Recurrence interval statistics of cellular automaton seismicity models

The recurrence interval statistics for regional seismicity follows a universal distribution function, independent of the tectonic setting or average rate of activity (Corral, 2004). The universal function is a modified gamma distribution with power-law scaling of recurrence intervals shorter than the average rate of activity and exponential decay for larger intervals. We employ the method of Corral (2004) to examine the recurrence statistics of a range of cellular automaton earthquake models. The majority of models has an exponential distribution of recurrence intervals, the same as that of a Poisson process. One model, the Olami-Feder-Christensen automaton, has recurrence statistics consistent with regional seismicity for a certain range of the conservation parameter of that model. For conservation parameters in this range, the event size statistics are also consistent with regional seismicity. Models whose dynamics are dominated by characteristic earthquakes do not appear to display universality of recurrence statistics.

Unsafe driving behaviour and four wheel drive vehicles: observational study

Objective To assess the level of compliance with the new law in the United Kingdom mandating penalties for rising a hand held mobile phone while driving, to compare compliance with this law with the one on the use of seat belts, and to compare compliance with these laws between drivers of four wheel drive vehicles and drivers of normal cars. Design Observational study with two phases-one within the grace period, the other starting one week after penalties were imposed on drivers using such telephones. Setting Three busy sites in London. Participants Drivers of 38 182 normal cars and 2944 four wheel drive vehicles. Main outcome measures Proportions of drivers seen to be using hand held mobile phones and not using seat belts. Results Drivers of four wheel drive vehicles were more likely than drivers of other cars to be seen using hand held mobile phones (8.2% v 2.0%) and not complying with the law on seat belts (19.5% v 15.0%). Levels of non-compliance with both laws were slightly higher in the penalty phase of observation, and breaking one law was associated with increased likelihood of breaking the other. Conclusions The level of non-compliance with the law on the use of hand held mobile phones by drivers in London is high, as is non-compliance with the law on seat belts. Drivers of four wheel drive vehicles were four times more likely than drivers of other cars to be seen using hand held mobile phones and slightly more likely not to comply with the law on seat belts.