Special condition wind power forecasting based on Gaussian process and similar historical data

Due to the variability of wind power, it is imperative to accurately and timely forecast the wind generation to enhance the flexibility and reliability of the operation and control of real-time power. Special events such as ramps, spikes are hard to predict with traditional methods using solely recently measured data. In this paper, a new Gaussian Process model with hybrid training data taken from both the local time and historic dataset is proposed and applied to make short-term predictions from 10 minutes to one hour ahead. A key idea is that the similar pattern data in history are properly selected and embedded in Gaussian Process model to make predictions. The results of the proposed algorithms are compared to those of standard Gaussian Process model and the persistence model. It is shown that the proposed method not only reduces magnitude error but also phase error.

Modelling of Organic Rankine Cycle for Waste Heat Recovery Process in Supercritical Condition

Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is the most commonly used method for recovering energy from small sources of heat. The investigation of the ORC in supercritical condition is a new research area as it has a potential to generate high power and thermal efficiency in a waste heat recovery system. This paper presents a steady state ORC model in supercritical condition and its simulations with a real engine’s exhaust data. The key component of ORC, evaporator, is modelled using finite volume method, modelling of all other components of the waste heat recovery system such as pump, expander and condenser are also presented. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of mass flow rate and evaporator outlet temperature on the efficiency of the waste heat recovery process. Additionally, the necessity of maintaining an optimum evaporator outlet temperature is also investigated. Simulation results show that modification of mass flow rate is the key to changing the operating temperature at the evaporator outlet.

The molecular basis of galactosemia - Past, present and future

Galactosemia, an inborn error of galactose metabolism, was first described in the 1900s by von Ruess. The subsequent 100years has seen considerable progress in understanding the underlying genetics and biochemistry of this condition. Initial studies concentrated on increasing the understanding of the clinical manifestations of the disease. However, Leloir's discovery of the pathway of galactose catabolism in the 1940s and 1950s enabled other scientists, notably Kalckar, to link the disease to a specific enzymatic step in the pathway. Kalckar's work established that defects in galactose 1-phosphate uridylyltransferase (GALT) were responsible for the majority of cases of galactosemia. However, over the next three decades it became clear that there were two other forms of galactosemia: type II resulting from deficiencies in galactokinase (GALK1) and type III where the affected enzyme is UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase (GALE). From the 1970s, molecular biology approaches were applied to galactosemia. The chromosomal locations and DNA sequences of the three genes were determined. These studies enabled modern biochemical studies. Structures of the proteins have been determined and biochemical studies have shown that enzymatic impairment often results from misfolding and consequent protein instability. Cellular and model organism studies have demonstrated that reduced GALT or GALE activity results in increased oxidative stress. Thus, after a century of progress, it is possible to conceive of improved therapies including drugs to manipulate the pathway to reduce potentially toxic intermediates, antioxidants to reduce the oxidative stress of cells or use of "pharmacological chaperones" to stabilise the affected proteins.

The nitric oxide ISO photocatalytic reactor system: Measurement of NOx removal activity and capacity

Although the NO removal-based air-purification ISO method ISO 22197-1:2007 is well established, its preconditioning requirements mean that only the initial activity of the photocatalyst under test is measured owing to the often-reported, gradual alteration of the surface kinetics for NO oxidation by air through the accumulation of surface HNO3. Herein, we compare the photocatalytic NO removal abilities of a number of different, common TiO2 materials, surface-saturated with photogenerated HNO3, with their behaviours observed during the typical 5 h-long ISO standard test. It is found that all the TiO2 materials studied eventually become largely NO to NO2 converters after sufficient exposure to NO under irradiation (>5 h) due to the accumulation of surface HNO3. The UV exposure time, t*, necessary to reach this HNO3 saturated condition is different for each different catalyst. As a consequence, an alternative preconditioning process for the ISO method is proposed which can be used to provide a more realistic measure of the photocatalytic activity of the underlying material and provide a measure of the NOx removing capacity of the photocatalytic material under test.

Interlaboratory studies on in vitro test methods for estimating in vivo resorption of calcium phosphate ceramics

A potential standard method for measuring the relative dissolution rate to estimate the resorbability of calcium-phosphate-based ceramics is proposed. Tricalcium phosphate (TCP), magnesium-substituted TCP (MgTCP) and zinc-substituted TCP (ZnTCP) were dissolved in a buffer solution free of calcium and phosphate ions at pH 4.0, 5.5 or 7.3 at nine research centers. Relative values of the initial dissolution rate (relative dissolution rates) were in good agreement among the centers. The relative dissolution rate coincided with the relative volume of resorption pits of ZnTCP in vitro. The relative dissolution rate coincided with the relative resorbed volume in vivo in the case of comparison between microporous MgTCPs with different Mg contents and similar porosity. However, the relative dissolution rate was in poor agreement with the relative resorbed volume in vivo in the case of comparison between microporous TCP and MgTCP due to the superimposition of the Mg-mediated decrease in TCP solubility on the Mg-mediated increase in the amount of resorption. An unambiguous conclusion could not be made as to whether the relative dissolution rate is predictive of the relative resorbed volume in vivo in the case of comparison between TCPs with different porosity. The relative dissolution rate may be useful for predicting the relative amount of resorption for calcium-phosphate-based ceramics having different solubility under the condition that the differences in the materials compared have little impact on the resorption process such as the number and activity of resorbing cells.

Neural dysfunction following respiratory viral infection as a cause of chronic cough hypersensitivity

Respiratory viral infections are a common cause of acute coughing, an irritating symptom for the patient and an important mechanism of transmission for the virus. Although poorly described, the inflammatory consequences of infection likely induce coughing by chemical (inflammatory mediator) or mechanical (mucous) activation of the cough-evoking sensory nerves that innervate the airway wall. For some individuals, acute cough can evolve into a chronic condition, in which cough and aberrant airway sensations long outlast the initial viral infection. This suggests that some viruses have the capacity to induce persistent plasticity in the neural pathways mediating cough. In this brief review we present the clinical evidence of acute and chronic neural dysfunction following viral respiratory tract infections and explore possible mechanisms by which the nervous system may undergo activation, sensitization and plasticity.

Perceptions of therapist responses to shame disclosures by clients: A quasi-experimental investigation with non-clinical participants

Background
Therapist responses to initial shame disclosure in therapy have received little empirical attention.

Aim
This study explored different therapeutic responses to shame disclosures in terms of their perceived helpfulness. Responses ranged from complete withdrawal from the feeling (withdrawal) to completely tuning into it (non-withdrawal). Given the tendency of shame to evoke avoidance, participants higher on shame-proneness (as measured by The Experience of Shame Scale) were expected to perceive withdrawal responses to shame as more helpful than non-withdrawal responses.

Methodology
Fifty-five non-clinical participants were assessed for shame-proneness before viewing videos of mock therapy sessions showing clients either disclosing shame (two videos) or shock (control condition). Participants then rated the helpfulness of different therapist responses. The responses differed in the degree they allowed the client to withdraw from their emotions.

Results
High shame proneness was associated with rating withdrawal responses to shame as least helpful. Overall, neither the withdrawal response nor the non-withdrawal response were rated as particularly helpful. The therapeutic response which addressed management strategies when shame is initially experienced in therapy was deemed most helpful.

Conclusion
Despite the tendency to withdraw from shame feelings, this response is not deemed helpful in therapy.

WS02.7 Initial and chronic MRSA infection in cystic fibrosis

Objectives Chronic MRSA infection, which affects approximately 26% of CF patients in the USA, is associated with declining lung function and poor outcomes (Dasenbrook, 2010). Anaerobic niches have been described within the CF lung, potentially influencing the virulence of MRSA. This study aims to compare initial and chronic CF MRSA isolates, following aerobic and anaerobic culture. Methods Isolates, obtained from CF sputum at first isolation [“early” (n = 10)] or up to 5 years later, during chronic infection [“late” (n = 15)] were cultured in aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Differences in virulence were compared using the Galleria mellonella infection model. Biofilm formation of each isolate was assessed following staining with crystal violet. Production of Δ-haemolysin (Δ-hly), a surrogate marker for expression of the virulence regulator agr, was determined by haemolysis assay. Results MRSA grown in anaerobic conditions had significantly increased virulence in the G. mellonella model (p = 0.007), increased biofilm formation (p = 0.006) and increased Δ-hly production (p<0.0001). No significant difference between Δ-hly production or biofilm formation were observed between early and late isolates; however late isolates were found to be more virulent in the G. mellonella model (p = 0.0002). Conclusion These results suggest that an anaerobic environment, as found in the CF lung, may increase virulence of MRSA and aid in the establishment of chronic infection. Further clinical studies are required to determine how these phenotypic changes are associated with transition to chronic infection and patient outcome.

Gatekeepers to the profession: recruitment to initial teacher education in the United Kingdom

We develop a framing for research on the relationship between context, process and outcomes in recruitment to the teaching profession. We do this through a ‘home international’ comparison of policies, outcomes and recruitment processes in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. There is plenty of movement between these countries in the graduate labour market, but the contexts for teacher supply and demand vary in terms of: (i) scale, (ii) excess supply or demand, (iii) reliance of policy on market forces or bureaucracy and (iv) beliefs of policymakers about whether teaching is a craft or a profession. Recent changes in England and Wales have highlighted the importance of recruitment to initial teacher education (ITE as a policy issue whilst also creating further points of comparison which are useful for research. We draw on trends in data on recruitment to teaching and in-depth interviews with gatekeepers to the profession in each country.

Time-lapse monitoring of fluid induced geophysical property variations within an unstable earthwork using P-wave refraction

A significant portion of the UK’s transportation system relies on a network of geotechnical earthworks (cuttings and embankments) that were constructed more than 100 years ago, whose stability is affected by the change in precipitation patterns experienced over the past few decades. The vulnerability of these structures requires a reliable, cost- and time-effective monitoring of their geomechanical condition. We have assessed the potential application of P-wave refraction for tracking the seasonal variations of seismic properties within an aged clay-filled railway embankment, located in southwest England. Seismic data were acquired repeatedly along the crest of the earthwork at regular time intervals, for a total period of 16 months. P-wave first-break times were picked from all available recorded traces, to obtain a set of hodocrones referenced to the same spatial locations, for various dates along the surveyed period of time. Traveltimes extracted from each acquisition were then compared to track the pattern of their temporal variability. The relevance of such variations over time was compared with the data experimental uncertainty. The multiple set of hodocrones was subsequently inverted using a tomographic approach, to retrieve a time-lapse model of VPVP for the embankment structure. To directly compare the reconstructed VPVP sections, identical initial models and spatial regularization were used for the inversion of all available data sets. A consistent temporal trend for P-wave traveltimes, and consequently for the reconstructed VPVP models, was identified. This pattern could be related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil-water content measured on site.

A study of initial therapy for glaucoma in southern India: India Glaucoma Outcomes and Treatment (INGOT) Study.

PURPOSE: To compare initial glaucoma therapy with medications and trabeculectomy in southern India. METHODS: Patients aged ≥ 30 years newly diagnosed with glaucoma were randomized to trabeculectomy with 5-fluorouracil or medical therapy. Subjects with best-corrected vision <6/18 due to cataract underwent phacoemulsification (phaco/intraocular lens, IOL). Intraocular pressure (IOP), vision and visual function were assessed at 12 months. RESULTS: Patients assigned to medications and surgery received the expected therapy in 86% (172/199) and 64% (126/199) of cases, respectively. Forty patients (20%) assigned to surgery refused any treatment and 33 (17%) received medications. Among 199 patients randomized to medications, 52 (26.1%) underwent phaco/IOL, as did 89/199 (43.7%) of patients randomized to trabeculectomy. Baseline parameters of the two groups did not differ, nor did 1-year follow-up rates (medication 65%, trabeculectomy 58%, P = 0.15). Final IOP was lower with randomization to trabeculectomy (16.3 ± 5.1 mmHg) than medication (18.8 ± 6.7 mmHg, P < 0.0001). In regression models, randomization to trabeculectomy (P < 0.0001) was associated with lower IOP, and simultaneous trabeculectomy and cataract surgery was associated with higher IOP (P = 0.008) than trabeculectomy alone. Subjects receiving Phaco/IOL had significantly better final acuity (P < 0.0001) and visual function (P = 0.035), despite concurrent glaucoma treatment. Final visual acuity was worse in those receiving trabeculectomy in addition to cataract surgery, but this was of borderline significance (P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Trabeculectomy lowered IOP significantly more than medical treatment, but with slightly greater loss of visual acuity. Combined phaco/IOL and trabeculectomy improved visual acuity with substantial IOP lowering.