Testing of a Market Fraction Model and Power-law Behaviour in the DAX 30

This paper tests a simple market fraction asset pricing model with heterogeneous
agents. By selecting a set of structural parameters of the model through a systematic procedure, we show that the autocorrelations (of returns, absolute returns and squared returns) of the market fraction model share the same pattern as those of the DAX 30. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we characterize these power-law behaviours and find that estimates of the power-law decay indices, the (FI)GARCH parameters, and the tail index of the selected market fraction model closely match those of the DAX 30. The results strongly support the explanatory power of the heterogeneous agent models.

The cross-section of stock returns in an early stock market

Using a new dataset which contains monthly data on 1015 stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange between 1825 and 1870, we investigate the cross section of stock returns in this early capital market. Unique features of this market allow us to evaluate the veracity of several popular explanations of asset pricing behavior. Using portfolio analysis and Fama–MacBeth regressions, we find that stock characteristics such as beta, illiquidity, dividend yield, and past-year return performance are all positively correlated with stock returns. However, market capitalization and past-three-year return performance have no significant correlation with stock returns.

Domestic fridge-freezer load aggregation to support ancillary services

Grid operators and electricity retailers in Ireland manage peak demand, power system balancing and grid congestion by offering relevant incentives to consumers to reduce or shift their load. The need for active consumers in the home using smart appliances has never been greater, due to increased variable renewable generation and grid constraints. In this paper an aggregated model of a single compressor fridge-freezer population is developed. A price control strategy is examined to quantify and value demand response savings during a representative winter and summer week for Ireland in 2020. The results show an average reduction in fridge-freezer operating cost of 8.2% during winter and significantly lower during summer in Ireland. A peak reduction of at least 68% of the average winter refrigeration load is achieved consistently during the week analysed using a staggering control mode. An analysis of the current ancillary service payments confirms that these are insufficient to ensure widespread uptake by the small consumer, and new mechanisms need to be developed to make becoming an active consumer attractive. Demand response is proposed as a new ancillary service called ramping capability, as the need for this service will increase with more renewable energy penetration on the power system.

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Iso-Quality of Service: Fairly Ranking Servers for Real-Time Data Analytics

We present a mathematically rigorous Quality-of-Service (QoS) metric which relates the achievable quality of service metric (QoS) for a real-time analytics service to the server energy cost of offering the service. Using a new iso-QoS evaluation methodology, we scale server resources to meet QoS targets and directly rank the servers in terms of their energy-efficiency and by extension cost of ownership. Our metric and method are platform-independent and enable fair comparison of datacenter compute servers with significant architectural diversity, including micro-servers. We deploy our metric and methodology to compare three servers running financial option pricing workloads on real-life market data. We find that server ranking is sensitive to data inputs and desired QoS level and that although scale-out micro-servers can be up to two times more energy-efficient than conventional heavyweight servers for the same target QoS, they are still six times less energy efficient than high-performance computational accelerators.

Urban high-density construction sites and their surrounding community:issues encountered and strategiesadopted by contractors

Inner city developments are a common feature within many urban environments. Where these construction sites are not managed effectively, they can negatively impact their surrounding community. The aim of this paper is to identify and document, in an urban context, the numerous issues encounter and subsequent strategies adopted by on-site contractors and local people, in the mitigation of factors which negatively impact their surrounding community. The objectives in achieving this aim are to identify what effect, if any, an urban construction site has on its surrounding environment, the issues and resulting strategies adopted by contractors on the factors identified, and also what measures are put in place to minimise such disturbances to the local community. In order to meet the requirements, a mixed methodology is adopted culminating in a literature review, case study analysis, contractor and community interviews, concluding in the development of two specific questions for both perspectives in question. The data is assessed using severity indices based on mean testing in the development of key findings. The results indicate that the main forms of disturbance to the local community from an urban development include noise, dust and traffic congestion. With respect to a contractor on-site, the key issues include damaging surrounding buildings, noise control and off-site parking. The resulting strategies identified in the mitigation of such issues include the implementation of noise and dust containment measures and minimising disruption to local infrastructure. It is envisaged that the results of this study will provide contractors operating in such environments, with the required information which can assist in minimising disruption and therefore, avoiding disputes with the local community members. By consulting with and surveying those most affected, this research will illustrate to on-site management, the difficulties faced by those who accommodate such developments within their living environment.

Methods and Metrics for Fair Server Assessment under Real-Time Financial Workloads

We present a rigorous methodology and new metrics for fair comparison of server and microserver platforms. Deploying our methodology and metrics, we compare a microserver with ARM cores against two servers with ×86 cores running the same real-time financial analytics workload. We define workload-specific but platform-independent performance metrics for platform comparison, targeting both datacenter operators and end users. Our methodology establishes that a server based on the Xeon Phi co-processor delivers the highest performance and energy efficiency. However, by scaling out energy-efficient microservers, we achieve competitive or better energy efficiency than a power-equivalent server with two Sandy Bridge sockets, despite the microserver's slower cores. Using a new iso-QoS metric, we find that the ARM microserver scales enough to meet market throughput demand, that is, a 100% QoS in terms of timely option pricing, with as little as 55% of the energy consumed by the Sandy Bridge server.

Visual function and postoperative care after cataract surgery in rural China: study of cataract outcomes and up-take of services (SCOUTS) in the caring is hip project, report 2.

OBJECTIVE:

To study the postoperative visual function and uptake of refraction and second-eye surgery among persons undergoing cataract surgery in rural China.

METHODS:

Self-reported visual function was measured 10 to 14 months after surgery. Subjects with improvement of 2 or more lines with refraction were offered glasses, and those with significant cataract were offered second-eye surgery.

RESULTS:

Among 313 eligible subjects, 242 (77%) could be contacted; 176 (73%) of those contacted were examined. Interviewed subjects had a mean +/- SD age of 69.9 +/- 10.2 years, and 63.6% were female. The mean +/- SD visual function score was 88.4 +/- 12.3, higher than previously reported for cataract programs in rural China and significantly (P = .03) correlated with presenting vision. Forty-two percent of subjects had spectacles, more than half being reading glasses. Though 87% of subjects' vision improved with refraction, only 35% accepted prescriptions, the most common reason for refusal being lack of perceived need. Second-eye surgery was accepted by a total of 48% (85 of 176) of patients, cost being the biggest reason for refusal.

CONCLUSIONS:

Visual function was high in this cohort. Potential benefit of refraction and second-eye surgery was substantial, but uptake of services was modest. Programs to improve service uptake should focus on reading glasses and cost-reduction strategies such as tiered pricing.

The Adaptiveness in Stock Markets: Testing the Stylized Facts in the DAX 30

By testing a simple asset pricing model of heterogeneous agents to characterize the power-law behavior of the DAX 30 from 1975 to 2007, we provide supporting evidence on empirical findings that investors and fund managers use combinations of fixed and switching strategies based on fundamental and technical analysis when making investment decisions. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the autocorrelation patterns, the estimates of the power-law decay indices, (FI)GARCH parameters, and tail index of the model match closely the corresponding estimates for the DAX 30. A mechanism analysis based on the calibrated model provides further insights into the explanatory power of heterogeneous agent models.

Influência do risco de incumprimento nos retornos de capital

Sempre foi do interesse das instituições financeiras de crédito determinar o risco de incumprimento associado a uma empresa por forma a avaliar o seu perfil. No entanto, esta informação é útil a todos os stakeholders de uma empresa, já que também estes comprometem uma parte de si ao interagirem com esta. O aumento do número de insolvências nos últimos anos tem reafirmado a necessidade de ampliar e aprofundar a pesquisa sobre o stress financeiro. A identificação dos fatores que influenciam a determinação do preço dos ativos sempre foi do interesse de todos os stakeholders, por forma a antecipar a variação dos retornos e agir em sua conformidade. Nesta dissertação será estudada a influência do risco de incumprimento sobre os retornos de capital, usando como indicador do risco de incumprimento a probabilidade de incumprimento obtida segundo o modelo de opções de Merton (1974). Efetuou-se esta análise durante o período de Fevereiro de 2002 a Dezembro de 2011, utilizando dados de empresas Portuguesas, Espanholas e Gregas. Os resultados evidenciam uma relação negativa do risco de incumprimento com os retornos de capital, que é devida a um efeito momentum e à volatilidade. A par disso, também se demonstra que o tamanho e o book-to-market não são representativos do risco de incumprimento na amostra aqui utilizada, ao contrário do que Fama & French (1992; 1996) afirmavam.

Optimization models for a short sea fuel oil distribution problem

O transporte marítimo e o principal meio de transporte de mercadorias em todo o mundo. Combustíveis e produtos petrolíferos representam grande parte das mercadorias transportadas por via marítima. Sendo Cabo Verde um arquipelago o transporte por mar desempenha um papel de grande relevância na economia do país. Consideramos o problema da distribuicao de combustíveis em Cabo Verde, onde uma companhia e responsavel por coordenar a distribuicao de produtos petrolíferos com a gestão dos respetivos níveis armazenados em cada porto, de modo a satisfazer a procura dos varios produtos. O objetivo consiste em determinar políticas de distribuicão de combustíveis que minimizam o custo total de distribuiçao (transporte e operacões) enquanto os n íveis de armazenamento sao mantidos nos n íveis desejados. Por conveniencia, de acordo com o planeamento temporal, o prob¬lema e divido em dois sub-problemas interligados. Um de curto prazo e outro de medio prazo. Para o problema de curto prazo sao discutidos modelos matemáticos de programacao inteira mista, que consideram simultaneamente uma medicao temporal cont ínua e uma discreta de modo a modelar multiplas janelas temporais e taxas de consumo que variam diariamente. Os modelos sao fortalecidos com a inclusão de desigualdades validas. O problema e então resolvido usando um "software" comercial. Para o problema de medio prazo sao inicialmente discutidos e comparados varios modelos de programacao inteira mista para um horizonte temporal curto assumindo agora uma taxa de consumo constante, e sao introduzidas novas desigualdades validas. Com base no modelo escolhido sao compara¬das estrategias heurísticas que combinam três heur ísticas bem conhecidas: "Rolling Horizon", "Feasibility Pump" e "Local Branching", de modo a gerar boas soluçoes admissíveis para planeamentos com horizontes temporais de varios meses. Finalmente, de modo a lidar com situaçoes imprevistas, mas impor¬tantes no transporte marítimo, como as mas condicões meteorológicas e congestionamento dos portos, apresentamos um modelo estocastico para um problema de curto prazo, onde os tempos de viagens e os tempos de espera nos portos sao aleatórios. O problema e formulado como um modelo em duas etapas, onde na primeira etapa sao tomadas as decisões relativas as rotas do navio e quantidades a carregar e descarregar e na segunda etapa (designada por sub-problema) sao consideradas as decisoes (com recurso) relativas ao escalonamento das operacões. O problema e resolvido por um metodo de decomposto que usa um algoritmo eficiente para separar as desigualdades violadas no sub-problema.

Control design for multicast-aware class-based networks

The expectations of citizens from the Information Technologies (ITs) are increasing as the ITs have become integral part of our society, serving all kinds of activities whether professional, leisure, safety-critical applications or business. Hence, the limitations of the traditional network designs to provide innovative and enhanced services and applications motivated a consensus to integrate all services over packet switching infrastructures, using the Internet Protocol, so as to leverage flexible control and economical benefits in the Next Generation Networks (NGNs). However, the Internet is not capable of treating services differently while each service has its own requirements (e.g., Quality of Service - QoS). Therefore, the need for more evolved forms of communications has driven to radical changes of architectural and layering designs which demand appropriate solutions for service admission and network resources control. This Thesis addresses QoS and network control issues, aiming to improve overall control performance in current and future networks which classify services into classes. The Thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part, we propose two resource over-reservation algorithms, a Class-based bandwidth Over-Reservation (COR) and an Enhanced COR (ECOR). The over-reservation means reserving more bandwidth than a Class of Service (CoS) needs, so the QoS reservation signalling rate is reduced. COR and ECOR allow for dynamically defining over-reservation parameters for CoSs based on network interfaces resource conditions; they aim to reduce QoS signalling and related overhead without incurring CoS starvation or waste of bandwidth. ECOR differs from COR by allowing for optimizing control overhead minimization. Further, we propose a centralized control mechanism called Advanced Centralization Architecture (ACA), that uses a single state-full Control Decision Point (CDP) which maintains a good view of its underlying network topology and the related links resource statistics on real-time basis to control the overall network. It is very important to mention that, in this Thesis, we use multicast trees as the basis for session transport, not only for group communication purposes, but mainly to pin packets of a session mapped to a tree to follow the desired tree. Our simulation results prove a drastic reduction of QoS control signalling and the related overhead without QoS violation or waste of resources. Besides, we provide a generic-purpose analytical model to assess the impact of various parameters (e.g., link capacity, session dynamics, etc.) that generally challenge resource overprovisioning control. In the second part of this Thesis, we propose a decentralization control mechanism called Advanced Class-based resource OverpRovisioning (ACOR), that aims to achieve better scalability than the ACA approach. ACOR enables multiple CDPs, distributed at network edge, to cooperate and exchange appropriate control data (e.g., trees and bandwidth usage information) such that each CDP is able to maintain a good knowledge of the network topology and the related links resource statistics on real-time basis. From scalability perspective, ACOR cooperation is selective, meaning that control information is exchanged dynamically among only the CDPs which are concerned (correlated). Moreover, the synchronization is carried out through our proposed concept of Virtual Over-Provisioned Resource (VOPR), which is a share of over-reservations of each interface to each tree that uses the interface. Thus, each CDP can process several session requests over a tree without requiring synchronization between the correlated CDPs as long as the VOPR of the tree is not exhausted. Analytical and simulation results demonstrate that aggregate over-reservation control in decentralized scenarios keep low signalling without QoS violations or waste of resources. We also introduced a control signalling protocol called ACOR Protocol (ACOR-P) to support the centralization and decentralization designs in this Thesis. Further, we propose an Extended ACOR (E-ACOR) which aggregates the VOPR of all trees that originate at the same CDP, and more session requests can be processed without synchronization when compared with ACOR. In addition, E-ACOR introduces a mechanism to efficiently track network congestion information to prevent unnecessary synchronization during congestion time when VOPRs would exhaust upon every session request. The performance evaluation through analytical and simulation results proves the superiority of E-ACOR in minimizing overall control signalling overhead while keeping all advantages of ACOR, that is, without incurring QoS violations or waste of resources. The last part of this Thesis includes the Survivable ACOR (SACOR) proposal to support stable operations of the QoS and network control mechanisms in case of failures and recoveries (e.g., of links and nodes). The performance results show flexible survivability characterized by fast convergence time and differentiation of traffic re-routing under efficient resource utilization i.e. without wasting bandwidth. In summary, the QoS and architectural control mechanisms proposed in this Thesis provide efficient and scalable support for network control key sub-systems (e.g., QoS and resource control, traffic engineering, multicasting, etc.), and thus allow for optimizing network overall control performance.

Rate adaptation for wireless video streaming based on error statistics

This paper presents a new rate-control algorithm for live video streaming over wireless IP networks, which is based on selective frame discarding. In the proposed mechanism excess 'P' frames are dropped from the output queue at the sender using a congestion estimate based on packet loss statistics obtained from RTCP feedback and from the Data Link (DL) layer. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through computer simulation. This paper also presents a characterisation of packet losses owing to transmission errors and congestion, which can help in choosing appropriate strategies to maximise the video quality experienced by the end user. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Kollisionsverlust bei zeitgerastertem Vielfachzugriff

In Zeitmultiplex-Vielfachzugriff-(TDMA-)Durchschalte-Vermittlungsnetzen mit verteilter Steuerung können Kollisionen von Zugriffsvorgängen auftreten. Es wird unterstellt, daß die den kollidierenden Zugriffsvorgängen zugehörigen Verbindungswünsche nicht weiterbehandelt werden und deshalb wegen Kollision zu Verlust gehen. Die zugehörige Verlustwahrscheinlichkeit -genannt Kollisionsverlust BK - wird allgemein berechnet. Die numerische Auswertung zeigt, daß für Fernsprechverkehr diese - gegenüber Systemen mit konzentrierter Steuerung - zusätzlichen Kollisionsverluste vernachlässigt werden können gegenüber den üblichen Planungsverlusten wegen Abnehmermangels.

Generalized Systematic Risk

We generalize the concept of .systematic risk to a broad class of risk measures potentially accounting for high distribution moments, downside risk, rare disasters, as well as other risk attributes. We offer two different approaches. First is an equilibrium framework generalizing the Capital Asset Pricing Model, two-fund separation, and the security market line. Second is an axiomatic approach resulting in a systematic risk measure as the unique solution to a risk allocation problem. Both approaches lead to similar results extending the traditional beta to capture multiple dimensions of risk. The results lend themselves naturally to empirical investigation.