Predictors and outcomes of early motherhood in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Early motherhood is identified as a social problem, and having children at an early age is assumed to lead to psychological distress, welfare dependence and socioeconomic disadvantage. Analysis of responses from 9,689 young participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health was used to examine predictors and outcomes of early motherhood in Australia. Survey 1 (1996, aged 18 - 23) and Survey 2 (2000, aged 22 - 27), were used to categorize women as Childless, Existing Mothers (before Survey 1) and New Mothers (became mothers before Survey 2). Multivariate logistic regressions provided comparisons on sociodemographics, gynaecological variables, psychological wellbeing and health behaviours. Survey 1 data show that Existing Mothers experience socioeconomic disadvantages and unhealthy lifestyles. However, those who will go on to become mothers earlier than their peers already experience similar disadvantages. Further, the Survey 2 data show that, when these pre-existing disadvantages are controlled for, the additional deficits experienced by early mothers are relatively minor. Social disadvantage predisposes women to become mothers early, and to adopt unhealthy behaviours. However, young Australian women cope well with the challenges of early motherhood. In the longer term, unhealthy lifestyles and low education may lead to ill health and disadvantage, but early motherhood is not the initiator of this trajectory.

Remote sensing applied to slope stability in mountainous roads in Iran

The Alborz Mountain range separates the northern part of Iran from the southern part. It also isolates a narrow coastal strip to the south of the Caspian Sea from the Central Iran plateau. Communication between the south and north until the 1950's was via two roads and one rail link. In 1963 work was completed on a major access road via the Haraz Valley (the most physically hostile area in the region). From the beginning the road was plagued by accidents resulting from unstable slopes on either side of the valley. Heavy casualties persuaded the government to undertake major engineering works to eliminate ''black spots" and make the road safe. However, despite substantial and prolonged expenditure the problems were not solved and casualties increased steadily due to the increase in traffic using the road. Another road was built to bypass the Haraz road and opened to traffic in 1983. But closure of the Haraz road was still impossible because of the growth of settlements along the route and the need for access to other installations such as the Lar Dam. The aim of this research was to explore the possibility of applying Landsat MSS imagery to locating black spots along the road and the instability problems. Landsat data had not previously been applied to highway engineering problems in the study area. Aerial photographs are better in general than satellite images for detailed mapping, but Landsat images are superior for reconnaissance and adequate for mapping at the 1 :250,000 scale. The broad overview and lack of distortion in the Landsat imagery make the images ideal for structural interpretation. The results of Landsat digital image analysis showed that certain rock types and structural features can be delineated and mapped. The most unstable areas comprising steep slopes, free of vegetation cover can be identified using image processing techniques. Structural lineaments revealed from the image analysis led to improved results (delineation of unstable features). Damavand Quaternary volcanics were found to be the dominant rock type along a 40 km stretch of the road. These rock types are inherently unstable and partly responsible for the difficulties along the road. For more detailed geological and morphological interpretation a sample of small subscenes was selected and analysed. A special developed image analysis package was designed at Aston for use on a non specialized computing system. Using this package a new and unique method for image classification was developed, allowing accurate delineation of the critical features of the study area.

„Fern im dänischen Norden ein Bruder”:Thomas Mann und Herman Bang. Eine literarische Spurensuche

This study for the first time demonstrates and analyses the full extent of Danish impressionist writer Herman Bang’s influence on one of Germany’s major authors, Thomas Mann. Mann was an avid reader of Bang’s works and he regarded the Scandinavian writer as a kindred spirit, a “brother up north”, who “taught [him] much”. It has previously been accepted that Bang was an inspiration for Mann in his formative years. However, as this study conclusively shows, references to Bang’s works occur throughout Mann’s writings, from the early novellas to the late novels. The book argues that Mann was not only impressed by Bang’s highly individual style of impressionist writing but that his fascination for Bang’s works was to a large extent based on this author’s recurrent depiction of decadence, his handling of artistic motifs and his treatment of erotic themes. Bang’s topical focus on the problematically isolated lives of artists and aristocrats as well as his insights on the destructive nature of love and sexuality – particularly of homoerotic desire – were surprisingly similar to Mann’s own views on these topics and yet provoked him to produce heavily referenced counter versions of Bang’s works. This phenomenon is explored in the context of Mann’s struggle with his own homosexuality and the attraction that death and decadence exerted over him. Most of Mann’s writings are in that way indebted to Bang. In addition, Mann’s frequent use of homoerotic subtexts and his depiction of female characters were noticeably influenced by Bang’s literary techniques. All these different, yet closely interlinked, aspects of Mann’s creative appropriation of Bang’s works are analysed and discussed in this study. To conclude, Mann’s references to Bang’s works are schematised and an attempt is made to characterise Mann’s intertextual practice in general in the context of his famous use of irony.

La utopía interior: Superación del dualismo en los ensayos de Ernesto Sábato

My research attempts to demonstrate how Sábato’s essays have pursued a progressive path that reflects the evolving process of his vision. In light of his essays, I will delineate the themes of solitude, death, desperation, robotization of man, and finally, hope as the antithesis. In my analysis I examine the model created in Sartre’s Existentialism. I also visit the model followed by Nicholas Berdyaeff, who at least offers the possibility of salvation in a world conceived by and for Nothingness. I investigate how these and other tendencies had an initial influence on the essays studied in my research. I concentrate on those essays whose discourse is conditioned by the philosophical foundations of a being that inquires and discerns, discovers and denounces, and finally struggles with the impossibility of reaching the absolute. This foresight, at times apocalyptic, at times utopian, is already present in Sábato’s early works. In my study I attempt to establish how Sábato, in oscillating between the demonic and the romantic, the infernal and utopian, constructs his vision of the world through the symbiotic intertwining of both the fictional and essayistic genres. I focus on an author compromised by a constant debate with the paradoxes and dichotomies that, according to Sábato himself, define Modernity.

Infants' selective attention to faces and prosody of speech: The roles of intersensory redundancy and exploratory time

One of the overarching questions in the field of infant perceptual and cognitive development concerns how selective attention is organized during early development to facilitate learning. The following study examined how infants' selective attention to properties of social events (i.e., prosody of speech and facial identity) changes in real time as a function of intersensory redundancy (redundant audiovisual, nonredundant unimodal visual) and exploratory time. Intersensory redundancy refers to the spatially coordinated and temporally synchronous occurrence of information across multiple senses. Real time macro- and micro-structural change in infants' scanning patterns of dynamic faces was also examined. ^ According to the Intersensory Redundancy Hypothesis, information presented redundantly and in temporal synchrony across two or more senses recruits infants' selective attention and facilitates perceptual learning of highly salient amodal properties (properties that can be perceived across several sensory modalities such as the prosody of speech) at the expense of less salient modality specific properties. Conversely, information presented to only one sense facilitates infants' learning of modality specific properties (properties that are specific to a particular sensory modality such as facial features) at the expense of amodal properties (Bahrick & Lickliter, 2000, 2002). ^ Infants' selective attention and discrimination of prosody of speech and facial configuration was assessed in a modified visual paired comparison paradigm. In redundant audiovisual stimulation, it was predicted infants would show discrimination of prosody of speech in the early phases of exploration and facial configuration in the later phases of exploration. Conversely, in nonredundant unimodal visual stimulation, it was predicted infants would show discrimination of facial identity in the early phases of exploration and prosody of speech in the later phases of exploration. Results provided support for the first prediction and indicated that following redundant audiovisual exposure, infants showed discrimination of prosody of speech earlier in processing time than discrimination of facial identity. Data from the nonredundant unimodal visual condition provided partial support for the second prediction and indicated that infants showed discrimination of facial identity, but not prosody of speech. The dissertation study contributes to the understanding of the nature of infants' selective attention and processing of social events across exploratory time.^

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003–2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country’s own data. Methods Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003–2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). Results According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25–34 years age group. Conclusions The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

La utopía interior: superación del dualismo en los ensayos de Ernesto Sábato

My research attempts to demonstrate how Sábato’s essays have pursued a progressive path that reflects the evolving process of his vision. In light of his essays, I will delineate the themes of solitude, death, desperation, robotization of man, and finally, hope as the antithesis. In my analysis I examine the model created in Sartre’s Existentialism. I also visit the model followed by Nicholas Berdyaeff, who at least offers the possibility of salvation in a world conceived by and for Nothingness. I investigate how these and other tendencies had an initial influence on the essays studied in my research. I concentrate on those essays whose discourse is conditioned by the philosophical foundations of a being that inquires and discerns, discovers and denounces, and finally struggles with the impossibility of reaching the absolute. This foresight, at times apocalyptic, at times utopian, is already present in Sábato’s early works. In my study I attempt to establish how Sábato, in oscillating between the demonic and the romantic, the infernal and utopian, constructs his vision of the world through the symbiotic intertwining of both the fictional and essayistic genres. I focus on an author compromised by a constant debate with the paradoxes and dichotomies that, according to Sábato himself, define Modernity.

Redeeming Faustus: Tracing the pacts of Mariken and Faust from the 1500s to the present

This dissertation uncovers and analyzes the complicated history of the devil’s pact in literature from approximately 1330 to 2015, focusing primarily on texts written in German and Dutch. That the tale of the pact with the devil (the so-called Faustian bargain) is one of the most durable and pliable literary themes is undeniable. Yet for too long, the success of Johann Wolfgang von Goethe’s Faust I (1808) decisively shaped scholarship on early devil’s pact tales, leading to a misreading of the texts with Goethe’s concerns being projected onto the earliest manifestations. But Goethe’s Faust really only borrows from the original Faust his name; the two characters could not be more different. Furthermore, Faustus was not the only early pact-maker character and his tale was neither limited to the German language nor to the Protestant faith. Among others, tales written in Dutch about a female, Catholic, latemedieval pact-maker, Mariken van Nieumeghen (1515), illustrate this. This dissertation seeks to redeem the early modern Faustus texts from its misreading and to broaden the scholarship on the literature of the devil’s pact by considering the Mariken and Faust traditions together.

The first chapter outlines the beginnings of pact literature as a Catholic phenomenon, considering the tales of Theophilus and Pope Joan alongside Mariken of Nijmegen. The second chapter turns to the original Faust tale, the Historia von D. Johann Fausten (1587), best read as a Lutheran response to the Catholic pact literature in the wake of the Reformation. In the third chapter, this dissertation offers a new, united reading of the early modern Faust tradition. The fourth and fifth chapters trace the literary preoccupation with the pacts of both Mariken and Faustus from the late early modern to the present.

The dissertation traces the evolution of these two bodies of literature and provides an in-depth analysis and comparison of the two that has not been done before. It argues for a more global literary scholarship that considers texts across multiple languages and one that takes into consideration the rich body of material of the pact tradition.

TENDENCIA THATCHERITIS OR ENGLISHNESS REMADE: The Fictions of Julian Barnes, Hanif Kureishi and Pat Barker

Julian Barnes, Pat Barker, and Hanif Kureishi are all canonical authors whose fictions are widely believed to reflect the cultural and political state of a nation that is post-war, post-imperial and post-modern. While much has been written on how Barker’s and Kureishi’s early works in particular respond to and intervene in the presiding political narrative of the 1980s – Thatcherism – treatment of how revenants of Thatcherism have shaped these writers’ works from 1990 on has remained cursory. Thatcherism is more than an obvious historical reference point for Barker, Barnes, and Kureishi; their works demonstrate a sophisticated understanding of how Thatcher’s reworkings of the repertoires of Englishness – a representational as well as political and cultural endeavour – persist beyond her time in office. Barnes, Barker, and Kureishi seem to have reached the same conclusion as political and cultural critics: Thatcher and Thatcherism have remade not only the contemporary political and cultural landscapes but also the electorate and consequently the English themselves. Tony Blair’s conception of the New Britain proved less than satisfactory because contemporary repertoires of Englishness repeat and rework historical and not incidentally imperial formulations of England and Englishness rather than envision civic and populist formulations of renewal. Barnes’s England, England and Arthur & George confront the discourse of inevitability that has come to be attached to contemporary formulations of both political and cultural Englishness – both in terms of its predictable demise and its belated celebration. Kureishi’s The Buddha of Suburbia and “The Body” speak to an alteration that has taken place in which historical Englishness and Thatcherism have become complementary rather than contrasting discourses. What Barker’s Border Crossing and Double Vision offer against this backdrop is a subtle interrogation of how renewal itself comes to be a presiding mode of cultural reflection that absorbs revolutionary possibility.

A Framework for Citizen-Centred Social Statistics and Analysis (Working Paper 48)

Economic policy-making has long been more integrated than social policy-making in part because the statistics and much of the analysis that supports economic policy are based on a common conceptual framework – the system of national accounts. People interested in economic analysis and economic policy share a common language of communication, one that includes both concepts and numbers. This paper examines early attempts to develop a system of social statistics that would mirror the system of national accounts, particular the work on the development of social accounts that took place mainly in the 60s and 70s. It explores the reasons why these early initiatives failed but argues that the preconditions now exist to develop a new conceptual framework to support integrated social statistics – and hence a more coherent, effective social policy. Optimism is warranted for two reasons. First, we can make use of the radical transformation that has taken place in information technology both in processing data and in providing wide access to the knowledge that can flow from the data. Second, the conditions exist to begin to shift away from the straight jacket of government-centric social statistics, with its implicit assumption that governments must be the primary actors in finding solutions to social problems. By supporting the decision-making of all the players (particularly individual citizens) who affect social trends and outcomes, we can start to move beyond the sterile, ideological discussions that have dominated much social discourse in the past and begin to build social systems and structures that evolve, almost automatically, based on empirical evidence of ‘what works best for whom’. The paper describes a Canadian approach to developing a framework, or common language, to support the evolution of an integrated, citizen-centric system of social statistics and social analysis. This language supports the traditional social policy that we have today; nothing is lost. However, it also supports a quite different social policy world, one where individual citizens and families (not governments) are seen as the central players – a more empirically-driven world that we have referred to as the ‘enabling society’.

The R2P is Dead, Long Live the R2P: The Successful Separation of Military Intervention from the Responsibility to Protect’

Roland Paris is one of those authors whose work is always enjoyable, as he exploits so well the gap between the policy world and academia. His best work reveals a high level of policy insight often before many of his colleagues in academia have caught up. His secret is an ability to analyse the shifting understandings at policy level and to then articulate them in academic terms as if critiquing current policies. This enables his work to be both popular with policy-makers and with their erstwhile critics in academia. His 2004 monograph, At War’s End, captured the shift from peacekeeping intervention and ‘early exit’ to the extended remits of international statebuilding (‘Institutionalization before Liberalization’). It provided a wonderful rationalisation of policy shifts that had already occurred in the late 1990s, starting with the extension of international mandates in Bosnia, from 1996 onwards, and further developed with the Kosovo protectorate in 1999. However, this shift was skilfully reposed as a critique of existing policy-understandings.

Tifones y gigantes en el mundo macedonio: el rey como símbolo del orden cósmico

Este artículo analiza la existencia de un posible ritual en la antigua Macedonia que fuese similar al Akîtu babilonio. Pensamos que la victoria de Zeus sobre sus enemigos en la gigantomaquia y tifonomaquia fue celebrada por los reyes macedonios para fortalecer su posición en el poder. Aunque no hay evidencias directas de ello, tenemos una serie de diferentes fuentes en las cuales los macedonios están relacionados directa o indirectamente con Tifón y los gigantes. Además, la estratégica importancia del monte Olimpo para los macedonios nos hace pensar que la victoria de Zeus sobre las fuerzas del mal fue conmemorada de alguna forma por ellos.

"Sub Tiberio quies"? Judaea’s Political Situation under the Prefects (6-41 c.e.), between Reality and Ideology

Deeply conflicting views on the political situation of Judaea under the Roman prefects (6-41 c.e.) have been offered. According to some scholars, this was a period of persistent political unrest and agitation, whilst according to a widespread view it was a quiescent period of political calm (reflected in Tacitus’ phrase sub Tiberio quies). The present article critically examines again the main available sources –particularly Josephus, the canonical Gospels and Tacitus– in order to offer a more reliable historical reconstruction. The conclusions drawn by this survey calls into question some widespread and insufficiently nuanced views on the period. This, in turn, allows a reflection on the non-epistemic factors which might contribute to explain the origin of such views.

Modelling and Mining To Manage

In this talk, I will describe various computational modelling and data mining solutions that form the basis of how the office of Deputy Head of Department (Resources) works to serve you. These include lessons I learn about, and from, optimisation issues in resource allocation, uncertainty analysis on league tables, modelling the process of winning external grants, and lessons we learn from student satisfaction surveys, some of which I have attempted to inject into our planning processes.