Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Volatility forecasting with range models: An evaluation of new alternatives to the CARR model

The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting ability of the CARR model proposed by Chou (2005) using the S&P 500. We extend the data sample, allowing for the analysis of different stock market circumstances and propose the use of various range estimators in order to analyze their forecasting performance. Our results show that there are two range-based models that outperform the forecasting ability of the GARCH model. The Parkinson model is better for upward trends and volatilities which are higher and lower than the mean while the CARR model is better for downward trends and mean volatilities.

Modelo de avaliação do programa comunitário de intervenção precoce da CERCI Lisboa

Mestrado em Intervenção Socio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde.

Learning to manage in knowledge based organizations: the role of portfolios

Paper presented at the 8th European Conference on Knowledge Management, Barcelona, 6-7 Sep. 2008 URL: http://www.academic-conferences.org/eckm/eckm2007/eckm07-home.htm

Evaluation of the respiratory motion effect in small animal PET images with GATE Monte Carlo simulations

The rapid growth in genetics and molecular biology combined with the development of techniques for genetically engineering small animals has led to increased interest in in vivo small animal imaging. Small animal imaging has been applied frequently to the imaging of small animals (mice and rats), which are ubiquitous in modeling human diseases and testing treatments. The use of PET in small animals allows the use of subjects as their own control, reducing the interanimal variability. This allows performing longitudinal studies on the same animal and improves the accuracy of biological models. However, small animal PET still suffers from several limitations. The amounts of radiotracers needed, limited scanner sensitivity, image resolution and image quantification issues, all could clearly benefit from additional research. Because nuclear medicine imaging deals with radioactive decay, the emission of radiation energy through photons and particles alongside with the detection of these quanta and particles in different materials make Monte Carlo method an important simulation tool in both nuclear medicine research and clinical practice. In order to optimize the quantitative use of PET in clinical practice, data- and image-processing methods are also a field of intense interest and development. The evaluation of such methods often relies on the use of simulated data and images since these offer control of the ground truth. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for PET simulation since they take into account all the random processes involved in PET imaging, from the emission of the positron to the detection of the photons by the detectors. Simulation techniques have become an importance and indispensable complement to a wide range of problems that could not be addressed by experimental or analytical approaches.

Evaluation of a program to reduce back pain in nursing personnel

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a program designed to reduce back pain in nursing aides. METHODS: Female nursing aides from a university hospital who had suffered episodes of back pain for at least six months were included in the study. Participants were randomly divided into a control group and an intervention group. The intervention program involved a set of exercises and an educational component stressing the ergonomic aspect, administered twice a week during working hours for four months. All subjects answered a structured questionnaire and the intensity of pain was assessed before and after the program using a visual analogue scale (VAS). Student's t-test or the Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test for independent samples, and Chi-square test or the Exact Fisher test for categorical analysis, were used. The McNemar test and the Wilcoxon matched pairs test were used to compare the periods before and after the program. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant decrease in the frequency of cervical pain in the last two months and in the last seven days in the intervention group. There was also a reduction in cervical pain intensity in the two periods (2 months, 7 days) and lumbar pain intensity in the last 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that a program of regular exercise with an emphasis on ergonomics can reduce musculoskeletal symptoms in nursing personnel.

Teaching with Moodle in higher education

Nowadays, with the use of technology and the Internet, education is undergoing significant changes, contemplating new ways of teaching and learning. One of the widely methods of teaching used to promote knowledge, consists in the use of virtual environments available in various formats, taking as example the teaching-learning platforms, which are available online. The Internet access and use of Laptops have created the technological conditions for teachers and students can benefit from the diversity of online information, communication, collaboration and sharing with others. The integration of Internet services in the teaching practices can provide thematic, social and digital enrichment for the agents involved. In this paper we will talk about the advantages of LMS (Learning Management Systems) such as Moodle, to support the presential lectures in higher education. We also will analyse its implications for student support and online interaction, leading educational agents to a mixing of different learning environments, where they can combine face-to-face instruction with computer-mediated instruction, blended-learning, and increases the options for better quality and quantity of human interaction in a learning environment. We also will present some tools traditionally used in online assessment and that are part of the functionalities of Moodle. These tools can provide interesting alternatives to promote a more significant learning and contribute to the development of flexible and customized models of an evaluation which we want to be more efficient.

Folk culture and political power: practices and representations of moliceiro culture in Portugal, cultural sociology

This article analyses the painted panels of the moliceiro boat, a traditional working boat of the Ria de Aveiro region of Portugal. The article examines how the painted panels have been invented and reinvented over time. The boat and its panels are contextualized both within the changing socio-economic conditions of the Ria de Aveiro region, and the changing socio-political conditions of Portugal throughout the 20th century and until the present day. The article historically analyses the social significance of ‘moliceiro culture’, examining in particular the power relations it expresses and its ambiguous past and present relationships with the political and the economic powers of the Portuguese state. The article unpacks some of the complexity of the relations that have pertained between public and private, local and national, folk culture and ‘art’, and popular and institutional in the Ria de Aveiro region in particular, and Portugal more generally.

Evaluation of alcohol outlet density and its relation with violence

OBJECTIVES: The current study set out to investigate alcohol availability in a densely populated, residential area of suburban São Paulo associated with high levels of social deprivation and violence. Gun-related deaths and a heavy concentration of alcohol outlets are notable features of the area surveyed. Given the strong evidence for a link between alcohol availability and a number of alcohol-related problems, including violent crime, measures designed to reduce accessibility have become a favored choice for alcohol prevention programs in recent years. METHODS: The interviewers were 24 residents of the area who were trained for the study. It was selected an area of nineteen streets, covering a total distance of 3.7 km. A profile of each alcohol outlet available on the area was recorded. RESULTS: One hundred and seven alcohol outlets were recorded. The number of other properties in the same area was counted at 1,202. Two measures of outlet density may thus be calculated: the number of outlets per kilometer of roadway (29 outlets/km); and the proportion of all properties that sold alcohol (1 in 12). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study is compared with others which are mainly from developed countries and shown that the area studied have the highest density of alcohol outlet density ever recorded in the medical literature. The implication of this data related to the violence of the region is discussed. By generating a profile of alcohol sales and selling points, it was hoped to gain a better understanding of alcohol access issues within the sample area. Future alcohol prevention policy would be well served by such knowledge.

O papel da supervisão na avaliação de desempenho docente

Com as várias reformulações do processo de avaliação de desempenho docente (ADD), passou-se de um processo de avaliação dos professores assente na autoavaliação do docente, para um sistema de heteroavaliação que visa a prestação de contas e a seleção, mas também a melhoria de práticas e o desenvolvimento profissional, através do acompanhamento supervisivo. No entanto, a conciliação entre estas duas perspetivas não é fácil e tem gerado perplexidades e inquietações entre os avaliadores e entre os avaliados. Com este estudo, pretendemos conhecer a perspetiva de avaliadores e avaliados sobre o papel que a Supervisão detém no processo de avaliação de desempenho do professor e o seu contributo para o desenvolvimento profissional do professor e melhoria das práticas. Assim desenhou-se um plano de estudo qualitativo, exploratório e descritivo procurando captar o ponto de vista dos principais intervenientes no processo. O principal meio de recolha de dados foi a entrevista semiestruturada a 4 professores avaliadores e 4 professores avaliados do Departamento de Matemática e Ciências Experimentais de um Agrupamento de Escolas. Os resultados mostram que os docentes discordam do modelo de ADD, mas que o processo vivenciado teve caraterísticas positivas, dando os avaliadores especial relevância à oportunidade de conhecer outros processos de trabalho, a partir da observação de aulas. Avaliadores e avaliados referem ainda o bom relacionamento estabelecido entre ambos, contradizendo as preocupações expressas quando se pronunciaram sobre os problemas do modelo de avaliação. No entanto, ambos os subgrupos focam a falta de formação e qualificação profissional dos avaliadores. Em termos gerais, é possível concluir que a maior parte das dificuldades atribuídas pelos docentes ao modelo de ADD não foi depois sentida na implementação prática. Por outro lado, na opinião dos docentes, o processo experienciado não teve verdadeiro impacto na melhoria das práticas ou no desenvolvimento profissional dos docentes envolvidos. - Abstract The several reformulations of the process of the teacher performance evaluation made the process of evaluating teachers, which was first based on a self-evaluation change into a straight assessment system, which aims not only accountability and selection, but also the improvement of the practice and professional development through the supervision of the teaching practice. However, the conciliation between these perspectives has not been easy and has generated anxieties and perplexities among evaluators and evaluated. With this study we intend to know the perspective of the evaluators and of the evaluated concerning the role supervision has hold in the process of evaluating a teacher’s performance and its contribution to the professional development of the teacher and to the improvement of his practices. Thus, a qualitative, exploratory and descriptive study plan was drawn to get to know the viewpoint of the intervening ones in the process. The main means for data collection was based on a semi structured interview, targeting 4 teacher evaluators and 4 evaluated teachers of the Experimental Sciences and Mathematics Department of a group of Schools. The results show that teachers disagree with the teacher’s evaluation model, but the experienced process had positive characteristics. Besides, evaluators have given special relevance to the opportunity of getting to know other working methods thanks to the lessons’ observations. Evaluators and evaluated also refer the good relationship between both parts contradicting the fears they had when they first pronounced themselves about this evaluation model. However, both subgroups focus the lack of training and professional qualifications of the evaluators. So it’s possible to conclude that most worries mentioned by the teachers when referring to this model of teacher performance evaluation were not verified during its practical implementation. On the other hand, in the opinion of the involved teachers, the experienced process had no real impact on their practice improvement or on their professional development.

Design of a new test chamber for evaluation of the toxicity of rubber infill

A test chamber was projected and built (according to ISO 16000-9 Standard) to simulate atmospheric conditions experienced by rubber infill (when applied in synthetic turf pitches) and measure accurately the airborne emissions of pollutants such as dusts and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as well as pollutants present in leachates. It should be pointed out that standard ISO 16000-9 is only concerned with the determination of the emission of VOC from building products and furnishing (not specific of synthetic turf materials), whereas other standards are concerned with the emission of leachates only. This procedure is to be considered as a technical option to the lysimeter "global turf system evaluation" when the rubber infill alone is to be evaluated. The advantage of the proposed option considering this "test chamber" is its simplicity and economy. This test chamber is actually installed and being used for tests in LAIST.

Evaluation of intermolecular interactions in thioxanthone derivatives: substituent effect on crystal diversity

A family of 9H-thioxanthen-9-one derivatives and two precursors, 2-[(4-bromophenyl) sulfanyl]-5-nitrobenzoic acid and 2-[(4-aminophenyl) sulfanyl]-5-nitrobenzoic acid, were synthesized and studied in order to assess the role of the different substituent groups in determining the supramolecular motifs. From our results we can conclude that Etter's rules are obeyed: whenever present the -COOH head to head strong hydrogen bonding dimer, R-2(2)(8) synthon, prevails as the dominant interaction. As for -NH2, the best donor when present also follows the expected hierarchy, an NH center dot center dot center dot O(COOH) was formed in the acid precursor (2) and an NH center dot center dot center dot O(C=O) in the thioxanthone (4). The main role played by weaker hydrogen bonds such as CH center dot center dot center dot O, and other intermolecular interactions, pi-pi and Br center dot center dot center dot O, as well as the geometric restraints of packing patterns shows the energetic interplay governing crystal packing. A common feature is the relation between the p-p stacking and the unit cell dimensions. A new synthon notation, R`, introduced in this paper, refers to the possibility of accounting for intra- and intermolecular interactions into recognizable and recurring aggregate patterns.

Influence of an unstable shoe on compensatory postural adjustments: an experimental evaluation

This study attempted to evaluate the influence of using an unstable shoe in muscle re-cruitment strategies and center of pressure (CoP) displacement after the application of an external perturba-tion. Fourteen healthy female subjects participated in this study. The electromyographic activity of medial ga-strocnemius, tibialis anterior, rectus femoris, biceps femoris, rectus abdominis and erector spinae muscles and the kinetic values to calculate the CoP were collected and analyzed after the application of an external pertur-bation with the subject in standing position, with no shoes and using unstable footwear. The results showed increased in medial gastrocnemius activity during the first compensatory postural adjustments and late com-pensatory postural adjustments when using an unstable shoe. There were no differences in standard deviation and maximum peak of anteroposterior displacement of CoP between measurements. From the experimental findings, one can conclude that the use of an unstable shoe leads to an increase in gastrocnemius activity with no increase in CoP displacement following an unexpected external perturbation.

Hydro energy systems management in Portugal: Profit-based evaluation of a mixed-integer nonlinear approach

In this paper, a novel mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to solve the short-term hydro scheduling problem in the day-ahead electricity market, considering not only head-dependency, but also start/stop of units, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. Results from a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro energy systems are presented, showing that the proposedmixed-integer nonlinear approach is proficient. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.