Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Credit risk measures: a case of renewable energy companies

The Basel III will have a significant impact on the European banking sector. In September 2010, supervisors of various countries adopted the new rules proposed by the prudential Committee on Banking Supervision to be applied to the business of credit institutions (hereinafter called ICs) in a phased manner from 2013, assuming to its full implementation by 2019. The purpose of this new regulation is to limit the excessive risk that these institutions took on the period preceding the global financial crisis of 2008. This new regulation is known in slang by Basel III. Depending on the requirement of Basel II for banks and their supervisors to assess the soundness and adequacy of internal risk measurement and credit management systems, the development of methodologies for the validation of internal and external evaluation systems is clearly an important issue . More specifically, there is a need to develop tools to validate the systems used to generate the parameters (such as PD, LGD, EAD and ratings of perceived risk) that serve as starting points for the IRB approach for credit risk. In this context, the work is composed of a number of approaches and tools used to evaluate the robustness of these elements IRB systems.

A Review of antenas for indoor positioning systems

This paper provides a review of antennas applied for indoor positioning or localization systems. The desired requirements of those antennas when integrated in anchor nodes (reference nodes) are discussed, according to different localization techniques and their performance. The described antennas will be subdivided into the following sections according to the nature of measurements: received signal strength (RSS), time of flight (ToF), and direction of arrival (DoA). This paper intends to provide a useful guide for antenna designers who are interested in developing suitable antennas for indoor localization systems.

Reshaping higher education systems in the MENA region: the contribution of remote and virtual labs

Learning is not only happening in school or university; it is also an important aspect of the daily life that allows students to remain in their biological and physical environment helping to reshape it, by applying what they have learnt. Today, the higher education sector is a part of important strategies used by countries in order to foster their development. Despite its geographical location, i.e. its closeness to Europe and Asia, the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region still needs an integrated strategy for the advancement, reform, and update of its higher educational landscape. Although some solutions have been experimented in the region in the field of higher education, they have not been able to raise the quality of education to the level comparable that observed in developed countries. In other words, many MENA higher education systems are facing problems, for which solution ought to be sought. We analyse the situation of higher education systems in the MENA countries and the factors that affect the delay in achieving the level of education existing in other world regions, e.g. Europe, especially in the higher education sector. During the discussion, the impact of new technology-enhanced tools, such as remote laboratories, in the process of development and consolidation of MENA universities, is particularly stressed.

Pentagonal parch-excited sectorized antenna for localization systems

A pentagonal patch-excited sectorized antenna (SA) suitable for 2.4-2.5 GHz localization systems was studied and developed. The integration of six patch-excited structures converges into a sectorized antenna called Hive5 that provides gain improvement compared to a patch antenna, maximum variation of 3 dB beam width over the radiation pattern and circular polarization (CP). This antenna is presented and analyzed taking into account the tap length and the flare angle. The proposed antenna in combination with a RF-Switch provides a cost effective solution for localization based on Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) and will be used for implementing angle of arrival (AoA) techniques combined with RF fingerprinting techniques.

Using SysML in systems design

System of systems involves several secondary systems working together with its creation gathering the knowledge of several distinct disciplines and teams, each one with their own background and methods, leading to a difficult communication between them. SysML, a language originated from UML, enables that communication, without background interference, with the use of a rich notation for systems design. This paper analyzes its use through the experience gained in the design of a chemical system with SysML.

On the fractional order control of heat systems

The differentiation of non-integer order has its origin in the seventeenth century, but only in the last two decades appeared the first applications in the area of control theory. In this paper we consider the study of a heat diffusion system based on the application of the fractional calculus concepts. In this perspective, several control methodologies are investigated namely the fractional PID and the Smith predictor. Extensive simulations are presented assessing the performance of the proposed fractional-order algorithms.

Fractional describing function of systems with nonlinear friction

This paper studies the describing function (DF) of systems consisting in a mass subjected to nonlinear friction. The friction force is composed in three components namely, the viscous, the Coulomb and the static forces. The system dynamics is analyzed in the DF perspective revealing a fractional-order behaviour. The reliability of the DF method is evaluated through the signal harmonic content and the limit cycle prediction.

On the initial conditions in continuous-time fractional linear systems

Signal Processing, Vol. 83, nº 11

Assessment and optimization of wind energy integration into the power systems: application to the portuguese system

The increasing integration of wind energy in power systems can be responsible for the occurrence of over-generation, especially during the off-peak periods. This paper presents a dedicated methodology to identify and quantify the occurrence of this over-generation and to evaluate some of the solutions that can be adopted to mitigate this problem. The methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in which the wind energy is expected to represent more than 25% of the installed capacity in a near future. The results show that the pumped-hydro units will not provide enough energy storage capacity and, therefore, wind curtailments are expected to occur in the Portuguese system. Additional energy storage devices can be implemented to offset the wind energy curtailments. However, the investment analysis performed show that they are not economically viable, due to the present high capital costs involved.

Introduction to fractional linear systems. Part 1 : continuous-time case

IEE Proceedings - Vision, Image, and Signal Processing, Vol. 147, nº 1

Introduction to fractional linear systems. Part 2: discrete-time case

IEE Proceedings - Vision, Image, and Signal Processing, Vol. 147, nº 1

Real time manufacturing systems simulator

A área da simulação computacional teve um rápido crescimento desde o seu apareciment, sendo actualmente uma das ciências de gestão e de investigação operacional mais utilizadas. O seu princípio baseia-se na replicação da operação de processos ou sistemas ao longo de períodos de tempo, tornando-se assim uma metodologia indispensável para a resolução de variados problemas do mundo real, independentemente da sua complexidade. Das inúmeras áreas de aplicação, nos mais diversos campos, a que mais se destaca é a utilização em sistemas de produção, onde o leque de aplicações disponível é muito vasto. A sua aplicação tem vindo a ser utilizada para solucionar problemas em sistemas de produção, uma vez que permite às empresas ajustar e planear de uma maneira rápida, eficaz e ponderada as suas operações e os seus sistemas, permitindo assim uma rápida adaptação das mesmas às constantes mudanças das necessidades da economia global. As aplicações e packages de simulação têm seguindo as tendências tecnológicas pelo que é notório o recurso a tecnologias orientadas a objectos para o desenvolvimento das mesmas. Este estudo baseou-se, numa primeira fase, na recolha de informação de suporte aos conceitos de modelação e simulação, bem como a respectiva aplicação a sistemas de produção em tempo real. Posteriormente centralizou-se no desenvolvimento de um protótipo de uma aplicação de simulação de ambientes de fabrico em tempo real. O desenvolvimento desta ferramenta teve em vista eventuais fins pedagógicos e uma utilização a nível académico, sendo esta capaz de simular um modelo de um sistema de produção, estando também dotada de animação. Sem deixar de parte a possibilidade de integração de outros módulos ou, até mesmo, em outras plataformas, houve ainda a preocupação acrescida de que a sua implementação recorresse a metodologias de desenvolvimento orientadas a objectos.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Simulação de um Pool Simétrico com validação técnica do despacho provisório e apresentação de medidas corretivas baseadas num despacho ótimo

Os mercados de energia elétrica são atualmente uma realidade um pouco por todo o mundo. Contudo, não é consensual o modelo regulatório a utilizar, o que origina a utilização de diferentes modelos nos diversos países que deram início ao processo de liberalização e de reestruturação do sector elétrico. A esses países, dado que a energia elétrica não é um bem armazenável, pelo menos em grandes quantidades, colocam-se questões importantes relacionadas com a gestão propriamente dita do seu sistema elétrico. Essas questões implicam a adoção de regras impostas pelo regulador que permitam ultrapassar essas questões. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo feito aos mercados de energia elétrica existentes um pouco por todo o mundo e que o autor considerou serem os mais importantes. Foi também feito um estudo de ferramentas de otimização essencialmente baseado em meta-heurísticas aplicadas a problemas relacionados com a operação dos mercados e com os sistemas elétricos de energia, como é o exemplo da resolução do problema do Despacho Económico. Foi desenvolvida uma aplicação que simula o funcionamento de um mercado que atua com o modelo Pool Simétrico, em que são transmitidas as ofertas de venda e compra de energia elétrica por parte dos produtores, por um lado, e dos comercializadores, consumidores elegíveis ou intermediários financeiros, por outro, analisando a viabilidade técnica do Despacho Provisório. A análise da viabilidade técnica do Despacho Provisório é verificada através do modelo DC de trânsito de potências. No caso da inviabilidade do Despacho Provisório, por violação de restrições afetas ao problema, são determinadas medidas corretivas a esse despacho, com base nas ofertas realizadas e recorrendo a um Despacho Ótimo. Para a determinação do Despacho Ótimo recorreu-se à meta-heurística Algoritmos Genéticos. A aplicação foi desenvolvida no software MATLAB utilizando a ferramenta Graphical User Interfaces. A rede de teste utilizada foi a rede de 14 barramentos do Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). A aplicação mostra-se competente no que concerne à simulação de um mercado com tipo de funcionamento Pool Simétrico onde são efetuadas ofertas simples e onde as transações ocorrem no mercado diário, porém, não reflete o problema real relacionado a este tipo de mercados. Trata-se, portanto, de um simulador básico de um mercado de energia cujo modelo de funcionamento se baseia no tipo Pool Simétrico.