Robust approaches to forecasting

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, impulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods are likely to perform well. The robust methods are applied to forecasting US GDP using autoregressive models, and also to autoregressive models with factors extracted from a large dataset of macroeconomic variables. We consider forecasting performance over the Great Recession, and over an earlier more quiescent period.

The lifecycle of the North Atlantic storm track

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability, with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle and north. Here we examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. We investigate the changes in the storm track characteristics for the three jet locations, and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. Our results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatio-temporal lifecycle.

In vitro evaluation of the fermentation properties and potential probiotic activity of Lactobacillus plantarum C4 in batch culture systems

Lactobacillus plantarum C4 has been tested in in vitro pH-controlled anaerobic faecal batch cultures as compared to Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG to determine changes caused to the composition of faecal bacteria. Effects upon major groups of the microbiota and levels of short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) were assessed over 24 h. Concomitantly, hydrophobic character and ability of both bacterial cells to adhere in vitro to Caco-2 cells were investigated. Quantitative analysis of bacterial populations revealed that there was a significant increase in Lactobacillus/Enterococcus numbers in vessels with probiotic supplemented with fructooligosaccharides (FOS), compared to the negative control. L. plantarum C4 showed to have more hydrophilic behaviour and fulfilled better adhesive properties, compared to L. rhamnosus GG. Thus, L. plantarum C4 can modulate the intestinal microbiota in vitro, promoting changes in some numerically and metabolically relevant microbial populations and shifts in the production of SCFA.

The impact of cognitive control on children's goal monitoring in a time-based prospective memory task

The present study investigated whether developmental changes in cognitive control may underlie improvements of time-based prospective memory. Five-, 7-, 9-, and 11-year-olds (N = 166) completed a driving simulation task (ongoing task) in which they had to refuel their vehicle at specific points in time (PM task). The availability of cognitive control resources was experimentally manipulated by imposing a secondary task that required divided attention. Children completed the driving simulation task both in a full attention condition and a divided attention condition where they had to carry out a secondary task. Results revealed that older children performed better than younger children on the ongoing task and PM task. Children performed worse on the ongoing and PM tasks in the divided attention condition compared to the full attention condition. With respect to time monitoring in the final interval prior to the PM target, divided attention interacted with age such that older children’s time monitoring was more negatively affected by the secondary task compared to younger children. Results are discussed in terms of developmental shifts from reactive to proactive monitoring strategies.

Predicting solar disturbance effects on navigation systems

A variety of operational systems are vulnerable to disruption by solar disturbances brought to the Earth by the solar wind. Of particular importance to navigation systems are energetic charged particles which can generate temporary malfunctions and permanent damage in satellites. Modern spacecraft technology may prove to be particularly at risk during the next maximum of the solar cycle. In addition, the associated ionospheric disturbances cause phase shifts of transionospheric and ionosphere-reflected signals, giving positioning errors and loss of signal for GPS and Loran-C positioning systems and for over-the-horizon radars. We now have sufficient understanding of the solar wind, and how it interacts with the Earth's magnetic field, to predict statistically the likely effects on operational systems over the next solar cycle. We also have a number of advanced ways of detecting and tracking these disturbances through space but we cannot, as yet, provide accurate forecasts of individual disturbances that could be used to protect satellites and to correct errors. In addition, we have recently discovered long-term changes in the Sun, which mean that the number and severity of the disturbances to operational systems are increasing.

A simple model of the effects of the mid-latitude total ion trough in the bottomsideFlayer on HF radiowave propagation

Observations of the amplitudes and Doppler shifts of received HF radio waves are compared with model predictions made using a two-dimensional ray-tracing program. The signals are propagated over a sub-auroral path, which is shown to lie along the latitudes of the mid-latitude trough at times of low geomagnetic activity. Generalizing the predictions to include a simple model of the trough in the density and height of the F2 peak enables the explanation of the anomalous observed diurnal variations. The behavior of received amplitude, Doppler shift, and signal-to-noise ratio as a function of the Kp index value, the time of day, and the season (in 17 months of continuous recording) is found to agree closely with that predicted using the statistical position of the trough as deduced from 8 years of Alouette satellite soundings. The variation in the times of the observation of large signal amplitudes with the Kp value and the complete absence of such amplitudes when it exceeds 2.75 are two features that implicate the trough in these effects.

Oblique h.f. radiowave propagation in the main trough region of the ionosphere

The propagation of 7.335 MHz, c.w. signals over a 5212 km sub-auroral, west-east path is studied. Measurements and semi-empirical predictions are made of the amplitude distributions and Doppler shifts of the received signals. The observed amplitude distribution is fitted with one produced by a numerical fading model, yielding the power losses suffered by the signals during propagation via the predominating modes. The signals are found to suffer exceptionally low losses at certain local times under geomagnetically quiet conditions. The mid-latitude trough in the F2 peak ionization density is predicted by a statistical model to be at the latitudes of this path at these times and at low Kp values. A sharp cut-off in low-power losses at a mean Kp of 2.75 strongly implicates the trough in the propagation of these signals. The Doppler shifts observed at these times cannot be explained by a simple ray-tracing model. It is shown however, that a simple extension of this model to allow for the trough can reproduce the form of the observed diurnal variation.

The bottomside mid-latitude ionospheric trough

The measured power losses and Doppler shifts of h.f. radio waves propagated over a long, west-east, sub-auroral path are found to exhibit features which cannot be explained by simple predictions and models. Both theory and the limited available data indicate that a bottomside F2-layer depletion should be present below the topside mid-latitude trough. Introducing this into the models (using the mean statistical positions of the trough deduced from Alouette I and II soundings) is shown to explain many of these features. From the Doppler shifts and a simple ray-tracing model the height of the depleted F2-peak inside the trough is deduced to be greater than its value outside the trough by an amount of the order of only 30–80 km.

Spectral design of temperature-invariant narrow bandpass filters for the mid-infrared

The ability of narrow bandpass filters to discriminate wavelengths between closely-separated gas absorption lines is crucial in many areas of infrared spectroscopy. As improvements to the sensitivity of infrared detectors enables operation in uncontrolled high-temperature environments, this imposes demands on the explicit bandpass design to provide temperature-invariant behavior. The unique negative temperature coefficient (dn/dT<0) of Lead-based (Pb) salts, in combination with dielectric materials enable bandpass filters with exclusive immunity to shifts in wavelength with temperature. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the interdependence between multilayer bandpass design and optical materials together with a review on invariance at elevated temperatures.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Discovery of 157W and 161Os

The nuclides 157W and 161Os have been discovered in reactions of 58Ni ion beams with a 106Cd target. The 161Os α -decay energy and half-life were 6890±12 keV and 640±60 μs. The daughter 157W nuclei β -decayed with a half-life of 275±40 ms, populating both low-lying α-decaying states in 157Ta, which is consistent with a 7/2− ground state in 157W. Fine structure observed in the α decay of 161Os places the lowest excited state in 157W with Iπ=9/2− at 318±30 keV. The branching ratio of View the MathML source indicates that 161Os also has a 7/2− ground state. Shell-model calculations analysing the effects of monopole shifts and a tensor force on the relative energies of 2f7/2 and 1h9/2 neutron states in N=83 isotones are presented.

Olfactory selection of Plantago lanceolata by snails declines with seedling age

Background and Aims Despite recent recognition that (1) plant–herbivore interactions during the establishment phase, (2) ontogenetic shifts in resource allocation and (3) herbivore response to plant volatile release are each pivotal to a comprehensive understanding of plant defence, no study has examined how herbivore olfactory response varies during seedling ontogeny. Methods Using a Y-tube olfactometer we examined snail (Helix aspersa) olfactory response to pellets derived from macerated Plantago lanceolata plants harvested at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 weeks of age to test the hypothesis that olfactory selection of plants by a generalist herbivore varies with plant age. Plant volatiles were collected for 10 min using solid-phase microextraction technique on 1- and 8-week-old P. lanceolata pellets and analysed by gas chromatography coupled with a mass spectrometer. Key Results Selection of P. lanceolata was strongly negatively correlated with increasing age; pellets derived from 1-week-old seedlings were three times more likely to be selected as those from 8-week-old plants. Comparison of plant selection experiments with plant volatile profiles from GC/MS suggests that patterns of olfactory selection may be linked to ontogenetic shifts in concentrations of green leaf volatiles and ethanol (and its hydrolysis derivatives). Conclusions Although confirmatory of predictions made by contemporary plant defence theory, this is the first study to elucidate a link between seedling age and olfactory selection by herbivores. As a consequence, this study provides a new perspective on the ontogenetic expression of seedling defence, and the role of seedling herbivores, particularly terrestrial molluscs, as selective agents in temperate plant communities.

Corruption and individual ethics: insights from a public procurement auction

This article proposes an auction model where two firms compete for obtaining the license for a public project and an auctioneer acting as a public official representing the political power, decides the winner of the contest. Players as firms face a social dilemma in the sense that the higher is the bribe offered, the higher would be the willingness of a pure monetary maximizer public official to give her the license. However, it implies inducing a cost of reducing all players’ payoffs as far as our model includes an endogenous externality, which depends on bribe. All players’ payoffs decrease with the bribe (and increase with higher quality). We find that the presence of bribe aversion in either the officials’ or the firms’ utility function shifts equilibrium towards more pro-social behavior. When the quality and bribe-bid strategy space is discrete, multiple equilibria emerge including more pro-social bids than would be predicted under a continuous strategy space.

Multiresolution semantic activity characterisation and abnormality discovery in videos

This paper addresses the issue of activity understanding from video and its semantics-rich description. A novel approach is presented where activities are characterised and analysed at different resolutions. Semantic information is delivered according to the resolution at which the activity is observed. Furthermore, the multiresolution activity characterisation is exploited to detect abnormal activity. To achieve these system capabilities, the focus is given on context modelling by employing a soft computing-based algorithm which automatically enables the determination of the main activity zones of the observed scene by taking as input the trajectories of detected mobiles. Such areas are learnt at different resolutions (or granularities). In a second stage, learned zones are employed to extract people activities by relating mobile trajectories to the learned zones. In this way, the activity of a person can be summarised as the series of zones that the person has visited. Employing the inherent soft relation properties, the reported activities can be labelled with meaningful semantics. Depending on the granularity at which activity zones and mobile trajectories are considered, the semantic meaning of the activity shifts from broad interpretation to detailed description.Activity information at different resolutions is also employed to perform abnormal activity detection.

The slowly evolving background state of the atmosphere

The theory of wave–mean flow interaction requires a partition of the atmospheric flow into a notional background state and perturbations to it. Here, a background state, known as the Modified Lagrangian Mean (MLM), is defined as the zonally symmetric state obtained by requiring that every potential vorticity (PV) contour lying within an isentropic layer encloses the same mass and circulation as in the full flow. For adiabatic and frictionless flow, these two integral properties are time-invariant and the MLM state is a steady solution of the primitive equations. The time dependence in the adiabatic flow is put into the perturbations, which can be described by a wave-activity conservation law that is exact even at large amplitude. Furthermore, the effects of non-conservative processes on wave activity can be calculated from the conservation law. A new method to calculate the MLM state is introduced, where the position of the lower boundary is obtained as part of the solution. The results are illustrated using Northern Hemisphere ERA-Interim data. The MLM state evolves slowly, implying that the net non-conservative effects are weak. Although ‘adiabatic eddy fluxes’ cannot affect the MLM state, the effects of Rossby-wave breaking, PV filamentation and subsequent dissipation result in sharpening of the polar vortex edge and meridional shifts in the MLM zonal flow, both at tropopause level and on the winter stratospheric vortex. The rate of downward migration of wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings is shown to be given by the vertical scale associated with polar vortex tilt divided by the time-scale for wave dissipation estimated from the wave-activity conservation law. Aspects of troposphere–stratosphere interaction are discussed. The new framework is suitable to examine the climate and its interactions with disturbances, such as midlatitude storm tracks, and makes a clean partition between adiabatic and non-conservative processes.