Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Conditional performance evaluation and the relevance of money flows for Australian international equity funds

This paper assesses the importance of fund flows in the performance evaluation of Australian international equity funds. Two concepts of fund flows are considered in the context of a conditional asset pricing model. The first measure is net fund flow relative to fund size and the second is net fund flow relative to sector flows. We find that incorporating a fund flow measure relative to the sector flow results in a reduction of measured perverse market timing. The results indicate that, at the individual fund level, cash flows are relevant in assessing management outcomes.

On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing foreign bank efficiency models for DEA grounded in finance theory

We develop foreign bank technical, cost and profit efficiency models for particular application with data envelopment analysis (DEA). Key motivations for the paper are (a) the often-observed practice of choosing inputs and outputs where the selection process is poorly explained and linkages to theory are unclear, and (b) foreign bank productivity analysis, which has been neglected in DEA banking literature. The main aim is to demonstrate a process grounded in finance and banking theories for developing bank efficiency models, which can bring comparability and direction to empirical productivity studies. We expect this paper to foster empirical bank productivity studies.

Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

Relationship between franking credits and the market risk premium

In a dividend imputation tax system, equity investors have three potential sources of return: dividends, capital gains and franking (tax) credits. However, the standard procedures for estimating the market risk premium (MRP) for use in the capital asset pricing model, ignore the value of franking credits. Officer (1994) notes that if franking credits do affect the corporate cost of capital, their value must be added to the standard estimates of MRP. In the present paper, we explicitly derive the relationship between the value of franking credits (gamma) and the MRP. We show that the standard parameter estimates that have been adopted in practice (especially by Australian regulators) violate this deterministic mathematical relationship. We also show how information on dividend yields and effective tax rates bounds the values that can be reasonably used for gamma and the MRP. We make recommendations for how estimates of the MRP should be adjusted to reflect the value of franking credits in an internally consistent manner.

Conditional risk, return and contagion in the banking sector in Asia

This paper investigates risk and return in the banking sector in three Asian markets of Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. The study focuses on the risk-return relation in a conditional factor GARCH-M framework that controls for time-series effects. The factor approach is adopted to incorporate intra-industry contagion and an analysis of spillovers between large banks and small banks. Finally, the study provides evidence on these relations before and after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The results are generally consistent across the markets and with expectations.

Structure and dynamics of the Shapley Supercluster - Velocity catalogue, general morphology and mass

We present results of our wide-field redshift survey of galaxies in a 285 square degree region of the Shapley Supercluster (SSC), based on a set of 10 529 velocity measurements (including 1201 new ones) on 8632 galaxies obtained from various telescopes and from the literature. Our data reveal that the main plane of the SSC (v approximate to 14 500 km s(-1)) extends further than previous estimates, filling the whole extent of our survey region of 12 degrees by 30 degrees on the sky (30 x 75 h(-1) Mpc). There is also a connecting structure associated with the slightly nearer Abell 3571 cluster complex (v approximate to 12 000 km s(-1)). These galaxies seem to link two previously identified sheets of galaxies and establish a connection with a third one at v = 15 000 km s(-1) near RA = 13(h). They also tend to fill the gap of galaxies between the foreground Hydra-Centaurus region and the more distant SSC. In the velocity range of the Shapley Supercluster (9000 km s(-1) < cz < 18 000 km s(-1)), we found redshift-space overdensities with b(j) < 17.5 of similar or equal to 5.4 over the 225 square degree central region and similar or equal to 3.8 in a 192 square degree region excluding rich clusters. Over the large region of our survey, we find that the intercluster galaxies make up 48 per cent of the observed galaxies in the SSC region and, accounting for the different completeness, may contribute nearly twice as much mass as the cluster galaxies. In this paper, we discuss the completeness of the velocity catalogue, the morphology of the supercluster, the global overdensity, and some properties of the individual galaxy clusters in the Supercluster.

What determines the finance-growth nexus? Empirical evidence for threshold models

This paper elaborates the notion of balanced'' financial development that is contingent on a country's general level of development. We develop an empirical framework to address this point, referring to threshold regressions and a bootstrap test for structural shift in a growth equation. We find that countries gain less from financial activity, if the latter fails to keep up with or exceeds what would follow from a balanced expansion path. These analyses contribute to the finance and growth literature in providing empirical support for the balanced'' financial development hypothesis.