Análise de portfólio: uma perspectiva bayesiana

Este trabalho tem com objetivo abordar o problema de alocação de ativos (análise de portfólio) sob uma ótica Bayesiana. Para isto foi necessário revisar toda a análise teórica do modelo clássico de média-variância e na sequencia identificar suas deficiências que comprometem sua eficácia em casos reais. Curiosamente, sua maior deficiência não esta relacionado com o próprio modelo e sim pelos seus dados de entrada em especial ao retorno esperado calculado com dados históricos. Para superar esta deficiência a abordagem Bayesiana (modelo de Black-Litterman) trata o retorno esperado como uma variável aleatória e na sequência constrói uma distribuição a priori (baseado no modelo de CAPM) e uma distribuição de verossimilhança (baseado na visão de mercado sob a ótica do investidor) para finalmente aplicar o teorema de Bayes tendo como resultado a distribuição a posteriori. O novo valor esperado do retorno, que emerge da distribuição a posteriori, é que substituirá a estimativa anterior do retorno esperado calculado com dados históricos. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o modelo Bayesiano apresenta resultados conservadores e intuitivos em relação ao modelo clássico de média-variância.

(Table 1) Organohalogen contaminants in adipose tissue of captive sledge dogs (Canis familiaris) fed with whale blubber or pork fat

Studies on the fate of organohalogen contaminants (OHCs) in wild top predator mammals in the Arctic have often been a challenge due to important knowledge deficiencies in the life history of the sampled animals. The present study investigated the influence of age, dietary and trans-generational factors on the fate of major lipophilic chlorinated and brominated OHCs in adipose tissue of a potential surrogate captive species for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), the sledge dog (Canis familiaris) in West Greenland. Adult female sledge dogs (P) and their sexually-mature (F1) and/or pre-weaning pups (F1-MLK) were divided into an exposed group (EXP) fed blubber from a Greenland minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and a control group (CON) given commercially available pork fat. Large dietary treatment-related differences in summed and individual congener/compound adipose tissue concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), chlordanes (CHLs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found between the EXP and CON groups for all the sledge dog cohorts. However, among the F1-MLK, F1 and P dogs in both of the EXP and CON groups, little or no difference existed in PBDE, HCB, CHL and PCB concentrations, suggesting higher state of equilibrium in adipose tissue concentrations from a very early stage of life. In contrast, the distribution pattern (proportions to the summed concentrations) of OHC classes, and the major congeners/ compounds constituting those classes, varied on a dietary group- and/or cohort-dependent manner. The present captive sledge dog study demonstrated the importance of the confounding effects of diet composition, mother-pup association (maternal transfer), reproductive status (nursing), and to a lesser extent age in the fate of OHCs in adipose tissue of a large top carnivore mammal.

Fiji mapped mangrove ecosystem service rankings in GeoJSON format

Incorporating the values of the services that ecosystems provide into decision making is becoming increasingly common in nature conservation and resource management policies, both locally and globally. Yet with limited funds for conservation of threatened species and ecosystems there is a desire to identify priority areas where investment efficiently conserves multiple ecosystem services. We mapped four mangrove ecosystems services (coastal protection, fisheries, biodiversity, and carbon storage) across Fiji. Using a cost-effectiveness analysis, we prioritised mangrove areas for each service, where the effectiveness was a function of the benefits provided to the local communities, and the costs were associated with restricting specific uses of mangroves. We demonstrate that, although priority mangrove areas (top 20%) for each service can be managed at relatively low opportunity costs (ranging from 4.5 to 11.3% of overall opportunity costs), prioritising for a single service yields relatively low co-benefits due to limited geographical overlap with priority areas for other services. None-the-less, prioritisation of mangrove areas provides greater overlap of benefits than if sites were selected randomly for most ecosystem services. We discuss deficiencies in the mapping of ecosystems services in data poor regions and how this may impact upon the equity of managing mangroves for particular services across the urban-rural divide in developing countries. Finally we discuss how our maps may aid decision-makers to direct funding for mangrove management from various sources to localities that best meet funding objectives, as well as how this knowledge can aid in creating a national mangrove zoning scheme.

Investment trusts and investment companies : report of the Securities and Exchange Commission : pursuant to section 30 of the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935

Issued also in the congressional series under title: Investment trusts and investment companies : letter from the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission transmitting, pursuant to law, a report .

State Levy of Taxes. Computation and Apportionment

Title Varies: 1898-1905, Statement of the Computation and Apportionment of the State Levy of Taxes; ?-1897, Statement of the Expenses To Which the State of Oregon Will Be Subjected for the Year 18?-1897 and of the Items of Deficiencies More

Seismic Evaluation and Retrofit of Concentrically Braced Frames

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06