Longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness in childhood

• Evidence from cross-sectional studies1,2 suggests that choroidal thickness (ChT) varies with age and refractive error in childhood. However, to date there have been no longitudinal studies examining changes in pediatric ChT. • In this prospective study, the longitudinal changes in ChT and its relationship with eye growth were examined in a population of normal children with a range of refractive errors.

Measurements of partial discharges-corrections to erroneous counts occurring in a cumulative pulse-counting system

The discharge pulse rates at different magnitude levels are often used as criteria for monitoring the partial-discharge aging of insulation systems. Use of suggested corrections for errors in cumulative probability counting leads to better use of available counters.

A critical analysis of the shear difference method

The shear difference method which is commonly used for the separation of normal stresses using photoelastic techniques depends on the step-by-step integration of one of the differential equations of equilibrium. It is assumed that the isoclinic and the isochromatic parameters measured by the conventional methods pertain to the state of stress at the midpoint of the light path. In practice, a slice thin enough for the above assumption to be true and at the same time thick enough to give differences in the shear-stress values over the thickness is necessary. The paper discusses the errors introduced in the isoclinic and isochromatic values by the conventional methods neglecting the variation of stresses along the light path. It is shown that while the error introduced in the measurement of the isochromatic parameter may not be serious, the error caused in the isoclinic measurement may lead to serious errors. Since the shear-difference method involves step-by-step integration the error introduced will be of a cumulative nature.

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

It has long been thought that tropical rainfall retrievals from satellites have large errors. Here we show, using a new daily 1 degree gridded rainfall data set based on about 1800 gauges from the India Meteorology Department (IMD), that modern satellite estimates are reasonably close to observed rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Daily satellite rainfalls from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP 1DD) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are available since 1998. The high summer monsoon (June-September) rain over the Western Ghats and Himalayan foothills is captured in TMPA data. Away from hilly regions, the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of rainfall (averaged over regions of a few hundred kilometers linear dimension) from both satellite products are about 15% of observations. Satellite data generally underestimate both the mean and variability of rain, but the phase of intraseasonal variations is accurate. On synoptic timescales, TMPA gives reasonable depiction of the pattern and intensity of torrential rain from individual monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions. A pronounced biennial oscillation of seasonal total central India rain is seen in all three data sets, with GPCP 1DD being closest to IMD observations. The new satellite data are a promising resource for the study of tropical rainfall variability.

Human error risk management methodology for rail crack incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

Cochannel Interference in Partially Coherent Communication

Effects of cochannel interference and synchronization error of the carrier phase on the probability of error in binary communications are considered. Several bounds on the probability of error are proposed. The bounds are easy to compute and do not require complete statistical characterization of the errors. They turn out to be simple linear combinations of error probabilities with no cochannel interferences and no phase errors. Several illustrative examples are given which show that the bounds can be tight.