Bayesian Analysis of a Superimposed Renewal Process

Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.

Effect of process variables on die-billet temperature history in a slow speed hot coining type process

A computer code is developed as a part of an ongoing project on computer aided process modelling of forging operation, to simulate heat transfer in a die-billet system. The code developed on a stage-by-stage technique is based on an Alternating Direction Implicit scheme. The experimentally validated code is used to study the effect of process specifics such as preheat die temperature, machine ascent time, rate of deformation, and dwell time on the thermal characteristics in a batch coining operation where deformation is restricted to surface level only.

Infinite dimensional slow modulations in a well known delayed model for cutting tool vibrations

We apply the method of multiple scales (MMS) to a well-known model of regenerative cutting vibrations in the large delay regime. By ``large'' we mean the delay is much larger than the timescale of typical cutting tool oscillations. The MMS up to second order, recently developed for such systems, is applied here to study tool dynamics in the large delay regime. The second order analysis is found to be much more accurate than the first order analysis. Numerical integration of the MMS slow flow is much faster than for the original equation, yet shows excellent accuracy in that plotted solutions of moderate amplitudes are visually near-indistinguishable. The advantages of the present analysis are that infinite dimensional dynamics is retained in the slow flow, while the more usual center manifold reduction gives a planar phase space; lower-dimensional dynamical features, such as Hopf bifurcations and families of periodic solutions, are also captured by the MMS; the strong sensitivity of the slow modulation dynamics to small changes in parameter values, peculiar to such systems with large delays, is seen clearly; and though certain parameters are treated as small (or, reciprocally, large), the analysis is not restricted to infinitesimal distances from the Hopf bifurcation.

Semi-Supervised Classification Using Sparse Gaussian Process Regression

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are promising Bayesian methods for classification and regression problems. They have also been used for semi-supervised learning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for solving semi-supervised binary classification problem using sparse GP regression (GPR) models. It is closely related to semi-supervised learning based on support vector regression (SVR) and maximum margin clustering. The proposed algorithm is simple and easy to implement. It gives a sparse solution directly unlike the SVR based algorithm. Also, the hyperparameters are estimated easily without resorting to expensive cross-validation technique. Use of sparse GPR model helps in making the proposed algorithm scalable. Preliminary results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the new algorithm.

Role of barriers to conformational changes in ketones undergoing the Norrish type II process

The Norrish type II process is examined in three ketones containing primary, secondary and tertiary C---H bonds in the γ position relative to the carbonyl groups; the MINDO/3 semiempirical self-consistent field (SCF) molecular orbital (MO) method was used with complete geometry optimization in the unrestricted Hartree—Fock frame for the open-shell species. Results show that barriers to conformational change in ketones play an important role in the triplet reaction.

Production process of Scots pine.

The accompanying collective research report is the result of the research project in 1986­90 between The Finnish Academy and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences. The project was organized around common field work in Finland and in the former Soviet Union and theoretical analyses of tree growth determining processes. Based on theoretical analyses, dynamic stand growth models were made and their parameters were determined utilizing the field results. Annual cycle affects the tree growth. Our theoretical approach was based on adaptation to local climate conditions from Lapland to South Russia. The initiation of growth was described as a simple low and high temperature accumulation driven model. Linking the theoretical model with long term temperature data allowed us to analyze what type of temperature response produced favorable outcome in different climates. Initiation of growth consumes the carbohydrate reserves in plants. We measured the dynamics of insoluble and soluble sugars in the very northern and Karelian conditions. Clear cyclical pattern was observed but the differences between locations were surprisingly small. Analysis of field measurements of CO2 exchange showed that irradiance is the dominating factor causing variation in photosynthetic rate in natural conditions during summer. The effect of other factors is so small that they can be omitted without any considerable loss of accuracy. A special experiment carried out in Hyytiälä showed that the needle living space, defined as the ratio between the shoot cylindric volume and needle surface area, correlates with the shoot photosynthesis. The penetration of irradiance into Scots pine canopy is a complicated phenomenon because of the movement of the sun on the sky and the complicated structure of branches and needles. A moderately simple but balanced forest radiation regime submodel was constructed. It consists of the tree crown and forest structure, the gap probability calculation and the consideration of spatial and temporal variation of radiation inside the forest. The common field excursions in different geographical regions resulted in a lot of experimental data of regularities of woody structures. The water transport seems to be a good common factor to analyse these properties of tree structure. There are evident regressions between cross-sectional areas measured at different locations along the water pathway from fine roots to needles. The observed regressions have clear geographical trends. For example, the same cross-sectional area can support three times higher needle mass in South Russia than in Lapland. Geographical trends can also be seen in shoot and needle structure. Analysis of data published by several Russian authors show, that one ton of needles transpire 42 ton of water a year. This annual amount of transpiration seems to be independent of geographical location, year and site conditions. The produced theoretical and experimental material is utilised in the development of stand growth model that describes the growth and development of Scots pine stands in Finland and the former Soviet Union. The core of the model is carbon and nutrient balances. This means that carbon obtained in photosynthesis is consumed for growth and maintenance and nutrients are taken according to the metabolic needs. The annual photosynthetic production by trees in the stand is determined as a function of irradiance and shading during the active period. The utilisation of the annual photosynthetic production to the growth of different components of trees is based on structural regularities. Since the fundamental metabolic processes are the same in all locations the same growth model structure can be applied in the large range of Scots pine. The annual photosynthetic production and structural regularities determining the allocation of resources have geographical features. The common field measurements enable the application of the model to the analysis of growth and development of stands growing on the five locations of experiments. The model enables the analysis of geographical differences in the growth of Scots pine. For example, the annual photosynthetic production of a 100-year-old stand at Voronez is 3.5 times higher than in Lapland. The share consumed to needle growth (30 %) and to growth of branches (5 %) seems to be the same in all locations. In contrast, the share of fine roots is decreasing when moving from north to south. It is 20 % in Lapland, 15 % in Hyytiälä Central Finland and Kentjärvi Karelia and 15 % in Voronez South Russia. The stem masses (115­113 ton/ha) are rather similar in Hyytiälä, Kentjärvi and Voronez, but rather low (50 ton/ha) in Lapland. In Voronez the height of the trees reach 29 m being in Hyytiälä and Kentjärvi 22 m and in Lapland only 14 m. The present approach enables utilization of structural and functional knowledge, gained in places of intensive research, in the analysis of growth and development of any stand. This opens new possibilities for growth research and also for applications in forestry practice.

The Mechanism Of The Hydrogen Abstraction Process By Photo-Excited Ketones

Qualitative potential energy surfaces for hydrogen abstraction from alkanes containing primary, secondary and tertiary C-H bonds by a photo-excited ketone have been reported, The results suggest that the activation barriers for these processes decrease in the order primary > secondary > tertiary in agreement with the observed trend in the rate constants. The analysis of the electronic structure of the transition-state reveal that electron-transfer from hydrocarbon to ketone and formation of a new bond are almost synchronous in the hydrogen transfer process. The tunneling of hydrogen is not important in the normal temperature region even though the barriers are small.

A New Liquid Level Sensor for Process-Control Applications

Many process-control systems are air-operated. In such an environment, it would be desirable and economical to use pneumatic sensors. Bubble-back pressure sensors perform quite satisfactorily, but in case of viscous inflammable and slurry-like liquids with a tendency to froth, this level sensor is inadequate. The method suggested in this paper utilizes a pneumatic capacitor, one boundary of which is formed by the liquid level, to modulate a fluid amplifier feedback oscillator. The absence of moving parts and economy obtained makes this method attractive for process-control applications. The system has been mathematically modeled and simulated on an IBM 360/44 digital computer. Experimental values compare fairly well with the theoretical results. For the range tested, the sensor is found to have a linear frequency variation with the liquid level Extended running in the laboratory shows that the system is very reliable. This system has been found insensitive to temperature variations of up to 15ðC.

Mechanism of gel-to-crystallite conversion process in the synthesis of nanocrystalline multinary oxides

Description of gel-to-crystallite conversion process is made towards the synthesis of nanocrystalline titanates and aluminates. Thermodynamic and kinetic factors governing the conversion of a gel to meta-stable and stable nanocrystalline products(s) are discussed. Correlations between these factors and the preparative conditions employed for the syntheses of titanates and aluminates are arrived at.

Chinese immigrants to Finland: A qualitative study of housing, employment, access to health care and child care as sociological dimensions in their settlement process

The Master’s thesis is qualitative research based on interviews of 15 Chinese immigrants to Finland in order to provide a sociological perspective of the migration experience through the eyes of Chinese immigrants in the Finnish social welfare context. This research is mainly focused upon four crucial aspects of life in the settlement process: housing, employment, access to health care and child care. Inspired by Allardt’s theoretical framework ‘Having, Loving and Being’, social relationships and individual satisfaction are examined in the case of Chinese interviewees dealing with the four life aspects. Finland was not perceived as an attractive migration destination for most Chinese interviewees in the beginning. However, with longer residence in Finland, the Finnish social welfare system gradually became a crucial appealing factor in their permanent settlement in Finland. And meanwhile, social responsibility of attending their old parents in China, strong feelings of being isolated in Finland, and insufficient integration into the Finnish society were influential factors for their decision of returning to China. Social relationships with personal friends, migration brokers, schools, employers and family relatives had great influences in the four life aspects of Chinese immigrants in Finland. The social relationship with the Finnish social welfare sector is supportive to Chinese immigrants, but Chinese immigrants do not heavily rely on Finnish social protection. The housing conditions were greatly improved over time while the upward mobility in the Finnish labour market was not significant among Chinese immigrants. All Chinese immigrants were satisfied with their current housing by the time I interviewed them while most of them had subjective feelings of being alienated in the Finnish labour market, which seriously prevented them from integrating into the Finnish society. In general, Chinese immigrants were satisfied with the low cost of accessing the Finnish public health care services and affordable Finnish child day care services and financial subsidies for children from the Finnish social welfare sector. This research also suggests that employment is the central basis in well-being. Support from the Finnish social welfare sector can improve the satisfaction levels among immigrants, especially when it mitigates the effects of low-paid employment. As well, my empirical study of Chinese immigrants in Finland shows that Having (needs for materials), Loving (needs for social relations) and Being (needs for social integration) are all involved in the four concrete aspects (housing, employment, access to health care and child care).

Compensator for constant relative stability in process control systems

Process control systems are designed for a closed-loop peak magnitude of 2dB, which corresponds to a damping coefficient () of 0.5 approximately. With this specified constraint, the designer should choose and/or design the loop components to maintain a constant relative stability. However, the manipulative variable in almost all chemical processes will be the flow rate of a process stream. Since the gains and the time constants of the process will be functions of the manipulative variable, a constant relative stability cannot be maintained. Up to now, this problem has been overcome either by selecting proper control valve flow characteristics or by gain scheduling of controller parameters. Nevertheless, if a wrong control valve selection is made then one has to account for huge loss in controllability or eventually it may lead to an unstable control system. To overcome these problems, a compensator device that can bring back the relative stability of the control system was proposed. This compensator is similar to a dynamic nonlinear controller that has both online and offline information on several factors related to the control system. The design and analysis of the proposed compensator is discussed in this article. Finally, the performance of the compensator is validated by applying it to a two-tank blending process. It has been observed that by using a compensator in the process control system, the relative stability could be brought back to a great extent despite the effects of changes in manipulative flow rate.

Harvesting undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from first thinnings for integrated production of kraft pulp and energy

The present study evaluates the feasibility of undelimbed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) for integrated production of pulp and energy in a kraft pulp mill from the technical, economic and environmental points of view, focusing on the potential of bundle harvesting. The feasibility of tree sections for pulp production was tested by conducting an industrial wood-handling experiment, laboratory cooking and bleaching trials, using conventional small-diameter Scots pine pulpwood as a reference. These trials showed that undelimbed Scots pine sections can be processed in favourable conditions as a blend with conventional small-diameter pulpwood without reducing the pulp quality. However, fibre losses at various phases of the process may increase when using undelimbed material. In the economic evaluation, both pulp production and wood procurement costs were considered, using the relative wood paying capability of a kraft pulp mill as a determinant. The calculations were made for three Scots pine first-thinning stands with the breast-height diameter of the removal (6 12 cm) as the main distinctive factor. The supply chains included in the comparison were based on cut-to-length harvesting, whole-tree harvesting and bundle harvesting (whole-tree bundling). With the current ratio of pulp and energy prices, the wood paying capability declines with an increase in the proportion of the energy fraction of the raw material. The supply system based on the cut-to-length method was the most efficient option, resulting in the highest residual value at stump in most cases. A decline in the pulp price and an increase in the energy price improved the competitiveness of the whole-tree systems. With short truck transportation distances and low pulp prices, however, the harvesting of loose whole trees can result in higher residual value at stump in small-diameter stands. While savings in transportation costs did not compensate for the high cutting and compaction costs by the second prototype of the bundle harvester, an increase in transportation distances improved its competitiveness. Since harvesting undelimbed assortments increases nutrient export from the site, which can affect soil productivity, the whole-tree alternatives included in the present study cannot be recommended on infertile peatlands and mineral soils. The harvesting of loose whole trees or bundled whole trees implies a reduction in protective logging residues and an increase in site traffic or payloads. These factors increase the risk of soil damage, especially on peat soils with poor bearing capacity. Within the wood procurement parameters which were examined, the CO2 emissions of the supply systems varied from 13 27 kg m3. Compaction of whole trees into bundles reduced emissions from transportation by 30 39%, but these reductions were insufficient to compensate for the increased emissions from cutting and compaction.

Solid State Electrochemical Sensors in Process Control

The basic principles of operation of gas sensors based on solid-state galvanic cells are described. The polarisation of the electrodes can be minimised by the use of point electrodes made of the solid electrolyte, the use of a reference system with chemical potential close to that of the sample system and the use of graded condensed phase reference electrodes. Factors affecting the speed of response of galvanic sensors in equilibrium and non-equilibrium gas mixtures are considered with reference to products of combustion of fossil fuels. An expression for the emf of non-isothermal galvanic sensors and the criterion for the design of temperature compensated reference electrodes for non-isothermal galvanic sensors are briefly outlined. Non-isothermal sensors are useful for the continuous monitoring of concentrations or chemical potentials in reactive systems at high temperatures. Sensors for oxygen, carbon, and alloying elements (Zn and Si) in liquid metals and alloys are discussed. The use of auxiliary electrodes permits the detection of chemical species in the gas phase which are not mobile in the solid electrolyte. Finally, the cause of common errors in galvanic measurements, and tests for correct functioning of galvanic sensors are given. 60 ref.--AA