A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

Improved design rules for hollow flange sections subject to lateral distortional buckling

The LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new hollow flange section with a unique geometry consisting of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges and a relatively slender web. It is subjected to lateral distortional buckling when used as flexural members, which reduces its member moment capacity. An investigation into the flexural behaviour of LSBs using experiments and numerical analyses led to the development of new design rules for LSBs subject to lateral distortional buckling. However, the comparison of moment capacity results with the new design rules showed that they were conservative for some LSB sections while slightly unconservative for others due to the effects of section geometry. It is also unknown whether these design rules are applicable to other hollow flange sections such as hollow flange beams (HFB). This paper presents the details of a study into the lateral distortional buckling behaviour of hollow flange sections such as LSBs, HFBs and their variations. A geometrical parameter defined as the ratio of flange torsional rigidity to the major axis flexural rigidity of the web (GJf/EIxweb) was found to be a critical parameter in evaluating the lateral distortional buckling behaviour and moment capacities of hollow flange sections. New design rules were therefore developed by using a member slenderness parameter modified by K, where K is a function of GJf/EIxweb. The new design rules based on the modified slenderness parameter were found to be accurate in calculating the moment capacities of not only LSBs and HFBs, but also other types of hollow flange sections.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Statistical modelling of wind effects on signal propagation for wireless sensor networks

A wireless sensor network system must have the ability to tolerate harsh environmental conditions and reduce communication failures. In a typical outdoor situation, the presence of wind can introduce movement in the foliage. This motion of vegetation structures causes large and rapid signal fading in the communication link and must be accounted for when deploying a wireless sensor network system in such conditions. This thesis examines the fading characteristics experienced by wireless sensor nodes due to the effect of varying wind speed in a foliage obstructed transmission path. It presents extensive measurement campaigns at two locations with the approach of a typical wireless sensor networks configuration. The significance of this research lies in the varied approaches of its different experiments, involving a variety of vegetation types, scenarios and the use of different polarisations (vertical and horizontal). Non–line of sight (NLoS) scenario conditions investigate the wind effect based on different vegetation densities including that of the Acacia tree, Dogbane tree and tall grass. Whereas the line of sight (LoS) scenario investigates the effect of wind when the grass is swaying and affecting the ground-reflected component of the signal. Vegetation type and scenarios are envisaged to simulate real life working conditions of wireless sensor network systems in outdoor foliated environments. The results from the measurements are presented in statistical models involving first and second order statistics. We found that in most of the cases, the fading amplitude could be approximated by both Lognormal and Nakagami distribution, whose m parameter was found to depend on received power fluctuations. Lognormal distribution is known as the result of slow fading characteristics due to shadowing. This study concludes that fading caused by variations in received power due to wind in wireless sensor networks systems are found to be insignificant. There is no notable difference in Nakagami m values for low, calm, and windy wind speed categories. It is also shown in the second order analysis, the duration of the deep fades are very short, 0.1 second for 10 dB attenuation below RMS level for vertical polarization and 0.01 second for 10 dB attenuation below RMS level for horizontal polarization. Another key finding is that the received signal strength for horizontal polarisation demonstrates more than 3 dB better performances than the vertical polarisation for LoS and near LoS (thin vegetation) conditions and up to 10 dB better for denser vegetation conditions.

Early local functional changes in the human diabetic retina : a global flash multifocal electroretinogram study

Purpose: To investigate early functional changes of local retinal defects in type II diabetic patients using the global flash multifocal electroretinogram (MOFO mfERG). Methods: Thirty-eight diabetic patients and 14 age-matched controls were recruited. Nine of the diabetics were free from diabetic retinopathy (DR), while the remainder had mild to moderate non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy. The MOFO mfERG was performed at high (98%) and low (46%) contrast levels. MfERG responses were grouped into 35 regions for comparison with DR classification at those locations. Z-scores of the regional mfERG responses were compared across different types of DR defects. Results: The mfERG waveform consisted of the direct component (DC) and the induced component (IC). Local reduction in DC and IC amplitudes were found in diabetic patients with and without DR. With increasing severity of retinopathy, there was a further deterioration in amplitude of both components. Under MOFO mfERG paradigm, amplitude was a useful screening parameter. Conclusion: The MOFO mfERG can help in detecting early functional anomalies before the appearance of visible signs, and may assist in monitoring further functional deterioration in diabetic patients.

Design of fixed order robust power oscillation damper for TCSC

This paper illustrates robust fixed order power oscillation damper design for mitigating power systems oscillations. From implementation and tuning point of view, such low and fixed structure is common practice for most practical applications, including power systems. However, conventional techniques of optimal and robust control theory cannot handle the constraint of fixed-order as it is, in general, impossible to ensure a target closed-loop transfer function by a controller of any given order. This paper deals with the problem of synthesizing or designing a feedback controller of dynamic order for a linear time-invariant plant for a fixed plant, as well as for an uncertain family of plants containing parameter uncertainty, so that stability, robust stability and robust performance are attained. The desired closed-loop specifications considered here are given in terms of a target performance vector representing a desired closed-loop design. The performance of the designed controller is validated through non-linear simulations for a range of contingencies.

Evaluation of image resolution and super-resolution on face recognition performance

While researchers strive to improve automatic face recognition performance, the relationship between image resolution and face recognition performance has not received much attention. This relationship is examined systematically and a framework is developed such that results from super-resolution techniques can be compared. Three super-resolution techniques are compared with the Eigenface and Elastic Bunch Graph Matching face recognition engines. Parameter ranges over which these techniques provide better recognition performance than interpolated images is determined.

Double diffusive magneto-convection fluid flow in a strong cross magnetic field with uniform surface heat and mass flux

In this study, magnetohydrodynamic natural convection boundary layer flow of an electrically conducting and viscous incompressible fluid along a heated vertical flat plate with uniform heat and mass flux in the presence of strong cross magnetic field has been investigated. For smooth integrations the boundary layer equations are transformed in to a convenient dimensionless form by using stream function formulation as well as the free variable formulation. The nonsimilar parabolic partial differential equations are integrated numerically for Pr ≪1 that is appropriate for liquid metals against the local Hartmann parameter ξ . Further, asymptotic solutions are obtained near the leading edge using regular perturbation method for smaller values of ξ . Solutions for values of ξ ≫ 1 are also obtained by employing the matched asymptotic technique. The results obtained for small, large and all ξ regimes are examined in terms of shear stress, τw, rate of heat transfer, qw, and rate of mass transfer, mw, for important physical parameter. Attention has been given to the influence of Schmidt number, Sc, buoyancy ratio parameter, N and local Hartmann parameter, ξ on velocity, temperature and concentration distributions and noted that velocity and temperature of the fluid achieve their asymptotic profiles for Sc ≥ 10:0.

Semantic service discovery in the service ecosystem

Electronic services are a leitmotif in ‘hot’ topics like Software as a Service, Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), Service oriented Computing, Cloud Computing, application markets and smart devices. We propose to consider these in what has been termed the Service Ecosystem (SES). The SES encompasses all levels of electronic services and their interaction, with human consumption and initiation on its periphery in much the same way the ‘Web’ describes a plethora of technologies that eventuate to connect information and expose it to humans. Presently, the SES is heterogeneous, fragmented and confined to semi-closed systems. A key issue hampering the emergence of an integrated SES is Service Discovery (SD). A SES will be dynamic with areas of structured and unstructured information within which service providers and ‘lay’ human consumers interact; until now the two are disjointed, e.g., SOA-enabled organisations, industries and domains are choreographed by domain experts or ‘hard-wired’ to smart device application markets and web applications. In a SES, services are accessible, comparable and exchangeable to human consumers closing the gap to the providers. This requires a new SD with which humans can discover services transparently and effectively without special knowledge or training. We propose two modes of discovery, directed search following an agenda and explorative search, which speculatively expands knowledge of an area of interest by means of categories. Inspired by conceptual space theory from cognitive science, we propose to implement the modes of discovery using concepts to map a lay consumer’s service need to terminologically sophisticated descriptions of services. To this end, we reframe SD as an information retrieval task on the information attached to services, such as, descriptions, reviews, documentation and web sites - the Service Information Shadow. The Semantic Space model transforms the shadow's unstructured semantic information into a geometric, concept-like representation. We introduce an improved and extended Semantic Space including categorization calling it the Semantic Service Discovery model. We evaluate our model with a highly relevant, service related corpus simulating a Service Information Shadow including manually constructed complex service agendas, as well as manual groupings of services. We compare our model against state-of-the-art information retrieval systems and clustering algorithms. By means of an extensive series of empirical evaluations, we establish optimal parameter settings for the semantic space model. The evaluations demonstrate the model’s effectiveness for SD in terms of retrieval precision over state-of-the-art information retrieval models (directed search) and the meaningful, automatic categorization of service related information, which shows potential to form the basis of a useful, cognitively motivated map of the SES for exploratory search.

Mixed convection flow of micropolar fluid in an open ended arc-shape cavity

Numerical simulations for mixed convection of micropolar fluid in an open ended arc-shape cavity have been carried out in this study. Computation is performed using the Alternate Direct Implicit (ADI) method together with the Successive Over Relaxation (SOR) technique for the solution of governing partial differential equations. The flow phenomenon is examined for a range of values of Rayleigh number, 102 ≤ Ra ≤ 106, Prandtl number, 7 ≤ Pr ≤ 50, and Reynolds number, 10 ≤ Re ≤ 100. The study is mainly focused on how the micropolar fluid parameters affect the fluid properties in the flow domain. It was found that despite the reduction of flow in the core region, the heat transfer rate increases, whereas the skin friction and microrotation decrease with the increase in the vortex viscosity parameter, Δ.

Detecting anomalous user activity

Systems, methods and articles for determining anomalous user activity are disclosed. Data representing a transaction activity corresponding to a plurality of user transactions can be received and user transactions can be grouped according to types of user transactions. The transaction activity can be determined to be anomalous in relation to the grouped user transactions based on a predetermined parameter.

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Visual route recognition with a handful of bits

In this paper we use a sequence-based visual localization algorithm to reveal surprising answers to the question, how much visual information is actually needed to conduct effective navigation? The algorithm actively searches for the best local image matches within a sliding window of short route segments or 'sub-routes', and matches sub-routes by searching for coherent sequences of local image matches. In contract to many existing techniques, the technique requires no pre-training or camera parameter calibration. We compare the algorithm's performance to the state-of-the-art FAB-MAP 2.0 algorithm on a 70 km benchmark dataset. Performance matches or exceeds the state of the art feature-based localization technique using images as small as 4 pixels, fields of view reduced by a factor of 250, and pixel bit depths reduced to 2 bits. We present further results demonstrating the system localizing in an office environment with near 100% precision using two 7 bit Lego light sensors, as well as using 16 and 32 pixel images from a motorbike race and a mountain rally car stage. By demonstrating how little image information is required to achieve localization along a route, we hope to stimulate future 'low fidelity' approaches to visual navigation that complement probabilistic feature-based techniques.

HMM triangle relative entropy concepts in sequential change detection applied to vision-based dim target manoeuvre detection

The quick detection of abrupt (unknown) parameter changes in an observed hidden Markov model (HMM) is important in several applications. Motivated by the recent application of relative entropy concepts in the robust sequential change detection problem (and the related model selection problem), this paper proposes a sequential unknown change detection algorithm based on a relative entropy based HMM parameter estimator. Our proposed approach is able to overcome the lack of knowledge of post-change parameters, and is illustrated to have similar performance to the popular cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm (which requires knowledge of the post-change parameter values) when examined, on both simulated and real data, in a vision-based aircraft manoeuvre detection problem.