The importance of distinguishing information from evidence/observations when formulating propositions

The value of forensic results crucially depends on the propositions and the information under which they are evaluated. For example, if a full single DNA profile for a contemporary marker system matching the profile of Mr A is assessed, given the propositions that the DNA came from Mr A and given it came from an unknown person, the strength of evidence can be overwhelming (e.g., in the order of a billion). In contrast, if we assess the same result given that the DNA came from Mr A and given it came from his twin brother (i.e., a person with the same DNA profile), the strength of evidence will be 1, and therefore neutral, unhelpful and irrelevant 1 to the case at hand. While this understanding is probably uncontroversial and obvious to most, if not all practitioners dealing with DNA evidence, the practical precept of not specifying an alternative source with the same characteristics as the one considered under the first proposition may be much less clear in other circumstances. During discussions with colleagues and trainees, cases have come to our attention where forensic scientists have difficulty with the formulation of propositions. It is particularly common to observe that results (e.g., observations) are included in the propositions, whereas-as argued throughout this note-they should not be. A typical example could be a case where a shoe-mark with a logo and the general pattern characteristics of a Nike Air Jordan shoe is found at the scene of a crime. A Nike Air Jordan shoe is then seized at Mr A's house and control prints of this shoe compared to the mark. The results (e.g., a trace with this general pattern and acquired characteristics corresponding to the sole of Mr A's shoe) are then evaluated given the propositions 'The mark was left by Mr A's Nike Air Jordan shoe-sole' and 'The mark was left by an unknown Nike Air Jordan shoe'. As a consequence, the footwear examiner will not evaluate part of the observations (i.e., the mark presents the general pattern of a Nike Air Jordan) whereas they can be highly informative. Such examples can be found in all forensic disciplines. In this article, we present a few such examples and discuss aspects that will help forensic scientists with the formulation of propositions. In particular, we emphasise on the usefulness of notation to distinguish results that forensic scientists should evaluate from case information that the Court will evaluate.

Todennäköisyyspohjaisen kaapelipaloriskianalyysimenetelmän kehittäminen ydinvoimalaitokselle

Ydinenergian tuottamisessa turvallisuus on tärkeää. Todennäköisyyspohjaisella riskianalyysillä voidaan arvioida turvallisuusvaatimusten täyttymistä eri tilanteissa. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin käyttöä ydinvoimalaitoksen kaapelipalojen vaikutusten arvioinnissa. Työn tarkoituksena on omalta osaltaan edistää ydinvoimalaitosten kaapelipaloturvallisuuden parantamista. Työssä esitellään todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin ja todennäköisyyspohjaisen paloanalyysin periaatteet sekä nykyiset kaapelipaloanalyysimenetelmät. Olemassa olevien menetelmien pohjalta kehitettiin menetelmä Olkiluoto 1 ja 2 laitosyksiköiden kaapelipaloturvallisuuden arviointiin. Työssä tarkastellaan myös maailmalla sattuneita kaapelipaloja sekä ydinvoimalaitosten palosimulointiin kehitettyä ohjelmistoa. Työssä kehitetty kaapelipaloanalyysi jakautuu kahteen päävaiheeseen: virtapiirien vika-analyysiin ja virtapiirivikojen todennäköisyysanalyysiin. Virtapiirien vika-analyysi käsittää kaapeleiden vikamoodien, virtapiirien vikaantumisluokkien sekä vikaantumisten vaikutuksien määrittämisen. Virtapiirivikojen todennäköisyysanalyysissä määritetään puolestaan vikaantumistodennäköisyydet kaapelipalokokeiden tulosten pohjalta. Kehitettyä analyysimenetelmää sovellettiin esimerkinomaisesti Olkiluoto 1 ja 2 laitosyksiköiden kahdelle eri huonetilalle. Tuloksena saatiin turvallisuudelle tärkeiden järjestelmien virtapiirien vikaantumismallit sekä niiden todennäköisyydet. Tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että työssä kehitetty kaapelipaloanalyysimenetelmä toimi hyvin. Tulevaisuudessa menetelmää on tarkoitus hyödyntää Olkiluoto 1 ja 2 -laitosyksiköiden kaapelipaloturvallisuuden arvioinnissa.

Optimized dark matter searches in deep observations of Segue 1 with MAGIC

We present the results of stereoscopic observations of the satellite galaxy Segue 1 with the MAGIC Telescopes, carried out between 2011 and 2013. With almost 160 hours of good-quality data, this is the deepest observational campaign on any dwarf galaxy performed so far in the very high energy range of the electromagnetic spectrum. We search this large data sample for signals of dark matter particles in the mass range between 100 GeV and 20 TeV. For this we use the full likelihood analysis method, which provides optimal sensitivity to characteristic gamma-ray spectral features, like those expected from dark matter annihilation or decay. In particular, we focus our search on gamma-rays produced from different final state Standard Model particles, annihilation with internal bremsstrahlung, monochromatic lines and box-shaped signals. Our results represent the most stringent constraints to the annihilation cross-section or decay lifetime obtained from observations of satellite galaxies, for masses above few hundred GeV. In particular, our strongest limit (95% confidence level) corresponds to a ~ 500 GeV dark matter particle annihilating into τ+τ−, and is of order langleσannvrangle simeq 1.2 × 10−24 cm3 s−1 a factor ~ 40 above the langleσannvrangle simeq thermal value.

Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16.081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.

Phenotypic Association Analyses With Copy Number Variation in Recurrent Depressive Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Defining the molecular genomic basis of the likelihood of developing depressive disorder is a considerable challenge. We previously associated rare, exonic deletion copy number variants (CNV) with recurrent depressive disorder (RDD). Sex chromosome abnormalities also have been observed to co-occur with RDD. METHODS: In this reanalysis of our RDD dataset (N = 3106 cases; 459 screened control samples and 2699 population control samples), we further investigated the role of larger CNVs and chromosomal abnormalities in RDD and performed association analyses with clinical data derived from this dataset. RESULTS: We found an enrichment of Turner's syndrome among cases of depression compared with the frequency observed in a large population sample (N = 34,910) of live-born infants collected in Denmark (two-sided p = .023, odds ratio = 7.76 [95% confidence interval = 1.79-33.6]), a case of diploid/triploid mosaicism, and several cases of uniparental isodisomy. In contrast to our previous analysis, large deletion CNVs were no more frequent in cases than control samples, although deletion CNVs in cases contained more genes than control samples (two-sided p = .0002). CONCLUSIONS: After statistical correction for multiple comparisons, our data do not support a substantial role for CNVs in RDD, although (as has been observed in similar samples) occasional cases may harbor large variants with etiological significance. Genetic pleiotropy and sample heterogeneity suggest that very large sample sizes are required to study conclusively the role of genetic variation in mood disorders.

Médecine d'urgence [Emergency medicine: updates 2014].

L'année 2014 a été marquée par de nouvelles acquisitions thérapeutiques en médecine d'urgence.L'estimation de la probabilité d'une néphrolithiase permet d'éviter une imagerie chez les patients à haut risque. L'hypothermie thérapeutique post-arrêt cardiorespiratoire n'a pas de bénéfice par rapport à une stratégie de normothermie contrôlée. Le traitement d'une bronchite aiguë sans signe de gravité par co-amoxicilline ou AINS est inutile. L'adjonction de colchicine au traitement standard de la péricardite aiguë diminue le risque de récidive. L'ajustement du seuil de D-dimères à l'âge permet de réduire le recours à l'imagerie en cas de risque non élevé d'embolie pulmonaire. Enfin, un monitorage invasif précoce n'apporte pas de bénéfice à la prise en charge initiale du choc septique. The year 2014 was marked by new therapeutic acquisitions in emergency medicine. Nephrolithiasis likelihood estimation should avoid imaging in patients at high risk. Therapeutic hypothermia post cardio-respiratory arrest has no benefit compared to a strategy of controlled normothermia. Treatment of acute bronchitis with no signs of severity by coamoxicillin or NSAIDs is useless. Adding colchicine to standard treatment of acute pericarditis reduces the rate of recurrence. The D-dimerthreshold adjustment by age reduces the number of imaging in case of low or intermediate risk of pulmonary embolism. Finally, the speed of the initial management of septic shock is crucial to the outcome of patients, but an early invasive monitoring provides no benefit.

A measure of stability as a criterion for the verification and analysis of simulation models

The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.

Stabbing simulations and DNA transfer

Technical developments have made it possible to analyze very low amounts of DNA. This has many advantages, but the drawback of this technological progress is that interpretation of the results becomes increasingly complex: the number of mixed DNA profiles increased relatively to single source DNA profiles and stochastic effects in the DNA profile, such as drop-in and drop-out, are more frequently observed. Moreover, the relevance of low template DNA material regarding the activities alleged is not as straightforward as it was a few years ago, when for example large quantities of blood were recovered. The possibility of secondary and tertiary transfer is now becoming an issue. The purpose of this research is twofold: first, to study the transfer of DNA from the handler and secondly, to observe if handlers would transfer DNA from persons closely connected to them. We chose to mimic cases where the offender would attack a person with a knife. As a first approach, we envisaged that the defense would not give an alternative explanation for the origin of the DNA. In our transfer experiments (4 donors, 16 experiments each, 64 traces), 3% of the traces were single DNA profiles. Most of the time, the DNA profile of the person handling the knife was present as the major profile: in 83% of the traces the major contributor profile corresponded to the stabber's DNA profile (in single stains and mixtures). Mixture with no clear major/minor fraction (12%) were observed. 5% of the traces were considered of insufficient quality (more than 3 contributors, presence of a few minor peaks). In that case, we considered that the stabber's DNA was absent. In our experiments, no traces allowed excluding the stabber, however it must be noted that precautions were taken to minimize background DNA as knives were cleaned before the experiments. DNA profiles of the stabber's colleagues were not observed. We hope that this study will allow for a better understanding of the transfer mechanism and of how to assess and describe results given activity level propositions. In this preliminary research, we have focused on the transfer of DNA on the hand of the person. Besides, more research is needed to assign the probability of the results given an alternative activity proposed by the defense, for instance when the source of the DNA is not contested, but that the activities are.

A practical guide for the formulation of propositions in the bayesian approach to DNA evidence interpretation in an adversarial environment

The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.

Combining conservative and variable markers to inferthe evolutionary history of Prunus subgen. Amygdalus s.l.under domestication

The genus Prunus L. is large and economically important. However, phylogenetic relationships within Prunus at low taxonomic level, particularly in the subgenus Amygdalus L. s.l., remain poorly investigated. This paper attempts to document the evolutionary history of Amygdalus s.l. and establishes a temporal framework, by assembling molecular data from conservative and variable molecular markers. The nuclear s6pdh gene in combination with the plastid trnSG spacer are analyzed with bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. Since previous phylogenetic analysis with these markers lacked resolution, we additionally analyzed 13 nuclear SSR loci with the δµ2 distance, followed by an unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages algorithm. Our phylogenetic analysis with both sequence and SSR loci confirms the split between sections Amygdalus and Persica, comprising almonds and peaches, respectively. This result is in agreement with biogeographic data showing that each of the two sections is naturally distributed on each side of the Central Asian Massif chain. Using coalescent based estimations, divergence times between the two sections strongly varied when considering sequence data only or combined with SSR. The sequence-only based estimate (5 million years ago) was congruent with the Central Asian Massif orogeny and subsequent climate change. Given the low level of differentiation within the two sections using both marker types, the utility of combining microsatellites and data sequences to address phylogenetic relationships at low taxonomic level within Amygdalus is discussed. The recent evolutionary histories of almond and peach are discussed in view of the domestication processes that arose in these two phenotypically-diverging gene pools: almonds and peaches were domesticated from the Amygdalus s.s. and Persica sections, respectively. Such economically important crops may serve as good model to study divergent domestication process in close genetic pool.

Evaluating forensic biology results given source level propositions

The evaluation of forensic evidence can occur at any level within the hierarchy of propositions depending on the question being asked and the amount and type of information that is taken into account within the evaluation. Commonly DNA evidence is reported given propositions that deal with the sub-source level in the hierarchy, which deals only with the possibility that a nominated individual is a source of DNA in a trace (or contributor to the DNA in the case of a mixed DNA trace). We explore the use of information obtained from examinations, presumptive and discriminating tests for body fluids, DNA concentrations and some case circumstances within a Bayesian network in order to provide assistance to the Courts that have to consider propositions at source level. We use a scenario in which the presence of blood is of interest as an exemplar and consider how DNA profiling results and the potential for laboratory error can be taken into account. We finish with examples of how the results of these reports could be presented in court using either numerical values or verbal descriptions of the results.

Young Firms and R&D subsidies in Catalonia

Based on four different public R&D calls from the Catalan government, this article evaluates the propensity of entrants and young firms to apply for R&D public grants and, as compared to their counterparts, their capacity for obtaining subsides. This analysis is particularly relevant since entrants and young firms encounter greater market difficulties. Our sample contains 22,139 firms and corresponds to a merge of two databases: one from the Catalan agency responsible for promoting private innovation (ACC1Ó) and the other from the Mercantile Register. Merging these databases has two advantages. Firstly, participants and non-participants in the public R&D call (“InnoEmpresa”) are included and, secondly, it provides us with information at firm and project level. The period of observation is between 2006 and 2010, since some explanatory variables are lagged by one period. We apply a two-step methodology. Our results show that entrants and young firms show a lower propensity to apply for R&D subsidies and to obtain R&D public grants. Firm size, exports and participation in a previous call show a positive impact on the likelihood of applying, and firms located in the Barcelona metropolitan area have a greater propensity to apply. Additionally, project quality and R&D cooperative reports presented jointly with other partners have a positive impact on the likelihood of obtaining the R&D subsidy. Finally, firms that have previously obtained an R&D subsidy do not exhibit a greater propensity for obtaining subsequent grants. Keywords: R&D subsidies, entrants and young firms Classification JEL: L53, L25, O38

Sociodemographic, behavioral and genetic determinants of allostatic load in a Swiss population-based study.

Allostatic load (AL) is a marker of physiological dysregulation which reflects exposure to chronic stress. High AL has been related to poorer health outcomes including mortality. We examine here the association of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with AL. Additionally, we investigate the extent to which AL is genetically determined. We included 803 participants (52% women, mean age 48±16years) from a population and family-based Swiss study. We computed an AL index aggregating 14 markers from cardiovascular, metabolic, lipidic, oxidative, hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal and inflammatory homeostatic axes. Education and occupational position were used as indicators of socioeconomic status. Marital status, stress, alcohol intake, smoking, dietary patterns and physical activity were considered as lifestyle factors. Heritability of AL was estimated by maximum likelihood. Women with a low occupational position had higher AL (low vs. high OR=3.99, 95%CI [1.22;13.05]), while the opposite was observed for men (middle vs. high OR=0.48, 95%CI [0.23;0.99]). Education tended to be inversely associated with AL in both sexes(low vs. high OR=3.54, 95%CI [1.69;7.4]/OR=1.59, 95%CI [0.88;2.90] in women/men). Heavy drinking men as well as women abstaining from alcohol had higher AL than moderate drinkers. Physical activity was protective against AL while high salt intake was related to increased AL risk. The heritability of AL was estimated to be 29.5% ±7.9%. Our results suggest that generalized physiological dysregulation, as measured by AL, is determined by both environmental and genetic factors. The genetic contribution to AL remains modest when compared to the environmental component, which explains approximately 70% of the phenotypic variance.

Cost-effectiveness of Tenofovir / Emtricitabine / Efavirenz versus Zidovudine / Lamivudine / Efavirenz as fist-line regimens for the treatment of HIV-infected patients in low-income settings

The Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) is the combination of at least three antiretroviral compounds. The combination purpose is to reduce the likelihood of drug resistance. However in the long-term the resistance to the first-line combination occurs and leads to treatment failure. Thus, a second-line and even a third-line regimen are recommended in the long run. [...] [P. 5] The two treatment alternatives under comparison: Tenofovir (300 mg) CO-formulated with Emtricitabine (200 mg) and Efavirenz (600 mg) currently known under the brand name Atripla (R) was introduced in July 2006 in the United States market. The excellent safety profile and ease of use make this combination a perfect first-line regimen in low-income settings. Therefore, this treatment option was recommended in WHO 2006 reviewed guidelines. Unfortunately, Tenofovir and Emtricitabine compounds are still costly and not yet widely available. For a matter of simplification this regimen is referred in this report as "the recent" therapy. Initially, we had in mind to consider the most frequently used first-line regimen in low-income countries (Stavudine / Larnivudme / Nevirapine) as a comparator for this economic evaluation. Unfortunately, according to the literature review results (see Annex 3); there was no data available comparing head to head the effectiveness of this regimen with the recent one. Instead, we selected a less frequently but commonly used first-line regimen in low-income countries as a comparator: Zidovudine, Lamivudine, Efavirenz. This combination has extensive experience in durability, safety and toxicity and seems to be an optimal choice for a first-line regimen according to the clinical trial group 384 team. Furthermore, Zidovudine, one of the compounds of this combination is now recommended as one of the preferred NNRTI [Non Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors] options to be considered by countries instead of Stavudine (the most used NNRTI in limited-income countries). As this combination has been included in the WHO guidelines as a first-line therapy since 2003 when WHO launched the "3 by 5" scaling-up initiative, this combination of drugs is referred in this report as the "old" therapy. Objectives: The primary objective of this economic evaluation is to compare the two first-line HAARTs introduced above, in a low-income setting context. Both of these combinations are recommended by the 2006 WHO guidelines as potential first-line regimens. The secondary objective is to provide a simplified and comprehensible cost-effectiveness modeling tool in order to help policy makers, in resource-limited settings, make decisions about which first-line HAART to fund using the scarce resources available. [P. 6-7]

Incumbent audit firm-provided tax services and the clients with low financial reporting quality

This study investigates whether incumbent audit firm-provided tax services enhance or impair the likelihood of acknowledging client companies’ low financial reporting quality. In particular, we examine the association between tax-related fees and the likelihood of timely restatements, and internal control weakness disclosures among a sample of US companies that all have misstatements in financial information. The empirical findings indicate that companies paying higher tax-related fees are less likely to disclose SOX 404 internal control weakness disclosures, implying that underlying control problems are unacknowledged when incumbent audit firm provided tax-related fees are higher. However, the findings suggest that just providing both audit and tax-related services does not have an impact on audit quality per se, but rather it is the magnitude of the tax-related fees in particular that counts. We also find some evidence suggesting that companies paying higher tax-related fees have higher likelihood of restatement lags, whereas companies paying smaller tax-related fees to their audit firm restate financial statements in a timelier manner. Overall, the findings suggest that audit scrutiny of client companies with low quality financial reporting is weaker when the magnitude of tax-related fees is higher.