Simulations in evolution. II. Relative fitness and the propagation of mutants.

In Neo-Darwinism, variation and natural selection are the two evolutionary mechanisms which propel biological evolution. Our previous article presented a histogram model [1] consisting in populations of individuals whose number changed under the influence of variation and/or fitness, the total population remaining constant. Individuals are classified into bins, and the content of each bin is calculated generation after generation by an Excel spreadsheet. Here, we apply the histogram model to a stable population with fitness F(1)=1.00 in which one or two fitter mutants emerge. In a first scenario, a single mutant emerged in the population whose fitness was greater than 1.00. The simulations ended when the original population was reduced to a single individual. The histogram model was validated by excellent agreement between its predictions and those of a classical continuous function (Eqn. 1) which predicts the number of generations needed for a favorable mutation to spread throughout a population. But in contrast to Eqn. 1, our histogram model is adaptable to more complex scenarios, as demonstrated here. In the second and third scenarios, the original population was present at time zero together with two mutants which differed from the original population by two higher and distinct fitness values. In the fourth scenario, the large original population was present at time zero together with one fitter mutant. After a number of generations, when the mutant offspring had multiplied, a second mutant was introduced whose fitness was even greater. The histogram model also allows Shannon entropy (SE) to be monitored continuously as the information content of the total population decreases or increases. The results of these simulations illustrate, in a graphically didactic manner, the influence of natural selection, operating through relative fitness, in the emergence and dominance of a fitter mutant.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Buy-and-Hold Strategies and Comonotonic Approximations

[cat] En aquest article estudiem estratègies “comprar i mantenir” per a problemes d’optimitzar la riquesa final en un context multi-període. Com que la riquesa final és una suma de variables aleatòries dependents, on cadascuna d’aquestes correspon a una quantitat de capital que s’ha invertit en un actiu particular en una data determinada, en primer lloc considerem aproximacions que redueixen l’aleatorietat multivariant al cas univariant. A continuació, aquestes aproximacions es fan servir per determinar les estratègies “comprar i mantenir” que optimitzen, per a un nivell de probabilitat donat, el VaR i el CLTE de la funció de distribució de la riquesa final. Aquest article complementa el treball de Dhaene et al. (2005), on es van considerar estratègies de reequilibri constant.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Modelos de tasas de interes en Chile: una revisión

Con este trabajo revisamos los Modelos de niveles de las tasas de intereses en Chile. Además de los Modelos de Nivel tradicionales por Chan, Karoly, Longstaff y Lijadoras (1992) en EE. UU, y Parisi (1998) en Chile, por el método de Probabilidad Maximun permitimos que la volatilidad condicional también incluya los procesos inesperados de la información (el modelo GARCH ) y también que la volatilidad sea la función del nivel de la tasa de intereses (modelo TVP-NIVELE) como en Brenner, Harjes y la Crona (1996). Para esto usamos producciones de mercado de bonos de reconocimiento, en cambio las producciones mensuales medias de subasta PDBC, y la ampliación del tamaño y la frecuencia de la muestra a 4 producciones semanales con términos(condiciones) diferentes a la madurez: 1 año, 5 años, 10 años y 15 años. Los resultados principales del estudio pueden ser resumidos en esto: la volatilidad de los cambios inesperados de las tarifas depende positivamente del nivel de las tarifas, sobre todo en el modelo de TVP-NIVEL. Obtenemos pruebas de reversión tacañas, tal que los incrementos en las tasas de intereses no eran independientes, contrariamente a lo obtenido por Brenner. en EE. UU. Los modelos de NIVELES no son capaces de ajustar apropiadamente la volatilidad en comparación con un modelo GARCH (1,1), y finalmente, el modelo de TVP-NIVEL no vence los resultados del modelo GARCH (1,1)

Is the impact of public investment neutral across the regional income distribution?: evidence from Mexico

This paper investigates the contribution of public investment to the reduction of regional inqualities, with a specific application to Mexico. We use quantile regressions to examine the impact of public investment on regional disparities according to the position of each region in the conditional distribution of regional income. Results confirm the hypothesis that regional inequalities can indeed be atrributed to the regional distribution of public investment, where the observed pattern shows that public investment mainly helped to reduce regional inequalities between the richest regions

Diffusionless first-order phase transitions in systems with frozen configurational degrees of freedom

We consider systems that can be described in terms of two kinds of degree of freedom. The corresponding ordering modes may, under certain conditions, be coupled to each other. We may thus assume that the primary ordering mode gives rise to a diffusionless first-order phase transition. The change of its thermodynamic properties as a function of the secondary-ordering-mode state is then analyzed. Two specific examples are discussed. First, we study a three-state Potts model in a binary system. Using mean-field techniques, we obtain the phase diagram and different properties of the system as a function of the distribution of atoms on the different lattice sites. In the second case, the properties of a displacive structural phase transition of martensitic type in a binary alloy are studied as a function of atomic order. Because of the directional character of the martensitic-transition mechanism, we find only a very weak dependence of the entropy on atomic order. Experimental results are found to be in quite good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Influence of configurational atomic order on the relative stability of bcc and close-packed structures in Cu-based alloys

We present a study of the influence of atomic order on the relative stability of the bcc and the 18R martensitic structures in a Cu2.96Al0.92Be0.12 crystal. Calorimetric measurements have shown that disorder increases the stability of the 18R phase, contrary to what happens in Cu-Zn-Al alloys for which it is the bcc phase that is stabilized by disordering the system. This different behavior has been explained in terms of a model recently reported. We have also proved that the entropy change at the martensitic transition is independent of the state of atomic order of the crystal, as predicted theoretically. Our results suggest that differences in the vibrational spectrum of the crystal due to different states of atomic order must be equal in the bcc and in the close-packed phases.

On the stability of the bcc phase in Cu-Al-Mn shape memory alloys

Measurements of the entropy change at the martensitic transition of two composition-related sets of Cu-Al-Mn shape-memory alloys are reported. It is found that most of the entropy change has a vibrational origin, and depends only on the particular close-packed structure of the low-temperature phase. Using data from the literature for other Cu-based alloys, this result is shown to be general. In addition, it is shown that the martensitic structure changes from 18R to 2H when the ratio of conduction electrons per atom reaches the same value as the eutectoid point in the equilibrium phase diagram. This finding indicates that the structure of the metastable low-temperature phase is reminiscent of the equilibrium structure.

Hypernuclear structure with the new Nijmegen potentials

Information on level density for nuclei with mass numbers A?20250 is deduced from discrete low-lying levels and neutron resonance data. The odd-mass nuclei exhibit in general 47 times the level density found for their neighboring even-even nuclei at the same excitation energy. This excess corresponds to an entropy of ?1.7kB for the odd particle. The value is approximately constant for all midshell nuclei and for all ground state spins. For these nuclei it is argued that the entropy scales with the number of particles not coupled in Cooper pairs. A simple model based on the canonical ensemble theory accounts qualitatively for the observed properties.

Ferromagnetic instabilities in neutron matter at finite temperature with the Skyrme interaction

The properties of spin-polarized neutron matter are studied at both zero and finite temperature using Skyrme-type interactions. It is shown that the critical density at which ferromagnetism takes place decreases with temperature. This unexpected behavior is associated to an anomalous behavior of the entropy that becomes larger for the polarized phase than for the unpolarized one above a certain critical density. This fact is a consequence of the dependence of the entropy on the effective mass of the neutrons with different third spin component. A new constraint on the parameters of the effective Skyrme force is derived if this behavior is to be avoided.

Is Tsallis thermodynamics nonextensive?

Within the Tsallis thermodynamics framework, and using scaling properties of the entropy, we derive a generalization of the Gibbs-Duhem equation. The analysis suggests a transformation of variables that allows standard thermodynamics to be recovered. Moreover, we also generalize Einsteins formula for the probability of a fluctuation to occur by means of the maximum statistical entropy method. The use of the proposed transformation of variables also shows that fluctuations within Tsallis statistics can be mapped to those of standard statistical mechanics.

Anomalous specific-heat jump in a two-component ultracold Fermi gas

The thermodynamic functions of a Fermi gas with spin population imbalance are studied in the temperature-asymmetry plane in the BCS limit. The low-temperature domain is characterized by an anomalous enhancement of the entropy and the specific heat above their values in the unpaired state, decrease of the gap and eventual unpairing phase transition as the temperature is lowered. The unpairing phase transition induces a second jump in the specific heat, which can be measured in calorimetric experiments. While the superfluid is unstable against a supercurrent carrying state, it may sustain a metastable state if cooled adiabatically down from the stable high-temperature domain. In the latter domain the temperature dependence of the gap and related functions is analogous to the predictions of the BCS theory.

Elastocaloric effect associated with the martensitic transition in shape-memory alloys

The elastocaloric effect in the vicinity of the martensitic transition of a Cu-Zn-Al single crystal has been studied by inducing the transition by strain or stress measurements. While transition trajectories show significant differences, the entropy change associated with the whole transformation (DeltaSt) is coincident in both kinds of experiments since entropy production is small compared to DeltaSt. The values agree with estimations based on the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The possibility of using these materials for mechanical refrigeration is also discussed.