An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Manipulating keratinocyte stem cell proliferation and differentiation using RNA interference

ABSTRACT : The epidermis, the outermost compartment of the skin, is a stratified and squamous epithelium that constantly self-renews. Keratinocytes, which represent the main epidermal population, are responsible for its cohesion and barrier function. Epidermal renewal necessitates a fine equilibrium between keratinocyte proliferation and differentiation. The keratinocyte stem cell, located in the basal cell layer, is responsible for epidermal homeostasis and regeneration during the wound healing process. The transcription factor p63 structurally belongs to the p53 superfamily. It is expressed in the basal and supra-basal cell layers of stratified epithelia and is thought to be important for the renewal or the differentiation of keratinocyte stem cells (Yang et al., 1999; Mills et al., 1999). In order to better understand its function, we established an in vitro model of p63 deficient human keratinocyte stem cells using a shp63 mediated RNA interference. Knockdown of endogenous p63 induces downregulation of cell-adhesion genes as previously described (Carroll et al., 2006). Interestingly, the replating of attached p63-knockdown keratinocytes on a feeder layer results in a loss of attachment and proliferation. They are no longer clonogenic. However, if the same population are replated in a fibrin matrix, extended fibrinolysis is reported, a common process in wound healing, suggesting that p63 regulates the fibrinolytic pathway. This result was confirmed by Q-PCR and shows that the urokinase pathway, which mediates fibrinolysis, is upregulated. Altogether, these findings suggest a mechanism in which the fine tuning of p63 expression promotes attachment or release of the keratinocyte stem cell from the basement membrane by inducing genes of adhesion and/or of fibrinolysis. This mechanism may be important for epidermal self-renewal, differentiation as well as wound healing. Its misregulation may be partly responsible for the p63 knockout phenotype. The downregulation of p63 also induces a decrease in LEKTI expression. LEKTI (lymphoepithelial Kazal-type serine protease inhibitor) is a serine protease inhibitor encoded by the Spink5 gene. It is expressed and secreted in the uppermost differentiated layers of stratified epithelia and plays a role in the desquamation process. When this gene is disrupted, humans develop the Netherton syndrome (Chavanas et al., 2000b). It is a dermatosis characterized by hair dysplasias, ichtyosiform erythroderma and impairment in epidermal barrier function promoting inflammation similarly as in psoriasis with inflammatory infiltrate in excess. TNFα (tumor necrosis factor alpha) and EDA1 (ectodysplasin A1) are two transmembraneprecursors that belong to the TNF superfamily, which is involved in immune and inflammation regulation (Smahi et al., 2002). We suggest that the secreted serine protease inhibitor LEKTI plays a role in the regulation of TNFα and EDA1 precursor cleavage and absence of LEKTI induces excess of inflammation. To investigate this hypothesis, we induced downregulation of Spink5 expression in rat keratinocyte stem cells by using a shSpink5 mediated RNA interference approach. Interestingly, expression of TNFα and EDA1 is modified after knockdown of Spink5 by Q-PCR. Moreover, downregulation of Spink5 induces loss of cohesiveness between keratinocytes and colonies adopt a scattered phenotype. Altogether, these preliminary data suggest that downregulation of LEKTI may play a role in the inflammatory response in Netherton syndrome patients, by regulating TNFα expression.

The effectiveness of brief alcohol interventions in primary care settings: a systematic review.

Issues. Numerous studies have reported that brief interventions delivered in primary care are effective in reducing excessive drinking. However, much of this work has been criticised for being clinically unrepresentative. This review aimed to assess the effectiveness of brief interventions in primary care and determine if outcomes differ between efficacy and effectiveness trials. Approach. A pre-specified search strategy was used to search all relevant electronic databases up to 2006. We also hand-searched the reference lists of key articles and reviews. We included randomised controlled trials (RCT) involving patients in primary care who were not seeking alcohol treatment and who received brief intervention. Two authors independently abstracted data and assessed trial quality. Random effects meta-analyses, subgroup and sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were conducted. Key Findings. The primary meta-analysis included 22 RCT and evaluated outcomes in over 5800 patients. At 1 year follow up, patients receiving brief intervention had a significant reduction in alcohol consumption compared with controls [mean difference: -38 g week(-1), 95%CI (confidence interval): -54 to -23], although there was substantial heterogeneity between trials (I(2) = 57%). Subgroup analysis confirmed the benefit of brief intervention in men but not in women. Extended intervention was associated with a non-significantly increased reduction in alcohol consumption compared with brief intervention. There was no significant difference in effect sizes for efficacy and effectiveness trials. Conclusions. Brief interventions can reduce alcohol consumption in men, with benefit at a year after intervention, but they are unproven in women for whom there is insufficient research data. Longer counselling has little additional effect over brief intervention. The lack of differences in outcomes between efficacy and effectiveness trials suggests that the current literature is relevant to routine primary care.

Use of molecular probes and PCR for detection and typing of Leishmania - a mini-review

The use of molecular tools to detect and type Leishmania species in humans, reservoirs or sandflies has been pursued using different approaches. The polymerase chain reaction provided sensitivity to case this task, since the use of hybridization procedures alone employing specifics probes is hampered due to the low detection limit. In this report, we describe the different molecular targets used in our laboratory, aiming at the detection and specific typing of these protozoa. Different kits based on hybridization assays and PCR amplification using kinetoplast and nuclear targets are described and the results obtained from their use are reported.

Thirty new loci for age at menarche identified by a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies.

To identify loci for age at menarche, we performed a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies in 87,802 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,731 women. In addition to the known loci at LIN28B (P = 5.4 × 10⁻⁶⁰) and 9q31.2 (P = 2.2 × 10⁻³³), we identified 30 new menarche loci (all P < 5 × 10⁻⁸) and found suggestive evidence for a further 10 loci (P < 1.9 × 10⁻⁶). The new loci included four previously associated with body mass index (in or near FTO, SEC16B, TRA2B and TMEM18), three in or near other genes implicated in energy homeostasis (BSX, CRTC1 and MCHR2) and three in or near genes implicated in hormonal regulation (INHBA, PCSK2 and RXRG). Ingenuity and gene-set enrichment pathway analyses identified coenzyme A and fatty acid biosynthesis as biological processes related to menarche timing.

Complement facilitates early prion pathogenesis.

New-variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and scrapie are typically initiated by extracerebral exposure to the causative agent, and exhibit early prion replication in lymphoid organs. In mouse scrapie, depletion of B-lymphocytes prevents neuropathogenesis after intraperitoneal inoculation, probably due to impaired lymphotoxin-dependent maturation of follicular dendritic cells (FDCs), which are a major extracerebral prion reservoir. FDCs trap immune complexes with Fc-gamma receptors and C3d/C4b-opsonized antigens with CD21/CD35 complement receptors. We examined whether these mechanisms participate in peripheral prion pathogenesis. Depletion of circulating immunoglobulins or of individual Fc-gamma receptors had no effect on scrapie pathogenesis if B-cell maturation was unaffected. However, mice deficient in C3, C1q, Bf/C2, combinations thereof or complement receptors were partially or fully protected against spongiform encephalopathy upon intraperitoneal exposure to limiting amounts of prions. Splenic accumulation of prion infectivity and PrPSc was delayed, indicating that activation of specific complement components is involved in the initial trapping of prions in lymphoreticular organs early after infection.

On Lundh's percolation diffusion

A collection of spherical obstacles in the unit ball in Euclidean space is said to be avoidable for Brownian motion if there is a positive probability that Brownian motion diffusing from some point in the ball will avoid all the obstacles and reach the boundary of the ball. The centres of the spherical obstacles are generated according to a Poisson point process while the radius of an obstacle is a deterministic function. If avoidable configurations are generated with positive probability Lundh calls this percolation diffusion. An integral condition for percolation diffusion is derived in terms of the intensity of the point process and the function that determines the radii of the obstacles.

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.

Prolonged antiretroviral therapy initiated at seroconversion is associated with a polyfunctional HIV-1-specific T-cell profile comparable to that of long-term non-progressors (LTNPs)

Background: Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may dramatically curtail cumulative immunological damage allowing maximal levels of immune preservation/reconstitution and induce an immunovirological status similar to that of HIV-1 LTNPs with low viral reservoirs and polyfunctional HIV-1 specific T cell responses.Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of an HIV-1 seroconverter cohort on long-term ART (LTTS) and compared it to one of LTNPs. Inclusion criteria for 20 LTTS were: (a) ?4 years ART; (b) long-term aviremia and (c) absence of treatment failure and for 15 LTNPs: (a) ?7 years of documented HIV-1 infection; (b) <1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL and ?500 CD4+ T-cells/mm3 in >90% of measurements; (d) absence of AIDS-defining conditions; (e) ART-naı¨ve except for temporary ART for prevention of MTCT. In both cohorts, we analysed residual viral replication and reservoirs in peripheral blood, as measured by cellassociated HIV-1 RNA and DNA in PBMCs, respectively and used polychromatic flow cytometry to analyse HIV-1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell functional profile in terms of cytokine production using IFN-c, IL-2, TNF-a production.Results: Cell-associated DNA [47.7 (4.8-583.2) in LTTS and 19.7 (0.5-295.5) in LTNPS, p=0.10], and RNA [3.9 (0-36) and 5.8 (0-10.3), respectively] were shown to be similarly low in both cohorts. We identified 103 CD8 T cell epitope-specific responses, all subjects responding to ?1 epitope. Mean responding number of responding epitopes per patient was 2 and 4 in LTTS and LTNPS, respectively. Mean% of cytokine-secreting CD8 T cells was 0.37% and 0.50% (p=0.06), of these 43% and 39% (p=0.12) were secreting simultaneously IFN-c, IL-2 and TNF-a. Respective values for CD4 T cells were 0.28% and 0.33% (p=0.28) of which 33% and 30% (0.32) were secreting these 3 cytokines simultaneously.Conclusions: Long-term aviremia after very early ART initiation is associated with low levels of reservoirs saturation ad residual replication. Although less broad CD8 T cell responses were found in LTTS, HIV-1 specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses showed similar magnitude and functional profile in the 2 cohorts. Our results indicate that prolonged ART initiated at the time of HIV-1 seroconversion is associated with immuno-virological features which resemble those of LTNPs. (BHIVA Research Award Winner 2008: Anna Garcia-Diaz.)

Orthogonal higher order structure and confirmatory factor analysis of the French Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-III).

According to the most widely accepted Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement, each subtest score of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Adults (3rd ed.; WAIS-III) should reflect both 1st- and 2nd-order factors (i.e., 4 or 5 broad abilities and 1 general factor). To disentangle the contribution of each factor, we applied a Schmid-Leiman orthogonalization transformation (SLT) to the standardization data published in the French technical manual for the WAIS-III. Results showed that the general factor accounted for 63% of the common variance and that the specific contributions of the 1st-order factors were weak (4.7%-15.9%). We also addressed this issue by using confirmatory factor analysis. Results indicated that the bifactor model (with 1st-order group and general factors) better fit the data than did the traditional higher order structure. Models based on the CHC framework were also tested. Results indicated that a higher order CHC model showed a better fit than did the classical 4-factor model; however, the WAIS bifactor structure was the most adequate. We recommend that users do not discount the Full Scale IQ when interpreting the index scores of the WAIS-III because the general factor accounts for the bulk of the common variance in the French WAIS-III. The 4 index scores cannot be considered to reflect only broad ability because they include a strong contribution of the general factor.