Generation and interconnection capacity expansion in cross-border electricity markets : the need for policy coordination

Electricity is a strategic service in modern societies. Thus, it is extremely important for governments to be able to guarantee an affordable and reliable supply, which depends to a great extent on an adequate expansion of the generation and transmission capacities. Cross- border integration of electricity markets creates new challenges for the regulators, since the evolution of the market is now influenced by the characteristics and policies of neighbouring countries. There is still no agreement on why and how regions should integrate their electricity markets. The aim of this thesis is to improve the understanding of integrated electricity markets and how their behaviour depends on the prevailing characteristics of the national markets and the policies implemented in each country. We developed a simulation model to analyse under what circumstances integration is desirable. This model is used to study three cases of interconnection between two countries. Several policies regarding interconnection expansion and operation, combined with different generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, are evaluated. The thesis is composed of three papers. The first paper presents a detailed description of the model and an analysis of the case of Colombia and Ecuador. It shows that market coupling can bring important benefits, but the relative size of the countries can lead to import dependency issues in the smaller country. The second paper compares the case of Colombia and Ecuador with the case of Great Britain and France. These countries are significantly different in terms of electricity sources, hydro- storage capacity, complementarity and demand growth. We show that complementarity is essential in order to obtain benefits from integration, while higher demand growth and hydro- storage capacity can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, thus complicating policy design. In the third paper, an extended version of the model presented in the first paper is used to analyse the case of Finland and its interconnection with Russia. Different trading arrangements are considered. We conclude that unless interconnection capacity is expanded, the current trading arrangement, where a single trader owns the transmission rights and limits the flow during peak hours, is beneficial for Finland. In case of interconnection expansion, market coupling would be preferable. We also show that the costs of maintaining a strategic reserve in Finland are justified in order to limit import dependency, while still reaping the benefits of interconnection. In general, we conclude that electricity market integration can bring benefits if the right policies are implemented. However, a large interconnection capacity is only desirable if the countries exhibit significant complementarity and trust each other. The outcomes of policies aimed at guaranteeing security of supply at a national level can be quite counterintuitive due to the interactions between neighbouring countries and their effects on interconnection and generation investments. Thus, it is important for regulators to understand these interactions and coordinate their decisions in order to take advantage of the interconnection without putting security of supply at risk. But it must be taken into account that even when integration brings benefits to the region, some market participants lose and might try to hinder the integration process. -- Dans les sociétés modernes, l'électricité est un service stratégique. Il est donc extrêmement important pour les gouvernements de pouvoir garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement à des prix abordables. Ceci dépend en grande mesure d'une expansion adéquate des capacités de génération et de transmission. L'intégration des marchés électriques pose des nouveaux défis pour les régulateurs, puisque l'évolution du marché est maintenant influencée par les caractéristiques et les politiques des pays voisins. Il n'est pas encore claire pourquoi ni comment les marches électriques devraient s'intégrer. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'améliorer la compréhension des marchés intégrés d'électricité et de leur comportement en fonction des caractéristiques et politiques de chaque pays. Un modèle de simulation est proposé pour étudier les conditions dans lesquelles l'intégration est désirable. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier trois cas d'interconnexion entre deux pays. Plusieurs politiques concernant l'expansion et l'opération de l'interconnexion, combinées avec différents mécanismes de rémunération de la capacité, sont évalués. Cette thèse est compose de trois articles. Le premier présente une description détaillée du modèle et une analyse du cas de la Colombie et de l'Equateur. Il montre que le couplage de marchés peut amener des bénéfices importants ; cependant, la différence de taille entre pays peut créer des soucis de dépendance aux importations pour le pays le plus petit. Le second papier compare le cas de la Colombie et l'Equateur avec le cas de la Grande Bretagne et de la France. Ces pays sont très différents en termes de ressources, taille des réservoirs d'accumulation pour l'hydro, complémentarité et croissance de la demande. Nos résultats montrent que la complémentarité joue un rôle essentiel dans l'obtention des bénéfices potentiels de l'intégration, alors qu'un taux élevé de croissance de la demande, ainsi qu'une grande capacité de stockage, mènent à des résultats contre-intuitifs, ce qui complique les décisions des régulateurs. Dans le troisième article, une extension du modèle présenté dans le premier article est utilisée pour analyser le cas de la Finlande et de la Russie. Différentes règles pour les échanges internationaux d'électricité sont considérées. Nos résultats indiquent qu'à un faible niveau d'interconnexion, la situation actuelle, où un marchand unique possède les droits de transmission et limite le flux pendant les heures de pointe, est bénéfique pour la Finlande. Cependant, en cas d'expansion de la capacité d'interconnexion, «market coupling» est préférable. préférable. Dans tous les cas, la Finlande a intérêt à garder une réserve stratégique, car même si cette politique entraine des coûts, elle lui permet de profiter des avantages de l'intégration tout en limitant ca dépendance envers les importations. En général, nous concluons que si les politiques adéquates sont implémentées, l'intégration des marchés électriques peut amener des bénéfices. Cependant, une grande capacité d'interconnexion n'est désirable que si les pays ont une complémentarité importante et il existe une confiance mutuelle. Les résultats des politiques qui cherchent à préserver la sécurité d'approvisionnement au niveau national peuvent être très contre-intuitifs, étant données les interactions entre les pays voisins et leurs effets sur les investissements en génération et en interconnexion. Il est donc très important pour les régulateurs de comprendre ces interactions et de coordonner décisions à fin de pouvoir profiter de l'interconnexion sans mettre en danger la sécurité d'approvisionnement. Mais il faut être conscients que même quand l'intégration amène de bénéfices pour la région, certains participants au marché sont perdants et pourraient essayer de bloquer le processus d'intégration.

Supergravity models of (3+1)-dimensional QCD

The most general black M5-brane solution of eleven-dimensional supergravity (with a flat R4 spacetime in the brane and a regular horizon) is characterized by charge, mass and two angular momenta. We use this metric to construct general dual models of large-N QCD (at strong coupling) that depend on two free parameters. The mass spectrum of scalar particles is determined analytically (in the WKB approximation) and numerically in the whole two-dimensional parameter space. We compare the mass spectrum with analogous results from lattice calculations, and find that the supergravity predictions are close to the lattice results everywhere on the two dimensional parameter space except along a special line. We also examine the mass spectrum of the supergravity Kaluza-Klein (KK) modes and find that the KK modes along the compact D-brane coordinate decouple from the spectrum for large angular momenta. There are however KK modes charged under a U(1)×U(1) global symmetry which do not decouple anywhere on the parameter space. General formulas for the string tension and action are also given.

Large N QCD from rotating branes

We study large N SU(N) Yang-Mills theory in three and four dimensions using a one-parameter family of supergravity models which originate from non-extremal rotating D-branes. We show explicitly that varying this angular momentum parameter decouples the Kaluza-Klein modes associated with the compact D-brane coordinate, while the mass ratios for ordinary glueballs are quite stable against this variation, and are in good agreement with the latest lattice results. We also compute the topological susceptibility and the gluon condensate as a function of the "angular momentum" parameter.

Automatic target validation based on neuroscientific literature mining for tractography.

Target identification for tractography studies requires solid anatomical knowledge validated by an extensive literature review across species for each seed structure to be studied. Manual literature review to identify targets for a given seed region is tedious and potentially subjective. Therefore, complementary approaches would be useful. We propose to use text-mining models to automatically suggest potential targets from the neuroscientific literature, full-text articles and abstracts, so that they can be used for anatomical connection studies and more specifically for tractography. We applied text-mining models to three structures: two well-studied structures, since validated deep brain stimulation targets, the internal globus pallidus and the subthalamic nucleus and, the nucleus accumbens, an exploratory target for treating psychiatric disorders. We performed a systematic review of the literature to document the projections of the three selected structures and compared it with the targets proposed by text-mining models, both in rat and primate (including human). We ran probabilistic tractography on the nucleus accumbens and compared the output with the results of the text-mining models and literature review. Overall, text-mining the literature could find three times as many targets as two man-weeks of curation could. The overall efficiency of the text-mining against literature review in our study was 98% recall (at 36% precision), meaning that over all the targets for the three selected seeds, only one target has been missed by text-mining. We demonstrate that connectivity for a structure of interest can be extracted from a very large amount of publications and abstracts. We believe this tool will be useful in helping the neuroscience community to facilitate connectivity studies of particular brain regions. The text mining tools used for the study are part of the HBP Neuroinformatics Platform, publicly available at http://connectivity-brainer.rhcloud.com/.

Dynamic and quasistatic trajectories in quasifission reactions and particle emission

We show that the quasifission paths predicted by the one-body dissipation dynamics, in the slowest phase of a binary reaction, follow a quasistatic path, which represents a sequence of states of thermal equilibrium at a fixed value of the deformation coordinate. This establishes the use of the statistical particle-evaporation model in the case of dynamical time-evolving systems. Pre- and post-scission multiplicities of neutrons and total multiplicities of protons and α particles in fission reactions of 63Cu+92Mo, 60Ni+100Mo, 63Cu+100Mo at 10 MeV/u and 20Ne+144,148,154Sm at 20 MeV/u are reproduced reasonably well with statistical model calculations performed along dynamic trajectories whose slow stage (from the most compact configuration up to the point where the neck starts to develop) lasts some 35×10−21 s.

Sherali-Adams Relaxations and Indistinguishability in Counting Logics

Two graphs with adjacency matrices $\mathbf{A}$ and $\mathbf{B}$ are isomorphic if there exists a permutation matrix $\mathbf{P}$ for which the identity $\mathbf{P}^{\mathrm{T}} \mathbf{A} \mathbf{P} = \mathbf{B}$ holds. Multiplying through by $\mathbf{P}$ and relaxing the permutation matrix to a doubly stochastic matrix leads to the linear programming relaxation known as fractional isomorphism. We show that the levels of the Sherali--Adams (SA) hierarchy of linear programming relaxations applied to fractional isomorphism interleave in power with the levels of a well-known color-refinement heuristic for graph isomorphism called the Weisfeiler--Lehman algorithm, or, equivalently, with the levels of indistinguishability in a logic with counting quantifiers and a bounded number of variables. This tight connection has quite striking consequences. For example, it follows immediately from a deep result of Grohe in the context of logics with counting quantifiers that a fixed number of levels of SA suffice to determine isomorphism of planar and minor-free graphs. We also offer applications in both finite model theory and polyhedral combinatorics. First, we show that certain properties of graphs, such as that of having a flow circulation of a prescribed value, are definable in the infinitary logic with counting with a bounded number of variables. Second, we exploit a lower bound construction due to Cai, Fürer, and Immerman in the context of counting logics to give simple explicit instances that show that the SA relaxations of the vertex-cover and cut polytopes do not reach their integer hulls for up to $\Omega(n)$ levels, where $n$ is the number of vertices in the graph.

Environmental Monitoring using Image Analysis

Tärkeä tehtävä ympäristön tarkkailussa on arvioida ympäristön nykyinen tila ja ihmisen siihen aiheuttamat muutokset sekä analysoida ja etsiä näiden yhtenäiset suhteet. Ympäristön muuttumista voidaan hallita keräämällä ja analysoimalla tietoa. Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu vesikasvillisuudessa hai vainuja muutoksia käyttäen etäältä hankittua mittausdataa ja kuvan analysointimenetelmiä. Ympäristön tarkkailuun on käytetty Suomen suurimmasta järvestä Saimaasta vuosina 1996 ja 1999 otettuja ilmakuvia. Ensimmäinen kuva-analyysin vaihe on geometrinen korjaus, jonka tarkoituksena on kohdistaa ja suhteuttaa otetut kuvat samaan koordinaattijärjestelmään. Toinen vaihe on kohdistaa vastaavat paikalliset alueet ja tunnistaa kasvillisuuden muuttuminen. Kasvillisuuden tunnistamiseen on käytetty erilaisia lähestymistapoja sisältäen valvottuja ja valvomattomia tunnistustapoja. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin aitoa, kohinoista mittausdataa, minkä perusteella tehdyt kokeet antoivat hyviä tuloksia tutkimuksen onnistumisesta.

Absoluuttisten solmukoordinaattien menetelmä kuorimaisten kappaleiden mallinnuksessa

Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää nopeasti konvergoiva kuorielementti epälineaarisesti joustavien kappaleiden analysointiin. Kuorielementti perustuu absoluuttisten solmukoordinaattien menetelmään ja se hyödyntää kaarevuuden kuvausta elastisten voimien määrityksessä. Kehitettyä elementtiä verrattiin kontinuumimekaniikalla kehitettyyn kuorielementtiin ja kaupallisen elementtimenetelmän kuorielementtiin. Yksinkertaisimman kuormitustapauksen tuloksia verrattiin teknisen taivutusteorian mukaiseen analyyttiseen ratkaisuun. Staattisten testien tulokset tässä työssä kehitetyllä kuorielementillä vastasivat hyvin kaupallisella elementtimenetelmällä saatuja tuloksia. Deformaatioiden ollessa geometrisesti lineaarisella alueella, kehitetyllä kuorielementillä saadut tulokset vastasivat paremmin sekä analyyttistä ratkaisua että kaupallisella elementtimenetelmällä saatuja tuloksia kuin aiemman kontinuumimekaniikkaan perustuvan kuorielementin tulokset. Kehitetyn kuorielementin ongelmana verrattuna kontinuumimekaniikkaan perustuvaan elementtiin on monimutkaisempi kinematiikan kuvaus. Tästä on seurauksena laskenta-ajan huomattava kasvaminen. Jatkossa kannattaisi keskittyä numeeristen ratkaisumenetelmien kehittämiseen.

Standardisation process of Universal Mobile Telecommunication System in Third Generation Partnership Project

Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) on organisaatio, joka määrittelee ja ylläpitää kolmannen sukupolven matkapuhelinverkon standardeja. Organisaatio luotiin monien eri standardointielinten toimesta havaittaessa, ettei maailmanlaajuista kolmannen sukupolven matkapuhelinteknologiaa voitaisi määritellä ilman laajaa yhteistyötä. 3GPP:ssä standardointityö on jakautunut usealle tekniselle määrittelyryhmälle. Jokaisen ryhmän tehtävänä on kehittää määrittelyjä ja raportteja omalla vastuualueellaan. 3GPP:ssä määrittelytyötä tehdään samanaikaisesti teknillisten määrittelyryhmien välillä. Tämä vaatii tiukkoja sääntöjä määrittelyjen luonti-, hyväksyntä- ja ylläpitotehtäviin. Vain siten on mahdollista hallita määrittelyihin tulevia muutoksia ja tarvittavaa kokonaistyömäärää. Tämä diplomityö kuvaa 3GPP:n määrittelemän UMTS-teknologian. Työssä keskitytään tarkemmin 3GPP-organisaation rakenteeseen, määritysten tekemiseen ja työskentelytapoihin. Tämä diplomityö osoittaa millainen organisaatio ja säännöt vaaditaan maailmanlaajuisen matkapuhelinjärjestelmän kehittämiseen.

Ultrastructural study of spermiogenesis and the spermatozoon of the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009, a parasite of the catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) (Siluriformes, Clariidae)

Spermiogenesis in the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009 shows typical characteristics of the type I spermiogenesis. These include the formation of distal cytoplasmic protrusions forming the differentiation zones, lined by cortical microtubules and containing two centrioles. An electron-dense material is present in the apical region of the differentiation zone during the early stages of spermiogenesis. Each centriole is associated to a striated rootlet, being separated by an intercentriolar body. Two free and unequal flagella originate from the centrioles and develop on the lateral sides of the differentiation zone. A median cytoplasmic process is formed between the flagella. Later these flagella rotate, become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process and finally fuse proximodistally with the latter. It is interesting to note that both flagellar growth and rotation are asynchronous. Later, the nucleus enlarges and penetrates into the spermatid body. Finally, the ring of arching membranes is strangled and the young spermatozoon is detached from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon presents two axonemes of the 9 +"1" trepaxonematan pattern, crested body, parallel nucleus and cortical microtubules, and glycogen granules. Thus, it corresponds to the type II spermatozoon, described in almost all Proteocephalidea. The anterior extremity of the gamete is characterized by the presence of an apical cone surrounded by the lateral projections of the crested body. An arc formed by some thick and parallel cortical microtubules appears at the level of the centriole. They surround the centriole and later the first axoneme. This arc of electron-dense microtubules disorganizes when the second axoneme appears, and then two parallel rows of thin cortical microtubules are observed. The posterior extremity of the male gamete exhibits some cortical microtubules. This type of posterior extremity has never been described in proteocephalidean cestodes. The ultrastructural features of the spermatozoon/spermiogenesis of the Proteocephalidea species are analyzed and compared.

Ultrastructural study of spermiogenesis and the spermatozoon of the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009, a parasite of the catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) (Siluriformes, Clariidae)

Spermiogenesis in the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009 shows typical characteristics of the type I spermiogenesis. These include the formation of distal cytoplasmic protrusions forming the differentiation zones, lined by cortical microtubules and containing two centrioles. An electron-dense material is present in the apical region of the differentiation zone during the early stages of spermiogenesis. Each centriole is associated to a striated rootlet, being separated by an intercentriolar body. Two free and unequal flagella originate from the centrioles and develop on the lateral sides of the differentiation zone. A median cytoplasmic process is formed between the flagella. Later these flagella rotate, become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process and finally fuse proximodistally with the latter. It is interesting to note that both flagellar growth and rotation are asynchronous. Later, the nucleus enlarges and penetrates into the spermatid body. Finally, the ring of arching membranes is strangled and the young spermatozoon is detached from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon presents two axonemes of the 9 +"1" trepaxonematan pattern, crested body, parallel nucleus and cortical microtubules, and glycogen granules. Thus, it corresponds to the type II spermatozoon, described in almost all Proteocephalidea. The anterior extremity of the gamete is characterized by the presence of an apical cone surrounded by the lateral projections of the crested body. An arc formed by some thick and parallel cortical microtubules appears at the level of the centriole. They surround the centriole and later the first axoneme. This arc of electron-dense microtubules disorganizes when the second axoneme appears, and then two parallel rows of thin cortical microtubules are observed. The posterior extremity of the male gamete exhibits some cortical microtubules. This type of posterior extremity has never been described in proteocephalidean cestodes. The ultrastructural features of the spermatozoon/spermiogenesis of the Proteocephalidea species are analyzed and compared.

Context-based services for mobile devices

The subject of this master’s thesis was developing a context-based reminder service for mobile devices. Possible sources of context were identified and analyzed. One such source is geographical location obtained via a GPS receiver. These receivers consume a lot of power and techniques and algorithms for reducing power consumptions were proposed and analyzed. The service was implemented as an application on a series 60 mobile phone. The application requirements, user interface and architecture are presented. The end-user experiences are discussed and possible future development and research areas are presented.

The reform of the European Energy Tax Directive reform : effect on prices

[spa] Para hacer frente a los riesgos relacionados con la contaminación atmosférica, es ampliamente aceptada la necesidad de instrumentos de política encaminados a reducir las emisiones. La intervención tiene por objeto reducir las conductas contaminantes y incentivar una conducta más respetuosa y el uso de tecnologías más eficientes. La Unión Europea cuenta con dos importantes mecanismos económicos para el control de emisiones a escala europea: la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos, un instrumento de fiscalidad ambiental aprobado en 2003 que afecta el precio de los productos energéticos, y el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, introducido en 2005, que afecta directamente a la cantidad de emisiones de CO2. En 2011, la Comisión Europea propuso una nueva versión de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos. El objetivo principal de la propuesta es aumentar la eficacia del instrumento a través de una mayor presión fiscal sobre los productos energéticos y de coordinar este instrumento de fiscalidad medioambiental con el sistema de comercio de los derechos de emisiones, para establecer una señal de precio de CO2 coherente para todos los sectores. Sin embargo, en mayo de 2012 el Parlamento Europeo bloqueó la propuesta de la nueva versión del impuesto, y el proceso de actualización se detuvo. La preocupación principal parecía ser el efecto de dicha propuesta en la competitividad, en particular para los sectores que serían los más afectados dado el uso intensivo de los productos energéticos, como el sector del transporte. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar el efecto que la reforma de la directiva sobre los impuestos energéticos podría tener sobre el nivel de precios, en particular en los países de la Unión Europea donde esta reforma implicaría un aumento de los impuestos energéticos. Utilizando datos del proyecto “World Input-Output Database”, la principal conclusión es que el nuevo sistema de impuestos energéticos tendría un impacto muy bajo sobre los precios. Por lo tanto, dado que los precios no serían fuertemente afectados por la reforma, no habrá inconvenientes para la competitividad y implicaciones en términos de distribución, pero, por otro lado, este resultado también implica una baja capacidad de esta reforma para provocar cambios en el consumo y la producción hacia menos presiones ambientales.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

MorphoGraphX: A platform for quantifying morphogenesis in 4D.

Morphogenesis emerges from complex multiscale interactions between genetic and mechanical processes. To understand these processes, the evolution of cell shape, proliferation and gene expression must be quantified. This quantification is usually performed either in full 3D, which is computationally expensive and technically challenging, or on 2D planar projections, which introduces geometrical artifacts on highly curved organs. Here we present MorphoGraphX ( www.MorphoGraphX.org), a software that bridges this gap by working directly with curved surface images extracted from 3D data. In addition to traditional 3D image analysis, we have developed algorithms to operate on curved surfaces, such as cell segmentation, lineage tracking and fluorescence signal quantification. The software's modular design makes it easy to include existing libraries, or to implement new algorithms. Cell geometries extracted with MorphoGraphX can be exported and used as templates for simulation models, providing a powerful platform to investigate the interactions between shape, genes and growth.