Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Analysis of classification accuracy for pre-filtered multichannel remote sensing data

Noise is one of the main factors degrading the quality of original multichannel remote sensing data and its presence influences classification efficiency, object detection, etc. Thus, pre-filtering is often used to remove noise and improve the solving of final tasks of multichannel remote sensing. Recent studies indicate that a classical model of additive noise is not adequate enough for images formed by modern multichannel sensors operating in visible and infrared bands. However, this fact is often ignored by researchers designing noise removal methods and algorithms. Because of this, we focus on the classification of multichannel remote sensing images in the case of signal-dependent noise present in component images. Three approaches to filtering of multichannel images for the considered noise model are analysed, all based on discrete cosine transform in blocks. The study is carried out not only in terms of conventional efficiency metrics used in filtering (MSE) but also in terms of multichannel data classification accuracy (probability of correct classification, confusion matrix). The proposed classification system combines the pre-processing stage where a DCT-based filter processes the blocks of the multichannel remote sensing image and the classification stage. Two modern classifiers are employed, radial basis function neural network and support vector machines. Simulations are carried out for three-channel image of Landsat TM sensor. Different cases of learning are considered: using noise-free samples of the test multichannel image, the noisy multichannel image and the pre-filtered one. It is shown that the use of the pre-filtered image for training produces better classification in comparison to the case of learning for the noisy image. It is demonstrated that the best results for both groups of quantitative criteria are provided if a proposed 3D discrete cosine transform filter equipped by variance stabilizing transform is applied. The classification results obtained for data pre-filtered in different ways are in agreement for both considered classifiers. Comparison of classifier performance is carried out as well. The radial basis neural network classifier is less sensitive to noise in original images, but after pre-filtering the performance of both classifiers is approximately the same.

A new procedure to optimize the selection of groups in a classification tree

Agglomerative cluster analyses encompass many techniques, which have been widely used in various fields of science. In biology, and specifically ecology, datasets are generally highly variable and may contain outliers, which increase the difficulty to identify the number of clusters. Here we present a new criterion to determine statistically the optimal level of partition in a classification tree. The criterion robustness is tested against perturbated data (outliers) using an observation or variable with values randomly generated. The technique, called Random Simulation Test (RST), is tested on (1) the well-known Iris dataset [Fisher, R.A., 1936. The use of multiple measurements in taxonomic problems. Ann. Eugenic. 7, 179–188], (2) simulated data with predetermined numbers of clusters following Milligan and Cooper [Milligan, G.W., Cooper, M.C., 1985. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set. Psychometrika 50, 159–179] and finally (3) is applied on real copepod communities data previously analyzed in Beaugrand et al. [Beaugrand, G., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J.A., Reid, P.C., 2002. Diversity of calanoid copepods in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas: species associations and biogeography. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 179–195]. The technique is compared to several standard techniques. RST performed generally better than existing algorithms on simulated data and proved to be especially efficient with highly variable datasets.

Satellite discrimination of Karenia mikimotoi and Phaeocystis harmful algal blooms in European coastal waters: Merged classification of ocean colour data

The detection of dense harmful algal blooms (HABs) by satellite remote sensing is usually based on analysis of chlorophyll-a as a proxy. However, this approach does not provide information about the potential harm of bloom, nor can it identify the dominant species. The developed HAB risk classification method employs a fully automatic data-driven approach to identify key characteristics of water leaving radiances and derived quantities, and to classify pixels into “harmful”, “non-harmful” and “no bloom” categories using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Discrimination accuracy is increased through the use of spectral ratios of water leaving radiances, absorption and backscattering. To reduce the false alarm rate the data that cannot be reliably classified are automatically labelled as “unknown”. This method can be trained on different HAB species or extended to new sensors and then applied to generate independent HAB risk maps; these can be fused with other sensors to fill gaps or improve spatial or temporal resolution. The HAB discrimination technique has obtained accurate results on MODIS and MERIS data, correctly identifying 89% of Phaeocystis globosa HABs in the southern North Sea and 88% of Karenia mikimotoi blooms in the Western English Channel. A linear transformation of the ocean colour discriminants is used to estimate harmful cell counts, demonstrating greater accuracy than if based on chlorophyll-a; this will facilitate its integration into a HAB early warning system operating in the southern North Sea.

Marine ecosystem services: Linking indicators to their classification

There is a multitude of ecosystem service classifications available within the literature, each with its own advantages and drawbacks. Elements of them have been used to tailor a generic ecosystem service classification for the marine environment and then for a case study site within the North Sea: the Dogger Bank. Indicators for each of the ecosystem services, deemed relevant to the case study site, were identified. Each indicator was then assessed against a set of agreed criteria to ensure its relevance and applicability to environmental management. This paper identifies the need to distinguish between indicators of ecosystem services that are entirely ecological in nature (and largely reveal the potential of an ecosystem to provide ecosystem services), indicators for the ecological processes contributing to the delivery of these services, and indicators of benefits that reveal the realized human use or enjoyment of an ecosystem service. It highlights some of the difficulties faced in selecting meaningful indicators, such as problems of specificity, spatial disconnect and the considerable uncertainty about marine species, habitats and the processes, functions and services they contribute to.