Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Why stagnant? behind the scenes in Indonesia’s reformed state asset management policies

This study seeks to answer the question of “why is policy innovation in Indonesia, in particular reformed state asset management laws and regulations, stagnant?” through an empirical and qualitative approach, identifying and exploring potential impeding influences to the full and equal implementation of said laws and regulations. The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management has emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide (Conway, 2006; Dow, Gillies, Nichols, & Polen, 2006; Kaganova, McKellar, & Peterson, 2006; McKellar, 2006b) for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Two main reasons propelled said policy innovation: a) world-wide common challenges in state asset management practices - such as incomplete information system, accountability, and governance adherence/conceptualisation (Kaganova, McKellar and Peterson 2006); and b) unfavourable state assets audit results in all regional governments across Indonesia. The latter reasoning is emphasised, as the Indonesian government admits to past neglect in ensuring efficiency and best practice in its state asset management practices. Prior to reform there was euphoria of building and developing state assets and public infrastructure to support government programs of the day. Although this euphoria resulted in high growth within Indonesia, there seems to be little attention paid to how state assets bought/built is managed. Up until 2003-2004 state asset management is considered to be minimal; inventory of assets is done manually, there is incomplete public sector accounting standards, and incomplete financial reporting standards (Hadiyanto 2009). During that time transparency, accountability, and maintenance state assets was not the main focus, be it by the government or the society itself (Hadiyanto 2009). Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management (Hadiyanto, 2009c). Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management (Hadiyanto, 2009a). The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, with a triangulated data collection method of document analysis (all relevant state asset management laws, regulations, policies, technical guidelines, and external audit reports), semi-structured interviews, and on-site observation. Empirical data of this study involved a sample of four Indonesian regional governments and 70 interviews, performed during January-July 2010. The analytical approach of this study is that of thematic analysis, in an effort to identify common influences and/or challenges to policy innovation within Indonesia. Based on the empirical data of this study specific impeding influences to state asset management reform is explored, answering the question why innovative policy implementation is stagnant. An in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform, and the attached interviewee’s opinions for each factor, suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in; as a means to explain innovative policy stagnancy. This study offers insights to Indonesian policy makers interested in ensuring the conceptualisation and full implementation of innovative policies, particularly, although not limited to, within the context of state asset management practices.

Role of resting metabolic rate and energy expenditure in hunger and appetite control : a new formulation

A long-running issue in appetite research concerns the influence of energy expenditure on energy intake. More than 50 years ago, Otto G. Edholm proposed that "the differences between the intakes of food [of individuals] must originate in differences in the expenditure of energy". However, a relationship between energy expenditure and energy intake within any one day could not be found, although there was a correlation over 2 weeks. This issue was never resolved before interest in integrative biology was replaced by molecular biochemistry. Using a psychobiological approach, we have studied appetite control in an energy balance framework using a multi-level experimental system on a single cohort of overweight and obese human subjects. This has disclosed relationships between variables in the domains of body composition [fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM)], metabolism, gastrointestinal hormones, hunger and energy intake. In this Commentary, we review our own and other data, and discuss a new formulation whereby appetite control and energy intake are regulated by energy expenditure. Specifically, we propose that FFM (the largest contributor to resting metabolic rate), but not body mass index or FM, is closely associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake. This formulation has implications for understanding weight regulation and the management of obesity.

The Role of the Judiciary in Earth Jurisprudence : An Analysis of Judicial Approaches to Standing in Climate Change and Environmental Justice Litigation

The role of the judiciary in common law systems is to create law, interpret law and uphold the law. As such decisions by courts on matters related to ecologically sustainable development, natural resource use and management and climate change make an important contribution to earth jurisprudence. There are examples where judicial decisions further the goals of earth jurisprudence and examples where decisions go against the principles of earth jurisprudence. This presentation will explore judicial approaches to standing in Australia and America. The paper will explore two trends in each jurisdiction. Approaches by American courts to standing will be examined in reference to climate change and environmental justice litigation. While Australian approaches to standing will be examined in the context of public interest litigation and environmental criminal negligence cases. The presentation will draw some conclusions about the role of standing in each of these cases and implications of this for earth jurisprudence.

Paramedics' perceptions of their role in palliative care : analysis of focus group transcripts

Paramedics play an important role in out-of-hospital health care. They provide unscheduled care, assisting both patients with minor injuries and those experiencing life-threatening emergencies. Increasingly, paramedics are called on to manage chronic and complex health needs, including symptom relief for patients at the end of life. However, paramedics may not be well prepared to offer palliative care, as practice guidelines and education tend to focus on the management of acute medical emergencies and major trauma. Emergency medical services that employ paramedics rarely have practice guidelines or protocols that deal specifically with palliative care.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality and the role of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors : a prospective cohort study with 17-years of follow up

Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood.

The strategic importance of tacit knowledge management activities in construction

Purpose: Tacit knowledge is perceived as the most strategically important resource of the construction organisation, and the only renewable and sustainable base for its activities and competitiveness. Knowledge management (KM) activities that deal with tacit knowledge are essential in helping an organisation to achieve its long-term organisational objectives. The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence for the stronger strategic role of tacit KM in comparison to explicit KM. Design/methodology/approach: A questionnaire survey was administered in 2005 to a sample of construction contractors operating in Hong Kong to elicit opinions on the internal business environment, intensity of KM activities as executed by targeted organisations, and contribution of these activities to business performance (BP). A total of 149 usable responses were received from 99 organisations representing about 38 per cent of the sampling frame. The statistical analyses helped to map the reported KM activities into two groups that, respectively, deal with tacit and explicit knowledge. The sensitivity to variations of organisational policies and strength of association with BP in relation to the two groups of KM activities were also compared empirically. A total of 15 interviews with the managerial and professional staff of leading contractors was undertaken to provide insightful narratives of KM implementations. Findings: The effective implementation of organisational policies, such as encouraging innovations and strengthening strategic guidance for KM, would facilitate human interactions of tacit KM. Higher intensity of activities in managing tacit knowledge would ultimately help the organisations to achieve economic gain in the long run. Originality/value: The stronger strategic role of tacit KM is empirically investigated and established within the context of construction organisations.

Community interventions for physical activity : the role of a new Cochrane systematic review

Introduction: Systematic reviews are essential in summarising the results of a range of research studies on a specific topic into a single report. They serve as a key source of evidence-based information to support and develop policy and practice for healthy communities. This presentation will examine a new review of community-wide strategies to increase population levels of physical activity and compare it to an earlier Community Guide Review (CGR) of Community-wide campaigns to increase physical activity which recommended community wide interventions. Methods: We registered a Cochrane Systematic Review (CSR) title, published a protocol and recently completed the review of Community-wide interventions to increase physical activity. We compared the definitions, design and findings of the CSR to the CGR. Results: The two reviews differed remarkably in their conclusions with the CGR recommending “strong evidence exists that community-wide campaigns are effective in increasing levels of physical activity”, and the new CSR stating “The body of evidence in this review does not support the hypothesis that multi-component community wide interventions effectively increase population levels of physical activity”. We observed that both reviews examined multi-component interventions as a “combined package”. Possible explanations for the different conclusions may be due to the definition of community (CSR defined community as “comprising those persons residing in a geographically defined community, such as a village, town, or city”, excluding interventions which were whole of state or country, and CGR as “a group of individuals who share one or more characteristics. The CSR utilised a logic model at various stages of the review process and explicitly defined a combination of strategies encompassed within the intervention. The CSR included 25 and CGR 10 studies, respectively. Six of the 10 studies that were included in CGR were excluded from the CSR due to issues relating to study design, intervention definition or duration. The two reviews also differ in function as the CSR seeks to summarise global evidence and included 7 studies in low-income countries, where as the CGR contained only studies deemed relevant to the USA context. Discussion: Differences in the findings between older and newer reviews can be due to a variety of factors. For example, in updating a review the definition of an intervention can be changed. Further, differences may also be due to improvements in the standards and methodologies for systematic reviews as well as the inclusion of newer studies. These factors need to be understood whenever differences between newer and older reviews are considered.

Dimensions of the venture creation process : amount, dynamics, and sequences of action in nascent entrepreneurship

This research examines the entrepreneurship phenomenon, and the question: Why are some venture attempts more successful than others? This question is not a new one. Prior research has answered this by describing those that engage in nascent entrepreneurship. Yet, this approach yielded little consensus and offers little comfort for those newly considering venture creation (Gartner, 1988). Rather, this research considers the process of venture creation, by focusing on the actions of nascent entrepreneurs. However, the venture creation process is complex (Liao, Welsch, & Tan, 2005), and multi-dimensional (Davidsson, 2004). The process can vary in the amount of action engaged by the entrepreneur; the temporal dynamics of how action is enacted (Lichtenstein, Carter, Dooley, and Gartner 2007); or the sequence in which actions are undertaken. And little is known about whether any, or all three, of these dimensions matter. Further, there exists scant general knowledge about how the venture creation process influences venture creation outcomes (Gartner & Shaver, 2011). Therefore, this research conducts a systematic study of what entrepreneurs do as they create a new venture. The primary goal is to develop general principles so that advice may be offered on how to ‘proceed’, rather than how to ‘be’. Three integrated empirical studies were conducted that separately focus on each of the interrelated dimensions. The basis for this was a randomly sampled, longitudinal panel, of nascent ventures. Upon recruitment these ventures were in the process of being created, but yet to be established as new businesses. The ventures were tracked one year latter to follow up on outcomes. Accordingly, this research makes the following original contributions to knowledge. First, the findings suggest that all three of the dimensions play an important role: action, dynamics, and sequence. This implies that future research should take a multi-dimensional view of the venture creation process. Failing to do so can only result in a limited understanding of a complex phenomenon. Second, action is the fundamental means through which venture creation is achieved. Simply put, more active venture creation efforts are more likely more successful. Further, action is the medium which allows resource endowments their effect upon venture outcomes. Third, the dynamics of how venture creation plays out over time is also influential. Here, a process with a high rate of action which increases in intensity will more likely achieve positive outcomes. Forth, sequence analysis, suggests that the order in which actions are taken will also drive outcomes. Although venture creation generally flows in sequence from discovery toward exploitation (Shane & Venkataraman, 2000; Eckhardt & Shane, 2003; Shane, 2003), processes that actually proceed in this way are less likely to be realized. Instead, processes which specifically intertwine discovery and exploitation action together in symbiosis more likely achieve better outcomes (Sarasvathy, 2001; Baker, Miner, & Eesley, 2003). Further, an optimal venture creation order exists somewhere between these sequential and symbiotic process archetypes. A process which starts out as symbiotic discovery and exploitation, but switches to focus exclusively on exploitation later on is most likely to achieve venture creation. These sequence findings are unique, and suggest future integration between opposing theories for order in venture creation.

Sustainable infrastructure operations : a review of assessment schemes and decision support

Infrastructure forms a vital component in supporting today’s way of life and has a significant role or impact on economic, environmental and social outcomes of the region around it. The design, construction and operation of such assets are a multi-billion dollar industry in Australia alone. Another issue that will play a major role in our way life is that of climate change and the greater concept of sustainability. With limited resources and a changing natural world it is necessary for infrastructure to be developed and maintained in a manner that is sustainable. In order to achieve infrastructure sustainability in operations it is necessary for there to be: a sustainability assessment scheme that provides a scientifically sound and realistic approach to measuring an assets level of sustainability; and, systems and tools to support the making of decisions that result in sustainable outcomes by providing feedback in a timely manner. Having these in place will then help drive the consideration of sustainability during the decision making process for infrastructure operations and maintenance. In this paper we provide two main contributions; a comparison and review of sustainability assessment schemes for infrastructure and their suitability for use in the operations phase; and, a review of decision support systems/tools in the area of infrastructure sustainability in operations. For this paper, sustainability covers not just the environment, but also finance/economic and societal/community aspects as well. This is often referred to as the Triple Bottom Line and forms one of the three dimensions of corporate sustainability [Stapledon, 2004].

Fans teaching fans how to consume : the role of ritual in the consumption of entertainment

The status of entertainment as both a dimension of human culture, and a booming global industry is increasing. Given more recent consumer-centric definitions of entertainment, the entertainment consumer has grown in prominence and is now coming under closer scrutiny. However viewing entertainment consumers as always behaving in a similar fashion towards entertainment as to other products may be selling them short. For a start, entertainment consumers can exhibit a strong loyalty towards their favourite entertainment products that is the envy of the marketing world. Academic researchers and marketers who are keen to investigate entertainment consumers would benefit from a theoretical base from which to commence. This essay therefore, takes a consumer-oriented focus in defining entertainment and conceptualises a model of entertainment consumption. In approaching the study of entertainment one axiomatic question remains: how should we define it? Richard Dyer notes that, considering that the category of entertainment can include – by its own definition in the song ‘That’s entertainment!’ – everything from Hamlet and Oedipus Rex to ‘the clown with his pants falling down’ and ‘the lights on the lady in tights’, it doesn’t make much sense to try to define entertainment as being marked by particular textual features (as is done, for example, by Avrich, 2002). Dyer’s position is rather that ‘entertainment is not so much a category of things as an attitude towards things’ (Dyer, 1973: 9). He traces the modern conception of entertainment back to the writings of Molière. This writer defended the purpose of his plays against attacks from the church that they were not sufficiently edifying by insisting that, as entertainments he had no interest in edifying audiences – his ‘real purpose …was to provide people pleasure – and the definition of that was to be decided by “the people”’(Dyer, 1973: 9). In my own discipline of Marketing this approach has been embraced – Kaser and Oelkers, for example, define entertainment as ‘whatever people are willing to spend their money and spare time viewing’ (2008, 18). That is the approach taken in this paper, where I see entertainment as ‘consumer-driven culture’ (McKee and Collis, 2009) – a definition that is closely aligned with the marketing concept. Within a marketing framework I explore what the consumption of entertainment can tell us about the relationships between consumers and culture more generally. For entertainment offers an intriguing case study, and is often consumed in ways that challenge many of our assumptions about marketing and consumer behaviour.

The role of HtrA as a chaperone and protease in bacterial pathogenesis

HtrA (High Temperature Requirement A) is a critical stress response protease and chaperone for many bacteria. HtrA is a multitasking protein which can degrade unfolded proteins, conduct specific proteolysis of some substrates for correct assembly, interact with substrates to ensure correct folding, assembly or localisation, and chaperone unfolded proteins. These functions are critical for the virulence of a number of bacterial pathogens, in some cases not simply due to the broad activities of HtrA in protection against the protein stress conditions which occur during virulence. But also due to the role of HtrA in either specific proteolysis or assembly of key protein substrates which function directly in virulence. Remarkably, these activities are all conducted without any requirement for ATP. The biochemical mechanism of HtrA relies both on the chymotryptic serine protease active site as well as the presence of two PDZ (protein binding) domains. The mechanism is a unique combination of activation by substrate motifs to alter the confirmation of the active site, and assembly into a multimeric complex which has enhanced degradation and may also act as a protective cage for proteins which are not degraded. The role of this protease in the pathogenesis of a number of bacteria and the details of its distinctive biochemical activation and assembly mechanisms are discussed in this chapter.

Nursing a case of the blues : an examination of the role of depression in predicting job-related affective well-being in nurses

The current study explored the effect of depression, optimism, and anxiety on job-related affective well-being in 70 graduate nurses. It was predicted that depression and anxiety would have a significant negative effect on job-related affective well-being, whereas optimism would have a significant positive effect on job-related affective well-being. Questionnaires were completed online or in hard-copy forms. Results revealed that depression, optimism, and anxiety were all significantly correlated to job-related affective well-being in the expected direction however, depression was found to be the only variable that made a significant unique contribution to the prediction of job-related affective well-being. Possible explanations for these findings are explored.

The role of HtrA as a chaperone and protease in bacterial pathogenisis

HtrA (High Temperature Requirement A) is a critical stress response protease and chaperone for many bacteria. HtrA is a multitasking protein which can degrade unfolded proteins, conduct specific proteolysis of some substrates for correct assembly, interact with substrates to ensure correct folding, assembly or localisation, and chaperone unfolded proteins. These functions are critical for the virulence of a number of bacterial pathogens, in some cases not simply due to the broad activities of HtrA in protection against the protein stress conditions which occur during virulence. But also due to the role of HtrA in either specific proteolysis or assembly of key protein substrates which function directly in virulence. Remarkably, these activities are all conducted without any requirement for ATP. The biochemical mechanism of HtrA relies both on the chymotryptic serine protease active site as well as the presence of two PDZ (protein binding) domains. The mechanism is a unique combination of activation by substrate motifs to alter the confirmation of the active site, and assembly into a multimeric complex which has enhanced degradation and may also act as a protective cage for proteins which are not degraded. The role of this protease in the pathogenesis of a number of bacteria and the details of its distinctive biochemical activation and assembly mechanisms are discussed in this chapter.