Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Comparison of the Dynamic Response of a Saturated Soil Between Two Models

By comparing the dynamic responses of saturated soil to Biot's and Yamamoto's models, the properties of the two models have be pointed out. First of all, an analysis has been made for energy loss of each model from the basic equations. Then the damping of elastic waves in coarse sand and fine sand with loading frequency and soil's parameters have been calculated and the representation of viscous friction and Coulomb friction in the two models has been concluded. Finally, the variations of loading wave damping and stress phase angles with water depth and soil's parameters have been obtained as loading waves range in ocean waves.

Saturated duration for dynamic structural plastic response and fundamental periods of elastic vibration

The relationship is determined between saturated duration of rectangular pressure pulses applied to rigid, perfectly plastic structures and their fundamental periods of elastic vibration. It is shown that the ratio between the saturated duration and the fundamental period of elastic vibration of a structure is dependent upon two factors: the first one is the slenderness or thinness ratio of the structure; and the second one is the square root of ratio between the Young's elastic modulus and the yield stress of the structural material. Dimensional analysis shows that the aforementioned ratio is one of the basic similarity parameters for elastic-plastic modeling under dynamic loading.

Generalization of Response Number for Dynamic Plastic Response of Shells Subjected to impulsive Loading

A dimensionless number, termed as response number in Zhao [Archive of Applied Mechanics 68 (1998) 524], has been suggested for the dynamic plastic response of beams and plates made up of rigidly perfect plastic materials subjected to dynamic loading. Many theoretical and experimental results can be reformulated into new concise forms with the response number. The concept of a new dimensionless number, response number, termed as Rn(n), is generalized in Zhao [Forschung im Ingenieurwesen 65 (1999) 107] to study the elastic, plastic, dynamic elastic as well as dynamic plastic buckling problems of columns, plates as well as shells. The response number Rn(n) is generalized to the dynamic behaviour of shells of various shapes in the present paper.

Application of response number for dynamic plastic response of plates subjected to impulsive loading

A dimensionless number, termed response number, is applied to the dynamic plastic response of plates subjected to dynamic loading. Many theoretical and experimental results presented by different researchers are reformulated into new concise forms with the response number. The advantage of the new forms is twofold: (1) they are more physically meaningful, and (2) they are independent of the choice of units, thus, they have wider range of applications.

Numerical Analyses of Discrete Gust Response for an Aircraft

Based on Navier-Stokes equations and structural and flight dynamic equations of motion, dynamic responses in vertical discrete gust flow perturbation are investigated for a supersonic transport model. A tightly coupled method was developed by subiterations between aerodynamic equations and dynamic equations of motion. First, under the assumption of rigid-body and single freedom of motion in the vertical plunging, the results of a direct-coupling method are compared with the results of quasi-steady model method. Then, gust responses for the one-minus-cosine gust profile arc analyzed with two freedoms of motion in plunging and pitching for the airplane configurations with and without the consideration of structural deformation.

The Response of Bucket Foundation under Horizontal Dynamic Loading

The experimental investigation of the response of suction bucket foundation in fine sand layer under horizontal dynamic loading has been carried out. The developments of settlement and excess pore pressure of sand foundation have been mainly studied. It is shown that the sand surrounding the bucket softens or even liquefies at the first stage if the loading amplitude is over a critical value, at later stage, the bucket settles and the sand layer consolidates gradually. With the solidification of the liquefied sand layer and the settlement of the bucket, the movement of the sand layer and the bucket reach a stable state.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Impact response and failure mechanisms of ultrahigh modulus polyethylene fiber composites and polyethylene fiber-carbon fiber hybrid composites

The impact response and failure mechanisms of ultrahigh modulus polyethylene (UHMPE) fiber composites and UHMPE fiber-carbon fiber hybrid composites have been investigated. Charpy impact, drop weight impact and high strain rate impact experiments have been performed in order to study the impact resistance, notch sensitivity, strain rate sensitivity and hybrid effects. Results obtained from dynamic and quasi-static measurements have been compared. Because of the ductility of UHMPE fibers, the impact energy absorption of UHMPE fiber composites is very high, thereby leading to excellent damage tolerance. By hybridizing with UHMPE fibers, the impact properties of carbon fiber composites can be greatly improved. The impact and shock failure mechanisms of these composites are discussed.