Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Fate of pathogen indicators in a domestic blend of food waste and wastewater through a two-stage anaerobic digestion system

Anaerobic digestion is a viable on-site treatment technology for rich organic waste streams such as food waste and blackwater. In contrast to large-scale municipal wastewater treatment plants which are typically located away from the community, the effluent from any type of on-site system is a potential pathogenic hazard because of the intimacy of the system to the community. The native concentrations of the pathogen indicators Escherichia coli, Clostridium perfringens and somatic coliphage were tracked for 30 days under stable operation (organic loading rate (OLR) = 1.8 kgCOD m(-3) day(-1), methane yield = 52% on a chemical oxygen demand (COD) basis) of a two-stage laboratory-scale digester treating a mixture of food waste and blackwater. E. coli numbers were reduced by a factor of 10(6.4) in the thermophilic stage, from 10(7.5+/-0.3) to 10(1.1+/-0.1) cfu 100 mL(-1), but regenerated by a factor of 10(4) in the mesophilic stage. Neither the thermophilic nor mesophilic stages had any significant impact on C. perfringens concentrations. Coliphage concentrations were reduced by a factor of 10(1.4) across the two stages. The study shows that anaerobic digestion only reduces pathogen counts marginally but that counts in effluent samples could be readily reduced to below detection limits by filtration through a 0.22 microm membrane, to investigate membrane filtration as a possible sanitation technique.

Fate of key food-borne pathogens associated with intensive pig and poultry farming environments

Intensive pig and poultry farming in Australia can be a source of pathogens with implications for food-safety and/or human illness. Seven studies were undertaken with the following objectives: · Assess the types of zoonotic pathogens in waste · Assess the transfer of pathogens during re-use both within the shed and externally in the environment · The potential for movement of pathogens via aerosols In the first and second studies the extent of zoonotic pathogens was evaluated in both piggery effluent and chicken litter and Salmonella and Campylobacter were detected in both wastes. In the third study the dynamics of Salmonella during litter re-use was examined and results showed a trend for lower Salmonella levels and serovar diversity in re-used litter compared to new litter. Thus, re-use within the poultry farming system posed no increased risk. The fourth study addressed the direct risks of pathogens to farm workers due to reuse of piggery effluent within the pig shed. Based on air-borne Escherichia coli (E. coli) levels, re-using effluent did not pose a risk. In the fifth study high levels of Arcobacter spp. were detected in effluent ponds and freshly irrigated soils with potential food-safety risks during the irrigation of food-crops and pasture. The sixth and seventh studies addressed the risks from aerosols from mechanically ventilated sheds. Staphylococci were shown to have potential as markers, with airborne levels gradually dropping and reaching background levels at 400 m distance. Salmonella was detected (at low levels) both inside and outside the shed (at 10 m). Campylobacter was detected only once inside the shed during the 3-year period (at low levels). Results showed there was minimal risk to humans living adjacent to poultry farms This is the first comprehensive analysis studying key food-safety pathogens and potential public health risks associated with intensively farmed pigs and poultry in Australia.

Re-use of chicken litter across broiler cycles – managing the food-borne pathogen risk

Thus the objectives of this study can be broadly categorised as follows:-  Evaluate current practices adopted (e.g. litter pile-up) prior to re-use of litter for subsequent chicken cycles  To establish pathogen die-off that occurs during currently adopted methods of in-shed treatment of litter  To establish simple physical parameters to monitor this pathogen reduction and create an understanding of such reduction strategies to aid in-shed management of re-use litter  To carry out studies to assess the potential of the re-used litter (once spread) to support pathogens during a typical chicken production cycle.  To provide background data for the development of a simple code of practice for an in-shed litter pile-up process

Distribution and characterization of Poleroviruses affecting food legumes in Central/West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) region and Australia

During the past 15 years, surveys to identify virus diseases affecting cool-season food legume crops in Australia and 11 CWANA countries (Algeria, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Uzbekistan and Yemen) were conducted. More than 20,000 samples were collected and tested for the presence of 14 legume viruses by the tissue-blot immunoassay (TBIA) using a battery of antibodies, including the following Luteovirus monoclonal antibodies (McAbs): a broad-spectrum legume Luteovirus (5G4), BLRV, BWYV, SbDV and CpCSV. A total of 195 Luteovirus samples were selected for further testing by RT-PCR using 7 primers (one is degenerate, and can detect a wide range of Luteoviridae virus species and the other six are species-specific primers) at the Virology Laboratory, QDAF, Australia, during 2014. A total of 145 DNA fragments (represented 105 isolates) were sequenced. The following viruses were characterized based on molecular analysis: BLRV from Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Uzbekistan; SbDV from Australia, Syria and Uzbekistan; BWYV from Algeria, China, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Uzbekistan; CABYV from Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan and Uzbekistan; CpCSV from Algeria, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia, and unknown Luteoviridae species from Algeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Sudan, Uzbekistan and Yemen. This study has clearly shown that there are a number of Polerovirus species, in addition to BWYV, all can produce yellowing/stunting symptoms in pulses (e.g. CABYV, CpCSV, and other unknown Polerovirus species). Based on our knowledge this is the first report of CABYV affecting food legumes. Moreover, there was about 95% agreement between results obtained from serological analysis (TBIA) and molecular analysis for the detection of BLRV and SbDV. Whereas, TBIA results were not accurate when using CpCSV and BWYV McAbs . It seems that the McAbs for CpCSV and BWYV used in this study and those available worldwide, are not virus species specific. Both antibodies, reacted with other Polerovirus species (e.g. CABYV, and unknown Polerovirus). This highlights the need for more accurate characterization of existing antibodies and where necessary the development of better, virus-specific antibodies to enable their use for accurate diagnosis of Poleroviruses.

First detection of extended-spectrum cephalosporin- and fluoroquinolone-resistant Escherichia coli in Australian food-producing animals

This study aimed to define the frequency of resistance to critically important antimicrobials (CIAs) [i.e. extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs), fluoroquinolones (FQs) and carbapenems] among Escherichia coli isolates causing clinical disease in Australian food-producing animals. Clinical E. coli isolates (n = 324) from Australian food-producing animals [cattle (n = 169), porcine (n = 114), poultry (n = 32) and sheep (n = 9)] were compiled from all veterinary diagnostic laboratories across Australia over a 1-year period. Isolates underwent antimicrobial susceptibility testing to 18 antimicrobials using the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute disc diffusion method. Isolates resistant to CIAs underwent minimum inhibitory concentration determination, multilocus sequence typing (MLST), phylogenetic analysis, plasmid replicon typing, plasmid identification, and virulence and antimicrobial resistance gene typing. The 324 E. coli isolates from different sources exhibited a variable frequency of resistance to tetracycline (29.0–88.6%), ampicillin (9.4–71.1%), trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (11.1–67.5%) and streptomycin (21.9–69.3%), whereas none were resistant to imipenem or amikacin. Resistance was detected, albeit at low frequency, to ESCs (bovine isolates, 1%; porcine isolates, 3%) and FQs (porcine isolates, 1%). Most ESC- and FQ-resistant isolates represented globally disseminated E. coli lineages (ST117, ST744, ST10 and ST1). Only a single porcine E. coli isolate (ST100) was identified as a classic porcine enterotoxigenic E. coli strain (non-zoonotic animal pathogen) that exhibited ESC resistance via acquisition of blaCMY-2. This study uniquely establishes the presence of resistance to CIAs among clinical E. coli isolates from Australian food-producing animals, largely attributed to globally disseminated FQ- and ESC-resistant E. coli lineages.

Bioactive Properties of Mushroom (Agaricus bisporus) Stipe Extracts

The antibacterial activity and total phenolic (TP) content of Agaricus bisporus stipes were assessed using solvent and water extracts to determine its bioactivity. Extraction methods included accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) and hot water followed by membrane concentration. Water extract from ASE had the highest TP of 1.08 gallic acid equivalents (GAE)/g dry weight (DW) followed by ethanol at 0.61 mg GAE/g DW and 0.11 mg GAE/g DW for acetone. Acetone extracts inhibited Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus at less than 50%; ethanol inhibited E. coli at 61.9% and S. aureus at 56.6%; and ASE water inhibited E. coli at 78.6% and S. aureus at 65.4%. The TP content of membrane concentrated extract of mushroom was 17 mg GAE in 100 mL. Membrane concentrated water extracts had a higher percentage inhibition on S. aureus than E. coli. Overall, the results were promising for further application of mushroom stipe extracts as a functional food additive. Practical Applications Mushrooms are known for their health benefits and have been identified as a good source of nutrients. The highly perishable nature of mushrooms warrants further processing and preservation to minimize losses along the supply chain. This study explores the possibility of adding value to mushroom stipes, a by-product of the fresh mushroom industry. The extracts assessed indicate the antibacterial activity and phenolic content, and the potential of using these extracts as functional ingredients in the food industry. This study provides valuable information to the scientific community and to the industries developing novel ingredients to meet the market demand for natural food additives.

Essential Oils in Food Applications

Historical use of essential oils (EOs) from Australian native plants for therapeutic and food purposes, both by the indigenous people and the early colonial settlers, have been reported. The use of EOs in food applications is based on the needs of today's consumer looking for wholesome food without chemical preservatives. This green consumerism has also spread to agricultural practices and increasingly there is a demand for the use of environmentally friendly alternatives to replace conventional insecticides. There is also an increasing demand for new flavors in the food and beverage sector and EOs, with their unique and exciting aromas and flavors, can contribute to this market need. However, it is important to note that each geographical region has considerable variability in the types of plants from which EOs are derived. This chapter illustrates this with reference to Australia and covers trends in the use of Australian native EOs in food and agriculture applications.

Improving food supply

Improving the availability, accessibility and affordability of healthy food equitably is fundamental to improving nutrition and health. While theoretical models abound, in real world complex systems rarely are there opportunities to address leverage points systematically to improve food supply. This presentation describes efforts over the last 30 years to do just that by remote Australian Aboriginal communities, where a single community store is usually the major dietary source. Areas addressed include store governance and infrastructure, wholesale supply, transport and pricing policies including cross-subsidization. However, while there have been dramatic improvements in the availability, quality and price of fruit, vegetables and most other healthy foods over this time, the proportion of communities' energy intake from energy-dense nutrient-poor foods and drinks has increased. One cause may be the disproportionate increase in supply of unhealthy choices in terms of variety and shelf-space, consistent with changes in the food supply in broader Australia. The impact of changing social and environmental factors, food preferences and price elasticity will also be explored briefly. Clearly much more needs to be done to reduce the high prevalence of diet-related chronic disease in some vulnerable groups. In particular, efforts to continually improve the availability and affordability of healthy food also need to address the predominance of unhealthy choices in the food supply.

Food price and affordability update

This presentation outlines recent achievements in development of tools, protocols and methods to monitoring and benchmark food prices and affordability globally under International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support(INFORMAS)