Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

Salt forms of Amides: protonation and polymorphism of Carbamazepine and Cytenamide

In situ generation of HCl or HBr in alcohol leads to O-protonation of the amide group of carbamazepine. Six salt phases have been produced using this method and their crystal structures determined by single crystal diffraction. A new polymorph of carbamazepine hydrochloride is described as are two polymorphs of carbamazepine hydrobromide. All are protonated at the amide O atom to give RC(OH)NH2 cations. Prolonged exposure to air results in addition of water to the solid salt forms. Such hydration of carbamazepine hydrobromide simply gives a monohydrated phase, but similar treatment of the equivalent hydrochloride results in partial loss of HCl and the transfer of the remaining proton from the amide group to water to give [carbamazepine][H3O]0.5[Cl]0.5·H2O. A similar hydronium chloride species is the only product isolated after reaction of the carbamazepine analogue cytenamide with HCl generated in methanol.

Control of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia: knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices in Narok district of Kenya

CBPP is an important transboundary disease in sub-Saharan Africa whose control is urgent. Participatory data collection involving 52 focus group discussions in 37 village clusters and key informant interviews, a cross-sectional study involving 232 households and a post-vaccination follow up involving 203 households was carried out in 2006-2007 in Narok South district of Kenya. This was to investigate knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and practices (KAPP) associated with control of CBPP as well as the adverse post-vaccination reactions in animals in order to advice the control policy. The community perceived trans-boundary CBPP threat to their cattle. They had traditional disease coping mechanisms and were conversant with CBPP prevention and control with 49.8% (95%CI: 42.8-56.7%) giving priority to CBPP control. However, 12.9% (95%CI: 9.0-18.1%) of pastoralists had no knowledge of any prevention method and 10.0% (95%CI: 6.5-14.7%) would not know what to do or would do nothing in the event of an outbreak. Although 43.5% (95%CI: 37.1-50.2%) of pastoralists were treating CBPP cases with antimicrobials, 62.5% (95%CI: 52.1-71.7%) of them doubted the effectiveness of the treatments. Pastoralists perceived vaccination to be the solution to CBPP but vaccination was irregular due to unavailability of the vaccine. Vaccination was mainly to control outbreaks rather than preventive and exhibited adverse post-vaccination reactions among 70.4% (95%CI: 63.6-76.5%) of herds and 3.8% (95%CI: 3.5-4.2%) of animals. Consequently, nearly 25.2% (95%CI: 18.5-33.2%) of pastoralists may resist subsequent vaccinations against CBPP. Pastoralists preferred CBPP vaccination at certain times of the year and that it is combined with other vaccinations. In conclusion, pastoralists were not fully aware of the preventive measures and interventions and post-vaccination reactions may discourage subsequent CBPP vaccinations. Consequently there is need for monitoring and management of post vaccination reactions and awareness creation on CBPP prevention and interventions and their merits and demerits. CBPP vaccine was largely unavailable to the pastoralists and the preference of the pastoralists was for vaccination at specified times and vaccine combinations which makes it necessary to avail the vaccine in conformity with the pastoralists preferences. In addition, planning vaccinations should involve pastoralists and neighbouring countries. As the results cannot be generalized, further studies on CBPP control methods and their effectiveness are recommended.

K-Surfer: a KNIME extension for the management and analysis of Human brain MRI FreeSurfer/FSL data

Human brain imaging techniques, such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) or Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI), have been established as scientific and diagnostic tools and their adoption is growing in popularity. Statistical methods, machine learning and data mining algorithms have successfully been adopted to extract predictive and descriptive models from neuroimage data. However, the knowledge discovery process typically requires also the adoption of pre-processing, post-processing and visualisation techniques in complex data workflows. Currently, a main problem for the integrated preprocessing and mining of MRI data is the lack of comprehensive platforms able to avoid the manual invocation of preprocessing and mining tools, that yields to an error-prone and inefficient process. In this work we present K-Surfer, a novel plug-in of the Konstanz Information Miner (KNIME) workbench, that automatizes the preprocessing of brain images and leverages the mining capabilities of KNIME in an integrated way. K-Surfer supports the importing, filtering, merging and pre-processing of neuroimage data from FreeSurfer, a tool for human brain MRI feature extraction and interpretation. K-Surfer automatizes the steps for importing FreeSurfer data, reducing time costs, eliminating human errors and enabling the design of complex analytics workflow for neuroimage data by leveraging the rich functionalities available in the KNIME workbench.

Researching farmer behaviour in climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture: lessons learned from five case studies

Understanding farmer behaviour is needed for local agricultural systems to produce food sustainably while facing multiple pressures. We synthesize existing literature to identify three fundamental questions that correspond to three distinct areas of knowledge necessary to understand farmer behaviour: 1) decision-making model; 2) cross-scale and cross-level pressures; and 3) temporal dynamics. We use this framework to compare five interdisciplinary case studies of agricultural systems in distinct geographical contexts across the globe. We find that these three areas of knowledge are important to understanding farmer behaviour, and can be used to guide the interdisciplinary design and interpretation of studies in the future. Most importantly, we find that these three areas need to be addressed simultaneously in order to understand farmer behaviour. We also identify three methodological challenges hindering this understanding: the suitability of theoretical frameworks, the trade-offs among methods and the limited timeframe of typical research projects. We propose that a triangulation research strategy that makes use of mixed methods, or collaborations between researchers across mixed disciplines, can be used to successfully address all three areas simultaneously and show how this has been achieved in the case studies. The framework facilitates interdisciplinary research on farmer behaviour by opening up spaces of structured dialogue on assumptions, research questions and methods employed in investigation.

Radiative forcing and climate change

Aviation causes climate change as a result of its emissions of CO2, oxides of nitrogen, aerosols, and water vapor. One simple method of quantifying the climate impact of past emissions is radiative forcing. The radiative forcing due to changes in CO2 is best characterized, but there are formidable difficulties in estimating the non-CO2 forcings – this is particularly the case for possible aviation-induced changes in cloudiness (AIC). The most recent comprehensive assessment gave a best estimate of the 2005 total radiative forcing due to aviation of about 55–78 mW m−2 depending on whether AIC was included or not, with an uncertainty of at least a factor of 2. The aviation CO2 radiative forcing represents about 1.6% of the total CO2 forcing from all human activities. It is estimated that, including the non-CO2 effects, aviation contributes between 1.3 and 14% of the total radiative forcing due to all human activities. Alternative methods for comparing the future impact of present-day aviation emissions are presented – the perception of the relative importance of the non-CO2 emissions, relative to CO2, depends considerably on the chosen method and the parameters chosen within those methods.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.

Targeted activation of toll-like receptors: conjugation of a toll-like receptor 7 agonist to a monoclonal antibody maintains antigen binding and specificity

Therapeutic activation of Toll-like receptors (TLR) has potential for cancer immunotherapy, for augmenting the activity of anti-tumor monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), and for improved vaccine adjuvants. A previous attempt to specifically target TLR agonists to dendritic cells (DC) using mAbs failed because conjugation led to non-specific binding and mAbs lost specificity. We demonstrate here for the first time the successful conjugation of a small molecule TLR7 agonist to an anti-tumour mAb (the anti-hCD 20 rituximab) without compromising antigen specificity. The TLR7 agonist UC-1V150 was conjugated to rituximab using two conjugation methods and yield, molecular substitution ratio, retention of TLR7 activity and specificity of antigen binding were compared. Both conjugation methods produced rituximab-UC-1V150 conjugates with UC-1V150 : rituximab ratio ranging from 1:1 to 3:1 with drug loading quantified by UV spectroscopy and drug substitution ratio verified by MALDI TOF mass spectroscopy. The yield of purified conjugates varied with conjugation method, and dropped as low as 31% using a method previously described for conjugating UC-1V150 to proteins, where a bifunctional crosslinker was firstly reacted with rituximab, and secondly to the TLR7 agonist. We therefore developed a direct conjugation method by producing an amine-reactive UV active version of UC-1V150, termed NHS:UC-1V150. Direct conjugation with NHS:UC-1V150 was quick and simple and gave improved conjugate yields of 65-78%. Rituximab-UC-1V150 conjugates had the expected pro-inflammatory activity in vitro (EC50 28-53 nM) with a significantly increased activity over unconjugated UC-1V150 (EC50 547 nM). Antigen binding and specificity of the rituxuimab-UC-1V150 conjugates was retained, and after incubation with human peripheral blood leukocytes, all conjugates bound strongly only to CD20-expressing B cells whilst no non-specific binding to CD20-negative cells was observed. Selective targeting of Toll-like receptor activation directly within tumors or to DC is now feasible.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.

Social connection and practice-dependence: some recent developments in the global justice literature

This review essay discusses two recent attempts to reform the framework in which issues of international and global justice are discussed: Iris Marion Young’s ‘social connection’ model and the practice-dependent approach, here exemplified by Ayelet Banai, Miriam Ronzoni and Christian Schemmel’s edited collection. I argue that while Young’s model may fit some issues of international or global justice, it misconceives the problems that many of them pose. Indeed, its difficulties point precisely in the direction of practice dependence as it is presented by Banai et al. I go on to discuss what seem to be the strengths of that method, and particularly Banai et al.’s defence of it against the common claim that it is biased towards the status quo. I also discuss Andrea Sangiovanni and Kate MacDonald’s contributions to the collection.

Analysis Scheme in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

This paper discusses an important issue related to the implementation and interpretation of the analysis scheme in the ensemble Kalman filter . I t i s shown that the obser vations must be treated as random variables at the analysis steps. That is, one should add random perturbations with the correct statistics to the obser vations and generate an ensemble of obser vations that then is used in updating the ensemble of model states. T raditionally , this has not been done in previous applications of the ensemble Kalman filter and, as will be shown, this has resulted in an updated ensemble with a variance that is too low . This simple modification of the analysis scheme results in a completely consistent approach if the covariance of the ensemble of model states is interpreted as the prediction error covariance, and there are no further requirements on the ensemble Kalman filter method, except for the use of an ensemble of sufficient size. Thus, there is a unique correspondence between the error statistics from the ensemble Kalman filter and the standard Kalman filter approach

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 2: Comparison over non-uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.

Comparison of biological behavior between early-stage adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix

Objectives: (1) To compare the anatomopathological variables and recurrence rates in patients with early-stage adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the uterine cervix; (2) to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Study design: This historical cohort study assessed 238 patients with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (113 and IIA), who underwent radical hysterectomy with pelvic lymph node dissection between 1980 and 1999. Comparison of category variables between the two histological types was carried out using the Pearson`s X-2 test or Fisher exact test. Disease-free survival rates for AC and SCC were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the curves were compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: There were 35 cases of AC (14.7%) and 203 of SCC (85.3%). AC presented lower histological grade than did SCC (grade 1: 68.6% versus 9.4%; p < 0.001), lower rate of lymphovascular space involvement (25.7% versus 53.7%; p = 0.002), lower rate of invasion into the middle or deep thirds of the uterine cervix (40.0% versus 80.8%; p < 0.001) and lower rate of lymph node metastasis (2.9% versus 16.3%; p = 0.036). Although the recurrence rate was lower for AC than for SCC (11.4% versus 15.8%), this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.509). Multivariate analysis identified three independent risk factors for recurrence: presence of metastases in the pelvic lymph nodes, invasion of the deep third of the uterine cervix and absence of or slight inflammatory reaction in the cervix. When these variables were adjusted for the histological type and radiotherapy status, they remained in the model as independent risk factors. Conclusion: The AC group showed less aggressive histological behavior than did the SCC group, but no difference in the disease-free survival rates was noted. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.