Border Barriers in Agricultural Trade and the Impact of their Elimination: Evidence from East Asia

Abstract: By means of a GTAP based-CGE model, we investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and non-tariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade towards East Asian FTAs. To do that, we first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely-used method derived from the literature on border effects. Next, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does not succeed in incorporating, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and of NTPBs) on GDP.

Industrialization in Indonesia since the 1970s

Introduction: During the period from the latter half of the 1980s until just before the Asian currency crisis in 1997, Indonesia’s economic development had drawn expectations and attention from various quarters, along with Malaysia and Thailand within the same Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In fact, the 1993 report by the World Bank, entitled “East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy,” recognized Indonesia as one of the East Asian economies with the strong economic performance, i.e. sustained economic growth (World Bank [1993]). And it was the manufacturing industry that had been the driving force behind Indonesia’s economic growth during that period. Since the 1997 outbreak of the Asian currency crisis, however, the manufacturing sector in Indonesia has been mired in a situation that rules out the kind of bright prospects it had emanated previously. The Indonesian economy is still in the developing stage, and in accordance with the history of industrial structural changes in other countries, Indonesia’s manufacturing industry can still be expected to serve as the engine of the country’s economic development. But is it really possible in an environment where economic liberalization and globalization are forging ahead? And, what sort of problems have to be dealt with to make it possible? To answer these questions, it is necessary to know the current conditions of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, and to do that, it becomes important to think back on the history of the country’s industrialization. Thus, this paper is intended to retrace and unlock the track of Indonesia’s industrialization up until the establishment of the manufacturing sector in its present form, with the ultimate goal being to give answers to the above-mentioned questions. Subject to an analysis in this paper is the period from the installment of President Soeharto’s administration onward when industrialization of the modern industrial sector2 moved into high gear. 　　　The composition of this paper is outlined below. Section 1 first shows why it is important to examine import substitution and export orientation, both of which are used as the measures of the analysis in this paper, in tracking the history of the industrialization, and then discuss indicators of import substitution and export orientation as well as statistical data and resources needed to develop those indicators. Section 2 clarifies the status of the manufacturing industry among all industries by looking at the composition ratio of the manufacturing industry in terms of value added, imports and exports. Section 3 to 5 cover three periods between 1971 and 1995 and make an analysis of import substitution, export orientation and changes in the industrial structure for each period. Section 3 analyzes the period from 1971 through 1985, when Indonesia pursued the import substitution policy amid the oil boom. Section 4 covers the period from 1985 through 1990, when the packages of deregulatory measures were announced successively under structural adjustment policies made necessary by the fall in oil prices. Section 5 examines the period from 1990 through 1995, which saw the alternate shifts between the overheating of the economy by sharply rising investment by both domestic and foreign investors in the wake of the liberalization of investment, trade and financial services, and polices to cool down the economy. Section 6, which covers the 1995-1999 period straddling the economic crisis, is designed for an analysis of the changes in production trends before and after the economic crisis as well as the changes in the industrial structure. Section 7, after summing up the history of Indonesia’s industrialization examined in the previous sections, discusses problems found in respective sectors and attempts to present future prospects for the country’s manufacturing industry.

The Cuban Economy: A Current Evaluation and Proposals for Necessary Policy Changes

Politicians, social scientists and general readers have noted in both Cuban and international academic forums and periodicals that the well-being enjoyed by the Cuban people in the 1980s has been seriously compromised since the economic crisis of the 1990s. Even for the most skeptical of observers it is clear that this worsening of conditions can be attributed not only to external factors, such as the breakup of the international socialist system, the tightening of the US blockade, and the worldwide economic crisis suffered by underdeveloped countries, but also to internal factors that have kept the country from taking full advantage of the human and material potential available on the island. Although Cuba is currently experiencing an economic recovery from the collapse in GDP in the mid 1990s following the collapse of its ties with the Socialist Bloc, it continues to maintain high import coefficients due to longstanding structural.

Cost Reduction Effects of "pseudo FTAs" in Asia -Application of a price model based on a multilateral I/O table-

This paper examines the repercussion effects on the production cost of industries in Asian countries when some countries eliminate tariffs and import commodity taxes on all imports. This kind of analysis is related in some sense to that measuring the effects of FTAs on economies, and thus may be considered as an analysis of “pseudo FTAs.” Examining a number of combinations of “pseudo FTAs” between China, Japan, and ASEAN, it is found that the case of China plus Japan plus ASEAN is the most effective “pseudo FTA” of the combinations in terms of production cost reduction. The method is a form of price model based on the Asian International Input-Output Table. Almost no studies on price models related to multilateral I/O tables have been implemented thus far.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

Vertical specialisation indicator based on supply-driven input-output model

“Import content of exports”, based on Leontief’s demand-driven input-output model, has been widely used as an indicator to measure a country’s degree of participation in vertical specialisation trade. At a sectoral level, this indicator represents the share of inter-mediates imported by all sectors embodied in a given sector’s exported output. However, this indicator only reflects one aspect of vertical specialisation – the demand side. This paper discusses the possibility of using the input-output model developed by Ghosh to measure the vertical specialisation from the perspective of the supply side. At a sector level, the Ghosh type indicator measures the share of imported intermediates used in a sector’s production that are subsequently embodied in exports by all sectors. We estimate these two indicators of vertical specialisation for 47 selected economies for 1995, 2000, 2005 using the OECD’s harmonized input-output database. In addition, the potential biases of both indicators due to the treatment of net withdrawals in inventories, are also discussed.

Application of factor decomposition techniques to vertical specialisation measurements

The increasing importance of vertical specialisation (VS) trade has been a notable feature of rapid economic globalisation and regional integration. In an attempt to understand countries’ depth of participation in global production chains, many Input-Output based VS indicators have been developed. However, most of them focus on showing the overall magnitude of a country’s VS trade, rather than explaining the roles that specific sectors or products play in VS trade and what factors make the VS change over time. Changes in vertical specialisation indicators are, in fact, determined by mixed and complex factors such as import substitution ratios, types of exported goods and domestic production networks. In this paper, decomposition techniques are applied to VS measurement based on the OECD Input-Output database. The decomposition results not only help us understand the structure of VS at detailed sector and product levels, but also show us the contributions of trade dependency, industrial structures of foreign trade and domestic production system to a country’s vertical specialisation trade.

How does country risk matter for foreign direct investment?

In this paper, we aim to identify the political and financial risk components that matter most for the activities of multinational corporations. Our paper is the first paper to comprehensively examine the impact of various components of not only political risk but also financial risk on inward FDI, from both long-run and short-run perspectives. Using a sample of 93 countries (including 60 developing countries) for the period 1985-2007, we find that among the political risk components, government stability, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, internal conflict, external conflict, corruption, religious tensions, democratic accountability, and ethnic tensions have a close association with FDI flows. In particular, socioeconomic conditions, investment profile, and external conflict appear to be the most influential components of political risk in attracting foreign investment. Among the financial risk components, only exchange rate stability yields statistically significant positive coefficients when estimated only for developing countries. In contrast, current account as a percentage of exports of goods and services, foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, net international liquidity as the number of months of import cover, and current account as a percentage of GDP yield negative coefficients in some specifications. Thus, multinationals do not seem to consider seriously the financial risk of the host country.

Does Quality Matter in the Iron and Scrap Trade?

This paper sheds light on the iron and steel (IS) scrap trade to examine how economic development affects the quality demanded of recyclable resource. A simple model is presented that show a mechanism of how scrap quality impacts the direction of trade due to comparative advantage. We find that economic development in both importing and exporting countries has a positive effect on the quality of traded recyclables. Developed countries that intend to improve the domestic recovery of recyclables should raise the quality of separating recyclables while developing countries should tighten environmental regulations to help decrease the import of recyclables that cause pollution.

Trade policies and trade mis-reporting in Myanmar

While the trade statistics of Myanmar show surpluses for 2007 through 2010, the corresponding statistics of trade partner countries indicate deficits. Such discrepancies in mirror trade statistics are analyzed in connection with the ‘export-first and import-second’ policy provisioning import permissions on permission applicants possessing a sufficient amount of the export-tax-deducted export earnings. Under this policy, the recorded imports and exports of the private sector have been maintaining equilibrium, whereas discrepancies in the mirror statistics have fluctuated. This suggests that traders adjusted mis-reporting in accordance with the supply and demand of the export earnings.

Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar

In the five-year period from 2006 to 2011, the real exchange rate of the Myanmar kyat appreciated 200 percent, signifying that the value of the US dollar in Myanmar diminished to one third of its previous level. While the resource boom is suspected as a source of the real exchange rate appreciation, its aggravation is related to administrative controls on foreign exchange and imports. First, foreign exchange controls prevented replacement of the negotiated transactions of foreign exchange with the bank intermediation. This hampered government interventions in the market. Second, import controls repressed imports, aggravating excess supply of foreign exchange. Relaxation of administrative controls is necessary for moderating currency appreciation.

Political limits on the world oil trade : firm-level evidence from US firms

International politics affect trade patterns, especially for firms in extractive industries. We construct the firm-level dataset for the U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2010 to test whether the state of international relations with the trading partners of the U.S. affect importing behavior of the U.S. firms. To measure "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners we use voting records for the UN General Assembly. We find that the U.S. firms, in fact, import significantly less oil from the political opponents of the U.S. Our conjecture is that the decrease in oil imports is mainly driven by large, vertically-integrated U.S. firms that engage in foreign direct investment (FDI) overseas.

An export strategy and technology networks in the Republic of Korea

In Korea, trade with Japan has had a deficit since the normalization of Japan-Korea diplomatic relations in 1965. Korea’s trade balance with Japan has remained in deficit since then, although Korean companies have become bigger compared to Japanese companies. My hypothesis is that the problem has been caused because Korea introduced technologies from Japan. However, in recent years Korean companies could not introduce technologies through technical cooperation with Japan like in the 1990s. In addition, the Korean government seemed to encourage domestic production for import substitution. Nevertheless, the deficit has continued. I thought it necessary to check my hypothesis in order to discover whether or not it was persuasive.

Value added trade and structure of high-technology exports in China

This study focuses on the technological intensity of China's exports. It first introduces the method of decomposing gross exports by using the Asian international input–output tables. The empirical results indicate that the technological intensity of Chinese exports has been significantly overestimated due to its high dependency on import content, especially in high-technology exports, an area highly dominated by the electronic and electrical equipment sector. Furthermore, a significant portion of value added embodied in China's high-technology exports comes from services and high-technology manufacturers in neighboring economies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

The effects of international politics on oil-exporting developing countries

International politics affects oil trade. But does it affect the oil-exporting developing countries more? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to changes in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To the extent that developing countries have higher hold-up risks because of their weaker institutions, the political effect on oil trade should be more significant in the developing world. We find that oil import decisions are indeed more elastic when firms import from developing countries, although the reverse is true in the short run. Our results suggest that international politics can affect oil revenue and hence long-term development in the developing world.