An intuitive dashboard for Bayesian network inference

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Brake system performance requirements of a lightweight electric/hybrid rear wheel drive vehicle

Investigates the braking performance requirements of the UltraCommuter, a lightweight series hybrid electric vehicle currently under development at the University of Queensland. With a predicted vehicle mass of 600 kg and two in-wheel motors each capable of 500 Nm of peak torque, decelerations up to 0.46 g are theoretically possible using purely regenerative braking. With 99% of braking demands less than 0.35 g, essentially all braking can be regenerative. The wheel motors have sufficient peak torque capability to lock the rear wheels in combination with front axle braking, eliminating the need for friction braking at the rear. Emergency braking levels approaching 1 g are achieved by supplementation with front disk brakes. This paper presents equations describing the peak front and rear axle braking forces which occur under straight line braking, including gradients. Conventionally, to guarantee stability, mechanical front/rear proportioning of braking effort ensures that the front axle locks first. In this application, all braking is initially regenerative at the rear, and an adaptive ''by-wire'' proportioning system presented ensures this stability requirement is still satisfied. Front wheel drive and all wheel drive systems are also discussed. Finally, peak and continuous performance measures, not commonly provided for friction brakes, are derived for the UltraCommuter's motor capability and range of operation.

Lifecycle costs of ultracapacitors in electric vehicle applications

The pulse power characteristics of ultracapacitors appear well suited to electric vehicle applications, where they may supply the peak power more efficiently than the battery, and can prevent excessive over sizing of the battery pack due to peak power demands. Operation of ultracapacitors in battery electric vehicles is examined for possible improvements in system efficiency, vehicle driving range, battery pack lifetime, and potential reductions in system lifecycle cost. The lifecycle operation of these ultracapacitors is simulated using custom-built, dynamic simulation code constructed in Matlab. Despite apparent gains in system efficiency and driving range, the results strongly suggest that the inclusion of ultracapacitors in the electric vehicle does not make sense from a lifecycle cost perspective. Furthermore, a comparison with results from earlier work shows that this outcome is highly dependant upon the efficiency and cost of the battery under consideration. However, it is likely that the lifecycle cost benefits of ultracapacitors in these electric vehicles would be, at most, marginal and do not justify the additional capital costs and system complexity that would be incurred in the vehicle

Simulated lifecycle costs of ultracapacitors in battery electric vehicles

The pulse power characteristics of ultracapacitors appear well suited to electric vehicle applications, where they may supply the peak power more efficiently than the battery, and can prevent excessive over sizing of the battery pack due to peak power demands. Operation of ultracapacitors in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is examined for possible improvements in system efficiency, vehicle driving range, battery pack lifetime, and potential reductions in system lifecycle cost. The lifecycle operation of these ultracapacitors is simulated using a custom-built, dynamic simulation code constructed in Matlab. Despite apparent gains in system efficiency and driving range, the lifecycle cost benefits as simulated appear to be marginal, and are heavily influenced by the incremental cost of power components. However, additional factors are identified which, in reality, will drive ultracapacitors towards viability in electric vehicle applications.

A method of switch selection for an electric vehicle drive

The key to reducing cost of electric vehicles is integration. All too often systems such as the motor, motor controller, batteries and vehicle chassis/body are considered as separate problems. The truth is that a lot of trade-offs can be made between these systems, causing an overall improvement in many areas including total cost. Motor controller and battery cost have a relatively simple relationship; the less energy lost in the motor controller the less energy that has to be carried in the batteries, hence the lower the battery cost. A motor controller’s cost is primarily influenced by the cost of the switches. This paper will therefore present a method of assessing the optimal switch selection on the premise that the optimal switch is the one that produces the lowest system cost, where system cost is the cost of batteries + switches.

A DC circuit breaker for an electric vehicle battery pack

Electric vehicle battery packs require DC circuit breakers for safety. These must break thousands of Amps DC at hundreds of Volts. The Sunshark solar racing car has a 140V 17Ahr battery box which needs such a breaker. A static design using 200V MOSFETs to interrupt the fault current is presented. The design specification, decisions and proposed solution circuit are given. The current sensing technique,MOSFET overvoltage protection, and DC bus capacitor precharging scheme are specific focuses. Simulation results are presented and discussed.

Resources for improving journalists' understanding of the economic and financial parameters of Australia's agricultural and commodity producers

The research addresses how an understanding of the fundamentals of economics will better inform general journalists who report on issues or events affecting rural and regional Australia. The research draws on practice-based experience of the author, formal economics studies, interviews with news editors from Australian television news organisations, and interviews from leading economists. A guidebook has also been written to help journalists apply economic theories to their reporting. The guidebook enables reporters to think strategically and consider the 'big picture' when they inform society about policies, commodity trade, the environment, or any issues involving rural and regional Australia.

First flush behaviour in urban residential catchments

The current state of knowledge in relation to first flush does not provide a clear understanding of the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics in influencing this phenomenon. This is attributed to the inconsistent findings from research studies due to the unsatisfactory selection of first flush indicators and how first flush is defined. The research study discussed in this thesis provides the outcomes of a comprehensive analysis on the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on first flush behaviour in residential catchments. Two sets of first flush indicators are introduced in this study. These indicators were selected such that they are representative in explaining in a systematic manner the characteristics associated with first flush. Stormwater samples and rainfall-runoff data were collected and recorded from stormwater monitoring stations established at three urban catchments at Coomera Waters, Gold Coast, Australia. In addition, historical data were also used to support the data analysis. Three water quality parameters were analysed, namely, total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The data analyses were primarily undertaken using multi criteria decision making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Based on the data obtained, the pollutant load distribution curve (LV) was determined for the individual rainfall events and pollutant types. Accordingly, two sets of first flush indicators were derived from the curve, namely, cumulative load wash-off for every 10% of runoff volume interval (interval first flush indicators or LV) from the beginning of the event and the actual pollutant load wash-off during a 10% increment in runoff volume (section first flush indicators or P). First flush behaviour showed significant variation with pollutant types. TSS and TP showed consistent first flush behaviour. However, the dissolved fraction of TN showed significant differences to TSS and TP first flush while particulate TN showed similarities. Wash-off of TSS, TP and particulate TN during the first 10% of the runoff volume showed no influence from corresponding rainfall intensity. This was attributed to the wash-off of weakly adhered solids on the catchment surface referred to as "short term pollutants" or "weakly adhered solids" load. However, wash-off after 10% of the runoff volume showed dependency on the rainfall intensity. This is attributed to the wash-off of strongly adhered solids being exposed when the weakly adhered solids diminish. The wash-off process was also found to depend on rainfall depth at the end part of the event as the strongly adhered solids are loosened due to impact of rainfall in the earlier part of the event. Events with high intensity rainfall bursts after 70% of the runoff volume did not demonstrate first flush behaviour. This suggests that rainfall pattern plays a critical role in the occurrence of first flush. Rainfall intensity (with respect to the rest of the event) that produces 10% to 20% runoff volume play an important role in defining the magnitude of the first flush. Events can demonstrate high magnitude first flush when the rainfall intensity occurring between 10% and 20% of the runoff volume is comparatively high while low rainfall intensities during this period produces low magnitude first flush. For events with first flush, the phenomenon is clearly visible up to 40% of the runoff volume. This contradicts the common definition that first flush only exists, if for example, 80% of the pollutant mass is transported in the first 30% of runoff volume. First flush behaviour for TN is different compared to TSS and TP. Apart from rainfall characteristics, the composition and the availability of TN on the catchment also play an important role in first flush. The analysis confirmed that events with low rainfall intensity can produce high magnitude first flush for the dissolved fraction of TN, while high rainfall intensity produce low dissolved TN first flush. This is attributed to the source limiting behaviour of dissolved TN wash-off where there is high wash-off during the initial part of a rainfall event irrespective of the intensity. However, for particulate TN, the influence of rainfall intensity on first flush characteristics is similar to TSS and TP. The data analysis also confirmed that first flush can occur as high magnitude first flush, low magnitude first flush or non existence of first flush. Investigation of the influence of catchment characteristics on first flush found that the key factors that influence the phenomenon are the location of the pollutant source, spatial distribution of the pervious and impervious surfaces in the catchment, drainage network layout and slope of the catchment. This confirms that first flush phenomenon cannot be evaluated based on a single or a limited set of parameters as a number of catchment characteristics should be taken into account. Catchments where the pollutant source is located close to the outlet, a high fraction of road surfaces, short travel time to the outlet, with steep slopes can produce high wash-off load during the first 50% of the runoff volume. Rainfall characteristics have a comparatively dominant impact on the wash-off process compared to the catchment characteristics. In addition, the pollutant characteristics also should be taken into account in designing stormwater treatment systems due to different wash-off behaviour. Analysis outcomes confirmed that there is a high TSS load during the first 20% of the runoff volume followed by TN which can extend up to 30% of the runoff volume. In contrast, high TP load can exist during the initial and at the end part of a rainfall event. This is related to the composition of TP available for the wash-off.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network Framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and Exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an $R^2$ goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 hour test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including real time monitoring and `what-if' analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

Characterisation of microvasulature changes after closed soft tissue trauma by contrast enhanced micro-CT imaging

INTRODUCTION It is known that the vascular morphology and functionality are changed following closed soft tissue trauma (CSTT) [1], and bone fractures [2]. The disruption of blood vessels may lead to hypoxia and necrosis. Currently, most clinical methods for the diagnosis and monitoring of CSTT with or without bone fractures are primarily based on qualitative measures or practical experience, making the diagnosis subjective and inaccurate. There is evidence that CSTT and early vascular changes following the injury delay the soft tissue tissue and bone healing [3]. However, a precise qualitative and quantitative morphological assessment of vasculature changes after trauma is currently missing. In this research, we aim to establish a diagnostic framework to assess the 3D vascular morphological changes after standardized CSTT in a rat model qualitatively and quantitatively using contrast-enhanced micro-CT imaging. METHODS An impact device was used for the application of a controlled reproducible CSTT to the left thigh (Biceps Femoris) of anaesthetized male Wistar rats. After euthanizing the animals at 6 hours, 24 hours, 3 days, 7 days, or 14 days after trauma, CSTT was qualitatively evaluated by macroscopic visual observation of the skin and muscles. For visualization of the vasculature, the blood vessels of sacrificed rats were flushed with heparinised saline and then perfused with a radio-opaque contrast agent (Microfil, MV 122, Flowtech, USA) using an infusion pump. After allowing the contrast agent to polymerize overnight, both hind-limbs were dissected, and then the whole injured and contra-lateral control limbs were imaged using a micro-CT scanner (µCT 40, Scanco Medical, Switzerland) to evaluate the vascular morphological changes. Correlated biopsy samples were also taken from the CSTT region of both injured and control legs. The morphological parameters such as the vessel volume ratio (VV/TV), vessel diameter (V.D), spacing (V.Sp), number (V.N), connectivity (V.Conn) and the degree of anisotropy (DA) were then quantified by evaluating the scans of biopsy samples using the micro-CT imaging system. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A qualitative evaluation of the CSTT has shown that the developed impact protocols were capable of producing a defined and reproducible injury within the region of interest (ROI), resulting in a large hematoma and moderate swelling in both lateral and medial sides of the injured legs. Also, the visualization of the vascular network using 3D images confirmed the ability to perfuse the large vessels and a majority of the microvasculature consistently (Figure 1). Quantification of the vascular morphology obtained from correlated biopsy samples has demonstrated that V.D and V.N and V.Sp were significantly higher in the injured legs 24 hours after impact in comparison with the control legs (p<0.05). The evaluation of the other time points is currently progressing. CONCLUSIONS The findings of this research will contribute to a better understanding of the changes to the vascular network architecture following traumatic injuries and during healing process. When interpreted in context of functional changes, such as tissue oxygenation, this will allow for objective diagnosis and monitoring of CSTT and serve as validation for future non-invasive clinical assessment modalities.

Regulation of the Fear Network by Mediators of Stress: Norepinephrine Alters the Balance between Cortical and Subcortical Afferent Excitation of the Lateral Amygdala

Pavlovian auditory fear conditioning involves the integration of information about an acoustic conditioned stimulus (CS) and an aversive unconditioned stimulus in the lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA). The auditory CS reaches the LA subcortically via a direct connection from the auditory thalamus and also from the auditory association cortex itself. How neural modulators, especially those activated during stress, such as norepinephrine (NE), regulate synaptic transmission and plasticity in this network is poorly understood. Here we show that NE inhibits synaptic transmission in both the subcortical and cortical input pathway but that sensory processing is biased toward the subcortical pathway. In addition binding of NE to β-adrenergic receptors further dissociates sensory processing in the LA. These findings suggest a network mechanism that shifts sensory balance toward the faster but more primitive subcortical input

Electrochemically-induced TCNQ/Mn TCNQ 2 (H2O) 2 (TCNQ= 7, 7, 8, 8-Tetracyanoquinodimethane) solid-solid interconversion : two voltammetrically distinct processes that allow selective generation of nanofiber or nanorod network morphologies

Unlike the case with other divalent transition metal M\[TCNQ](2)(H(2)O)(2) (M = Fe, Co, Ni) analogues, the electrochemically induced solid-solid phase interconversion of TCNQ microcrystals (TCNQ = 7,7,8,8-tetracyanoquinodimethane) to Mn\[TCNQ](2)(H(2)O)(2) occurs via two voltammetrically distinct, time dependent processes that generate the coordination polymer in nanofiber or rod-like morphologies. Careful manipulation of the voltammetric scan rate, electrolysis time, Mn(2+)((aq)) concentration, and the method of electrode modification with solid TCNQ allows selective generation of either morphology. Detailed ex situ spectroscopic (IR, Raman), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) characterization clearly establish that differences in the electrochemically synthesized Mn-TCNQ material are confined to morphology. Generation of the nanofiber form is proposed to take place rapidly via formation and reduction of a Mn-stabilized anionic dimer intermediate, \[(Mn(2+))(TCNQ-TCNQ)(2)(*-)], formed as a result of radical-substrate coupling between TCNQ(*-) and neutral TCNQ, accompanied by ingress of Mn(2+) ions from the aqueous solution at the triple phase TCNQ/electrode/electrolyte boundary. In contrast, formation of the nanorod form is much slower and is postulated to arise from disproportionation of the \[(Mn(2+))(TCNQ-TCNQ)(*-)(2)] intermediate. Thus, identification of the time dependent pathways via the solid-solid state electrochemical approach allows the crystal size of the Mn\[TCNQ](2)(H(2)O)(2) material to be tuned and provides new mechanistic insights into the formation of different morphologies.

The anodized crystalline WO3 nanoporous network with enhanced electrochromic properties

We demonstrate that a three dimensional (3D) crystalline tungsten trioxide (WO3) nanoporous network, directly grown on a transparent conductive oxide (TCO) substrate, is a suitable working electrode material for high performance electrochromic devices. This nanostructure, with achievable thicknesses of up to 2 μm, is prepared at room temperature by the electrochemical anodization of a RF-sputtered tungsten film deposited on a fluoride doped tin oxide (FTO) conductive glass, under low applied anodic voltages and mild chemical dissolution conditions. For the crystalline nanoporous network with thicknesses ranging from 0.6 to 1 μm, impressive coloration efficiencies of up to 141.5 cm2 C−1 are achieved by applying a low coloration voltage of −0.25 V. It is also observed that there is no significant degradation of the electrochromic properties of the porous film after 2000 continuous coloration–bleaching cycles. The remarkable electrochromic characteristics of this crystalline and nanoporous WO3 are mainly ascribed to the combination of a large surface area, facilitating increased intercalation of protons, as well as excellent continuous and directional paths for charge transfer and proton migration in the highly crystalline material.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.