. The three populations presented a clear thermosensitivity of sex differentiation, with large variations in the intensity of response depending on the parents. This confirms the presence of genotype-environment interactions in TSD of Nile tilapia. Furthermore the existence of naturally sex-reversed individuals is strongly suggested in two populations (Kpandu and Koka). However, it was not possible here to infer if the sex-inversion resulted from minor genetic factors and/or environmental influences. The present study demonstrated for the first time the conservation of a complex SDS combining polymorphic GSD and TSD components in natural populations of Nile tilapia. We discuss the evolutionary implications of our findings and highlight the importance of field investigations of sex determination. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reflection, refraction, and rejection : copper smelting heritage and the execution of environmental policy

This dissertation examines the global technological and environmental history of copper smelting and the conflict that developed between historic preservation and environmental remediation at major copper smelting sites in the United States after their productive periods ended. Part I of the dissertation is a synthetic overview of the history of copper smelting and its environmental impact. After reviewing the basic metallurgy of copper ores, the dissertation contains successive chapters on the history of copper smelting to 1640, culminating in the so-called German, or Continental, processing system; on the emergence of the rival Welsh system during the British industrial revolution; and on the growth of American dominance in copper production the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The latter chapter focuses, in particular, on three of the most important early American copper districts: Michigan’s Keweenaw Peninsula, Tennessee’s Copper Basin, and Butte-Anaconda, Montana. As these three districts went into decline and ultimately out of production, they left a rich industrial heritage and significant waste and pollution problems generated by increasingly more sophisticated technologies capable of commercially processing steadily growing volumes of decreasingly rich ores. Part II of the dissertation looks at the conflict between historic preservation and environmental remediation that emerged locally and nationally in copper districts as they went into decline and eventually ceased production. Locally, former copper mining communities often split between those who wished to commemorate a region’s past importance and develop heritage tourism, and local developers who wished to clear up and clean out old industrial sites for other purposes. Nationally, Congress passed laws in the 1960s and 1970s mandating the preservation of historical resources (National Historic Preservation Act) and laws mandating the cleanup of contaminated landscapes (CERCLA, or Superfund), objectives sometimes in conflict – especially in the case of copper smelting sites. The dissertation devotes individual chapters to the conflicts that developed between environmental remediation, particularly involving the Environmental Protection Agency and the heritage movement in the Tennessee, Montana, and Michigan copper districts. A concluding chapter provides a broad model to illustrate the relationship between industrial decline, federal environmental remediation activities, and the growth of heritage consciousness in former copper mining and smelting areas, analyzes why the outcome varied in the three areas, and suggests methods for dealing with heritage-remediation issues to minimize conflict and maximize heritage preservation.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

The Amplifier - v. 7, no. 15

In this issue...Camera Club, Magma, Hauser Lake, Newman Club, Montana Central Railway, Cal Strobel, blood donations, Peace Corps, Paul Harvey, Pan American Oil Company

High-resolution summer temperature reconstruction from Lake Silvaplana based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy

Annually laminated (varved) sediments of proglacial Lake Silvaplana (46 ̊27’N, 9 ̊48’E, 1791 m a.s.l., Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps) provide an excellent archive for quantitative high-resolution (seasonal – annual) reconstruction of high- and lowfrequency climate signals back to AD 1580. The chronology of the core is based on varve counting, Cs-137, Pb-210 and event stratigraphy. In this study we present a reconstruction based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy. In situ reflectance spectroscopy is known as a cost- and time-effective non destructtive method for semi-quantitative analysis of pigments (e.g., chlorines and carotenoids) and of lithoclastic sediment fractions. Reflectance-dependent absorption (RDA) was measured with a Gretac Macbeth spectrolino at 2 mm resolution. The spectral coverage ranges from 380 nm to 730 nm at 10 nm band resolution. In proglacial Lake Silvaplana, 99% of the sediment is lithoclastic prior to AD 1950. Therefore, we concentrate on absorption features that are characteristic for lithoclastic sediment fractions. In Lake Silvaplana, two significant correlations that are stable in time were found between RDA typical for lithoclastics and meteorological data: (1) the time series R 570 /R 630 (ratio between RDA at 570 nm and 630 nm) of varves in Lake Silvaplana and May to October temperatures at nearby station of Sils correlate highly significantly (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.74, p < 0.01 for 5ptsmoothed series; RMSE is 0.28 ̊C, RE = 0.41 and CE = 0.38), and (2) the minimum reflectance within the 690nm band (min690) data correlate with May to October (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.68, p < 0.01 for 5pt-smoothed series; RMSE = 0.22 ̊C, RE = 0.5, CE = 0.31). Both proxy series (min690nm and R 570 /R 630 values) are internally highly consistent (r = 0.8, p < 0.001). In proglacial Lake Silvaplana the largest amount of sediment is transported by glacial meltwater. The melting season spans approximately from May to October, which gives us a good understanding of the geophysical processes explaining the correlations between lithoclastic proxies and the meteorological data. The reconstructions were extended back to AD 1580 and show a broad corresponddence with fully independent reconstructions from tree rings and documentary data.

Unexplained gonad alterations in whitefish (Coregonus spp.) from Lake Thun, Switzerland: levels of persistent organic pollutants in different morphs

Since 2000, a surprisingly high number of macroscopical gonad alterations has been reported in whitefish (Coregonus spp.) from Lake Thun, Switzerland. This unique phenomenon is still unexplained and has received much public attention. As one possible trigger for these effects, the presence of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic compounds acting as endocrine disruptors in the lake has been discussed. In this study, concentrations of selected persistent organic pollutants were examined in two morphs of whitefish from Lake Thun and their link to the observed abnormalities was investigated. Analyzed compound classes included polychlorinated biphenyls, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, polychlorinated naphthalenes, polybrominated diphenyl ethers and hexabromocyclododecanes. The target substances were identified in all samples and concentrations of the analyzed compounds were highly correlated among each other. These correlations show that the analyzed substances have the same distribution pattern throughout the lake and that uptake, accumulation and elimination processes are similar. Significant differences in contaminant levels within the samples existed between the two analyzed morphs of whitefish, most likely due to different age, food patterns and growth rate. No difference in contaminant levels was observed between fish with abnormal gonads and fish with normal gonads, suggesting no causal link between the investigated lipophilic organohalogen compounds present in fish and the observed gonad abnormalities in whitefish from Lake Thun. A comparison to existing data shows that concentrations in Lake Thun whitefish are at the lower bound of contaminant levels in whitefish from Swiss lakes or from European waters.