Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

In-service training needs in an African context: a study of headteacher and teacher perspectives in the Gucha District of Kenya

Improving the quality of teaching is an educational priority in Kenya, as in many developing countries. The present paper considers various aspects of in-service education, including views on the effectiveness of in-service, teacher and headteacher priorities in determining in-service needs and the constraints on providing in-service courses. These issues are examined though an empirical study of 30 secondary headteachers and 109 teachers in a district of Kenya. The results show a strong felt need for in-service provision together with a firm belief in the efficacy of in-service in raising pupil achievement. Headteachers had a stronger belief in the need for in-service for their teachers than did the teachers themselves. The priorities of both headteachers and teachers were dominated by the external pressures of the schools, in particular the pressures for curriculum innovation and examination success. The resource constraints on supporting attendance at in-service courses were the major problems facing headteachers. The results reflect the difficulties that responding to an externally driven in-service agenda creates in a context of scarce resources.

The acceptability of isoflavones as a treatment of menopausal symptoms: a European survey among postmenopausal women

Objective: To investigate determinants of the acceptability of isoflavone products among postmenopausal women with regard to social and lifestyle factors, dietary habits, health concerns, food beliefs, menopausal symptoms and therapies, and to elucidate preferences for specific products. Methods: A consumer survey was conducted among postmenopausal women in four European countries (Germany, Denmark, Italy and the UK), including a total of 465 respondents. Results: The declared acceptability of isoflavones was highest in Germany (80%), followed by Italy (75%), the UK (59%) and Denmark (55%; p < 0.001). Among other factors, prior information about isoflavones (odds ratio (OR) 2.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.54-4.51, p < 0.001) and belief that foods can be used to treat medical conditions (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.17-4.05, p=0.014) were the strongest predictors of potential acceptability. The preferred forms in which isoflavones might be taken differed markedly between countries. Conclusions: Information about the health effects of isoflavones and health-diet links should be considered the most important factors in attempts to influence the potential acceptability of isoflavone products. Foods enriched with isoflavones need to be developed with regard to specific cultural demands in order to assure consumer acceptance on the marketplace.

Binocular coordination of the eyes during reading

Saccadic eye movements and fixations are the behavioral means by which we visually sample text during reading. Human oculomotor control is governed by a complex neurophysiological system involving the brain stem, superior colliculus, and several cortical areas [1, 2]. A very widely held belief among researchers investigating primate vision is that the oculomotor system serves to orient the visual axes of both eyes to fixate the same target point in space. It is argued that such precise positioning of the eyes is necessary to place images on corresponding retinal locations, such that on each fixation a single, nondiplopic, visual representation is perceived [3]. Vision works actively through a continual sampling process involving saccades and fixations [4]. Here we report that during normal reading, the eyes do not always fixate the same letter within a word. We also demonstrate that saccadic targeting is yoked and based on a unified cyclopean percept of a whole word since it is unaffected if different word parts are delivered exclusively to each eye via a dichoptic presentation technique. These two findings together suggest that the visual signal from each eye is fused at a very early stage in the visual pathway, even when the fixation disparity is greater than one character (0.29 deg), and that saccade metrics for each eye are computed on the basis of that fused signal.

The evolution of strategy: thinking war from antiquity to the present

Latin had no word for "strategy", but the East Romans, whom we call the Byzantines, did. This book tracks the evolution of the concept of warfare being subjected to higher political aims from Antiquity to the Present, using Greek, Latin, French, Spanish, Italian, English and German sources. It tracks the rise, fall, and resurrection of the belief in the Roman and later the medieval and early modern world that warfare was only legitimate if it pursued the higher goal of a just peace, which in the 19th century gave way to a blinkered concentration on military victory as only war aim. It explains why one school of thought, from Antiquity to the present, emphasised eternal principles of warfare, while others emphasised, in Clausewitz's term, the "changing character of war". It tracks ideas from land warfare to naval warfare to air power and nuclear thinking, but it also stresses great leaps and discontinuities in thinking about strategy. It covers asymmetric wars both from the point of view of the weaker power seeking to overthrow a stronger power, and from the stronger power dealing with insurgents and other numerically inferior forces. It concludes with a commentary of the long-known problems of bureaucratic politics, non-centralised command and inter-service rivalry, which since the 16th century or earlier has created obstacles to coherent strategy making.

Farm forestry in Pakistan: an application of Theory of Planned Behaviour by probing into the measurement issues

A research has been conducted over methodological issues concerning the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) by determining an appropriate measurement (direct and indirect) of constructs and selection of a plausible scaling techniques (unipolar and bipolar) of constructs: attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control and intention that are important in explaining farm level tree planting in Pakistan. Unipolar scoring of beliefs showed higher correlation among the constructs of TPB than bipolar scaling technique. Both direct and indirect methods yielded significant results in explaining intention to perform farm forestry except the belief based measure of perceived behavioural control, which were analysed as statistically non-significant. A need to examine more carefully the scoring of perceived behavioural control (PBC) has been expressed

Action observation and robotic agents: learning and anthropomorphism

The ‘action observation network’ (AON), which is thought to translate observed actions into motor codes required for their execution, is biologically tuned: it responds more to observation of human, than non-human, movement. This biological specificity has been taken to support the hypothesis that the AON underlies various social functions, such as theory of mind and action understanding, and that, when it is active during observation of non-human agents like humanoid robots, it is a sign of ascription of human mental states to these agents. This review will outline evidence for biological tuning in the AON, examining the features which generate it, and concluding that there is evidence for tuning to both the form and kinematic profile of observed movements, and little evidence for tuning to belief about stimulus identity. It will propose that a likely reason for biological tuning is that human actions, relative to non-biological movements, have been observed more frequently while executing corresponding actions. If the associative hypothesis of the AON is correct, and the network indeed supports social functioning, sensorimotor experience with non-human agents may help us to predict, and therefore interpret, their movements.

Hobbes, history, and non-domination

Pettit's and Skinner's stimulating books are open to historically-minded objections. Pettit's reading of Hobbes is Rousseauian, but he rejects the Hobbesian/Rousseauian belief that some modern people are driven by amour-propre/“glory”. If Hobbes is right, there is, in Pettit's sense, no “common good”. Skinner's treatment of the neo-Roman “theorists” over-estimates their self-consciousness and their consistency. Leviathan chapter 21 is not a response to neo-Romanism; it treats civil liberty as non-obligation, not as non-interference.

A literature review and future agenda for B2B branding: Challenges of branding in a B2B context

The existing body of research knowledge on brand management has been predominantly derived from business-to-consumer markets, particularly fast moving consumer goods and has only recently started to expand in other contexts. Branding in business-to-business markets has received comparatively little attention in the academic literature due to a belief that industrial buyers are unaffected by the emotional values corresponding to brands. This paper provides a critical discussion of the fragmented literature on business-to-business branding which is organized in five themes: B2B branding benefits; the role of B2B brands in the decision making process; B2B brand architecture; B2B brands as communication enablers and relationship builders; and industrial brand equity. Drawing on the gaps and contradictions in the literature the paper concludes by proposing an agenda for future research.

School effectiveness: new managerialism, quality and the Japanisation of education

School effectiveness is a microtechnology of change. It is a relay device, which transfers macro policy into everyday processes and priorities in schools. It is part of the growing apparatus of performance evaluation. Change is brought about by a focus on the school as a site-based system to be managed. There has been corporate restructuring in response to the changing political economy of education. There are now new work regimes and radical changes in organizational cultures. Education, like other public services, is now characterized by a range of structural realignments, new relationships between purchasers and providers and new coalitions between management and politics. In this article, we will argue that the school effectiveness movement is an example of new managerialism in education. It is part of an ideological and technological process to industrialize educational productivity. That is to say, the emphasis on standards and standardization is evocative of production regimes drawn from industry. There is a belief that education, like other public services can be managed to ensure optimal outputs and zero defects in the educational product.

The dynamics of asset prices and transaction activity in illiquid markets: the case of private commercial real estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.

The zooarchaeology of medieval Christendom: ideology, the treatment of animals and the making of medieval Europe

The formation of Christendom – of Europe – was associated with a standardized worldview expressing dominion over the natural world. While some sections of medieval society, specifically monasteries and the aristocratic class, appear to have developed this paradigm, there is also evidence for heterogeneity in practice and belief. Zooarchaeologists have accumulated vast quantities of data from medieval contexts which has enabled the ecological signatures of specific social groups to be identified, and how these developed from the latter centuries of the first millennium ad. It is possible from this to consider whether trends in animal exploitation can be associated with the Christian world view of dominion, and with the very idea of what it meant to be Christian. This may enable zooarchaeologists to situate the ecological trends of the Middle Ages within the context of Europeanization, and the consolidation of a Christian society.

Effects of repeated cycles of acid challenge and growth on the phenotype and virulence of Salmonella enterica

Aims: The aim of the study was to investigate how stresses like low pH, which may be encountered in farms or food preparation premises, shape populations of Salmonella enterica by the selection of stress-resistant variants. Methods and Results: Stationary-phase cultures of S. enterica serovar Enteritidis and serovar Typhimurium (one strain of each) were exposed to pH 2Æ5 for up to 4 h, followed by growth at pH 7 for 48 h. This process was repeated 15 times in two separate experiments, which increased the acid resistance of the three out of four populations we obtained, by three- to fourfold. Sustainable variants derived from the populations showed changes in colony morphology, expression of SEF17 fimbriae, growth, increased heat resistance and reduced virulence. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that low pH environments can select for populations of S. enterica with persistent phenotypic changes such as increased acid resistance and occasionally increased SEF17 expression and lower virulence. Significance and Impact of the Study: There is a common belief that increased acid resistance coincides with increased virulence. This study demonstrates for the first time that increased acid resistance often impairs virulence and affects the general phenotype of S. enterica.

Experience and real estate investment decision-making: a process-tracing investigation

This study investigates the impact of experience upon trained behaviours in real estate investment decision‐making. In a controlled experiment design, two groups of subjects, experts and novices, conduct an evaluation and reach a decision about two investment options. Using a process‐tracing technique, each subject’s behaviour is observed and recorded. Differences between the groups are discovered in relation to some behaviour characteristics, but experience appears not to impact all behaviours. These findings are discussed in relation to the current absence of a universal normative model of real estate investment decision‐making. In an associated component of the study, the belief that monetary compensation is needed in order to render valid results from studies such as this is tested. We find this not to be the case.