945 resultados para Inherent costs and potential risks


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This study assesses the potential economic impact of climate change on coastal human settlements in the Caribbean, with specific reference to Barbados, and evaluates the costs and benefits of undertaking various adaptation strategies. The aim is to assist Caribbean territories in developing the strategies and capacity needed to deal with the potential impact of severe weather events that are anticipated to occur with increased frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources.This research focuses on how human settlements distributed along the coast of Guyana, especially those in low elevation coastal zones (LECZ)are affected by these impacts. Focusing on three potential transmission sources - sea-level rise, stronger storm hazards and increased precipitation – the study considers the vulnerability of populations in the LECZ areas and estimates the overall threat posed by climate change to coastal populations and infrastructure. Vulnerability to climate change (measured as exposed assets) was estimated for four emission scenarios as outlined by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), namely the A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios for the period 2010 to 2100 and as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using global circulation models (GCM) and storm surge hazard maps.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The current context is unique in relation to the teaching of evolution in Brazil and the population's perception of evolution. On the one hand, it is said often about Darwinism in various media, especially due to the relatively recent commemoration of the two hundred years of the birth of Charles Darwin and one hundred and fifty years of the launch of the book The Origin of Species. On the other hand, it is clear, in recent years, a timid movement, more worryingly, in favor of equitable approach of creationist and evolutionist theories in the classroom. This article is a part of a research whose goal is to raise the design that Brazilian respondents have about the Darwinian view (which disregards the divine influence in the evolution of the species). The instrument used for data collection is a questionnaire, type Likert scale, which consists of a series of statements in which respondents must express their degree of agreement or disagreement with each statement. In this study, we present the results of the statement. "The thought of Darwin, which does not consider God as a participant in the process of evolution, is...". Analysis correlated with data on religion and education of the respondents are also held. The results point to a tendency of respondents not to accept the Darwinian view that disregards God's interference in the evolutionary process. The data also show that respondents' choices are influenced by religion and education. The frequency of responses that tend to accept the Darwinian view (which disregards the divine participation in the evolution of the species) is higher among respondents with higher levels of education. Adherents to religions "evangelical" tend to deny this view more often than followers of other religions. Given the potential risks of inserting creationist approaches in school education, it is necessary a discussion of the possible impacts of this rejection of Darwin's thinking (which does not consider God as a participant in the evolutionary process), indicated here, in the teaching of evolution. This work was supported by FAPEMIG.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Over the last decades, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) has been increasing globally such that nowadays the disease constitutes an important outcome related to early mortality among adults. In parallel with the high prevalence, healthcare costs related to DM treatment have increased significantly, exacerbating its burden on modern society. The scientific literature points out that obesity and physical inactivity have a central role in the development of most DM cases. In fact, either physical exercise practice or an increase in the level of physical activity, constitute relevant tools in the guidelines for treatment of the disease. On the other hand, the effect of physical activity on the economic consequences of DM is not completely clear. The identification of the actual burden of lifestyle changes on the reduction of healthcare costs related to DM is relevant, primarily for developing nations, where it could represent a cheaper strategy for treating the disease and its complications than paying for drug treatment, which is commonly related to collateral effects. That being said, the prevention of DM and other diseases and consequently the mitigation of the costs related to these outcomes seem to depend essentially on the promotion of healthy habits. The aim of the present review was therefore to discuss recent evidence on the effects of physical activity/exercise on mitigation of health care cost related to DM.

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The use of medicinal plants among pregnant women and lactating is a common practice in diverse countries. However, many medicinal plants are contraindicated during pregnancy and lactating, due to various adverse effects, such as teratogenic, embryotoxic and abortive effects, exposing these women, their fetus and babies to health unknown risks. Thus, the purpose of this commentary, was to analyze the perception about the use of medicinal plants by pregnant women and lactating registered in the "baby on board" NGO, Araraquara, São Paulo state, Brazil, between 2010 at 2013. The group was constituted by 48 women, between the first and last trimester of pregnancy or whilst breastfeeding. Information was collected during group meetings by oral interview, using a questionnaire, as script. The nature of the study was a qualitative analysis. The results were based on reports about the use of medicinal plants by pregnant women during group meetings: use, indication of use, knowledge about risks. All participants received written and oral information about the study and they gave a written informed consent. The use of medicinal plants is a reality among pregnant and lactating women of the "baby on board" NGO. They reported that they feel that "natural" products are not harmful for their health. The primary information sources for the majority of women about medicinal plants during pregnancy are family, neighbors and herbalists. The plants most cited (in popular name in Brazil) were: senna, chamomile, boldo, lemon balm, lemon grass. They were used mainly for: nausea, heartburn, indigestion, flatulence, intestinal and abdominal pain, anxiety, intestinal constipation and low milk production. The pregnant and lactating women lacked knowledge about the health risks of the use of medicinal plants and herbal medicines in pregnancy and lactation. They also reported difficulties in clarifying some questions about the use of medicinal plants with their doctors. The results of the present study showed that educative actions about the rational use of medicinal plants in pregnancy and breastfeeding could be part of the operating protocols to promote the maternal and child health programs in Araraquara. Thus, our results also suggest the importance of creating institutionalized places, to the implementation of continued education programs about rational use of medicinal plants in pregnancy and lactation. These targeted programs are not only for health professionals, but also for community members, pregnant women and breastfeeding. Our results pointed out the importance of guidance of doctors and healthcare professionals on the scientific studies about medicinal plants and herbal medicines and the risk/benefit of using herbs during pregnancy. Finally, it is noted the importance of the health professionals to inform women of childbearing on risks to their health, as well as on possibilities of utilization of herbs during fertile period, giving special attention to the potential risk of self-medication.

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Livestock face complex foraging options associated with optimizing nutrient intake while being able to avoid areas posing risk of parasites or disease. Areas of tall nutrient-rich swards around fecal deposits may be attractive for grazing, but might incur fitness costs from parasites. We use the example of dairy cattle and the risks of tuberculosis transmission posed to them by pastures contaminated with badger excreta to examine this trade-off. A risk may be posed either by aerosolized inhalation through investigation or by ingestion via grazing contaminated swards. We quantified the levels of investigation and grazing of 150 dairy cows at badger latrines (accumulations of feces and urine) and crossing points (urination-only sites). Grazing behavior was compared between strip-grazed and rotation-grazed fields. Strip grazing had fields subdivided for grazing periods of <24 h, whereas rotational grazing involved access to whole fields for 1 to 7 d each. A higher proportion of the herd investigated badger latrines than crossing points or controls. Cattle initially avoided swards around badger latrines but not around crossing points. Avoidance periods were shorter in strip- compared with rotation-grazing systems. In rotation-grazing management, latrines were avoided for longer times, but there were more investigative contacts than with strip-grazing management. If investigation is a major route of tuberculosis transmission, the risk to cattle is greatest in extensive rotation-grazing systems. However, if ingestion of fresh urine is the primary method of transmission, strip-grazing management may pose a greater threat. Farming systems affect the level and type of contact between livestock and wildlife excreta and thus the risks of disease.

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Scenario-based analyses were computed for benefits and costs linked with hypothetical oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaigns to contain or eliminate skunk-variant rabies in skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in California, USA. Scenario 1 assumed baiting eight zones (43,388 km2 total) that comprised 73% of known skunk rabies locations in the state. Scenario 2 also assumed baiting these eight zones, but further assumed that added benefits would result from preventing the spread of skunk-variant rabies into Los Angeles County, USA. Scenarios assumed a fixed bait cost ($1.24 each) but varied campaigns (one, two and three annual ORV applications), densities of baits (37.5/km2, 75/km2 and 150/km2), levels of prevention (50%, 75%, and 100%), and contingency expenditures if rabies recurred (20%, 40%, and 60% of campaign costs). Prorating potential annual benefits during a 12-yr time horizon yielded benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) between 0.16 and 2.91 and between 0.34 and 6.35 for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Economic issues relevant to potentially managing skunk-variant rabies with ORV are discussed.

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Abstract Yellowstone National Park is located over a hot spot under the North American tectonic plate and holds a potentially explosive super-volcano that has the ability to cause deadly consequences on the North American continent. After an eruption the surrounding region would see the greatest devastation, covered by pyroclastic deposits and thick ash fall exterminating most all life and destroying all structures in its path. In landscapes of greater distance from the event the consequences will be less dramatic yet still substantial. Records of previous eruption data from the Yellowstone super-volcano show that the ash fall out from the eruption can cover areas as large as one million square kilometers and could leave Nebraska covered in ash up to 10 centimeters thick. This would cause destruction of agriculture, extensive damage to structures, decreased temperatures, and potential respiratory hazards. The effects of volcanic ash on the human respiratory system have been shown to cause acute symptoms from heavy exposure. Symptoms include nasal irritation, throat irritation, coughing, and if preexisting conditions are present some can develop bronchial symptoms, which can last for a few days. People with bronchitis and asthma are shown to experience airway irritation and uncomfortable breathing. In most occurrences, exposure of volcanic ash is too short to cause long-term health hazards. Wearing facial protection can alleviate much of the symptoms. Most of the long-term ramifications of the eruption will be from the atmospheric changes caused from disruption of solar radiation, which will affect much of the global population. The most pertinent concerns for Nebraska citizens are from the accumulation of ash deposits over the landscape and the climatic perturbations. Potential mitigation procedures are essential to prepare our essentially unaware population of the threat that they may soon face if the volcano continues on its eruption cycle.

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The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a rude reminder of the risks inherent in an economy dependent upon petroleum. But there's a quieter crisis in the other gulf - the Persian Gulf - that should call Americans' attention to the even more severe consequences of relying upon imported oil. The costs of using the military to protect the transport of oil from the most turbulent part of the world should convince our country's policymakers to increase investments in researching and developing affordable, American-made clean-burning alternative fuels. But, first, we have to understand the real causes, costs and consequences of importing 12.9 million barrels of oil per day, which make up nearly 60 percent of U.S. oil consumption at a total direct cost of roughly $300 billion per year.

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In the last few years, the European Union (EU) has become greatly concerned about the environmental costs of road transport in Europe as a result of the constant growth in the market share of trucks and the steady decline in the market share of railroads. In order to reverse this trend, the EU is promoting the implementation of additional charges for heavy goods vehicles (HGV) on the trunk roads of the EU countries. However, the EU policy is being criticised because it does not address the implementation of charges to internalise the external costs produced by automobiles and other transport modes such as railroad. In this paper, we first describe the evolution of the HGV charging policy in the EU, and then assess its practical implementation across different European countries. Second, and of greater significance, by using the case study of Spain, we evaluate to what extent the current fees on trucks and trains reflect their social marginal costs, and consequently lead to an allocative-efficient outcome. We found that for the average case in Spain the truck industry meets more of the marginal social cost produced by it than does the freight railroad industry. The reason for this lies in the large sums of money paid by truck companies in fuel taxes, and the subsidies that continue to be granted by the government to the railroads.

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Studies involving amplified fragment length polymorphism (cDNA-AFLP) have often used polyacrylamide gels with radiolabeled primers in order to establish best primer combinations, to analyze, and to recover transcript-derived fragments. Use of automatic sequencer to establish best primer combinations is convenient, because it saves time, reduces costs and risks of contamination with radioactive material and acrylamide, and allows objective band-matching and more precise evaluation of transcript-derived fragments intensities. This study aimed at examining the gene expression of commercial cultivars of P. guajava subjected to water and mechanical injury stresses, combining analyses by automatic sequencer and fluorescent kits for polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Firstly, 64 combinations of EcoRI and MseI primers were tested. Ten combinations with higher number of polymorphic fragments were then selected for transcript-derived fragments recovering and cluster analysis, involving 45 saplings of P. guajava. Two groups were obtained, one composed by the control samplings, and another formed by samplings undergoing stress, with no clear distinction between stress treatments. The results revealed the convenience of using a combination of automatic sequencer and fluorescent kits for polyacrylamide gel electrophoreses to examine gene expression profiles. The Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean analysis using Euclidean distances points out a similar induced response mechanism of P. guajava undergoing water stress and mechanical injury.

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The relation between the intercepted light and orchard productivity was considered linear, although this dependence seems to be more subordinate to planting system rather than light intensity. At whole plant level not always the increase of irradiance determines productivity improvement. One of the reasons can be the plant intrinsic un-efficiency in using energy. Generally in full light only the 5 – 10% of the total incoming energy is allocated to net photosynthesis. Therefore preserving or improving this efficiency becomes pivotal for scientist and fruit growers. Even tough a conspicuous energy amount is reflected or transmitted, plants can not avoid to absorb photons in excess. The chlorophyll over-excitation promotes the reactive species production increasing the photoinhibition risks. The dangerous consequences of photoinhibition forced plants to evolve a complex and multilevel machine able to dissipate the energy excess quenching heat (Non Photochemical Quenching), moving electrons (water-water cycle , cyclic transport around PSI, glutathione-ascorbate cycle and photorespiration) and scavenging the generated reactive species. The price plants must pay for this equipment is the use of CO2 and reducing power with a consequent decrease of the photosynthetic efficiency, both because some photons are not used for carboxylation and an effective CO2 and reducing power loss occurs. Net photosynthesis increases with light until the saturation point, additional PPFD doesn’t improve carboxylation but it rises the efficiency of the alternative pathways in energy dissipation but also ROS production and photoinhibition risks. The wide photo-protective apparatus, although is not able to cope with the excessive incoming energy, therefore photodamage occurs. Each event increasing the photon pressure and/or decreasing the efficiency of the described photo-protective mechanisms (i.e. thermal stress, water and nutritional deficiency) can emphasize the photoinhibition. Likely in nature a small amount of not damaged photosystems is found because of the effective, efficient and energy consuming recovery system. Since the damaged PSII is quickly repaired with energy expense, it would be interesting to investigate how much PSII recovery costs to plant productivity. This PhD. dissertation purposes to improve the knowledge about the several strategies accomplished for managing the incoming energy and the light excess implication on photo-damage in peach. The thesis is organized in three scientific units. In the first section a new rapid, non-intrusive, whole tissue and universal technique for functional PSII determination was implemented and validated on different kinds of plants as C3 and C4 species, woody and herbaceous plants, wild type and Chlorophyll b-less mutant and monocot and dicot plants. In the second unit, using a “singular” experimental orchard named “Asymmetric orchard”, the relation between light environment and photosynthetic performance, water use and photoinhibition was investigated in peach at whole plant level, furthermore the effect of photon pressure variation on energy management was considered on single leaf. In the third section the quenching analysis method suggested by Kornyeyev and Hendrickson (2007) was validate on peach. Afterwards it was applied in the field where the influence of moderate light and water reduction on peach photosynthetic performances, water requirements, energy management and photoinhibition was studied. Using solar energy as fuel for life plant is intrinsically suicidal since the high constant photodamage risk. This dissertation would try to highlight the complex relation existing between plant, in particular peach, and light analysing the principal strategies plants developed to manage the incoming light for deriving the maximal benefits as possible minimizing the risks. In the first instance the new method proposed for functional PSII determination based on P700 redox kinetics seems to be a valid, non intrusive, universal and field-applicable technique, even because it is able to measure in deep the whole leaf tissue rather than the first leaf layers as fluorescence. Fluorescence Fv/Fm parameter gives a good estimate of functional PSII but only when data obtained by ad-axial and ab-axial leaf surface are averaged. In addition to this method the energy quenching analysis proposed by Kornyeyev and Hendrickson (2007), combined with the photosynthesis model proposed by von Caemmerer (2000) is a forceful tool to analyse and study, even in the field, the relation between plant and environmental factors such as water, temperature but first of all light. “Asymmetric” training system is a good way to study light energy, photosynthetic performance and water use relations in the field. At whole plant level net carboxylation increases with PPFD reaching a saturating point. Light excess rather than improve photosynthesis may emphasize water and thermal stress leading to stomatal limitation. Furthermore too much light does not promote net carboxylation improvement but PSII damage, in fact in the most light exposed plants about 50-60% of the total PSII is inactivated. At single leaf level, net carboxylation increases till saturation point (1000 – 1200 μmolm-2s-1) and light excess is dissipated by non photochemical quenching and non net carboxylative transports. The latter follows a quite similar pattern of Pn/PPFD curve reaching the saturation point at almost the same photon flux density. At middle-low irradiance NPQ seems to be lumen pH limited because the incoming photon pressure is not enough to generate the optimum lumen pH for violaxanthin de-epoxidase (VDE) full activation. Peach leaves try to cope with the light excess increasing the non net carboxylative transports. While PPFD rises the xanthophyll cycle is more and more activated and the rate of non net carboxylative transports is reduced. Some of these alternative transports, such as the water-water cycle, the cyclic transport around the PSI and the glutathione-ascorbate cycle are able to generate additional H+ in lumen in order to support the VDE activation when light can be limiting. Moreover the alternative transports seems to be involved as an important dissipative way when high temperature and sub-optimal conductance emphasize the photoinhibition risks. In peach, a moderate water and light reduction does not determine net carboxylation decrease but, diminishing the incoming light and the environmental evapo-transpiration request, stomatal conductance decreases, improving water use efficiency. Therefore lowering light intensity till not limiting levels, water could be saved not compromising net photosynthesis. The quenching analysis is able to partition absorbed energy in the several utilization, photoprotection and photo-oxidation pathways. When recovery is permitted only few PSII remained un-repaired, although more net PSII damage is recorded in plants placed in full light. Even in this experiment, in over saturating light the main dissipation pathway is the non photochemical quenching; at middle-low irradiance it seems to be pH limited and other transports, such as photorespiration and alternative transports, are used to support photoprotection and to contribute for creating the optimal trans-thylakoidal ΔpH for violaxanthin de-epoxidase. These alternative pathways become the main quenching mechanisms at very low light environment. Another aspect pointed out by this study is the role of NPQ as dissipative pathway when conductance becomes severely limiting. The evidence that in nature a small amount of damaged PSII is seen indicates the presence of an effective and efficient recovery mechanism that masks the real photodamage occurring during the day. At single leaf level, when repair is not allowed leaves in full light are two fold more photoinhibited than the shaded ones. Therefore light in excess of the photosynthetic optima does not promote net carboxylation but increases water loss and PSII damage. The more is photoinhibition the more must be the photosystems to be repaired and consequently the energy and dry matter to allocate in this essential activity. Since above the saturation point net photosynthesis is constant while photoinhibition increases it would be interesting to investigate how photodamage costs in terms of tree productivity. An other aspect of pivotal importance to be further widened is the combined influence of light and other environmental parameters, like water status, temperature and nutrition on peach light, water and phtosyntate management.

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There is a widening consensus around the fact that, in many developed countries, food production-consumption patterns are in recent years interested by a process of deep change towards diversification and re-localisation practices, as a counter-tendency to the trend to the increasing disconnection between farming and food, producers and consumers. The relevance of these initiatives doesn't certainly lie on their economic dimension, but rather in their intense diffusion and growth rate, their spontaneous and autonomous nature and, especially, their intrinsic innovative potential. These dynamics involve a wide range of actors around local food patterns, embedding short food supply chains initiatives within a more complex and wider process of rural development, based on principles of sustainability, multifunctionality and valorisation of endogenous resources. In this work we have been analysing these features through a multi-level perspective, with reference to the dynamics between niche and regime and the inherent characteristics of the innovation paths. We apply this approach, through a qualitative methodology, to the analysis of the experience of farmers’ markets and Solidarity-Based Consumers Groups (Gruppi di Acquisto Solidale) ongoing in Tuscany, seeking to highlight the dynamics that are affecting the establishment of this alternative food production-consumption model (and its related innovative potential) from within and from without. To verify if and in which conditions they can constitute a niche, a protected space where radical innovations can develop, we make reference to the three interrelated analytic dimensions of socio-technical systems: the actors (i.e. individuals. social groups, organisations), the rules and institutions system, and the artefacts (i.e. the material and immaterial contexts in which the actors move). Through it, we analyse the innovative potential of niches and the level of their structuration and , then, the mechanisms of system transition, focusing on the new dynamics within the niche and between the niche and the policy regime emerging after the growth of interest by mass-media and public institutions and their direct involvement in the initiatives. Following the development of these significant experiences, we explore more deeply social, economic, cultural, political and organisational factors affecting innovations in face-to-face interactions, underpinning the critical aspects (sharing of alternative values, coherence at individual choices level, frictions on organisational aspects, inclusion/exclusion, attitudes towards integration at territorial level), towards uncovering until to the emergence of tensions and the risks of opportunistic behaviours that might arise from their growth. Finally, a comparison with similar experiences abroad is drawn (specifically with Provence), in order to detect food for thought, potentially useful for leading regional initiativestowards transition path.

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In this thesis we study three combinatorial optimization problems belonging to the classes of Network Design and Vehicle Routing problems that are strongly linked in the context of the design and management of transportation networks: the Non-Bifurcated Capacitated Network Design Problem (NBP), the Period Vehicle Routing Problem (PVRP) and the Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (PDPTW). These problems are NP-hard and contain as special cases some well known difficult problems such as the Traveling Salesman Problem and the Steiner Tree Problem. Moreover, they model the core structure of many practical problems arising in logistics and telecommunications. The NBP is the problem of designing the optimum network to satisfy a given set of traffic demands. Given a set of nodes, a set of potential links and a set of point-to-point demands called commodities, the objective is to select the links to install and dimension their capacities so that all the demands can be routed between their respective endpoints, and the sum of link fixed costs and commodity routing costs is minimized. The problem is called non- bifurcated because the solution network must allow each demand to follow a single path, i.e., the flow of each demand cannot be splitted. Although this is the case in many real applications, the NBP has received significantly less attention in the literature than other capacitated network design problems that allow bifurcation. We describe an exact algorithm for the NBP that is based on solving by an integer programming solver a formulation of the problem strengthened by simple valid inequalities and four new heuristic algorithms. One of these heuristics is an adaptive memory metaheuristic, based on partial enumeration, that could be applied to a wider class of structured combinatorial optimization problems. In the PVRP a fleet of vehicles of identical capacity must be used to service a set of customers over a planning period of several days. Each customer specifies a service frequency, a set of allowable day-combinations and a quantity of product that the customer must receive every time he is visited. For example, a customer may require to be visited twice during a 5-day period imposing that these visits take place on Monday-Thursday or Monday-Friday or Tuesday-Friday. The problem consists in simultaneously assigning a day- combination to each customer and in designing the vehicle routes for each day so that each customer is visited the required number of times, the number of routes on each day does not exceed the number of vehicles available, and the total cost of the routes over the period is minimized. We also consider a tactical variant of this problem, called Tactical Planning Vehicle Routing Problem, where customers require to be visited on a specific day of the period but a penalty cost, called service cost, can be paid to postpone the visit to a later day than that required. At our knowledge all the algorithms proposed in the literature for the PVRP are heuristics. In this thesis we present for the first time an exact algorithm for the PVRP that is based on different relaxations of a set partitioning-like formulation. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is tested on a set of instances from the literature and on a new set of instances. Finally, the PDPTW is to service a set of transportation requests using a fleet of identical vehicles of limited capacity located at a central depot. Each request specifies a pickup location and a delivery location and requires that a given quantity of load is transported from the pickup location to the delivery location. Moreover, each location can be visited only within an associated time window. Each vehicle can perform at most one route and the problem is to satisfy all the requests using the available vehicles so that each request is serviced by a single vehicle, the load on each vehicle does not exceed the capacity, and all locations are visited according to their time window. We formulate the PDPTW as a set partitioning-like problem with additional cuts and we propose an exact algorithm based on different relaxations of the mathematical formulation and a branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm. The new algorithm is tested on two classes of problems from the literature and compared with a recent branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm from the literature.