Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.

Marr's vision: twenty-five years on

It is twenty-five years since the posthumous publication of David Marr's book Vision [1]. Only 35 years old when he died, Man, had already dramatically influenced vision research. His book, and the series of papers that preceded it, have had a lasting impact on the way that researchers approach human and computer vision.

Survival and vigour of ultra-dry seeds after ten years of hermetic storage

Seeds of carrot, groundnut, lettuce, oilseed rape and onion were stored hermetically in laminated aluminium foil packets in four environments (dry or ultra-dry moisture contents combined factorially with temperatures of 20 degrees C or -20 degrees C), replicated at several sites. After ten years' hermetic storage, seed moisture content, equilibrium relative humidity, viability (assessed by ability to germinate normally in standard germination tests) and vigour were determined. After a decade, the change in seed moisture content of samples stored at -20 degrees C was small or nil. Except for groundnut and lettuce (where loss in viability was about 8 and 3%, respectively), no loss in viability was detected after 10 years' hermetic storage at -20 degrees C. In all cases, there was no difference in seed survival between moisture contents at this temperature (P > 0.25). Comparison of seed vigour (root length and rate of germination) also confirmed that drying to moisture contents in equilibrium with 10-12% r.h. had no detrimental effect to longevity when stored at -20 degrees C: the only significant (P < 0.05) differences detected were slightly greater root lengths for ultra-dry storage of four of the six seed lots. Seed moisture content had increased after a decade at 20 degrees C (generally to the level in equilibrium with ambient relative humidity). Hence, sub-zero temperature storage helped maintain the long-term integrity of the laminated aluminium foil packets, as well as that of the seeds within.

Successful long-term ultra dry storage of seed of 15 species of Brassicaceae in a genebank: variation in ability to germinate over 40 years and dormancy

Seed of 15 species of Brassicaceae were stored hermetically in a genebank (at -5 degrees C to -10 degrees C with c. 3% moisture content) for 40 years. Samples were withdrawn at intervals for germination tests. Many accessions showed an increase in ability to germinate over this period. due to loss in dormancy. Nevertheless, some dormancy remained after 40 years' storage and was broken by pre-applied gibberellic acid. The poorest seed survival occurred in Hormatophylla spinosa. Even in this accession the ability to germinate declined by only 7% between 1966 and 2006. Comparison of seeds from 1966 stored for 40 years with those collected anew in 2006 from the original sampling sites, where possible, showed few differences, other than a tendency (7 of 9 accessions) for the latter to show greater dormancy. These results for hermetic storage at sub-zero temperatures and low moisture contents confirm that long-term seed storage can provide a successful technology for ex situ plant biodiversity conservation.

Insight overview: natural selection 150 years on

The theory of evolution by natural selection has prospered in its first 150 years and provides a consistent account of species as highly adapted and rare survivors in the struggle for existence. It now faces the challenge of finding order in the evolution of complex systems, including human society.

Extreme host plant conservatism during at least 20 million years of host plant pursuit by oak gallwasps

Diversification of insect herbivores is often associated with coevolution between plant toxins and insect countermeasures, resulting in a specificity that restricts host plant shifts. Gall inducers, however, bypass plant toxins and the factors influencing host plant associations in these specialized herbivores remain unclear. We reconstructed the evolution of host plant associations in Western Palaearctic oak gallwasps (Cynipidae: Cynipini), a species-rich lineage of specialist herbivores on oak (Quercus). (1) Bayesian analyses of sequence data for three genes revealed extreme host plant conservatism, with inferred shifts between major oak lineages (sections Cerris and Quercus) closely matching the minimum required to explain observed diversity. It thus appears that the coevolutionary demands of gall induction constrain host plant shifts, both in cases of mutualism (e.g., fig wasps, yucca moths) and parasitism (oak gallwasps). (2) Shifts between oak sections occurred independently in sexual and asexual generations of the gallwasp lifecycle, implying that these can evolve independently. (3) Western Palaearctic gallwasps associated with sections Cerris and Quercus diverged at least 20 million years ago (mya), prior to the arrival of oaks in the Western Palaearctic from Asia 5-7 mya. This implies an Asian origin for Western Palaearctic gallwasps, with independent westwards range expansion by multiple lineages.