The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

South Africa and constructive engagement: lessons learned?

There has been much criticism of President Mbeki's policy of constructive engagement towards Mugabe's regime in Zimbabwe. This has grown since 2000 as the crisis has continued to worsen. This article compares Pretoria's current approach with the Reagan administration's constructive engagement towards Pretoria in the 1980s. Washington made a number of significant mistakes in the design and implementation of this policy and each of these is examined. An investigation of Mbeki's actions concludes that he is currently committing many of the same errors. Not only does this damage Mbeki's credibility, it also damages the credibility of a vital diplomatic tool - reducing constructive engagement once again to a diplomatic fig leaf to cover 'business as usual' with a rogue state.

Adaptive social protection: mapping the evidence and policy context in the agriculture sector in south Asia

An aim of government and the international community is to respond to global processes and crises through a range of policy and practical approaches that help limit damage from shocks and stresses. Three approaches to vulnerability reduction that have become particularly prominent in recent years are social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Although these approaches have much in common, they have developed separately over the last two decades. However, given the increasingly complex and interlinked array of risks that poor and vulnerable people face, it is likely that they will not be sufficient in the long run if they continue to be applied in isolation from one another. In recognition of this challenge, the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has been developed. ASP refers to a series of measures which aims to build resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people to climate change by combining elements of SP, DRR and CCA in programmes and projects. The aim of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of the ways in which these elements are being brought together in development policy and practice. It does this by conducting a meta-analysis of 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in south Asia. These are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The findings show that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA is relatively limited in south Asia, although there has been significant progress in combining SP and DRR in the last ten years. Projects that combine elements of SP, DRR and CCA tend to emphasise broad poverty and vulnerability reduction goals relative to those that do not. Such approaches can provide valuable lessons and insights for the promotion of climate resilient livelihoods amongst policymakers and practitioners.

The new localism, anti-political development machines, and the role of planning consultants: lessons from London's South Bank

This paper draws on a study of the politics of development planning in London’s South Bank to examine wider trends in the governance of contemporary cities. It assesses the impacts and outcomes of so-called new localist reforms and argues that we are witnessing two principal trends. First, governance processes are increasingly dominated by anti-democratic development machines, characterized by new assemblages of public- and private-sector experts. These machines reflect and reproduce a type of development politics in which there is a greater emphasis on a pragmatic realism and a politics of delivery. Second, the presence of these machines is having a significant impact on the politics of planning. Democratic engagement is not seen as the basis for new forms of localism and community control. Instead, it is presented as a potentially disruptive force that needs to be managed by a new breed of skilled private-sector consultant. The paper examines these wider shifts in urban politics before focusing on the connections between emerging development machines and local residential and business communities. It ends by highlighting some of the wider implications of change for democratic modes of engagement and nodes of resistance in urban politics.

Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

What is Carbon? Conceptualising carbon and capabilities in the context of community sequestration projects in the global South

Carbon has been described as a ‘surreal commodity’. Whilst carbon trading, storage, sequestration and emissions have become a part of the contemporary climate lexicon, how carbon is understood, valued and interpreted by actors responsible for implementing carbon sequestration projects is still unclear. In this review paper, we are concerned with how carbon has come to take on a range of meanings, and in particular, we appraise what is known about the situated meanings that people involved in delivering, and participating in, carbon sequestration projects in the global South assign to this complex element. Whilst there has been some reflection on the new meanings conferred on carbon via the neoliberal processes of marketisation, and how these processes interact with historical and contemporary narratives of environmental change, less is known about how these meanings are (re)produced and (re)interpreted locally. We review how carbon has been defined both as a chemical element and as a tradable, marketable commodity, and discuss the implications these global meanings might have for situated understandings, particularly linked to climate change narratives, amongst communities in the global South. We consider how the concept of carbon capabilities, alongside theoretical notions of networks, assemblages and local knowledges of the environment and nature, might be useful in beginning to understand how communities engage with abstract notions of carbon. We discuss the implications of specific values attributed to carbon, and therefore to different ecologies, for wider conceptualisations of how nature is valued, and climate is understood, and particularly how this may impact on community interactions with carbon sequestration projects. Knowing more about how people understand, value and know carbon allows policies to be better informed and practices more effectively targeted at engaging local populations meaningfully in carbon-related projects.

A multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and possible causes

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, water cycle and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this study, the spatio-temporal aerosol distributions over South Asia from seven global aerosol models are evaluated against aerosol retrievals from NASA satellite sensors and ground-based measurements for the period of 2000–2007. Overall, substantial underestimations of aerosol loading over South Asia are found systematically in most model simulations. Averaged over the entire South Asia, the annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is underestimated by a range 15 to 44% across models compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), which is the lowest bound among various satellite AOD retrievals (from MISR, SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra). In particular during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods (i.e., October–January), when agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic emissions dominate, models fail to capture AOD and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) compared to ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometer measurements. The underestimations of aerosol loading in models generally occur in the lower troposphere (below 2 km) based on the comparisons of aerosol extinction profiles calculated by the models with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. Furthermore, surface concentrations of all aerosol components (sulfate, nitrate, organic aerosol (OA) and black carbon (BC)) from the models are found much lower than in situ measurements in winter. Several possible causes for these common problems of underestimating aerosols in models during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods are identified: the aerosol hygroscopic growth and formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are suppressed in the models because relative humidity (RH) is biased far too low in the boundary layer and thus foggy conditions are poorly represented in current models, the nitrate aerosol is either missing or inadequately accounted for, and emissions from agricultural waste burning and biofuel usage are too low in the emission inventories. These common problems and possible causes found in multiple models point out directions for future model improvements in this important region.

The development of soil organic matter in restored biodiverse Jarrah forests of South-Western Australia as determined by ASE and GCMS

Background, aim and scope Soil organic matter (SOM) is known to increase with time as landscapes recover after a major disturbance; however, little is known about the evolution of the chemistry of SOM in reconstructed ecosystems. In this study, we assessed the development of SOM chemistry in a chronosequence (space for time substitution) of restored Jarrah forest sites in Western Australia. Materials and methods Replicated samples were taken at the surface of the mineral soil as well as deeper in the profile at sites of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 years of age. A molecular approach was developed to distinguish and quantify numerous individual compounds in SOM. This used accelerated solvent extraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry. A novel multivariate statistical approach was used to assess changes in accelerated solvent extraction (ASE)-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GCMS) spectra. This enabled us to track SOM developmental trajectories with restoration time. Results Results showed total carbon concentrations approached that of native forests soils by 17 years of restoration. Using the relate protocol in PRIMER, we demonstrated an overall linear relationship with site age at both depths, indicating that changes in SOM chemistry were occurring. Conclusions The surface soils were seen to approach native molecular compositions while the deeper soil retained a more stable chemical signature, suggesting litter from the developing diverse plant community has altered SOM near the surface. Our new approach for assessing SOM development, combining ASE-GCMS with illuminating multivariate statistical analysis, holds great promise to more fully develop ASE for the characterisation of SOM.

Soil carbon and litter development along a reconstructed biodiverse forest chronosequence of South-Western Australia

Soil organic matter (SOM) increases with time as landscape is restored. Studying SOM development along restored forest chronosequences would be useful in clarifying some of the uncertainties in quantifying C turnover rates with respect to forest clearance and ensuing restoration. The development of soil organic matter in the mineral soils was studied at four depths in a 16-year-old restored jarrah forest chronosequence. The size-separated SOM fractionation along with δ13C isotopic shift was utilised to resolve the soil C temporal and spatial changes with developing vegetation. The restored forest chronosequence revealed several important insights into how soil C is developing with age. Litter accumulation outpaced the native forest levels in 12 years after restoration. The surface soils, in general, showed increase in total C with age, but this trend was not clearly observed at lower depths. C accumulation was observed with increasing restoration age in all three SOM size-fractions in the surface 0–2 cm depth. These biodiverse forests show a trend towards accumulating C in recalcitrant stable forms, but only in the surface 0–2 cm mineral soil. A significant reverse trend was observed for the moderately labile SOM fraction for lower depths with increasing restoration age. Correlating the soil δ13C with total C concentration revealed the re-establishment of the isotopically depleted labile to enriched refractory C continuum with soil depth for the older restored sites. This implied that from a pedogenic perspective, the restored soils are developing towards the original native soil carbon profile.

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25 km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble

The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25 km horizontal resolution for 150 years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44 % decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53 % in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10 m wind speed > 35 m/s) was found to increase by 3-9 %. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation.