Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Extraordinary and extensive karyotypic variation: A 48-fold range in chromosome number in the gall-inducing scale insect Apiomorpha (Hemiptera : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

Chromosome number reflects strong constraints on karyotype evolution, unescaped by the majority of animal taxa. Although there is commonly chromosomal polymorphism among closely related taxa, very large differences in chromosome number are rare. This study reports one of the most extensive chromosomal ranges yet reported for an animal genus. Apiomorpha Rubsaamen (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Eriococcidae), an endemic Australian gall-inducing scale insect genus, exhibits an extraordinary 48-fold variation in chromosome number with diploid numbers ranging from 4 to about 192. Diploid complements of all other eriococcids examined to date range only from 6 to 28. Closely related species of Apiomorpha usually have very different karyotypes, to the extent that the variation within some species- groups is as great as that across the entire genus. There is extensive chromosomal variation among populations within 17 of the morphologically defined species of Apiomorpha indicating the existence of cryptic species-complexes. The extent and pattern of karyotypic variation suggests rapid chromosomal evolution via fissions and (or) fusions. It is hypothesized that chromosomal rearrangements in Apiomorpha species may be associated with these insects' tracking the radiation of their speciose host genus, Eucalyptus.

Kinematic and non-linear analysis of foldable barrel vaults

Kinematic analysis is conducted to derive the geometric constraints for the geometric design of foldable barrel vaults (FBV) composed of polar or angulated scissor units. Non-linear structural analysis is followed to determine the structural response of FBVs in the fully deployed configuration under static loading. Two load cases are considered: cross wind and longitudinal wind. The effect of varying member sizes, depth-to-span ratio and geometric imperfections is examined. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Context-free and context-sensitive dynamics in recurrent neural networks

Continuous-valued recurrent neural networks can learn mechanisms for processing context-free languages. The dynamics of such networks is usually based on damped oscillation around fixed points in state space and requires that the dynamical components are arranged in certain ways. It is shown that qualitatively similar dynamics with similar constraints hold for a(n)b(n)c(n), a context-sensitive language. The additional difficulty with a(n)b(n)c(n), compared with the context-free language a(n)b(n), consists of 'counting up' and 'counting down' letters simultaneously. The network solution is to oscillate in two principal dimensions, one for counting up and one for counting down. This study focuses on the dynamics employed by the sequential cascaded network, in contrast to the simple recurrent network, and the use of backpropagation through time. Found solutions generalize well beyond training data, however, learning is not reliable. The contribution of this study lies in demonstrating how the dynamics in recurrent neural networks that process context-free languages can also be employed in processing some context-sensitive languages (traditionally thought of as requiring additional computation resources). This continuity of mechanism between language classes contributes to our understanding of neural networks in modelling language learning and processing.

The role of economic evaluation in mental health care

Objective: A consequence of the integration of psychiatry into acute and public health medicine is that psychiatrists are being asked to evaluate their services. There is pressure on mental health-care systems because it is recognized that funds should be directed where they can provide the best health outcomes, and also because there are resource constraints which limit our capacity to meet all demands for health care. This pressure can be responded to by evaluation which demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of psychiatric treatment. This paper seeks to remind psychiatrists of the fundamental principles of economic evaluation in the hope that these will enable psychiatrists to understand the methods used in evaluation and to work comfortably with evaluators. Method: The paper reviews the basic principles behind economic evaluation, illustrating these with reference to case studies. It describes: (i) the cost of the burden of illness and treatment, and how these costs are measured; (ii) the measurement of treatment outcomes, both as changes in health status and as resources saved; and (iii) the various types of economic evaluation, including cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis. Results: The advice in the paper provides psychiatrists with the necessary background to work closely with evaluators. A checklist of the critical questions to be addressed is provided as a guide for those undertaking economic evaluations. Conclusions: If psychiatrists are willing to learn the basic principles of economic evaluation and to apply these, they can respond to the challenges of evaluation.

The efficacy of a universal school-based program to prevent adolescent depression

Evaluated whether a universal school-based program, designed to prevent depression in adolescents, could be effectively implemented within the constraints of the school environment. Participants were 260 Year 9 secondary school students. Students completed measures of depressive symptoms and hopelessness and were then assigned to 1 of 3 groups: (a) Resourceful Adolescent Program Adolescents (RAP A), an 11-session school-based resilience building program, as part of the school curriculum; (b) Resourceful Adolescent Program-Family (RAP-F), the same program as in RAP A, but in which each student's parents were also invited to participate in a 3-session parent program; and (c) Adolescent Watch, a comparison group in which adolescents simply completed the measures. The program was implemented with a high recruitment (88%), low attrition rate (5.8%), and satisfactory adherence to program protocol. Adolescents in either of the RAP programs reported significantly lower levels of depressive symptomatology and hopelessness at post-intervention and 10-month follow-up, compared with those in the comparison group. Adolescents also reported high satisfaction with the program. The study provides evidence for the efficacy of a school-based universal program designed to prevent depression in adolescence.

Cyclic octapeptides containing thiazole. Effect of stereochemistry and degree of flexibility on calcium binding properties

Solution conformation and calcium binding properties have been investigated for the two cyclic octapeptides cyclo(-D-Thr-D-Val(Thz)-Ile-)(2) (4) and cyclo(-Thr-Gly(Thz)-Ile-Ser-Gly(Thz)-Ile-)(5) and the results are compared to those for the cyclic octapeptides previously studied; ascidiacyclamide (1), patellamide D (2), cyclo(-Thr-D-Val(Thz)-Ile-)(2) (3), and cyclo(-Thr-D-Val-alphaAbu-Ile-)2 (6). Both 4 and 5 contain two heterocyclic thiazole ring constraints but the latter has a larger degree of flexibility as a consequence of the glycine residues within the cyclic framework. The solution conformation of 4 and 5 was determined from H-1 NMR spectra and found to be a twisted figure of eight similar to that for 2. Complexation studies using H-1 NMR and CD spectroscopy yielded 1 : 1 calcium-peptide binding constants (logK) for the two peptides (2.3 (4) and 5.7 (5)). For 5 the magnitude of the binding constant was verified by a competition titration using CD. The different calcium-binding affinities of 3 (logK = 4.0) and 4 is attributed to the stereochemistry of the threonine residue. The magnitude of the binding constant for 5 compared to 3 and 4 (all peptides containing two thiazole ring constrains) demonstrates that the increase in flexibility of the cyclic peptide has a dramatic effect on the Ca2+ binding ability. The affinity for Ca2+ thus decreases in the order (6 similar to 5 > 3 > 2 similar to 1 > 4). The number of carbonyl donors available on each peptide has only a limited effect on calcium binding. The most important factor is the flexibility, which allows for a conformation of the peptide capable of binding calcium efficiently.

The Las Campanas/AAT Rich Cluster Survey - II. The environmental dependence of galaxy colours in clusters at z similar to 0.1

We present a photometric investigation of the variation in galaxy colour with environment in 11 X-ray-luminous clusters at 0.07 less than or equal to z less than or equal to 0.16 taken from the Las Campanas/AAT Rich Cluster Survey. We study the properties of the galaxy populations in individual clusters, and take advantage of the homogeneity of the sample to combine the clusters together to investigate weaker trends in the composite sample. We find that modal colours of galaxies lying on the colour-magnitude relation in the clusters become bluer by d(B - R)/dr(p) = -0.022 +/- 0.004 from the cluster core out to a projected radius of r(p) = 6 Mpc, further out in radius than any previous study. We also examine the variation in modal galaxy colour with local galaxy density, 2, for galaxies lying close to the colour-magnitude relation, and find that the median colour shifts bluewards by d(B - R)/d log(10)(Sigma) = -0.076 +/- 0.009 with decreasing local density across three orders of magnitude. We show that the position of the red envelope of galaxies in the colour-magnitude relation does not vary as a function of projected radius or density within the clusters, suggesting that the change in the modal colour results from an increasing fraction of bluer galaxies within the colour-magnitude relation, rather than a change in the colours of the whole population. We show that this shift in the colour-magnitude relations with projected radius and local density is greater than that expected from the changing morphological mix based on the local morphology-density relation. We therefore conclude that we are seeing a real change in the properties of galaxies on the colour-magnitude relation in the outskirts of clusters. The simplest interpretation of this result (and similar constraints in local clusters) is that an increasing fraction of galaxies in the lower density regions at large radii within clusters exhibit signatures of star formation in the recent past, signatures which are not seen in the evolved galaxies in the highest density regions.