Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

A computer simulation model for single -lane roundabouts

During the past three decades, the use of roundabouts has increased throughout the world due to their greater benefits in comparison with intersections controlled by traditional means. Roundabouts are often chosen because they are widely associated with low accident rates, lower construction and operating costs, and reasonable capacities and delay. ^ In the planning and design of roundabouts, special attention should be given to the movement of pedestrians and bicycles. As a result, there are several guidelines for the design of pedestrian and bicycle treatments at roundabouts that increase the safety of both pedestrians and bicyclists at existing and proposed roundabout locations. Different design guidelines have differing criteria for handling pedestrians and bicyclists at roundabout locations. Although all of the investigated guidelines provide better safety (depending on the traffic conditions at a specific location), their effects on the performance of the roundabout have not been examined yet. ^ Existing roundabout analysis software packages provide estimates of capacity and performance characteristics. This includes characteristics such as delay, queue lengths, stop rates, effects of heavy vehicles, crash frequencies, and geometric delays, as well as fuel consumption, pollutant emissions and operating costs for roundabouts. None of these software packages, however, are capable of determining the effects of various pedestrian crossing locations, nor the effect of different bicycle treatments on the performance of roundabouts. ^ The objective of this research is to develop simulation models capable of determining the effect of various pedestrian and bicycle treatments at single-lane roundabouts. To achieve this, four models were developed. The first model simulates a single-lane roundabout without bicycle and pedestrian traffic. The second model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and mixed flow bicyclists. The third model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a combined pedestrian and bicycle crossing, while the fourth model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and a bicycle lane at the outer perimeter of the roundabout for the bicycles. Traffic data was collected at a modern roundabout in Boca Raton, Florida. ^ The results of this effort show that installing a pedestrian crossing on the roundabout approach will have a negative impact on the entry flow, while the downstream approach will benefit from the newly created gaps by pedestrians. Also, it was concluded that a bicycle lane configuration is more beneficial for all users of the roundabout instead of the mixed flow or combined crossing. Installing the pedestrian crossing at one-car length is more beneficial for pedestrians than two- and three-car lengths. Finally, it was concluded that the effect of the pedestrian crossing on the vehicle queues diminishes as the distance between the crossing and the roundabout increases. ^

Understanding the Effect of Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase Receptor Type 0 on Mammalian Sensory Development: Behavioral Studies on PTPRO Knockout Mice

Nerve development, which includes axon outgrowth and guidance, is regulated by many protein families, including receptor protein tyrosine phosphatases (RPTP's).Protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type 0 (PTPRO) is a type III RPTP that is important for axon growth and guidance, as observed in chicks and flies. In order to examine the effects ofPTPRO on mammalian development, standard behavioral tests were used to compare mice lacking the gene for PTPRO (ROKO mice) to wild-type (WT) mice. The ROKO mice showed a significant delay in reacting to a thermal noxious stimulus, hotplate analgesia, when compared to the WT mice suggesting deficient nociceptive function. In a rotarod test for proprioceptive function the ROKO mice exhibited a significant decrease in the amount of time spent on the rotating rod than did the WT mice. Additional proprioception tests were performed including the climb, step reflex, beam, and mesh walk tests. In the climb and step (place) test, the ROKO group had a significantly lower accuracy in performing the tests than did the WT mice. Thus, mice lacking the PTPRO gene showed behavioral deficiencies that reflect impairment in sensory function, specifically for nociception and proprioception.

Design and development of a one-degree-of-freedom force-reflecting manual controller prototype for teleoperation

The present research is carried out from the viewpoint of primarily space applications where human lives may be in danger if they are to work under these conditions. This work proposes to develop a one-degree-of-freedom (1-DOF) force-reflecting manual controller (FRMC) prototype for teleoperation, and address the effects of time delays commonly found in space applications where the control is accomplished via the earth-based control stations. To test the FRMC, a mobile robot (PPRK) and a slider-bar were developed and integrated to the 1-DOF FRMC. The software developed in Visual Basic is able to telecontrol any platform that uses an SV203 controller through the internet and it allows the remote system to send feedback information which may be in the form of visual or force signals. Time delay experiments were conducted on the platform and the effects of time delay on the FRMC system operation have been studied and delineated.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Análise da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI)

The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.

Estudo da Acessibilidade Organizacional aos Serviços de Saúde Bucal de um Município de Pequeno Porte do Nordeste Brasileiro

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the accessibility to oral health services in Santa Cruz (RN), focusing on the organizational aspect which is characterized by variables like delay in getting consultation, waiting lines, difficulty scheduling appointments, lack of material, among others. Material and Methods: For such purpose, questionnaires were addressed to 194 users’ houses based on census tract. Results: It has been found that 12.9% of the population has never gone to the dentist’s office, and that the service demand has not been affected by users’ individual and socioeconomic characteristics, except for gender. Data have revealed that 36.1% of users went to the dentist’s in less than a year. In addition, the youngest users are among those who seek the dentist’s office more frequently (p<0.05). 63.3% of the interviewees have reported they find some kind of difficulty when seek for dental care, and 43.2% of users have waited three weeks or more for assistance. It is also noteworthy that 7.4% of the interviewees have been finding difficulties in getting access to urgency care, and that long wait for the consultation is the most frequently cited matter. Conclusion: It could be verified that accessibility to oral health services in the municipality of Santa Cruz (RN) has been hampered by factors related to public policies organization, especially with regards to the work process.

Estudo da Acessibilidade Organizacional aos Serviços de Saúde Bucal de um Município de Pequeno Porte do Nordeste Brasileiro

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the accessibility to oral health services in Santa Cruz (RN), focusing on the organizational aspect which is characterized by variables like delay in getting consultation, waiting lines, difficulty scheduling appointments, lack of material, among others. Material and Methods: For such purpose, questionnaires were addressed to 194 users’ houses based on census tract. Results: It has been found that 12.9% of the population has never gone to the dentist’s office, and that the service demand has not been affected by users’ individual and socioeconomic characteristics, except for gender. Data have revealed that 36.1% of users went to the dentist’s in less than a year. In addition, the youngest users are among those who seek the dentist’s office more frequently (p<0.05). 63.3% of the interviewees have reported they find some kind of difficulty when seek for dental care, and 43.2% of users have waited three weeks or more for assistance. It is also noteworthy that 7.4% of the interviewees have been finding difficulties in getting access to urgency care, and that long wait for the consultation is the most frequently cited matter. Conclusion: It could be verified that accessibility to oral health services in the municipality of Santa Cruz (RN) has been hampered by factors related to public policies organization, especially with regards to the work process.

Diagnóstico e tratamento do TDA/H: investigação dos critérios utilizados por diferentes categorias profissionais da cidade de Natal-RN

TDA/H is usually considered among the most frequent psychological malfunctions in both childhood and adolescence. It covers a complex combination of neurocognitive deficits leading to developmental troubles linked to attention failure, hyperactivity and impulsivity. On the other hand, diagnosis of TDA/H is frequently a hard task, since sociocultural aspects concerning the evaluation of symptoms lead to some etiologic vagueness. Additionally, the large extent of evaluation tools, together with the diversity of therapeutic approaches referred by specialized literature justify the interest of investigating the diverse ways of diagnosing and treating TDA/H by medical doctors, psychologists and psycho-pedagogues developing professional activities in Natal-RN (Brazil) in the assistance of children and teenagers with TDA/H diagnosis hypothesis. A sample of thirty-four professionals participated in this study in a convenience-basis, and submitted to a semi-directed interview. Information from this procedure was analyzed, categorized and submitted to a multidimensional descriptive analysis (cluster analysis procedure), allowing to verify the partition of the sample in two groups: Group 1, basically composed by medical professionals, and Group 2, composed by psychologists and psycho-pedagogues. The categorized variable “Number of sessions” – average time used for arriving to a diagnosis – was the partition-variable showing the larger amount of statistical contribution for the partition, followed by the variables “Professional formation” and “Use of diagnostic tools”. Variables such “Comorbidity”, “TDA/H Definition” and Modalities of Intervention” also showed contribution to the partition obtained, even though their lesser amount of statistical contribution. Despite some similarity between these two groups, data allowed to demonstrate specific association between academic source-formation of the professional concerned and diagnosis and intervention modalities shown by these professionals when dealing with TDA/H. These data confirm relevant heterogeneity in dealing with TDA/H due to professional formation of professionals involved in diagnosis and treatment tasks.

Diagnóstico e tratamento do TDA/H: investigação dos critérios utilizados por diferentes categorias profissionais da cidade de Natal-RN

TDA/H is usually considered among the most frequent psychological malfunctions in both childhood and adolescence. It covers a complex combination of neurocognitive deficits leading to developmental troubles linked to attention failure, hyperactivity and impulsivity. On the other hand, diagnosis of TDA/H is frequently a hard task, since sociocultural aspects concerning the evaluation of symptoms lead to some etiologic vagueness. Additionally, the large extent of evaluation tools, together with the diversity of therapeutic approaches referred by specialized literature justify the interest of investigating the diverse ways of diagnosing and treating TDA/H by medical doctors, psychologists and psycho-pedagogues developing professional activities in Natal-RN (Brazil) in the assistance of children and teenagers with TDA/H diagnosis hypothesis. A sample of thirty-four professionals participated in this study in a convenience-basis, and submitted to a semi-directed interview. Information from this procedure was analyzed, categorized and submitted to a multidimensional descriptive analysis (cluster analysis procedure), allowing to verify the partition of the sample in two groups: Group 1, basically composed by medical professionals, and Group 2, composed by psychologists and psycho-pedagogues. The categorized variable “Number of sessions” – average time used for arriving to a diagnosis – was the partition-variable showing the larger amount of statistical contribution for the partition, followed by the variables “Professional formation” and “Use of diagnostic tools”. Variables such “Comorbidity”, “TDA/H Definition” and Modalities of Intervention” also showed contribution to the partition obtained, even though their lesser amount of statistical contribution. Despite some similarity between these two groups, data allowed to demonstrate specific association between academic source-formation of the professional concerned and diagnosis and intervention modalities shown by these professionals when dealing with TDA/H. These data confirm relevant heterogeneity in dealing with TDA/H due to professional formation of professionals involved in diagnosis and treatment tasks.

Monitoring of down-hole parameters for early kick detection

The sudden hydrocarbon influx from the formation into the wellbore poses a serious risk to the safety of the well. This sudden influx is termed a kick, which, if not controlled, may lead to a blowout. Therefore, early detection of the kick is crucial to minimize the possibility of a blowout occurrence. There is a high probability of delay in kick detection, apart from other issues when using a kick detection system that is exclusively based on surface monitoring. Down-hole monitoring techniques have a potential to detect a kick at its early stage. Down-hole monitoring could be particularly beneficial when the influx occurs as a result of a lost circulation scenario. In a lost circulation scenario, when the down-hole pressure becomes lower than the formation pore pressure, the formation fluid may starts to enter the wellbore. The lost volume of the drilling fluid is compensated by the formation fluid flowing into the well bore, making it difficult to identify the kick based on pit (mud tank) volume observations at the surface. This experimental study investigates the occurrence of a kick based on relative changes in the mass flow rate, pressure, density, and the conductivity of the fluid in the down-hole. Moreover, the parameters that are most sensitive to formation fluid are identified and a methodology to detect a kick without false alarms is reported. Pressure transmitter, the Coriolis flow and density meter, and the conductivity sensor are employed to observe the deteriorating well conditions in the down-hole. These observations are used to assess the occurrence of a kick and associated blowout risk. Monitoring of multiple down-hole parameters has a potential to improve the accuracy of interpretation related to kick occurrence, reduces the number of false alarms, and provides a broad picture of down-hole conditions. The down-hole monitoring techniques have a potential to reduce the kick detection period. A down-hole assembly of the laboratory scale drilling rig model and kick injection setup were designed, measuring instruments were acquired, a frame was fabricated, and the experimental set-up was assembled and tested. This set-up has the necessary features to evaluate kick events while implementing down-hole monitoring techniques. Various kick events are simulated on the drilling rig model. During the first set of experiments compressed air (which represents the formation fluid) is injected with constant pressure margin. In the second set of experiments the compressed air is injected with another pressure margin. The experiments are repeated with another pump (flow) rate as well. This thesis consists of three main parts. The first part gives the general introduction, motivation, outline of the thesis, and a brief description of influx: its causes, various leading and lagging indicators, and description of the several kick detection systems that are in practice in the industry. The second part describes the design and construction of the laboratory scale down-hole assembly of the drilling rig and kick injection setup, which is used to implement the proposed methodology for early kick detection. The third part discusses the experimental work, describes the methodology for early kick detection, and presents experimental results that show how different influx events affect the mass flow rate, pressure, conductivity, and density of the fluid in the down-hole, and the discussion of the results. The last chapter contains summary of the study and future research.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Mytilus edulis during experiments, 2011

Ocean acidification (OA) resulting from anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) has already lowered and is predicted to further lower surface ocean pH. There is a particular need to study effects of OA on organisms living in cold-water environments due to the higher solubility of CO2 at lower temperatures. Mussel larvae (Mytilus edulis) and shrimp larvae (Pandalus borealis) were kept under an ocean acidification scenario predicted for the year 2100 (pH 7.6) and compared against identical batches of organisms held under the current oceanic pH of 8.1, which acted as a control. The temperature was held at a constant 10°C in the mussel experiment and at 5°C in the shrimp experiment. There was no marked effect on fertilization success, development time, or abnormality to the D-shell stage, or on feeding of mussel larvae in the low-pH (pH 7.6) treatment. Mytilus edulis larvae were still able to develop a shell in seawater undersaturated with respect to aragonite (a mineral form of CaCO3), but the size of low-pH larvae was significantly smaller than in the control. After 2 mo of exposure the mussels were 28% smaller in the pH 7.6 treatment than in the control. The experiment with Pandalus borealis larvae ran from 1 through 35 days post hatch. Survival of shrimp larvae was not reduced after 5 wk of exposure to pH 7.6, but a significant delay in zoeal progression (development time) was observed.

THE EFFECT OF PREECLAMPSIA ON RENAL FUNCTION: CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES OF POSTPARTUM PREECLAMPTICS AND WOMEN WHO WERE DESTINED TO DEVELOP PREECLAMPSIA

Preeclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy complication that is new-onset of hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks of gestation. However, subclinical renal dysfunction may be apparent earlier in gestation prior to the clinical presentation of PE. Although the maternal syndrome of PE resolves early postpartum, women with a history of PE are at higher risk of renal dysfunction later in life. Mineral metabolism, such as phosphate balance is heavily dependent on renal function, yet, phosphate handling in women with a history of PE is largely unknown. To investigate whether women with a history of PE would exhibit changes in phosphate metabolism compared to healthy parous women, phosphate loading test was used. Women with or without a history of PE, who were 6 months to 5 years postpartum, were recruited for this study. Blood and urine samples were collected before and after the oral dosing of 500mg phosphate solution. Biochemical markers of phosphate metabolism and renal function were evaluated. In order to assess the difference in renal function alteration between first trimester women who were or were not destined to develop PE, plasma cystatin C concentration was analysed. After phosphate loading, women with a history of PE had significantly elevated serum phosphate at both 1- and 2-hour, while controls had higher urine phosphate:urine creatinine excretion ratio at 1-hour than women with a history of PE. Women with a history of PE had no changes in intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) concentration throughout the study period, whereas controls had elevated iPTH at 1-hour from baseline. In terms of renal function in the first trimester, there was no difference in plasma cystatin C concentration between women who were or were not destined to develop PE. The elevation of serum phosphate in women with a history of PE could be due to the delay in phosphate excretion. Prolong elevation of serum phosphate can have serious consequences later in life. Thus, oral phosphate challenge may serve as a useful method of early screening for altered phosphate metabolism and renal function.

THE EFFECT OF PREECLAMPSIA ON RENAL FUNCTION: CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES OF POSTPARTUM PREECLAMPTICS AND WOMEN WHO WERE DESTINED TO DEVELOP PREECLAMPSIA

Preeclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy complication that is new-onset of hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks of gestation. However, subclinical renal dysfunction may be apparent earlier in gestation prior to the clinical presentation of PE. Although the maternal syndrome of PE resolves early postpartum, women with a history of PE are at higher risk of renal dysfunction later in life. Mineral metabolism, such as phosphate balance is heavily dependent on renal function, yet, phosphate handling in women with a history of PE is largely unknown. To investigate whether women with a history of PE would exhibit changes in phosphate metabolism compared to healthy parous women, phosphate loading test was used. Women with or without a history of PE, who were 6 months to 5 years postpartum, were recruited for this study. Blood and urine samples were collected before and after the oral dosing of 500mg phosphate solution. Biochemical markers of phosphate metabolism and renal function were evaluated. In order to assess the difference in renal function alteration between first trimester women who were or were not destined to develop PE, plasma cystatin C concentration was analysed. After phosphate loading, women with a history of PE had significantly elevated serum phosphate at both 1- and 2-hour, while controls had higher urine phosphate:urine creatinine excretion ratio at 1-hour than women with a history of PE. Women with a history of PE had no changes in intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) concentration throughout the study period, whereas controls had elevated iPTH at 1-hour from baseline. In terms of renal function in the first trimester, there was no difference in plasma cystatin C concentration between women who were or were not destined to develop PE. The elevation of serum phosphate in women with a history of PE could be due to the delay in phosphate excretion. Prolong elevation of serum phosphate can have serious consequences later in life. Thus, oral phosphate challenge may serve as a useful method of early screening for altered phosphate metabolism and renal function.