EXPERT-SYSTEM SUPPORT USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS IN THE DIAGNOSIS OF FINE-NEEDLE ASPIRATION BIOPSY SPECIMENS OF THE BREAST

Aim-To develop an expert system model for the diagnosis of fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) of the breast.

Methods-Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network which permitted the combination of diagnostic evidence in a cumulative manner and provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 10 cytological features (evidence nodes), each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. The system was designed to be interactive in that the cytopathologist entered evidence into the network in the form of likelihood ratios for the outcomes at each evidence node.

Results-The efficiency of the network was tested on a series of 40 breast FNAC specimens. The highest diagnostic probability provided by the network agreed with the cytopathologists' diagnosis in 100% of cases for the assessment of discrete, benign, and malignant aspirates. A typical probably benign cases were given probabilities in favour of a benign diagnosis. Suspicious cases tended to have similar probabilities for both diagnostic outcomes and so, correctly, could not be assigned as benign or malignant. A closer examination of cumulative belief graphs for the diagnostic sequence of each case provided insight into the diagnostic process, and quantitative data which improved the identification of suspicious cases.

Conclusion-The further development of such a system will have three important roles in breast cytodiagnosis: (1) to aid the cytologist in making a more consistent and objective diagnosis; (2) to provide a teaching tool on breast cytological diagnosis for the non-expert; and (3) it is the first stage in the development of a system capable of automated diagnosis through the use of expert system machine vision.

A conceptual model and key variables for guiding supportive interventions for family caregivers of people receiving palliative care

According to the World Health Organization, the patient and family should be viewed as the "unit of care" when palliative care is required. Therefore family caregivers should receive optimal supportive care from health professionals. However, the impact of supporting a dying relative is frequently described as having negative physical and psychosocial sequalae. Furthermore, family caregivers consistently report unmet needs and there has been a dearth of rigorous supportive interventions published. In addition, comprehensive conceptual frameworks to navigate the family caregiver experience and guide intervention development are lacking. This article draws on Lazarus and Folkman's seminal work on the transactional stress and coping framework to present a conceptual model specific to family caregivers of patients receiving palliative care. A comprehensive account of key variables to aid understanding of the family caregiver experience and intervention design is provided.

The effects of the Omagh bomb on adolescent mental health: a school-based study

Background: The main objective of this study was to assess psychiatric morbidity among adolescentsfollowing the Omagh car bombing in Northern Ireland in 1998.

Methods: Data was collected within schools from adolescents aged between 14 and 18 years via a selfcompletionbooklet comprised of established predictors of PTSD; type of exposure, initialemotional response, long-term adverse physical problems, predictors derived from Ehlers andClark’s (2000) cognitive model, a PTSD symptoms measure (PDS) and the General HealthQuestionnaire (GHQ).

Results:Those with more direct physical exposure were significantly more likely to meet caseness onthe GHQ and the PDS. The combined pre and peri trauma risk factors highlighted in previousmeta-analyses accounted for 20% of the variance in PDS scores but the amount of varianceaccounted for increased to 56% when the variables highlighted in Ehlers and Clark’scognitive model for PTSD were added.

Conclusions: High rates of chronic PTSD were observed in adolescents exposed to the bombing. Whilstincreased exposure was associated with increased psychiatric morbidity, the best predictors ofPTSD were specific aspects of the trauma (‘seeing someone you think is dying’), what youare thinking during the event (‘think you are going to die’) and the cognitive mechanismsemployed after the trauma. As these variables are in principle amenable to treatment theresults have implications for teams planning treatment interventions after future traumas.

Constitutive model for localized Lüders-like stress-induced martensitic transformation and super-elastic behaviors of laser-welded NiTi wires

The application of the shape memory alloy NiTi in micro-electro-mechanical-systems (MEMSs) is extensive nowadays. In MEMS, complex while precise motion control is always vital. This makes the degradation of the functional properties of NiTi during cycling loading such as the appearance of residual strain become a serious problem to study, in particular for laser micro-welded NiTi in real applications. Although many experimental efforts have been put to study the mechanical properties of laser welded NiTi, surprisingly, up to the best of our understanding, there has not been attempts to quantitatively model the laser-welded NiTi under mechanical cycling in spite of the accurate prediction required in applications and the large number of constitutive models to quantify the thermo-mechanical behavior of shape memory alloys. As the first attempt to fill the gap, we employ a recent constitutive model, which describes the localized SIMT in NiTi under cyclic deformation; with suitable modifications to model the mechanical behavior of the laser welded NiTi under cyclic tension. The simulation of the model on a range of tensile cyclic deformation is consistent with the results of a series of experiments. From this, we conclude that the plastic deformation localized in the welded regions (WZ and HAZs) of the NiTi weldment can explain most of the extra amount of residual strain appearing in welded NiTi compared to the bare one. Meanwhile, contrary to common belief, we find that the ability of the weldment to memorize its transformation history, sometimes known as ‘return point memory’, still remains unchanged basically though the effective working limit of this ability reduces to within 6% deformation.

An international review of the patterns and determinants of health service utilisation by adult cancer survivors

Background: There is a need to review factors related to health service utilisation by the increasing number of cancer survivors in order to inform care planning and the organisation and delivery of services.

Methods: Studies were identified via systematic searches of Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Social Science Citation Index and the SEER-MEDICARE library. Methodological quality was assessed using STROBE; and the Andersen Behavioural Model was used as a framework to structure, organise and analyse the results of the review.

Results: Younger, white cancer survivors were most likely to receive follow-up screening, preventive care, visit their physician, utilise professional mental health services and least likely to be hospitalised. Utilisation rates of other health professionals such as physiotherapists were low. Only studies of health service use conducted in the USA investigated the role of type of health insurance and ethnicity. There appeared to be disparate service use among US samples in terms of ethnicity and socio-demographic status, regardless of type of health insurance provisions- this may be explained by underlying differences in health-seeking behaviours. Overall, use of follow-up care appeared to be lower than expected and barriers existed for particular groups of cancer survivors.

Conclusions: Studies focussed on the use of a specific type of service rather than adopting a whole-system approach and future health services research should address this shortcoming. Overall, there is a need to improve access to care for all cancer survivors. Studies were predominantly US-based focussing mainly on breast or colorectal cancer. Thus, the generalisability of findings to other health-care systems and cancer sites is unclear. The Andersen Behavioural Model provided an appropriate framework for studying and understanding health service use among cancer survivors. The active involvement of physicians and use of personalised care plans are required in order to ensure that post-treatment needs and recommendations for care are met.

Physical activity and the rejuvenation of Connswater (PARC study): protocol for a natural experiment investigating the impact of urban regeneration on public health

Background: There is a dearth of evidence regarding the impact of urban regeneration projects on public health, particularly the nature and degree to which urban regeneration impacts upon health-related behaviour change. Natural experiment methodology enables comprehensive large-scale evaluations of such interventions. The Connswater Community Greenway in Belfast is a major urban regeneration project involving the development of a 9 km linear park, including the provision of new cycle paths and walkways. In addition to the environmental improvements, this complex intervention involves a number of programmes to promote physical activity in the regenerated area. The project affords a unique opportunity to investigate the public health impact of urban regeneration.

Methods/Design: The evaluation framework was informed by the socio-ecological model and guided by the RE-AIM Framework. Key components include: (1) a quasi-experimental before-and-after survey of the Greenway population (repeated cross-sectional design), in tandem with data from a parallel Northern Ireland-wide survey for comparison; (2) an assessment of changes in the local built environment and of walkability using geographic information systems; (3) semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of survey respondents, and a range of community stakeholders, before and after the regeneration project; and (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis. The primary outcome is change in proportion of individuals identified as being regularly physically active, according to the current UK recommendations. The RE-AIM Framework will be used to make an overall assessment of the impact of the Greenway on the physical activity behaviour of local residents.

Discussion: The Connswater Community Greenway provides a significant opportunity to achieve long-term, population level behaviour change. We argue that urban regeneration may be conceptualised meaningfully as a complex intervention comprising multiple components with the potential, individually and interactively, to affect the behaviour of a diverse population. The development and implementation of our comprehensive evaluation framework reflects this complexity and illuminates an approach to the empirical, rigorous evaluation of urban regeneration. More specifically, this study will add to the much needed evidence-base about the impact of urban regeneration on public health as well as having important implications for the development of natural experiment methodology.

Testing a model for developing, implementing and evaluating a strategy to improve the quality of nursing and midwifery care in an acute hospital trust.

Abstract:
Background: Health care organisations
worldwide are faced with the need to develop
and implement strategic organisational plans
to meet the challenges of modern health care.
There is a need for models for developing, implementing and evaluating strategic plans that engage practitioners, and make a measurable difference to the patients that they serve. These presentations describe the development, implementation and evaluation of such a model by a team of senior nurses and practice developers, to underpin a strategy for nursing and midwifery in an acute hospital trust. Developing a Strategy The PARIHS (Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services) conceptual framework (Kitson et al, 1998) proposes that successful implementation of change in practice is a function of the interplay of three core elements: the level of evidence supporting the proposed change; the context or environment in which the change takes place, and the way in which change is facilitated. We chose to draw on this framework to develop our strategy and implementation plan (O’Halloran, Martin and Connolly, 2005). At the centre of the plan are ward managers. These professionals provide leadership for the majority of staff in the trust and so were seen to be a key group in the implementation process.

Models of Mental Health

A good understanding of the different theoretical models is essential when working in the field of mental health. Not only does it help with understanding experiences of mental health difficulties and to find meaning, but it also provides a framework for expanding our knowledge of the field.

As part of the Foundations of Mental Health Practice series, this book provides a critical overview of the theoretical perspectives relevant to mental health practice. At the core of this book is the idea that no single theory is comprehensive on its own and each theory has its limitations. Divided in to two parts, Part I explores traditional models of mental health and covers the key areas: bio-medical perspectives, psychological perspectives and social perspectives, whilst Part II looks at contemporary ideas that challenge and push these traditional views. The contributions, strengths and limitations of each model are explored and, as a result, the book encourages a more holistic, open approach to understanding and responding to mental health issues.

Together, these different approaches offer students and practitioners a powerful set of perspectives from which to approach their study and careers. Each model is covered in a clear and structured way with supporting exercises and case studies. It is an essential text for anyone studying or practising in the field of mental health, including social workers, nurses and psychologists.

How to classify the Oldest Old according to Health Status: A study of 1160 subjects belonging to 552 90+ Italian sibships characterised by familial longevity recruited within the GeHA EU project

The health status of the oldest old, the fastest increasing population segment worldwide, progressively becomes more heterogeneous, and this peculiarity represents a major obstacle to their classification. We compared the effectiveness of four previously proposed criteria (Franceschi et al., 2000; Evert et al., 2003; Gondo et al., 2006; Andersen-Ranberg et al., 2001) in 1160 phenotypically fully characterized Italian siblings of 90 years of age and older (90+, mean age: 93 years; age range: 90–106 years) belonging to 552 sib-ships, recruited in Northern, Central and Southern Italy within the EU-funded project GEHA, followed for a six-year-survival. Main findings were: (i) ‘‘healthy’’ subjects varied within a large range, i.e. 5.2% (Gondo), 8.7% (Evert), 17.7% (Franceschi), and 28.5% (Andersen-Ranberg); (ii) Central Italy subjects showed better health than those from Northern and Southern Italy; (iii) mortality risk was correlated with health status independently of geographical areas; and (iv) 90+ males, although fewer in number, were healthier than females, but with no survival advantage. In conclusion, we identified a modified version of Andersen-Ranberg criteria, based on the concomitant assessment of two basic domains (cognitive, SMMSE; physical, ADL), called ‘‘Simple Model of Functional Status’’ (SMFS), as the most effective proxy to distinguish healthy from not-healthy subjects. This model showed that health status was correlated within sib-ships, suggesting a familial/genetic component.

Incorporating Severity and Risk as Factors to the Fardal Cost-Effectiveness Model to Create a Cost-Benefit Model for Periodontal Treatment

Background: A previously described economic model was based on average values for patients diagnosed with chronic periodontitis (CP). However, tooth loss varies among treated patients and factors for tooth loss include CP severity and risk. The model was refined to incorporate CP severity and risk to determine the cost of treating a specific level of CP severity and risk that is associated with the benefit of tooth preservation.

Methods: A population that received and another that did not receive periodontal treatment were used to determine treatment costs and tooth loss. The number of teeth preserved was the difference of the number of teeth lost between the two populations. The cost of periodontal treatment was divided by the number of teeth preserved for combinations of CP severity and risk.

Results: The cost of periodontal treatment divided by the number of teeth preserved ranged from (US) $ 1,405 to $ 4,895 for high or moderate risk combined with any severity of CP and was more than $ 8,639 for low risk combined with mild CP. The cost of a three-unit bridge was $ 3,416, and the cost of a single-tooth replacement was $ 4,787.

Conclusion: Periodontal treatment could be justified on the sole basis of tooth preservation when CP risk is moderate or high regardless of disease severity.

Developing a best practice model for partnership practice between specialist palliative care and intellectual disability services: a mixed methods study

Background: The lack of access to good quality palliative care for people with intellectual disabilities is highlighted in the international literature. In response, more partnership practice in end-of-life care is proposed. 
Aim: This study aimed to develop a best practice model to guide and promote partnership practice between specialist palliative care and intellectual disability services. 
Design: A mixed methods research design involving two phases was used, underpinned by a conceptual model for partnership practice. 
Setting/participants: Phase 1 involved scoping end-of-life care to people with intellectual disability, based on self-completed questionnaires. In all, 47 of 66 (71.2%) services responded. In Phase 2, semi-structured interviews were undertaken with a purposive sample recruited of 30 health and social care professionals working in intellectual disability and palliative care services, who had provided palliative care to someone with intellectual disability. For both phases, data were collected from primary and secondary care in one region of the United Kingdom. 
Results: In Phase 1, examples of good practice were apparent. However, partnership practice was infrequent and unmet educational needs were identified. Four themes emerged from the interviews in Phase 2: challenges and issues in end-of-life care, sharing and learning, supporting and empowering and partnership in practice. 
Conclusion: Joint working and learning between intellectual disability and specialist palliative care were seen as key and fundamental. A framework for partnership practice between both services has been developed which could have international applicability and should be explored with other services in end-of-life care.

Regional variation in five indicators of health in early childhood: a cohort study

Background Persistent and marked differences in adult morbidity and mortality between regions in the United Kingdom (UK) are often referred to as the north-south gradient (or divide) and the Scottish effect, and are only partly explained by adult levels of socioeconomic status (SES) or risk factors which suggests variation arising earlier in life. The aim of the current study was to examine regional variations in five health indicators in children in England and Scotland at birth and three years of age.
Methods Respondents were 10,500 biological Caucasian mothers of singleton children recruited to the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Outcome variables were: gestational age and weight at birth, and height, body mass index (BMI), and externalising behaviour at age three. Region/Country was categorised as: South (reference), Midlands, North, and Scotland. Respondents provided information on child, maternal, household, and socioeconomic characteristics when the cohort infant/child was aged nine months and again when aged three years. 
Results There were no significant regional variations for gestational age or birthweight. However, at age three there was a north-south gradient for externalising behaviour and a north-south divide in BMI which attenuated on adjustment. However, a north-south divide in height was not fully explained by the adjusted model. There was also evidence of a ‘Midlands effect’, with increased likelihoods of shorter stature and behaviour problems. Results showed a Scottish effect for height and BMI in the unadjusted models, and height in the adjusted model. However, Scottish children were less likely to show behaviour problems in crude and adjusted models. 
Conclusions Findings indicated no marked regional differences in children at birth, but by age three some regional health differences were evident, and though not distinct north-south gradients or Scottish effects, are evidence of health inequalities appearing at an early age and dependent on geographic location.

The impact of patient suicide on community mental health teams

Suicide in Scotland is considered an urgent public health issue affecting all aspects of society. The aim of this study was to explore how a patient suicide impacts on members of a community mental health team (CMHT). Six members of one CMHT were interviewed on two occasions, approximately nine months following a patient suicide. An interpretative descriptive model, drawing on elements of grounded theory, phenomenology end ethnography was chosen, using semistructured interviews for data collection. Three main themes of emotional response, communication and clinical implications were clearly described. Emotional response included feelings of shock and surprise, concern and personal impact. Communication included examples of personal, team and management communication in the days and weeks following the suicide. Clinical aspects discussed included the non-replacement of staff and training and experience as sub-themes. Findings in relation to the wider published literature are discussed

Addressing inequalities in physical activity participation: Implications for public health policy and practice

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the characteristics of those doing no moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (0days/week), some MVPA (1-4days/week) and sufficient MVPA (≥5days/week) to meet the guidelines in order to effectively develop and target PA interventions to address inequalities in participation.

METHOD: A population survey (2010/2011) of 4653 UK adults provided data on PA and socio-demographic characteristics. An ordered logit model investigated the covariates of 1) participating in no PA, 2) participating in some PA, and 3) meeting the PA guidelines. Model predictions were derived for stereotypical subgroups to highlight important policy and practice implications.

RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 45years old (95% CI 44.51, 45.58) and 42% were male. Probability forecasting showed that males older than 55years of age (probability=0.20; 95% CI 0.11, 0.28), and both males (probability=0.31; 95% CI 0.17, 0.45) and females (probability=0.38; 95% CI 0.27, 0.50) who report poor health are significantly more likely to do no PA.

CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the characteristics of those doing no MVPA and some MVPA could help develop population-level interventions targeting those most in need. Findings suggest that interventions are needed to target older adults, particularly males, and those who report poor health.

Assessing the environmental fate of selected polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the region surrounding the Zhuoshui River of Taiwan based on an Equilibrium Constant fugacity model

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a group of flame retardants that have been in use since the 1970s. They are included in the list of hazardous substances known as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) because they are extremely hazardous to the environment and human health. PBDEs have been extensively used in industry and manufacturing in Taiwan, thus its citizens are at high risk of exposure to these chemicals.
An assessment of the environmental fate of these compounds in the Zhuoshui river and Changhua County regions of western Taiwan, and also including the adjacent area of the Taiwan Strait, was conducted for three high risk congeners, BDE-47, -99 and -209, to obtain information regarding the partitioning, advection, transfer and long range transport potential of the PBDEs in order to identify the level of risk posed by the pollutants in this region.
The results indicate that large amounts of PBDEs presently reside in all model compartments – air, soil, water, and sediment – with particularly high levels found in air and especially in sediment. The high levels found in sediment, particularly for BDE-209, are significant, since there is the threat of these pollutants entering the food chain, either directly through benthic feeding, or through resuspension and subsequent feeding in the pelagic region of the water column which is a distinct possibility in the strong currents found within the Taiwan Strait. Another important result is that a substantial portion of emissions leave the model domain directly through advection, particularly for BDE-47 (58%) and BDE-209 (75%), thus posing a risk to adjacent communities.
Model results were generally in reasonable agreement with available measured concentrations. In air, model concentrations are in reasonably good agreement with available measured values. For both BDE-47 and -99, model concentrations are a factor of 2-3 higher and BDE-209 within the range of measured values. In soil, model results are somewhat less than measured values. In sediment, model results are at the high end of measured values.