Hunting the unobservables for optimal social security a general equilibrium approach

We study the optimal size of a pay-as-you-go social security program for an economy composed of both permanent-income and hand-to-mouth consumers. While previous work on this topic is framed within a two-period partial equilibrium setup, we study this issue in a life-cycle general equilibrium model. Because this type of welfare analysis depends critically on unobservable preference parameters, we methodically consider all parameterizations of the unobservables that are both feasible and reasonable—all parameterizations that can mimic key features of macro data (feasible) while still being consistent with micro evidence and convention (reasonable). The baseline model predicts that the optimal tax rate is between 6 percent and 15 percent of wage income.

The equilibrium relations between stock index and bond index: evidence from Bursa Malaysia

This paper aims at examining the correlation structure, co-integration relationship and volatility linkage between stock and bond market indices over a period from January 1994 to June 2004. This study uses Johansen Cointegratoin test, VECM-X model and GARCH (1,1) with MDH model to examine the existence of long-term relation and volatility linkage between stock and bond market. The findings shed some light on the existence of mean-reverting pattern of correlation across different economic environments.  Findings on co-movement of stock and bond indices suggest an equilibrium relationship with short-term error correction. While evidence from volatility linkage also suggests that bond market cannot provide a meaningful explanation for conditional volatility in stock market, therefore, rejecting the mixture of distribution hypothesis.

Money laundering control and suppression of financing of terrorism : some thoughts on the impact of customer due diligence measures on financial exclusion

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between anti-money laundering (“AML”) and combating of financing of terrorism (“CFT”) customer due diligence (“CDD”) measures in the financial services industry, and exclusion from financial services.
Design/methodology/approach – An introduction to the concept of financial exclusion is provided as well as an overview of international AML/CFT CDD standards. The paper highlights a softening of national CDD measures in South Africa and the UK to lessen the impact on financial exclusion.
Findings – Countries should consider the impact that CDD requirements may have on financial exclusion when they design their AML/CFT systems.
Research limitations/implications – Multi-discilinary research is required to improve the understanding of the broader interaction between AML/CFT objectives, financial exclusion and economic development, especially in countries with a large informal economy.
Practical implications – CDD requirements may unnecessarily exacerbate financial exclusion if they are not formulated with care to reflect the reality of the particular country setting.
Originality/value – The paper offers insights into the international standards resulting to the identification of clients and the experiences in the UK and South Africa regarding the implementation of these standards on financial exclusion.

Robustness in health research : do differences in health measures, techniques, and time frame matter?

Survey-based health research is in a boom phase following an increased amount of health spending in OECD countries and the interest in ageing. A general characteristic of survey-based health research is its diversity. Different studies are based on different health questions in different datasets; they use different statistical techniques; they differ in whether they approach health from an ordinal or cardinal perspective; and they differ in whether they measure short-term or long-term effects. The question in this paper is simple: do these differences matter for the findings? We investigate the effects of life-style choices (drinking, smoking, exercise) and income on six measures of health in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) between 1992 and 2002: (1) self-assessed general health status, (2) problems with undertaking daily tasks and chores, (3) mental health indicators, (4) BMI, (5) the presence of serious long-term health conditions, and (6) mortality. We compare ordinal models with cardinal models; we compare models with fixed effects to models without fixed-effects; and we compare short-term effects to long-term effects. We find considerable variation in the impact of different determinants on our chosen health outcome measures; we find that it matters whether ordinality or cardinality is assumed; we find substantial differences between estimates that account for fixed effects versus those that do not; and we find that short-run and long-run effects differ greatly. All this implies that health is an even more complicated notion than hitherto thought, defying generalizations from one measure to the others or one methodology to another.

Mismatch between perceived and objective measures of physical activity environments

Objectives : This study investigated the correspondence between measures of physical activity facilities obtained through self-report and objective audits; and identified the socio-demographic, cognitive and behavioral characteristics of those who perceive their physical activity environment to be less supportive than objective measures indicate.
Methods : Self-report surveys were completed by 1540 women recruited from 45 neighborhoods in Melbourne, Australia. Women reported perceived access to physical activity facilities within 2 km from home, and also socio-demographic, cognitive and behavioral factors. Objective data on physical activity facilities within a 2 km pedestrian catchment area around women's homes were sourced.
Results : There was relatively poor agreement between measures of access to physical activity facilities obtained via self-report and objective assessment. Mismatch between perceived and objectively-assessed environments was more common amongst younger and older women, and women of low income, with low self-efficacy for physical activity, who were less active, who reported using fewer facilities and who had lived in the neighborhood for less than 2 years.
Conclusions : Future studies of environmental determinants of physical activity should consider incorporating objective indices of access to facilities, or accounting for the systematic bias that may result from relying on self-report perceptions as an indicator of the actual physical activity environment.

A comparison of subjective and objective measures of physical activity and fitness in identifying associations with cardiometabolic risk factors

Purpose
To compare the ability of alternative measures of physical activity and fitness to quantify associations with health outcomes.

Methods
Associations between a range of subjective and objective physical activity and fitness measures and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined using data from 1,631 Australians aged 26–36 years. Anthropometry, fitness, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose, insulin, and lipids were measured at study clinics. Participants completed the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and 7-day pedometer diaries; they also reported sedentary behavior (sitting, television viewing).

Results
In men and women, associations were strongest for fitness, with those in the highest (vs. lowest) fitness quarter having a 75% to 80% lower prevalence of two or more primary risk factors (waist circumference, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and insulin resistance). In men, a 60% to 70% reduced prevalence of two or more risk factors was observed across extreme quarters of IPAQ leisure, IPAQ vigorous, sitting duration, and pedometer measures. Similar reductions in prevalence were observed only across extreme quarters of pedometer activity and television viewing in women.

Conclusions
Associations between alternative measures and cardiometabolic risk were relatively independent, suggesting that a range of physical activity and fitness measures may be needed to most accurately quantify associations between physical activity and health.

Workload capacity measures for estimating allied health staffing requirements

Workforce planning methodologies for the allied health professions are acknowledged as rudimentary despite the increasing importance of these professions to health care across the spectrum of health services settings. The objectives of this study were to (i) identify workload capacity measures and methods for profiling allied health workforce requirements from a systematic review of the international literature; (ii) explore the use of these methods in planning workforce requirements; (iii) identify barriers to applying such methods; and (iv) recommend further action. Future approaches to workforce planning were explored through a systematic review of the literature, interviews with key stakeholders and focus group discussions with representatives from the different professional bodies and health agencies in Victoria. Results identified a range of methods used to calculate workload requirements or capacity. In order of increasing data demands and costliness to implement, workload capacity methods can be broadly classified into four groups: ratio-based, procedure-based, categories of care-based and diagnostic or casemix-based. Despite inherent limitations, the procedure-based measurement approach appears to be most widely accepted. Barriers to more rigorous workforce planning methods are discussed and future directions explored through an examination of the potential of casemix and mixed-method approaches.

The relative and absolute reliability of two balance performance measures in chronic stroke patients

Purpose. To examine the relative reliability and absolute reliability of the Berg Balance Scale (BBS) and the Postural Assessment Scale for Stroke Patients (PASS) in chronic stroke patients. Method. A total of 52 mild to moderate stroke patients, who had a stroke more than 6 months previously, participated in the study. Both balance measures were administered twice, seven days apart, to the patients. A relative reliability index (intra-class correlation coefficient, ICC2,1) was used to examine the level of agreement between test and retest. Absolute reliability indices, including the Bland and Altman method, the standard error of measurement (SEM), and the smallest real differences (SRD), were used to define the extent to which a balance score varies on test-retest measurements. Results. Test-retest agreements were high (ICC2,1: BBS = 0.98; PASS = 0.97), indicating excellent agreement from a relative perspective. The SEM of the BBS and PASS, representing the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a group of individuals, were 2.4 and 1.1, respectively. The SRD of the BBS and PASS were 6.7 and 3.2, respectively, exhibiting the smallest change threshold that indicates a real improvement for a single individual. Conclusions. The test-retest agreements of the BBS and PASS were high in mild to moderate chronic stroke patients. The thresholds of both measures to detect real change are acceptable in research and clinical settings.

Fitting fuzzy measures by linear programming. Programming library fmtools

We discuss the problem of learning fuzzy measures from empirical data. Values of the discrete Choquet integral are fitted to the data in the least absolute deviation sense. This problem is solved by linear programming techniques. We consider the cases when the data are given on the numerical and interval scales. An open source programming library which facilitates calculations involving fuzzy measures and their learning from data is presented.

Doubling fish exports or garment exports : which would benefit the Fijian economy most? Evidence from a computable general equilibrium model

The need to diversify Fiji's export base has been identified as an important avenue for reducing Fiji's vulnerabilities in international trade. This paper poses the question: Doubling fish exports or garment exports: which would be most beneficial for the Fijian economy? To achieve the goal of this paper, the computable general equilibrium model is used, this being at the forefront of research on 'impact studies'. The main finding is that when garment exports and fish exports are doubled, the benefits to the Fijian economy are greater from garment exports, suggesting that the latter has stronger linkages with the rest of the economy. On the basis of this finding, policymakers should divert resources towards sustaining the garment industry whose future is uncertain due to expiring trade agreements and unstable economic policies.

Using graphics calculators and spreadsheets in chemistry : solving equilibrium problems

Discusses tabular and graphical approaches to equilibrium calculations.