Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Systemic evaluation - a contribution to Swiss development research

Systemic thinking may be traced hack to several roots. Some of them can he found in Taoism, the basic concepts of which are the achievement of cosmic harmony and a well-balanced social order. Others can be found in Greek philosophy. Similarly, modern physics in its most advanced branches is now recognizing basic aspects of these same roots in a scientific guise. The more the process of research and theory building advances, the more phenomena are recognized as complex and interdependent with other phenomena. Interdisciplinary research and the constitution of new disciplines are contributing to a scientific approximation of integral reality, which is becoming more and more like the one everyone knows as prescientific. The transcendence of the narrow boundaries of positivist sciences seems to be becoming a necessity for scientific evolution. The ecological crisis of the twentieth century may itself lead to increased systemic thinking, and it is in full awareness of the fact that there are no simple solutions that the systemic evaluator tries to cope with the problems of the dynamics of social and political interventions in the Third World as a means of development co-operation..

Evaluation of obesity interventions targeting adults in the occupational setting

The study of obesity and its causes has evolved into one of the most important public health issues in the United States (Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, 2007). Obesity is linked to several chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and some cancers (National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, 2008b) and the public health concern resides in the present morbidity and mortality associated with obesity and related conditions (National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, 1998). Furthermore, obesity and its related conditions present economic challenges to employers in terms of medical health care, sick leave, short-term disability and long-term disability benefits utilized by employees (Østbye, Dement, and Krause, 2007). Recently, articles covering intervention programs targeting obesity in the occupational setting have surfaced in the body of scientific literature. The increased interest in this area stems from the fact that employees in the United States spend more time in the work environment than many industrialized nations, including Japan and most of Western Europe (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2006). Moreover, scientific literature supports the idea of investing in healthy human capital to promote productivity and output from employees (Berger, Howell, Nicholson, & Sharda, 2003). The time spent in the work environment, the business need for healthy employees, and the public health concern create an opportunity for planning, implementation and analysis of interventions for effectiveness. This paper aims to identify those intervention programs that focus on the occupational setting related to obesity, to analyze the overall effect of diet, physical fitness and behavioral change interventions targeting overweight and obesity in the occupational setting, and to evaluate the details and effectiveness of components, such as, intervention setting, target participant group, content, industry and length of follow up. Once strengths and weaknesses of the interventions are evaluated, ideas will be suggested for implementation in the future.^

Debriefing after resuscitations in a pediatric emergency department

Multiple guidelines recommend debriefing of actual resuscitations to improve clinical performance. We implemented a novel standardized debriefing program using a Debriefing In Situ Conversation after Emergent Resuscitations Now (DISCERN) tool. Following the development of the evidence-based DISCERN tool, we conducted an observational study of all resuscitations (intubation, CPR, and/or defibrillation) at a pediatric emergency department (ED) over one year. Resuscitation interventions, patient survival, and physician team leader characteristics were analyzed as predictors for debriefing. Each debriefing's participants, time duration, and content were recorded. Thematic content of debriefings was categorized by framework approach into Team Emergency Assessment Measure (TEAM) elements. There were 241 resuscitations and 63 (26%) debriefings. A higher proportion of debriefings occurred after CPR (p<0.001) or ED death (p<0.001). Debriefing participants always included an attending and nurse; the median number of staff roles present was six. Median interval (from resuscitation end to start of debriefing) & debriefing durations were 33 (IQR 15,67) and 10 minutes (IQR 5,12), respectively. Common TEAM themes included co-operation/coordination (30%), communication (22%), and situational awareness (15%). Stated reasons for not debriefing included: unnecessary (78%), time constraints (19%), or other reasons (3%). Debriefings with the DISCERN tool usually involved higher acuity resuscitations, involved most of the indicated personnel, and lasted less than 10 minutes. This qualitative tool could be adapted to other settings. Future studies are needed to evaluate for potential impacts on education, quality improvement programming, and staff emotional well-being.^

Cooperación y conflicto entre empresas, comunidades y gobierno : nuevos movimientos sociales en el caso de Cerro de San Pedro, México

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar las relaciones de cooperación y conflicto entre una compañía minera y las comunidades, los Nuevos Movimientos Sociales y los tres niveles de gobierno involucrados. La compañía Minera inició operaciones para una mina a cielo abierto de oro y plata con el apoyo de los gobiernos locales, estatales y federal. Los habitantes de estas comunidades apoyados por grupos ambientalistas y Organizaciones No Gubernamentales argumentan que el proyecto contamina las Fuentes de agua fresca además de perturbar el medio ambiente y la ecología de la región. La metodología empleada consistió en un análisis histórico social para determinar, en un estudio exploratorio, las principales variables económicas, políticas, legales, sociales y culturales que inciden en el caso, sobre todo después de la firma del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte. Los hallazgos de esta investigación contribuyen a explicar las relaciones de cooperación y conflicto entre las empresas multinacionales que operan en las comunidades, a analizar el rol del gobierno en sus tres niveles y de los nuevos movimientos sociales en la conformación de las economías locales bajo procesos de integración económica regional. Los resultados también son de relevancia por sus contribuciones para el entendimiento de procesos de responsabilidad social corporativa de las empresas transnacionales y los procesos de contestación y acción colectiva de los nuevos movimientos sociales en el desarrollo económico y ambiental de las comunidades locales.

The increasing role of career guidance at the turn of the centuries

At the beginning this paper sketches trends of the rapid changes of nearly all life issues, especially in society, work behaviours, labour environment and demands for adjustment under new social values. As main factors which influence worldwide the economic development and the labour market are elaborated the globalization and liberalization process and the labour market aspects of feminization, ageing labour force, migration, unemployment as a global phenomenon and general changes in labour demand by occupations and skill level. A well-developed and highly qualified career guidance service is seen as one of the most effective instruments in solving these problems which are raised by the described developements. The personal and psychological effects of uncertainty and dislocation of people and the new requirements of the expected qualification standard make career guidance an important cornerstone to cope with these social aspects. Thus, the nature and structure of guidance and counselling are described under the new challenges. The international co-operation in the guidance sector has accompanied this process in delivering two important documents. The Mission Statement and the Ethical Standards of IAEVG, adopted by the General Assembly of IAEVG in 1995, show in what direction guidance services have to be developed.

Perspectivas sobre el turismo en la Comunidad Andina de Naciones : Análisis comparativo con el Mercosur

El proyecto de integración al que aspiran los países miembros de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones (can) tiene un carácter exhaustivo, que excede el ámbito de los acuerdos comerciales. En este contexto, la integración en materia de turismo ha despertado un interés creciente entre los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe, por su capacidad de generar divisas y favorecer la inversión privada, la creación de empleo, la inclusión y el encadenamiento de empresas pequeñas y comunidades locales. Asimismo, la actividad turística puede contribuir a reforzar la identidad regional y subregional de los esquemas de integración. El turismo es uno de los rubros económicos más importantes para los países en desarrollo y, a su vez, se lo reconoce como un factor que contribuye a la reducción de la pobreza y al crecimiento económico. Por ello, se lo debe considerar como una oportunidad para el desarrollo de los países de la can, sobre todo porque los miembros del bloque andino cuentan con una oferta turística diversificada compuesta por recursos naturales y culturales de gran atractivo. En el presente trabajo se analiza la evolución del flujo de turistas en los países de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones y se esboza un estudio comparativo con el bloque del mercosur. Luego, se elabora una matriz que permite observar, a primera vista, la magnitud del turismo emisivo intrarregional en ambos casos, así como determinar ciertas conclusiones a partir de los datos observados y comparados. Finalmente, se presentan algunas propuestas que los cuatro países de la CAN podrían desarrollar en el ámbito de la cooperación horizontal, en relación con la promoción conjunta y con la participación de las ciudades de la región en la red de Mercociudades

The increasing role of career guidance at the turn of the centuries

At the beginning this paper sketches trends of the rapid changes of nearly all life issues, especially in society, work behaviours, labour environment and demands for adjustment under new social values. As main factors which influence worldwide the economic development and the labour market are elaborated the globalization and liberalization process and the labour market aspects of feminization, ageing labour force, migration, unemployment as a global phenomenon and general changes in labour demand by occupations and skill level. A well-developed and highly qualified career guidance service is seen as one of the most effective instruments in solving these problems which are raised by the described developements. The personal and psychological effects of uncertainty and dislocation of people and the new requirements of the expected qualification standard make career guidance an important cornerstone to cope with these social aspects. Thus, the nature and structure of guidance and counselling are described under the new challenges. The international co-operation in the guidance sector has accompanied this process in delivering two important documents. The Mission Statement and the Ethical Standards of IAEVG, adopted by the General Assembly of IAEVG in 1995, show in what direction guidance services have to be developed.

Perspectivas sobre el turismo en la Comunidad Andina de Naciones : Análisis comparativo con el Mercosur

El proyecto de integración al que aspiran los países miembros de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones (can) tiene un carácter exhaustivo, que excede el ámbito de los acuerdos comerciales. En este contexto, la integración en materia de turismo ha despertado un interés creciente entre los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe, por su capacidad de generar divisas y favorecer la inversión privada, la creación de empleo, la inclusión y el encadenamiento de empresas pequeñas y comunidades locales. Asimismo, la actividad turística puede contribuir a reforzar la identidad regional y subregional de los esquemas de integración. El turismo es uno de los rubros económicos más importantes para los países en desarrollo y, a su vez, se lo reconoce como un factor que contribuye a la reducción de la pobreza y al crecimiento económico. Por ello, se lo debe considerar como una oportunidad para el desarrollo de los países de la can, sobre todo porque los miembros del bloque andino cuentan con una oferta turística diversificada compuesta por recursos naturales y culturales de gran atractivo. En el presente trabajo se analiza la evolución del flujo de turistas en los países de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones y se esboza un estudio comparativo con el bloque del mercosur. Luego, se elabora una matriz que permite observar, a primera vista, la magnitud del turismo emisivo intrarregional en ambos casos, así como determinar ciertas conclusiones a partir de los datos observados y comparados. Finalmente, se presentan algunas propuestas que los cuatro países de la CAN podrían desarrollar en el ámbito de la cooperación horizontal, en relación con la promoción conjunta y con la participación de las ciudades de la región en la red de Mercociudades

The increasing role of career guidance at the turn of the centuries

At the beginning this paper sketches trends of the rapid changes of nearly all life issues, especially in society, work behaviours, labour environment and demands for adjustment under new social values. As main factors which influence worldwide the economic development and the labour market are elaborated the globalization and liberalization process and the labour market aspects of feminization, ageing labour force, migration, unemployment as a global phenomenon and general changes in labour demand by occupations and skill level. A well-developed and highly qualified career guidance service is seen as one of the most effective instruments in solving these problems which are raised by the described developements. The personal and psychological effects of uncertainty and dislocation of people and the new requirements of the expected qualification standard make career guidance an important cornerstone to cope with these social aspects. Thus, the nature and structure of guidance and counselling are described under the new challenges. The international co-operation in the guidance sector has accompanied this process in delivering two important documents. The Mission Statement and the Ethical Standards of IAEVG, adopted by the General Assembly of IAEVG in 1995, show in what direction guidance services have to be developed.

Perspectivas sobre el turismo en la Comunidad Andina de Naciones : Análisis comparativo con el Mercosur

El proyecto de integración al que aspiran los países miembros de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones (can) tiene un carácter exhaustivo, que excede el ámbito de los acuerdos comerciales. En este contexto, la integración en materia de turismo ha despertado un interés creciente entre los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe, por su capacidad de generar divisas y favorecer la inversión privada, la creación de empleo, la inclusión y el encadenamiento de empresas pequeñas y comunidades locales. Asimismo, la actividad turística puede contribuir a reforzar la identidad regional y subregional de los esquemas de integración. El turismo es uno de los rubros económicos más importantes para los países en desarrollo y, a su vez, se lo reconoce como un factor que contribuye a la reducción de la pobreza y al crecimiento económico. Por ello, se lo debe considerar como una oportunidad para el desarrollo de los países de la can, sobre todo porque los miembros del bloque andino cuentan con una oferta turística diversificada compuesta por recursos naturales y culturales de gran atractivo. En el presente trabajo se analiza la evolución del flujo de turistas en los países de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones y se esboza un estudio comparativo con el bloque del mercosur. Luego, se elabora una matriz que permite observar, a primera vista, la magnitud del turismo emisivo intrarregional en ambos casos, así como determinar ciertas conclusiones a partir de los datos observados y comparados. Finalmente, se presentan algunas propuestas que los cuatro países de la CAN podrían desarrollar en el ámbito de la cooperación horizontal, en relación con la promoción conjunta y con la participación de las ciudades de la región en la red de Mercociudades

Turbulence measurements performed in the North Atlantic during the James Cook cruise JC087, March 2013

During the cruise the turbulence probe MSS050 was used for microstructure measurements. The profiler is produced by Sea and Sun Technology GmbH in co-operation with ISW Wassermesstechnik. The probe was equipped with 2 velocity microstructure shear sensors, a microstructure temperature sensor, standard CTD sensors for precision measurements, a vibration control sensor, a two component tilt sensor, a fluorescence sensor and surface detection sensor (SD) to indicate the water surface hit at rising measurements. The sampling rate for all sensors is 1024 samples per second, the resolution 16 bit. During the MSS measurements, the ship was moving with speed approx. 0.5-1.0 knots with respect to the water against the wind. In order to take into account the intermittent nature of marine turbulence, repeated MSS measurements were carried out in bursts of typically 10 profiles per station. The measurement interval was approximately 7 (10) min for a profile to 140 (200) dbar. During JC87 cruise 8 series of turbulence measurements were conducted. Fluorescence data was obtained on the 5 of them.

The Global Plankton Database: an inventory and data from the Former Soviet Union expeditions

At present time, there is a lack of knowledge on the interannual climate-related variability of zooplankton communities of the tropical Atlantic, central Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, and Aral Sea, due to the absence of appropriate databases. In the mid latitudes, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric fluctuations over eastern North America, the northern Atlantic Ocean and Europe. Therefore, one of the issues that need to be addressed through data synthesis is the evaluation of interannual patterns in species abundance and species diversity over these regions in regard to the NAO. The database has been used to investigate the ecological role of the NAO in interannual variations of mesozooplankton abundance and biomass along the zonal array of the NAO influence. Basic approach to the proposed research involved: (1) development of co-operation between experts and data holders in Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, UK, and USA to rescue and compile the oceanographic data sets and release them on CD-ROM, (2) organization and compilation of a database based on FSU cruises to the above regions, (3) analysis of the basin-scale interannual variability of the zooplankton species abundance, biomass, and species diversity.

Accident Management Actions In An Upper-Head Small-Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident With High-Pressure Safety Injection Failed

Since the Three Mile Island accident, an important focus of pressurized water reactor (PWR) transient analyses has been a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA). In 2002, the discovery of thinning of the vessel head wall at the Davis Besse nuclear power plant reactor indicated the possibility of an SBLOCA in the upper head of the reactor vessel as a result of circumferential cracking of a control rod drive mechanism penetration nozzle - which has cast even greater importance on the study of SBLOCAs. Several experimental tests have been performed at the Large Scale Test Facility to simulate the behavior of a PWR during an upper-head SBLOCA. The last of these tests, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency Rig of Safety Assessment (OECD/NEA ROSA) Test 6.1, was performed in 2005. This test was simulated with the TRACE 5.0 code, and good agreement with the experimental results was obtained. Additionally, a broad analysis of an upper-head SBLOCA with high-pressure safety injection failed in a Westinghouse PWR was performed taking into account different accident management actions and conditions in order to check their suitability. This issue has been analyzed also in the framework of the OECD/NEA ROSA project and the Code Applications and Maintenance Program (CAMP). The main conclusion is that the current emergency operating procedures for Westinghouse reactor design are adequate for these kinds of sequences, and they do not need to be modified.

Assessment of CTF boiling transition and critical heat flux modeling capabilities using the OECD/NRC BFBT and PSBT benchmark databases

The need to refine models for best-estimate calculations, based on good-quality experimental data, has been expressed in many recent meetings in the field of nuclear applications. The modeling needs arising in this respect should not be limited to the currently available macroscopic methods but should be extended to next-generation analysis techniques that focus on more microscopic processes. One of the most valuable databases identified for the thermalhydraulics modeling was developed by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC), Japan. From 1987 to 1995, NUPEC performed steady-state and transient critical power and departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) test series based on the equivalent full-size mock-ups. Considering the reliability not only of the measured data, but also other relevant parameters such as the system pressure, inlet sub-cooling and rod surface temperature, these test series supplied the first substantial database for the development of truly mechanistic and consistent models for boiling transition and critical heat flux. Over the last few years the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) under the sponsorship of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has prepared, organized, conducted and summarized the OECD/NRC Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT) Benchmark. The international benchmark activities have been conducted in cooperation with the Nuclear Energy Agency/Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (NEA/OECD) and Japan Nuclear Energy Safety (JNES) organization, Japan. Consequently, the JNES has made available the Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) NUPEC database for the purposes of the benchmark. Based on the success of the OECD/NRC BFBT benchmark the JNES has decided to release also the data based on the NUPEC Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) subchannel and bundle tests for another follow-up international benchmark entitled OECD/NRC PWR Subchannel and Bundle Tests (PSBT) benchmark. This paper presents an application of the joint Penn State University/Technical University of Madrid (UPM) version of the well-known subchannel code COBRA-TF, namely CTF, to the critical power and departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) exercises of the OECD/NRC BFBT and PSBT benchmarks