Mathematical solutions for electricity networks in a low carbon future

Smart meters are becoming more ubiquitous as governments aim to reduce the risks to the energy supply as the world moves toward a low carbon economy. The data they provide could create a wealth of information to better understand customer behaviour. However at the household, and even the low voltage (LV) substation level, energy demand is extremely volatile, irregular and noisy compared to the demand at the high voltage (HV) substation level. Novel analytical methods will be required in order to optimise the use of household level data. In this paper we briefly outline some mathematical techniques which will play a key role in better understanding the customer's behaviour and create solutions for supporting the network at the LV substation level.

A peak reduction scheduling algorithm for storage devices on the low voltage network

Reinforcing the Low Voltage (LV) distribution network will become essential to ensure it remains within its operating constraints as demand on the network increases. The deployment of energy storage in the distribution network provides an alternative to conventional reinforcement. This paper presents a control methodology for energy storage to reduce peak demand in a distribution network based on day-ahead demand forecasts and historical demand data. The control methodology pre-processes the forecast data prior to a planning phase to build in resilience to the inevitable errors between the forecasted and actual demand. The algorithm uses no real time adjustment so has an economical advantage over traditional storage control algorithms. Results show that peak demand on a single phase of a feeder can be reduced even when there are differences between the forecasted and the actual demand. In particular, results are presented that demonstrate when the algorithm is applied to a large number of single phase demand aggregations that it is possible to identify which of these aggregations are the most suitable candidates for the control methodology.

A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Population ecology of the Asian house rat (Rattus tanezumi) in complex lowland agroecosystems in the Philippines

Context. Rattus tanezumi (the Asian house rat) is the principal rodent pest of rice and coconut crops in the Philippines. Little is known about the population and breeding ecology of R. tanezumi in complex agroecosystems; thus, current methods of rodent control may be inappropriate or poorly implemented. Aims. To investigate the habitat use, population dynamics and breeding biology of R. tanezumi in complex lowland agroecosystems of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor, Luzon, and to develop ecologically based rodent management (EBRM) strategies that will target specific habitats at specific times to improve cost-efficiency and minimise non-target risks. Methods. An 18-month trapping study was conducted in rice monoculture, rice adjacent to coconut, coconut groves, coconut-based agroforest and forest habitats. Trapped animals were measured, marked and assessed for breeding condition. Key results. Five species of rodent were captured across all habitats with R. tanezumi the major pest species in both the rice and coconut crops. The stage of the rice crop was a major factor influencing the habitat use and breeding biology of R. tanezumi. In rice fields, R. tanezumi abundance was highest during the tillering to ripening stages of the rice crop and lowest during the seedling stage, whereas in coconut groves abundance was highest from the seedling to tillering stage of nearby rice crops. Peaks in breeding activity occurred from the booting stage of the rice crop until just after harvest, but >10% of females were in breeding condition at each month of the year. Conclusions. In contrast with the practices applied by rice farmers in the study region, the most effective time for lethal management based on the breeding ecology of R. tanezumi is likely to be during the early stages of the rice crop, before the booting stage. Farmers generally apply control actions as individuals. We recommend coordinated community action. Continuous breeding throughout the year may necessitate two community campaigns per rice cropping season. To limit population growth, the most effective time to reduce nesting habitat is from the booting stage until harvest. Implications. By adopting EBRM strategies, we expect a reduction in costs associated with rodent control, as well as improved yield and reduced risk to non-target species.

Can a native rodent species limit the invasive potential of a non-native rodent species in tropical agroforest habitats?

BACKGROUND Little is known about native and non-native rodent species interactions in complex tropical agro-ecosystems. We hypothesised that the native non-pest rodent Rattus everetti may be competitively dominant over the invasive pest rodent Rattus tanezumi within agroforests. We tested this experimentally by using pulse removal for three consecutive months to reduce populations of R. everetti in agroforest habitat and assessed over 6-months the response of R. tanezumi and other rodent species. RESULTS Following removal, R. everetti individuals rapidly immigrated into removal sites. At the end of the study period, R. tanezumi were larger and there was a significant shift in their microhabitat use with respect to the use of ground vegetation cover following the perturbation of R. everetti. Irrespective of treatment, R. tanezumi selected microhabitat with less tree canopy cover, indicative of severely disturbed habitat, whereas, R. everetti selected microhabitat with a dense canopy. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that sustained habitat disturbance in agroforests favours R. tanezumi, whilst the regeneration of agroforests towards a more natural state would favour native species and may reduce pest pressure in adjacent crops. In addition, the rapid recolonisation of R. everetti suggests this species would be able to recover from non-target impacts of short-term rodent pest control.

Analysis and clustering of residential customers energy behavioral demand using smart meter data

Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.

Gender and the business cycle: an analysis of labour markets in the US and UK

Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained by a less cyclical response of flows between employment and unemployment for women, especially the entry into unemployment. Across gender and country, the inactivity rate is generally not sensitive to the state of the economy. However, a flows based analysis reveals a greater importance of the participation margin over the cycle. Changes in the rates of flow between unemployment and inactivity can each account for around 0.8-1.1 percentage points of the rise in US male and female unemployment rates during the latest downturn. For the UK, although the participation flow to unemployment similarly contributed to the increase of the female unemployment rate, this was not the case for men. The countercyclical flow rate from inactivity to employment was also more significant for women, especially in the US, where it accounted for approximately all of the fall in employment, compared with only 40% for men.

Genetic and phenotypic characterization of complex hereditary spastic paraplegia

The hereditary spastic paraplegias are a heterogeneous group of degenerative disorders that are clinically classified as either pure with predominant lower limb spasticity, or complex where spastic paraplegia is complicated with additional neurological features, and are inherited in autosomal dominant, autosomal recessive or X-linked patterns. Genetic defects have been identified in over 40 different genes, with more than 70 loci in total. Complex recessive spastic paraplegias have in the past been frequently associated with mutations in SPG11 (spatacsin), ZFYVE26/SPG15, SPG7 (paraplegin) and a handful of other rare genes, but many cases remain genetically undefined. The overlap with other neurodegenerative disorders has been implied in a small number of reports, but not in larger disease series. This deficiency has been largely due to the lack of suitable high throughput techniques to investigate the genetic basis of disease, but the recent availability of next generation sequencing can facilitate the identification of disease- causing mutations even in extremely heterogeneous disorders. We investigated a series of 97 index cases with complex spastic paraplegia referred to a tertiary referral neurology centre in London for diagnosis or management. The mean age of onset was 16 years (range 3 to 39). The SPG11 gene was first analysed, revealing homozygous or compound heterozygous mutations in 30/97 (30.9%) of probands, the largest SPG11 series reported to date, and by far the most common cause of complex spastic paraplegia in the UK, with severe and progressive clinical features and other neurological manifestations, linked with magnetic resonance imaging defects. Given the high frequency of SPG11 mutations, we studied the autophagic response to starvation in eight affected SPG11 cases and control fibroblast cell lines, but in our restricted study we did not observe correlations between disease status and autophagic or lysosomal markers. In the remaining cases, next generation sequencing was carried out revealing variants in a number of other known complex spastic paraplegia genes, including five in SPG7 (5/97), four in FA2H (also known as SPG35) (4/97) and two in ZFYVE26/SPG15. Variants were identified in genes usually associated with pure spastic paraplegia and also in the Parkinson’s disease-associated gene ATP13A2, neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis gene TPP1 and the hereditary motor and sensory neuropathy DNMT1 gene, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of spastic paraplegia. No plausible genetic cause was identified in 51% of probands, likely indicating the existence of as yet unidentified genes.

In the mood: the dynamics of collective sentiments on Twitter

We study the relationship between the sentiment levels of Twitter users and the evolving network structure that the users created by @-mentioning each other. We use a large dataset of tweets to which we apply three sentiment scoring algorithms, including the open source SentiStrength program. Specifically we make three contributions. Firstly we find that people who have potentially the largest communication reach (according to a dynamic centrality measure) use sentiment differently than the average user: for example they use positive sentiment more often and negative sentiment less often. Secondly we find that when we follow structurally stable Twitter communities over a period of months, their sentiment levels are also stable, and sudden changes in community sentiment from one day to the next can in most cases be traced to external events affecting the community. Thirdly, based on our findings, we create and calibrate a simple agent-based model that is capable of reproducing measures of emotive response comparable to those obtained from our empirical dataset.

Mitochondrial DNA Diversity of Orchid Bee Euglossa fimbriata (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Populations Assessed by PCR-RFLP

Euglossa fimbriata is a euglossine species widely distributed in Brazil and occurring primarily in Atlantic Forest remnants. In this study, the genetic mitochondrial structure of E. fimbriata from six Atlantic Forest fragments was studied by RFLP analysis of three PCR-amplified mtDNA gene segments (16S, COI-COII, and cyt b). Ten composite haplotypes were identified, six of which were exclusive and represented singleton mitotypes. Low haplotype diversity (0.085-0.289) and nucleotide diversity (0.000-0.002) were detected within samples. AMOVA partitioned 91.13% of the overall genetic variation within samples and 8.87% (I center dot(st) = 0.089; P < 0.05) among samples. Pairwise comparisons indicated high levels of differentiation among some pairs of samples (I center dot(st) = 0.161-0.218; P < 0.05). These high levels indicate that these populations of E. fimbriata, despite their highly fragmented landscape, apparently have not suffered loss of genetic variation, suggesting that this particular population is not currently endangered.

Multicenter Analysis of Glucocerebrosidase Mutations in Parkinson`s Disease

Background Recent studies indicate an increased frequency of mutations in the gene encoding glucocerebrosidase (GBA), a deficiency of which causes Gaucher`s disease, among patients with Parkinson`s disease. We aimed to ascertain the frequency of GBA mutations in an ethnically diverse group of patients with Parkinson`s disease. Methods Sixteen centers participated in our international, collaborative study: five from the Americas, six from Europe, two from Israel, and three from Asia. Each center genotyped a standard DNA panel to permit comparison of the genotyping results across centers. Genotypes and phenotypic data from a total of 5691 patients with Parkinson`s disease (780 Ashkenazi Jews) and 4898 controls (387 Ashkenazi Jews) were analyzed, with multivariate logistic-regression models and the Mantel-Haenszel procedure used to estimate odds ratios across centers. Results All 16 centers could detect two GBA mutations, L444P and N370S. Among Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 15% of patients and 3% of controls, and among non-Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 3% of patients and less than 1% of controls. GBA was fully sequenced for 1883 non-Ashkenazi Jewish patients, and mutations were identified in 7%, showing that limited mutation screening can miss half the mutant alleles. The odds ratio for any GBA mutation in patients versus controls was 5.43 across centers. As compared with patients who did not carry a GBA mutation, those with a GBA mutation presented earlier with the disease, were more likely to have affected relatives, and were more likely to have atypical clinical manifestations. Conclusions Data collected from 16 centers demonstrate that there is a strong association between GBA mutations and Parkinson`s disease.

1985-1986 Yearbook

TOC: Life at LaGuardia…3/ LaGuardia At Work…11/College-Wide Activities…20/Mayor LaGuardia…26/Martin Luther King…28/Statue of Liberty…30/Activities and Trips…33/Recreation…52/Student Government and Clubs…56/Faculty and Staff…64/Letters to Graduates…83/Class ’85…87/Class ’86…115/Dedication to the Challenger…156/Boosters and Ads…158 Yearbook Committee: Project Director, VINCENT BANREY; Asst. Project Director, CATHY WHAN; Editor-in-Chief, MARGARET NEISS; Layout Editor, HORACIO OWENS; Asst. Layout Editor, MARICRUZ SAUNDERS; Copy Editor/Captain Editor, UMOJA KWANGUVU; Typesetter, EDWARD HOLLINS; Cover Artist, DAVID VAZQUEZ; End Sheets Photo, YOUNG BAEK CHOI; Finance Manager, GEORGE BERMUDEZ; Photographers: HORACIO OWENS, MARINA DIAZ, MARGARET NEISS, LORI GEORGE, RANDY FADER SMITH, UMOJA KWANGUVU, JUAN SEGARRA, PETER ABBATE, CLASSIC STUDIO; Production Staff: HORACIO OWENS, MARGARET NEISS, MARINA DIAZ, UMOJA KWANGUVU, MARICRUZ SAUNDERS, IRENE LEBRON, ARLENE BANREY, QUAALAN SAMUELS, MAYRA ALDONADO, CATHY WHAN, RAVI RAMDASS, GEORGE BERMUDEZ, BLANCA ARBITO, EDWARD HOLLINS, BRIDGET DAVIS; Feature Writers: YVONNE CANNON AND HARRIET ASCHOFF ("LaGuardia at Work"); GEORGE BERMUDEZ ("Mayor LaGuardia, A Civil Rights Political Leader"); SCOTT ENGEL ("Statue Of Liberty"); JEFFREY DAVIS ("Tribute to Ron Miller"); MARICRUZ SAUNDERS ("Challengers"); CASSANDRA WILLIAMS ("King: The Vision and the Fulfillment").

Probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures do mercado brasileiro

O trabalho busca através de um exercício empírico, extrair as curvas de probabilidade implícita de default em debêntures brasileiras. A construção ocorre em duas etapas. O primeiro desafio é obter as estruturas a termo das debêntures brasileiras. Foi utilizada a revisão proposta por Diebold e Li (2006) do modelo de Nelson Siegel (1987) para construç o das ETTJs. A segunda etapa consiste em extrair a probabilidade de default utilizado a forma reduzida do modelo de Duffie e Singleton (1999). A fração de perda em caso de default foi considerada constante conforme estudo de Xu e Nencioni (2000). A taxa de decaimento também foi mantida constante conforme proposto por Diebold e Li (2006) e Araújo (2012). O exercício foi replicado para três datas distintas durante o ciclo de redução de juros no Brasil. Dentre os resultados desse estudo identificou-se que os agentes do mercado reduziram a probabilidade de default dos emissores durante esse período. A redução nos vértices mais curtos foi mais significativa do que em vértices mais longos.

Impondo mais restrições ao modelo de apreçamento vetorial com séries temporais

Este Trabalho se Dedica ao exercício empírico de gerar mais restrições ao modelo de apreçamento de ativos com séries temporais desenvolvido por Hansen e Singleton JPE 1983. As restrições vão, desde um simples aumento qualitativo nos ativos estudados até uma extensão teórica proposta a partir de um estimador consistente do fator estocástico de desconto. As estimativas encontradas para a aversão relativa ao risco do agente representativo estão dentro do esperado, na maioria dos casos, já que atingem valores já encontrados na literatura além do fato destes valores serem economicamente plausíveis. A extensão teórica proposta não atingiu resultados esperados, parecendo melhorar a estimação do sistema marginalmente.