Survey of Agricultural Practices and Alternatives to Pesticide Use to Conserve Water Resources in the Mojanda Watershed, Ecuador

Agriculture in the Mojanda Watershed is facing rainfall reductions caused by climate change. Reductions of water availability in the Watershed are also due to constant extension of the agricultural activities into the páramo ecosystem above 3000m a.s.l., with this ecosystem having immanently important functions in the local water balance. The application of pesticides threatens the quality of water and with less precipitation contaminations will further concentrate in the outflow. To analyze problems associated with agricultural practices in the area a questionnaire about agricultural practices (28) was conducted and fields (20) were surveyed for pests and diseases with a focus on potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), tree tomatoes (Solanum betaceum Cav.) and peas (Pisum sativum L.). Potatoes were infected to a low degree with Phytophthora infestans and according to the farmers the Andean potato weevil (Premnotrypes spec.) caused biggest losses. To combat the weevil the soils are disinfected with toxic Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B). Tree tomatoes showed symptoms of various fungal diseases. Most important was Fusarium solani causing the branches to rot and Anthracnosis (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) causing the fruits to rot. Fungicide applications were correspondingly high. Peas were only minorly affected by Ascochyta blight (Mycosphaerella pinodes) and a root rot. Overall 19 active ingredients were applied of which fungicide Mancozeb (WHO class table 5) and insecticide Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B) were applied the most. Approved IPM methods are advised to reduce pesticide use. For tree tomatoes regular cutting of branches infected with F. solani and regular collection and disposal of infected fruits with Anthracnosis are advised. For potatoes plastic barriers around the fields prevent the Andean potato weevil from laying eggs thus reducing infestation with the larvae in the tubers. Local bioinsecticide “Biol” seems effective and without harm to the environment, although not used by many farmers. Organic fertilization promises to restore decreasing soil fertility, water holding capacity and reduce erosion. The here presented alternatives and strategies to reduce pesticide use pose an opportunity to preserve the water resources of the region.

Alley cropping of willows and grassland for bioenergy provision: productivity, tree-crop interactions and energy balance

The demand for biomass for bioenergy has increased rapidly in industrialized countries in the recent years. Biogenic energy carriers are known to reduce CO2 emissions. However, the resource-inefficient production of biomass often caused negative impacts on the environment, e.g. biodiversity losses, nitrate leaching, and erosion. The detrimental effects evolved mainly from annual crops. Therefore, the aim of modern bioenergy cropping systems is to combine yield stability and environmental benefits by the establishment of mixed-cropping systems. A particular emphasis is on perennial crops which are perceived as environmentally superior to annual crops. Agroforestry systems represent such mixed perennial cropping systems and consist of a mix of trees and arable crops or grassland within the same area of land. Agroforestry practices vary across the globe and alley cropping is a type of agroforestry system which is well adapted to the temperate zone, with a high degree of mechanization. Trees are planted in rows and crops are planted in the alleyways, which facilitates their management by machinery. This study was conducted to examine a young alley cropping system of willows and two grassland mixtures for bioenergy provision under temperate climate conditions. The first part of the thesis identified possible competition effects between willows and the two grassland mixtures. Since light seemed to be the factor most affecting the yield performance of the understory in temperate agroforestry systems, a biennial in situ artificial shade experiment was established over a separate clover-grass stand to quantify the effects of shade. Data to possible below- and aboveground interactions among willows and the two grassland mixtures and their effects on productivity, sward composition, and quality were monitored along a tree-grassland interface within the alleys. In the second part, productivity of the alley cropping system was examined on a triennial time frame and compared to separate grassland and willow stands as controls. Three different conversion technologies (combustion of hay, integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass, whole crop digestion) were applied to grassland biomass as feedstock and analyzed for its energetic potential. The energetic potential of willow wood chips was calculated by applying combustion as conversion technique. Net energy balances of separate grassland stands, agroforestry and pure willow stands evaluated their energy efficiency. Results of the biennial artificial shade experiment showed that severe shade (80 % light reduction) halved grassland productivity on average compared to a non-shaded control. White clover as heliophilous plant responded sensitively to limited radiation and its dry matter contribution in the sward decreased with increasing shade, whereas non-leguminous forbs (mainly segetal species) benefited. Changes in nutritive quality could not be confirmed by this experiment. Through the study on interactions within the alleys of the young agroforestry system it was possible to outline changes of incident light, soil temperature and sward composition of clover-grass along the tree-grassland interface. Nearly no effects of trees on precipitation, soil moisture and understory productivity occurred along the interface during the biennial experiment. Considering the results of the productivity and the net energy yield alley cropping system had lower than pure grassland stands, irrespective of the grassland seed mixture or fertilization, but was higher than that for pure willow stands. The comparison of three different energetic conversion techniques for the grassland biomass showed highest net energy yields for hay combustion, whereas the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass (IFBB) and whole crop digestion performed similarly. However, due to the low fuel quality of hay, its direct combustion cannot be recommended as a viable conversion technique, whereas IFBB fuels were of a similar quality to wood chip from willow.

Integrated bioenergy and food production

Rising global energy needs and limited fossil fuel reserves have led to increased use of renewable energies. In Germany, this has entailed massive exploitation of agricultural biomass for biogas generation, associated with unsustainable farming practices. Organic agriculture not only reduces negative environmental impacts, organic farmers were also prime movers in anaerobic digestion (AD) in Germany. This study’s aim was to identify the structure, development, and characteristics of biogas production associated with organic farming systems in order to estimate further development, as well as energetic and associated agronomic potentials. Surveys were conducted among organic farms with AD technology. 144 biogas plants could be included in the analysis. Total installed electrical capacity was 30.8 MWel, accounting for only 0.8% of the total installed electrical capacity in the German biogas sector. Recently, larger plant types (>250 kWel) with increased use of (also purchased) energy crops have emerged. Farmers noticed increases in yields (22% on average) and quality of cash crops in arable farming through integrated biogas production. In conclusion, although the share of AD in organic farming is relatively small it can provide various complementary socio-ecological benefits such as the enhancement of food output through digestate fertilization without additional need for land, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions from livestock manures and soils. However, to achieve this eco-functional intensification, AD systems and their management have to be well adapted to farm size and production focus and based primarily on residue biomass.

Compositional ideas in the bayesian analysis of categorical data with application to dose finding clinical trials

Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data. Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositional data have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categorical data. This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986) in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the problem of what parameterization to use

Multi-isotopic and compositional exploration of factors controlling nitrate pollution

In Catalonia, according to the nitrate directive (91/676/EU), nine areas have been declared as vulnerable to nitrate pollution from agricultural sources (Decret 283/1998 and Decret 479/2004). Five of these areas have been studied coupling hydro chemical data with a multi-isotopic approach (Vitòria et al. 2005, Otero et al. 2007, Puig et al. 2007), in an ongoing research project looking for an integrated application of classical hydrochemistry data, with a comprehensive isotopic characterisation (δ15N and δ18O of dissolved nitrate, δ34S and δ18O of dissolved sulphate, δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon, and δD and δ18O of water). Within this general frame, the contribution presented explores compositional ways of: (i) distinguish agrochemicals and manure N pollution, (ii) quantify natural attenuation of nitrate (denitrification), and identify possible controlling factors. To achieve this two-fold goal, the following techniques have been used. Separate biplots of each suite of data show that each studied region has a distinct δ34S and pH signatures, but they are homogeneous with regard to NO3- related variables. Also, the geochemical variables were projected onto the compositional directions associated with the possible denitrification reactions in each region. The resulting balances can be plot together with some isotopes, to assess their likelihood of occurrence

Intraovarian sperm storage in Helicolenus dactylopterus dactylopterus fertilitzation, crypt formation and maintenance of stored sperm

The females of the bluemouth rockfish, Helicolenus dactylopterus dactylopterus (DelaRoche, 1809), store sperm within their ovaries for periods of up to 10 months. Twenty six females with standard lengths between 152 and 257 mm and six males with standard lengths between 253 and 209 mm were caught storage crypts with stored spermatozoa and to describe their evolution over the year. After internal fertilization and once sperm reaches the ovary, a crypt forms probably by an epithelial inclusion at the base of the lamellae of one or several spermatozoa groups that are floating freely in the interlamellar space of the ovarian lumen. Stored spermatozoa have a large cytoplasm bag surrounding their heads. This bag could serve as a nutritive reservoir during the long storage period. Many desmosonal and tight junctions between the crypt cells ensure tha male sex cells are protected against the female immune system

L'emmagatzematge intraovàric d'esperma en Helicolenus dactylopterus (Pisces: Scorpaeniformes)

El penegal, Helicolenus dactylopterus dactylopterus (Pisces: Scorpaeniformes), és una espècie que habita profunditats d'entre els 200 i 1000 m i presenta una clara distribució batimètrica en funció de la seva talla. Presenta fecundació interna i a l'interior de l'ovari conté estructures d'emmagatzematge que permeten emmagatzemar l'esperma durant períodes de temps considerablement llargs. Les cèl·lules sexuals masculines es mantenen viables gràcies a diverses substàncies nutritives que obtenen de la bossa citoplasmàtica i de l'epiteli criptal que delimita les estructures d'emmagatzematge. Aquest epiteli és també responsable de la seva protecció. Un cop els ous han assolit la maduresa, els espermatozoides són alliberats al lumen ovàric i es dóna la fertilització. És una espècie zigòpara: allibera òvuls fecundats que han estat retinguts al tracte reproductiu femení durant un curt període de temps i, per tant, els embrions són alliberats en estadis molt primerencs de desenvolupament. Així, el penegal presenta una estratègia reproductiva evidentment eficaç.

L'oviparisme en la família Scorpaenidae (Pisces: Scorpaeniformes)

En aquest treball de tesi doctoral es descriu l'estructura gonadal, gametogènesi i cicle anual de Scorpaena porcus, S. scrofa i S. elongata per tal d'aprofundir en el coneixement dels diferents graus d'especialització dins l'oviparisme en peixos. Es pretén fer èmfasi en aquells trets inusuals que difereixen del què s'ha descrit fins ara per la majoria de les espècies ovípares de teleostis, i relacionar-los amb l'estratègia reproductiva de les espècies que els presenten El mostreig s'ha dut a terme de forma intensiva entre l'any 2000 i 2002, tot i que s'ha continuat recol·lectant mostres fins a l'agost de 2004, amb més o menys freqüència segons la necessitat. En total s'han obtingut 258 exemplars de S. porcus, 119 de S. scrofa i 46 de S. elongata. S'ha pogut veure com S. porcus, S. scrofa i S. elongata són espècies ovípares ovulípares especialitzades, ja que la seva estructura ovàrica presenta tot una sèrie de trets molt particulars i poc comuns a la resta de peixos ovípars estudiats fins ara: posició central del raquis musculo-connectiu que es troba envoltat completament pel lumen i la paret ovàrica; presència de peduncles en oòcits en fase de creixement secundari; escassetat i mida petita dels alvèols corticals; poc gruix de la zona radiata; i secreció d'una massa gelatinosa que engloba els ous en el moment de la posta. Totes aquestes característiques també s'han observat en Scorpaena notata, suggerint que l'especialització de l'oviparisme ovulípar es dóna en tot el gènere Scorpaena. L'estructura testicular i l'espermatogènesi d'aquestes espècies també és força particular. Per una banda els testicles són del tipus lobular no-restringit, tot i que presenten algunes característiques com la ordenació parcial dels cists segons l'estadi de maduració de les cèl·lules germinals que contenen i l'absència de lumen central, que actualment només s'ha observat en testicles del tipus lobular restringit de les espècies de la sèrie Aterinomorpha. Per l'altre banda, l'espermatogènesi és del tipus semicística, és a dir, els cists s'obren abans d'acabar tot el procés i les cèl·lules germinals s'acaben de desenvolupar a la llum del lòbul fins a espermatozoides. La posta d'aquestes espècies és múltipla i constisteix en una massa gelatinosa d'ous pelàgica, que en el cas de S. porcus s'alliberen entre els mesos de juny i agost, i en S. scrofa, a partir del mes de juliol. S'ha relacionat la presència d'aquesta massa amb un aparellament mascle-femella, de manera que el mascle alliberaria l'esperma directament sobre la massa d'ous, assegurant així la fartilització total dels mateixos.

La consolidació de la propietat pagesa a Catalunya (el Baix Empordà, 1850-1940)

Aquesta tesi estudia algunes de les transformacions agràries enregistrades en un àmbit comarcal (la comarca catalana del Baix Empordà) entre mitjan segle XIX i mitjan segle XX. EI fil conductor és la distribució de la propietat del sol agrícola. Però per a la seva comprensió es considera necessari integrar moltes altres variables. EI treball també es proposa assajar alguns procediments metodològics poc habituals en l'anàlisi de la distribució de la propietat del sòl agrícola i la seva evolució en època contemporània. Com a hipòtesi central, es sosté que, al Baix Empordà i al llarg del període comprès entre 1850 i 1940, els canvis que varen produir-se en l'estructura de la propietat i, també, en I'estructura social rural, varen apuntar genèricament a favor dels grups pagesos. En particular, es sosté : ( I) Que la situació de partida (de mitjan segle XIX) ja es caracteritzava per un notable pes de la petita propietat pagesa sobre I'estructura de la propietat agrícola i sobre el conjunt del sistema agrari. (2) Que, amb posterioritat a la crisi agrària finisecular, els problemes de rendibilitat de la producció agrària i l'erosió soferta per alguns mecanismes d'extracció de renda varen tendir a allunyar els sectors rendistes que tradicionalment havien exercit la seva hegemonia -econòmica i social- en la societat rural. (3) I, finalment, que al llarg del període va produir-se un avenç de la propietat pagesa com a conseqüència del fet que una porció significativa de famílies pageses aconseguissin ampliar el seu patrimoni territorial a través de compres realitzades en el mercat de terres, alhora que un nombre significatiu de vells grans patrimonis es fraccionava i desfeia. La magnitud d'aquests canvis va ser moderada i no va pas estar exempta d'ambigüitats, però posa de relleu la capacitat de resistència i adequació de l'explotació pagesa a les condicions d'un capitalisme evolvent, malgrat els pronòstics en sentit contrari de molts teòrics. La tesi està articulada en dues parts. En la primera es duu a terme una descripció detallada de les característiques del sistema agrari baixempordanès de mitjan segle XIX amb l'objectiu final de determinar el significat econòmic de les terres posseïdes per cada patrimoni familiar (més enllà de la simple consideració de les superfícies). EI primer pas consisteix en l'anàlisi dels usos del sòl, dels conreus principals i la seva ordenació en rotacions, dels rendiments físics, de les practiques de reposició de la fertilitat i de la dotació ramadera. A continuació es descriuen les tècniques i el procés de treball agrari amb l'objectiu de formular un model d'organització del treball agrícola que permeti mesurar les exigències en treball d'aquesta activitat. Es conclou que, des de la perspectiva de l'ocupació i de la demanda de treball generades pel sistema agrari, les localitats rurals es caracteritzaven per un fort excedent de mà d'obra en relació a les demandes laborals dels conreus tant des d'una perspectiva macroeconòmica com microeconòmica. EI tercer capítol es centra en l'avaluació de les necessitats de consum i reproducció de les UFP. Les estimacions realitzades permeten proposar un model flexible, que és contrastat amb els ingressos potencialment obtenibles per cada patrimoni. S'arriba a la conclusió que només una ínfima part de la població arribava a obtenir, amb l'explotació directa del seu patrimoni, l'ingrés necessari per a la seva reproducció econòmica simple. Paral·lelament però, es posa de relleu la importància econòmica i social dels petits patrimonis pagesos. S'estima que entorn una mitjana del 45% del sòl agrícola estava posseït per aquest segment de propietaris i, en el quart capítol, s'estudien les implicacions d'aquest fet. EI retrat de la situació de partida finalitza amb l'estudi dels règims de no-propietat predominants a la comarca. En la segona part, aquesta visió estàtica deixa pas a una anàlisi dinàmica. A mitjan segle XIX, al Baix Empordà, s'estava arribant a la fi d'una llarga etapa expansiva iniciada una centúria abans. Els primers signes d'esgotament varen ser la intensa pèrdua de població rural entre 1860 i 1880, la paralització de l'expansió dels conreus i el fort desenvolupament de la industria surera, eix del nou motor econòmic comarcal. Amb posterioritat a 1860 els canvis en l'estructura distributiva de la propietat varen tendir a apuntar cap a la consolidació de la propietat pagesa. Es va produir un procés de transferència de terres des dels sectors rendistes cap a sectors pagesos que va realitzar-se a través de compravendes en el mercat de la terra més que a través d'establiments i subestabliments emfitèutics. Va tenir com a conseqüència última el retrocés dels vells patrimonis rendistes, que, en general, no varen ser substituïts per l'aparició de nous grans patrimonis, com havia pogut passar fins aleshores. Paral·lelament, un bon nombre d'unitats familiars rurals també varen anar abandonant el camp i les seves propietats, produint-se una altra línia de transferència de terres entre sectors pagesos. La depreciació sostinguda dels preus agrícoles, la caiguda de la renda agrària, la superior rendibilitat de les inversions en valors mobiliaris i la incidència d'una creixent conflictivitat agrària són els factors que es destaquen per explicar la reculada dels grans patrimonis territorials. Des de la perspectiva pagesa es proposen tres elements explicatius per interpretar el procés d'acumulació patrimonial observat en un determinat segment de població: (1) el manteniment d'estratègies de producció per a l'autoconsum (un aspecte sempre polèmic i de difícil demostració); (2) l'existència d'un flux important d'ingressos salarials i extra-agrícoles en la composició de l'ingrés familiar pagès; i (3) el canvi en les orientacions tècniques i productives de les explotacions pageses. La combinació dels tres, alhora que hauria limitat els efectes directes dels moviments dels preus agraris, hauria possibilitat l'estratègia acumulativa observada.

Equine conceptus development : a mini review

Many aspects of early embryonic development in the horse are unusual or unique; this is of scientific interest and, in some cases, considerable practical significance. During early development the number of different cell types increases rapidly and the organization of these increasingly differentiated cells becomes increasingly intricate as a result of various inter-related processes that occur step-wise or simultaneously in different parts of the conceptus (i.e., the embryo proper and its associated membranes and fluid). Equine conceptus development is of practical interest for many reasons. Most significantly, following a high rate of successful fertilization (71-96%) (Ball, 1988), as many as 30-40% of developing embryos fail to survive beyond the first two weeks of gestation (Ball, 1988), the time at which gastrulation begins. Indeed, despite considerable progress in the development of treatments for common causes of sub-fertility and of assisted reproductive techniques to enhance reproductive efficiency, the need to monitor and rebreed mares that lose a pregnancy or the failure to produce a foal, remain sources of considerable economic loss to the equine breeding industry. Of course, the potential causes of early embryonic death are numerous and varied (e.g. persistent mating induced endometritis, endometrial gland insufficiency, cervical incompetence, corpus luteum (CL) failure, chromosomal, genetic and other unknown factors (LeBlanc, 2004). However, the problem is especially acute in aged mares with a history of poor fertility in which the incidence of embryonic loss between days 2 and 14 after ovulation has been reported to reach 62-73%, and in which embryonic death is due primarily to embryonic defects rather than to uterine pathology (Ball et al., 1989; Carnevale & Ginther, 1995; Ball, 2000).

Controlo populacional do Elefante Africano : a imunocontracepção

A imunocontracepção tem sido proposta como possível ferramenta para controlar populações de elefantes que ultrapassem as capacidades do habitat onde vivem. Até à data a única técnica imunocontraceptiva testada em elefantes selvagens foi a vacina contra a zona pelúcida de elefantes fêmea utilizando zona pelúcida porcina (pZP) numa vacina que induz a formação de anticorpos anti-zona pelúcida e consequente bloqueio do processo de fertilização. A literatura disponível revela que tal vacina tem uma eficácia contraceptiva que varia entre 22% e 100%, pode ser administrada à distância através de um dardo, é segura para animais gestantes, não passa na cadeia alimentar e é reversível, pelo menos a médio prazo. O estudo realizado no âmbito deste trabalho, teve como objectivo avaliar a técnica utilizada para a vacinação com pZP da população de elefantes femêa na Makalali game reserve (Africa do Sul) em relação ao método, tempo, efeitos secundários, e custos envolvidos. Todos os animais foram vacinados apartir de um helicóptero, o processo teve uma duração média por elefante de 2.8 minutos, observou-se efeitos secundários locais em 4 individuos, duas das três manadas evidenciaram alterações comportamentais após a vacinação, e o custo total da operação foi de 3417 dólares americanos.

Stable Isotope Analysis Reveals That Agricultural Habitat Provides an Important Dietary Component for Nonbreeding Dunlin

Although shorebirds spending the winter in temperate areas frequently use estuarine and supratidal (upland) feeding habitats, the relative contribution of each habitat to individual diets has not been directly quantified. We quantified the proportional use that Calidris alpina pacifica (Dunlin) made of estuarine vs. terrestrial farmland resources on the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia, using stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N) of blood from 268 Dunlin over four winters, 1997 through 2000. We tested for individual, age, sex, morphological, seasonal, and weather-related differences in dietary sources. Based on single- (δ13C) and dual-isotope mixing models, the agricultural habitat contributed approximately 38% of Dunlin diet averaged over four winters, with the balance from intertidal flats. However, there was a wide variation among individuals in the extent of agricultural feeding, ranging from about 1% to 95% of diet. Younger birds had a significantly higher terrestrial contribution to diet (43%) than did adults (35%). We estimated that 6% of adults and 13% of juveniles were obtaining at least 75% of their diet from terrestrial sources. The isotope data provided no evidence for sex or overall body size effects on the proportion of diet that is terrestrial in origin. The use of agricultural habitat by Dunlin peaked in early January. Adult Dunlin obtained a greater proportion of their diet terrestrially during periods of lower temperatures and high precipitation, whereas no such relationship existed for juveniles. Seasonal variation in the use of agricultural habitat suggests that it is used more during energetically stressful periods. The terrestrial farmland zone appears to be consistently important as a habitat for juveniles, but for adults it may provide an alternative feeding site used as a buffer against starvation during periods of extreme weather. Loss or reduction of agricultural habitat adjacent to estuaries may negatively impact shorebird fitness, with juveniles disproportionately affected.

Establishing Winter Origins of Migrating Lesser Snow Geese Using Stable Isotopes

Increases in Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens) populations and large-scale habitat changes in North America have contributed to the concentration of migratory waterfowl on fewer wetlands, reducing resource availability, and enhancing risks of disease transmission. Predicting wintering locations of migratory individuals is critical to guide wildlife population management and habitat restoration. We used stable carbon (δ13C), nitrogen (δ15N), and hydrogen (δ2H) isotope ratios in muscle tissue of wintering Snow Geese to discriminate four major wintering areas, the Playa Lake Region, Texas Gulf Coast, Louisiana Gulf Coast, and Arkansas, and infer the wintering locations of individuals collected later during the 2007 and 2008 spring migrations in the Rainwater Basin (RWB) of Nebraska. We predicted the wintering ground derivation of migrating Snow Geese using a likelihood-based approach. Our three-isotope analysis provided an efficient discrimination of the four wintering areas. The assignment model predicted that 53% [95% CI: 37-69] of our sample of Snow Geese from the RWB in 2007 had most likely originated in Louisiana, 38% [23-54] had wintered on Texas Gulf Coast, and 9% [0-20] in Arkansas; the assessment suggested that 89% [73-100] of our 2008 sample had most likely come from Texas Gulf Coast, 9% [0-27] from Louisiana Gulf Coast, and 2% [0-9] from Arkansas. Further segregation of wintering grounds and additional sampling of spring migrating Snow Geese would refine overall assignment and help explain interannual variations in migratory connectivity. The ability to distinguish origins of northbound geese can support the development of spatially-adaptive management strategies for the midcontinent Snow Goose population. Establishing migratory connectivity using isotope assignment techniques can be extended to other waterfowl species to determine critical habitat, evaluate population energy requirements, and inform waterfowl conservation and management strategies.

West African storm tracks and their relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclones

The automatic tracking technique used by Thorncroft and Hodges (2001) has been used to identify coherent vorticity structures at 850hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the ECMWF 40-year reanalysis. The presence of two dominant source regions, north and south of 15ºN over West Africa, for storm tracks over the Atlantic was confirmed. Results show that the southern storm track provides most of the storms that reach the main development region where most tropical cyclones develop. There exists marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of the storms leaving the West African coast, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in the number of West African storm tracks, both in numbers over the land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated with these. In contrast, variance of the 2-6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of African Easterly Wave activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with tropical cyclone activity at interannual timescales.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.