Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

Multinational companies and productivity spillovers: is there a specification error?

Recent empirical works on the within-sector impact of inward investments on domestic firms’ productivity have found rather robust evidence of no (or even negative) effects. We suggest that, among other reasons, a specification error might explain some of these results. A more general specification, which includes the usual one as a special case, is proposed. Using data on Italian manufacturing firms in 1992–2000, we find positive externalities only once we allow for the more flexible specification.

A priori error analysis of space–time Trefftz discontinuous Galerkin methods for wave problems

We present and analyse a space–time discontinuous Galerkin method for wave propagation problems. The special feature of the scheme is that it is a Trefftz method, namely that trial and test functions are solution of the partial differential equation to be discretised in each element of the (space–time) mesh. The method considered is a modification of the discontinuous Galerkin schemes of Kretzschmar et al. (2014) and of Monk & Richter (2005). For Maxwell’s equations in one space dimension, we prove stability of the method, quasi-optimality, best approximation estimates for polynomial Trefftz spaces and (fully explicit) error bounds with high order in the meshwidth and in the polynomial degree. The analysis framework also applies to scalar wave problems and Maxwell’s equations in higher space dimensions. Some numerical experiments demonstrate the theoretical results proved and the faster convergence compared to the non-Trefftz version of the scheme.

Evaluation of positioning error-induced pixel shifts on satellite linear push-broom imagery

Georeferencing is one of the major tasks of satellite-borne remote sensing. Compared to traditional indirect methods, direct georeferencing through a Global Positioning System/inertial navigation system requires fewer and simpler steps to obtain exterior orientation parameters of remotely sensed images. However, the pixel shift caused by geographic positioning error, which is generally derived from boresight angle as well as terrain topography variation, can have a great impact on the precision of georeferencing. The distribution of pixel shifts introduced by the positioning error on a satellite linear push-broom image is quantitatively analyzed. We use the variation of the object space coordinate to simulate different kinds of positioning errors and terrain topography. Then a total differential method was applied to establish a rigorous sensor model in order to mathematically obtain the relationship between pixel shift and positioning error. Finally, two simulation experiments are conducted using the imaging parameters of Chang’ E-1 satellite to evaluate two different kinds of positioning errors. The experimental results have shown that with the experimental parameters, the maximum pixel shift could reach 1.74 pixels. The proposed approach can be extended to a generic application for imaging error modeling in remote sensing with terrain variation.

An Ensemble Smoother with Error Estimates

A smoother introduced earlier by van Leeuwen and Evensen is applied to a problem in which real obser vations are used in an area with strongly nonlinear dynamics. The derivation is new , but it resembles an earlier derivation by van Leeuwen and Evensen. Again a Bayesian view is taken in which the prior probability density of the model and the probability density of the obser vations are combined to for m a posterior density . The mean and the covariance of this density give the variance-minimizing model evolution and its errors. The assumption is made that the prior probability density is a Gaussian, leading to a linear update equation. Critical evaluation shows when the assumption is justified. This also sheds light on why Kalman filters, in which the same ap- proximation is made, work for nonlinear models. By reference to the derivation, the impact of model and obser vational biases on the equations is discussed, and it is shown that Bayes’ s for mulation can still be used. A practical advantage of the ensemble smoother is that no adjoint equations have to be integrated and that error estimates are easily obtained. The present application shows that for process studies a smoother will give superior results compared to a filter , not only owing to the smooth transitions at obser vation points, but also because the origin of features can be followed back in time. Also its preference over a strong-constraint method is highlighted. Further more, it is argued that the proposed smoother is more efficient than gradient descent methods or than the representer method when error estimates are taken into account

Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.

Meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes within a paper: Possible misuse and Type-1 error inflation

In recent years an increasing number of papers have employed meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes of researchers’ own series of studies within a single paper (“internal meta-analysis”). Although this approach has the obvious advantage of obtaining narrower confidence intervals, we show that it could inadvertently inflate false-positive rates if researchers are motivated to use internal meta-analysis in order to obtain a significant overall effect. Specifically, if one decides whether to stop or continue a further replication experiment depending on the significance of the results in an internal meta-analysis, false-positive rates would increase beyond the nominal level. We conducted a set of Monte-Carlo simulations to demonstrate our argument, and provided a literature review to gauge awareness and prevalence of this issue. Furthermore, we made several recommendations when using internal meta-analysis to make a judgment on statistical significance.

Intracellular trafficking, localization, and mobilization of platelet-borne thiol isomerases

OBJECTIVE: Thiol isomerases facilitate protein folding in the endoplasmic reticulum, and several of these enzymes, including protein disulfide isomerase and ERp57, are mobilized to the surface of activated platelets, where they influence platelet aggregation, blood coagulation, and thrombus formation. In this study, we examined the synthesis and trafficking of thiol isomerases in megakaryocytes, determined their subcellular localization in platelets, and identified the cellular events responsible for their movement to the platelet surface on activation. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Immunofluorescence microscopy imaging was used to localize protein disulfide isomerase and ERp57 in murine and human megakaryocytes at various developmental stages. Immunofluorescence microscopy and subcellular fractionation analysis were used to localize these proteins in platelets to a compartment distinct from known secretory vesicles that overlaps with an inner cell-surface membrane region defined by the endoplasmic/sarcoplasmic reticulum proteins calnexin and sarco/endoplasmic reticulum calcium ATPase 3. Immunofluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry were used to monitor thiol isomerase mobilization in activated platelets in the presence and absence of actin polymerization (inhibited by latrunculin) and in the presence or absence of membrane fusion mediated by Munc13-4 (absent in platelets from Unc13dJinx mice). CONCLUSIONS: Platelet-borne thiol isomerases are trafficked independently of secretory granule contents in megakaryocytes and become concentrated in a subcellular compartment near the inner surface of the platelet outer membrane corresponding to the sarco/endoplasmic reticulum of these cells. Thiol isomerases are mobilized to the surface of activated platelets via a process that requires actin polymerization but not soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive fusion protein attachment receptor/Munc13-4-dependent vesicular-plasma membrane fusion.

An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.

Speech perception and localization abilities in pediatric bilateral sequential cochlear implant recipients

The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate speech perception and localization abilities in children who have received sequential cochlear implants, with the first implant received before age 4 and the second implant received before age 12. Results indicate performance in the bilateral cochlear implant condition is significantly better than listening with each implant alone for the outcome measures used in this study.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

Biochemical and biophysical properties of a highly active recombinant arginase from Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis and subcellular localization of native enzyme

Arginase (L-arginine amidinohydrolase, E.C. 3.5.3.1) is a metalloenzyme that catalyses the hydrolysis Of L-arginine to L-ornithine and urea. In Leishmania spp., the biological role of the enzyme may be involved in modulating NO production upon macrophage infection. Previously, we cloned and characterized the arginase gene from Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis. In the present work, we successfully expressed the recombinant enzyme in E. coli and performed biochemical and biophysical characterization of both the native and recombinant enzymes. We obtained K-M and V-max. values of 23.9(+/- 0.96) mM and 192.3 mu mol/min mg protein (+/- 14.3), respectively, for the native enzyme. For the recombinant counterpart, K-M was 21.5(+/- 0.90) mM and V-max was 144.9(+/- 8.9) mu mol/min mg. Antibody against the recombinant protein confirmed a glycosomal cellular localization of the enzyme in promastigotes. Data from light scattering and small angle X-ray scattering showed that a trimeric state is the active form of the protein. We determined empirically that a manganese wash at room temperature is the best condition to purify active enzyme. The interaction of the recombinant protein with the immobilized nickel also allowed us to confirm the structural disposition of histidine at positions 3 and 324. The determined structural parameters provide substantial data to facilitate the search for selective inhibitors of parasitic sources of arginase, which could subsequently point to a candidate for leishmaniasis therapy. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chromosomal studies in four species of genus Chaunus (Bufonidae, Anura): localization of telomeric and ribosomal sequences after fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) using telomeric and ribosomal sequences was performed in four species of toad genus Chaunus: C. ictericus, C. jimi, C. rubescens and C. schneideri. Analyses based on conventional, C-banding and Ag-NOR staining were also carried out. The four species present a 2n = 22 karyotype, composed by metacentric and submetacentric chromosomes, which were indistinguishable either after conventional staining or banding techniques. Constitutive heterochromatin was predominantly located at pericentromeric regions, and telomeric sequences (TTAGGG)(n) were restricted to the end of all chromosomes. Silver staining revealed Ag-NORs located at the short arm of pair 7, and heteromorphism in size of NOR signals was also observed. By contrast, FISH with ribosomal probes clearly demonstrated absence of any heteromorphism in size of rDNA sequences, suggesting that the difference observed after Ag-staining should be attributed to differences in chromosomal condensation and/or gene activity rather than to the number of ribosomal cistrons.