Impact of city changes and weather on anthropogenic heat flux in Europe 1995–2015

How people live, work, move from place to place, consume and the technologies they use all affect heat emissions in a city which influences urban weather and climate. Here we document changes to a global anthropogenic heat flux (QF) model to enhance its spatial (30′′ × 30′′ to 0.5° × 0.5°) resolution and temporal coverage (historical, current and future). QF is estimated across Europe (1995–2015), considering changes in temperature, population and energy use. While on average QF is small (of the order 1.9–4.6 W m−2 across all the urban areas of Europe), significant spatial variability is documented (maximum 185 W m−2). Changes in energy consumption due to changes in climate are predicted to cause a 13% (11%) increase in QF on summer (winter) weekdays. The largest impact results from changes in temperature conditions which influences building energy use; for winter, with the coldest February on record, the mean flux for urban areas of Europe is 4.56 W m−2 and for summer (warmest July on record) is 2.23 W m−2. Detailed results from London highlight the spatial resolution used to model the QF is critical and must be appropriate for the application at hand, whether scientific understanding or decision making.

Evaluating relative impact of virtual reality system variables on architectural design comprehension and presence - A variable-centered approach using fractional factorial experiment

The relative contributions of five variables (Stereoscopy, screen size, field of view, level of realism and level of detail) of virtual reality systems on spatial comprehension and presence are evaluated here. Using a variable-centered approach instead of an object-centric view as its theoretical basis, the contributions of these five variables and their two-way interactions are estimated through a 25-1 fractional factorial experiment (screening design) of resolution V with 84 subjects. The experiment design, procedure, measures used, creation of scales and indices, results of statistical analysis, their meaning and agenda for future research are elaborated.

Exploring the climatic impact of the continental vegetation on the Mezosoic atmospheric CO2 and climate history

In this contribution, we continue our exploration of the factors defining the Mesozoic climatic history. We improve the Earth system model GEOCLIM designed for long term climate and geochemical reconstructions by adding the explicit calculation of the biome dynamics using the LPJ model. The coupled GEOCLIM-LPJ model thus allows the simultaneous calculation of the climate with a 2-D spatial resolution, the coeval atmospheric CO2, and the continental biome distribution. We found that accounting for the climatic role of the continental vegetation dynamics (albedo change, water cycle and surface roughness modulations) strongly affects the reconstructed geological climate. Indeed the calculated partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 over the Mesozoic is twice the value calculated when assuming a uniform constant vegetation. This increase in CO2 is triggered by a global cooling of the continents, itself triggered by a general increase in continental albedo owing to the development of desertic surfaces. This cooling reduces the CO2 consumption through silicate weathering, and hence results in a compensating increase in the atmospheric CO2 pressure. This study demonstrates that the impact of land plants on climate and hence on atmospheric CO2 is as important as their geochemical effect through the enhancement of chemical weathering of the continental surface. Our GEOCLIM-LPJ simulations also define a climatic baseline for the Mesozoic, around which exceptionally cool and warm events can be identified.

The impact of added cultural distance and cultural diversity on international expansion patterns: a Penrosian perspective

International strategy research has identified a variety of multinational enterprise (MNE) expansion patterns. Some MNEs appear to expand internationally at a stable rate, whereas others expand rapidly in one period and then tend to experience slower growth. The latter pattern suggests the occurrence of the Penrose effect. We identified two determinants of these diverging patterns. First, we propose that high levels of added cultural distance (reflecting expansion into new local contexts) during one period, may negatively affect further international expansion because of dynamic adjustment costs. Second, we suggest that managing a network of subsidiaries operating in a set of local contexts with high cultural diversity, increases environmental and internal governance complexity. Extant cultural diversity of the local contexts where the MNE is active in a first period may therefore discourage adding further cultural distance. We test the hypothesized relationships using a panel of 91 German companies.

Estimating the direct aerosol radiative perturbation: impact of ocean surface representation and aerosol non-sphericity

Atmospheric aerosols are now actively studied, in particular because of their radiative and climate impacts. Estimations of the direct aerosol radiative perturbation, caused by extinction of incident solar radiation, usually rely on radiative transfer codes and involve simplifying hypotheses. This paper addresses two approximations which are widely used for the sake of simplicity and limiting the computational cost of the calculations. Firstly, it is shown that using a Lambertian albedo instead of the more rigorous bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) to model the ocean surface radiative properties leads to large relative errors in the instantaneous aerosol radiative perturbation. When averaging over the day, these errors cancel out to acceptable levels of less than 3% (except in the northern hemisphere winter). The other scope of this study is to address aerosol non-sphericity effects. Comparing an experimental phase function with an equivalent Mie-calculated phase function, we found acceptable relative errors if the aerosol radiative perturbation calculated for a given optical thickness is daily averaged. However, retrieval of the optical thickness of non-spherical aerosols assuming spherical particles can lead to significant errors. This is due to significant differences between the spherical and non-spherical phase functions. Discrepancies in aerosol radiative perturbation between the spherical and non-spherical cases are sometimes reduced and sometimes enhanced if the aerosol optical thickness for the spherical case is adjusted to fit the simulated radiance of the non-spherical case.

The Impact of office productivity cloud computing on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Cloud computing is usually regarded as being energy efficient and thus emitting less greenhouse gases (GHG) than traditional forms of computing. When the energy consumption of Microsoft’s cloud computing Office 365 (O365) and traditional Office 2010 (O2010) software suites were tested and modeled, some cloud services were found to consume more energy than the traditional form. The developed model in this research took into consideration the energy consumption at the three main stages of data transmission; data center, network, and end user device. Comparable products from each suite were selected and activities were defined for each product to represent a different computing type. Microsoft provided highly confidential data for the data center stage, while the networking and user device stages were measured directly. A new measurement and software apportionment approach was defined and utilized allowing the power consumption of cloud services to be directly measured for the user device stage. Results indicated that cloud computing is more energy efficient for Excel and Outlook which consumed less energy and emitted less GHG than the standalone counterpart. The power consumption of the cloud based Outlook (8%) and Excel (17%) was lower than their traditional counterparts. However, the power consumption of the cloud version of Word was 17% higher than its traditional equivalent. A third mixed access method was also measured for Word which emitted 5% more GHG than the traditional version. It is evident that cloud computing may not provide a unified way forward to reduce energy consumption and GHG. Direct conversion from the standalone package into the cloud provision platform can now consider energy and GHG emissions at the software development and cloud service design stage using the methods described in this research.

The origins and impact of proportional representation

This article in the peer-reviewed Oxford Bibliographies series, gives an introduction to the literatures on the varieties, origins, and effects of proportional electoral systems.

Impact of geographical region on urinary metabolomic and plasma fatty acid profiles in subjects with the metabolic syndrome across Europe: the LIPGENE study

The application of metabolomics in multi-centre studies is increasing. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of geographical location on the metabolic profiles of individuals with the metabolic syndrome. Blood and urine samples were collected from 219 adults from seven European centres participating in the LIPGENE project (Diet, genomics and the metabolic syndrome: an integrated nutrition, agro-food, social and economic analysis). Nutrient intakes, BMI, waist:hip ratio, blood pressure, and plasma glucose, insulin and blood lipid levels were assessed. Plasma fatty acid levels and urine were assessed using a metabolomic technique. The separation of three European geographical groups (NW, northwest; NE, northeast; SW, southwest) was identified using partial least-squares discriminant analysis models for urine (R 2 X: 0•33, Q 2: 0•39) and plasma fatty acid (R 2 X: 0•32, Q 2: 0•60) data. The NW group was characterised by higher levels of urinary hippurate and N-methylnicotinate. The NE group was characterised by higher levels of urinary creatine and citrate and plasma EPA (20 : 5 n-3). The SW group was characterised by higher levels of urinary trimethylamine oxide and lower levels of plasma EPA. The indicators of metabolic health appeared to be consistent across the groups. The SW group had higher intakes of total fat and MUFA compared with both the NW and NE groups (P≤ 0•001). The NE group had higher intakes of fibre and n-3 and n-6 fatty acids compared with both the NW and SW groups (all P< 0•001). It is likely that differences in dietary intakes contributed to the separation of the three groups. Evaluation of geographical factors including diet should be considered in the interpretation of metabolomic data from multi-centre studies.

The impact of milk proteins and peptides on blood pressure and vascular function: a review of evidence from human intervention studies.

CVD are the leading cause of death worldwide. Hypertension, a major controllable risk factor of CVD, is intimately associated with vascular dysfunction, a defect which is also now recognised to be a major, modifiable risk factor for the development of CVD. The purpose of the present review was to critically evaluate the evidence for the effects of milk proteins and their associated peptides on blood pressure (BP) and vascular dysfunction. After a detailed literature search, the number of human trials evaluating the antihypertensive effects of casein-derived peptides (excluding isoleucine-proline-proline and valine-proline-proline) was found to be limited; the studies were preliminary with substantial methodological limitations. Likewise, the data from human trials that examined the effects of whey protein and peptides were also scarce and inconsistent. To date, only one study has conducted a comparative investigation on the relative effects of the two main intact milk proteins on BP and vascular function. While both milk proteins were shown to reduce BP, only whey protein improved measures of arterial stiffness. In contrast, a growing number of human trials have produced evidence to support beneficial effects of both milk proteins and peptides on vascular health. However, comparison of the relative outcomes from these trials is difficult owing to variation in the forms of assessment and measures of vascular function. In conclusion, there is an accumulating body of evidence to support positive effects of milk proteins in improving and/or maintaining cardiovascular health. However, the variable quality of the studies that produced this evidence, and the lack of robust, randomised controlled intervention trials, undermines the formulation of firm conclusions on the potential benefits of milk proteins and peptides on vascular health.

Mixed use urban regeneration at Brindleyplace, Birmingham and Gunwharf Quays, Portsmouth: an assessment of the impact on local and national economies

This independent research was commissioned by the British Property Federation. The report examines the local and national economic impact of two major, mixed use schemes in terms of tax revenue, household income, business rates and council tax and jobs creation. A regeneration balance sheet for each scheme is presented in the context of government policy and other related research. The report provides a comprehensive review of government policy and the role of retail and other land uses in regeneration. Highlighting the importance of national and local multiplier effects with detailed statistics drawn from a variety of sources, this fully illustrated colour research report builds up a detailed picture of economic impact of the mixed use regeneration schemes in the local economies of Birmingham and Portsmouth. The report will be of interest to property people, planners and all involved in regeneration and local economies.

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.

Dissociation between the impact of evidence on eye movement target choice and confidence judgements

It has been suggested that the evidence used to support a decision to move our eyes and the confidence we have in that decision are derived from a common source. Alternatively, confidence may be based on further post-decisional processes. In three experiments we examined this. In Experiment 1, participants chose between two targets on the basis of varying levels of evidence (i.e., the direction of motion coherence in a Random-Dot-Kinematogram). They indicated this choice by making a saccade to one of two targets and then indicated their confidence. Saccade trajectory deviation was taken as a measure of the inhibition of the non-selected target. We found that as evidence increased so did confidence and deviations of saccade trajectory away from the non-selected target. However, a correlational analysis suggested they were not related. In Experiment 2 an option to opt-out of the choice was offered on some trials if choice proved too difficult. In this way we isolated trials on which confidence in target selection was high (i.e., when the option to opt-out was available but not taken). Again saccade trajectory deviations were found not to differ in relation to confidence. In Experiment 3 we directly manipulated confidence, such that participants had high or low task confidence. They showed no differences in saccade trajectory deviations. These results support post-decisional accounts of confidence: evidence supporting the decision to move the eyes is reflected in saccade control, but the confidence that we have in that choice is subject to further post-decisional processes.

Impact of variable atmospheric and oceanic form drag on simulations of Arctic sea ice

Over Arctic sea ice, pressure ridges and floe andmelt pond edges all introduce discrete obstructions to the flow of air or water past the ice and are a source of form drag. In current climate models form drag is only accounted for by tuning the air–ice and ice–ocean drag coefficients, that is, by effectively altering the roughness length in a surface drag parameterization. The existing approach of the skin drag parameter tuning is poorly constrained by observations and fails to describe correctly the physics associated with the air–ice and ocean–ice drag. Here, the authors combine recent theoretical developments to deduce the total neutral form drag coefficients from properties of the ice cover such as ice concentration, vertical extent and area of the ridges, freeboard and floe draft, and the size of floes and melt ponds. The drag coefficients are incorporated into the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and show the influence of the new drag parameterization on the motion and state of the ice cover, with the most noticeable being a depletion of sea ice over the west boundary of the Arctic Ocean and over the Beaufort Sea. The new parameterization allows the drag coefficients to be coupled to the sea ice state and therefore to evolve spatially and temporally. It is found that the range of values predicted for the drag coefficients agree with the range of values measured in several regions of the Arctic. Finally, the implications of the new form drag formulation for the spinup or spindown of the Arctic Ocean are discussed.