社会形势预警的几种建模方法比较

Based on social survey data conducted by local research group in some counties executed in the nearly past five years in China, the author proposed and solved two kernel problems in the field of social situation forecasting: i) How can the attitudes’ data on individual level be integrated with social situation data on macrolevel; ii) How can the powers of forecasting models’ constructed by different statistic methods be compared? Five integrative statistics were applied to the research: 1) algorithm average (MEAN); 2) standard deviation (SD); 3) coefficient variability (CV); 4) mixed secondary moment (M2); 5) Tendency (TD). To solve the former problem, the five statistics were taken to synthesize the individual and mocrolevel data of social situations on the levels of counties’ regions, and form novel integrative datasets, from the basis of which, the latter problem was accomplished by the author: modeling methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), Discriminant Analysis (DA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to construct several forecasting models. Meanwhile, on the dimensions of stepwise vs. enter, short-term vs. long-term forecasting and different integrative (statistic) models, meta-analysis and power analysis were taken to compare the predicting power of each model within and among modeling methods. Finally, it can be concluded from the research of the dissertation: 1) Exactly significant difference exists among different integrative (statistic) models, in which, tendency (TD) integrative models have the highest power, but coefficient variability (CV) ones have the lowest; 2) There is no significant difference of the power between stepwise and enter models as well as short-term and long-term forecasting models; 3) There is significant difference among models constructed by different methods, of which, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest statistic power. This research founded basis in all facets for exploring the optimal forecasting models of social situation’s more deeply, further more, it is the first time methods of meta-analysis and power analysis were immersed into the assessments of such forecasting models.

中学生强迫症状及其心理、环境危险因素和整合模型研究

Obsessive-Compulsive Symptoms, which are one of common factors effected on mental health of secondary school students, have been rarely studied at home and abroad. In accordance with the problems existed in these literature up till now, the thesis had mainly studied the measured tool, contents and structure, developmental features, psychosocial risk factors and integrated model of obsessive-compulsive symptoms from them by means of investigation with quetionnaires. The entire research was divided into three phases. 3185 students(age 14.68±1.75 years) were firstly measured with the 20-item Leyton Obsessional Inventory-Child Version(LOI-CV) at four secondary schools including six grades in Beijing city, which was applied to revise LOI-CV, and to study the structure and contents, developmental features and screen of obsessive-compulsive symptoms. Then, 216 subjects with obsessive-compulsive symptoms, paired with controls in the light of school, grade and gender, were investigated with 10 self-rating scales on obsessive-compulsive symptoms, anxiety, depression, personality, coping and attributional style, negative life events, parent's rearing style, family environment and life adaptation in school, and with an inventory on social demography. The results were used to explore psychosocial risk factors and integrated model of obsessive-compulsive symptoms. The third survey was only carried out, about two months after the second, among 264 subjects with obsessive-compulsive symptoms through MMOCI and Negative Life Event Scale for Adolescents, in order to probe into the integrated model. The research had mainly found: (1) LOI-CV can be used as a screen tool for obsessive-compulsive symptoms in urban adolescents in China; (2) Total screening-out ratio of obsessive-compulsive symptoms was 13.6% (male:15.0%, female:12.2%). The most common manifestations of obsessive-compulsive symptoms were hating dirt and contamination, doing things in exact manner, angry if someone messes desk, bad conscience but no one else, worry about cleanliness, repeated thoughts or words; the least were favorite or special number, spending extra time on homework, special number or words to avoid, talking or moving to avoid bad luck, fussy about hands. The checking and repetition, cleanliness and tidiness, general obsessions were more common forms than numbers-luck; (3) No differences were existed in serious degree of obsessive-compulsive symptoms, but the screening-out ratio in male was higher than it in female; (4) No differences were detected in the serious degree of obsessive-compulsive symptoms except the scores of cleanliness and tidiness among grades, but the screening-out ratio of the grades justly entering secondary school or going to graduate were higher than other ones; (5) The main psychosocial risk factors for obsessive-compulsive symptoms included anxiety, mother's over-protecting and over-interfering, fantasy, flexibility, self-actualization, peers relationship, sense of responsibility, negative life events, mother's occupation, help-seeking, and (6) The integrated model on psychosocial risk factors suggested that the possible developed and sustained mechanism of obsessive-compulsive symptoms was that personality, coping and attributional styles constructed the developmental diathesis foundation of obsessive-compulsive symptoms; negative life events were promoting factors of them. There was a dynamic interaction between personality and environmental factors. Negative emotion played a core role in the developmental process of them. The continued existence of obsessive-compulsive symptoms was related to pre-existed obsessive-compulsive symptoms and negative life events experienced by an individual. Therefore, this research not only let us get a deeper understanding of obsessive-compulsive symptoms and more entirely find out psychosocial risk factors, firstly applied diathesis-stress theory to comprehend the psychological mechanism of obsessive-compulsive symptoms and, moreover, elaborate and expand it, but also has more important practice significance of treatment, prevent and education for obsessive-compulsive symptoms in secondary school students.

Uso de marcadores RAPD na identificação de híbridos de Brachiaria humidicola.

Brachiaria humidicola é uma importante gramínea forrageira tropical de origem africana, tolerante a solos maldrenados ou temporariamente alagados. No Brasil, somente três cultivares foram registradas no Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento, e destas, apenas duas estão disponíveis no mercado, o que demanda o desenvolvimento de novas cultivares. O programa de melhoramento da Embrapa Gado de Corte baseia-se em cruzamentos e seleção de genótipos mais produtivos. Recentemente, foi identificado um acesso sexual e tetraplóide natural (H31) no banco de germoplasma dessa espécie, que permitiu a realização de cruzamentos controlados com Brachiaria humidicola cv. BRS Tupi, gerando uma população única em todo o mundo tropical. O objetivo deste trabalho foi a identificação segura e precoce de híbridos dessa população usando marcadores RAPD. Dez primers que amplificaram 31 bandas informativas, exclusivas do genitor paterno, foram usados para analisar as 347 plantas dessa população. Por esses marcadores RAPD, 286 plantas foram confirmadas como híbridas e 61 foram não híbridas, que podem resultar de autopolinização da planta sexual. A identificação precoce de híbridos torna o programa de melhoramento mais eficiente, reduzindo o tempo e o trabalho necessários para o desenvolvimento de novas cultivares.

Variabilidade genética em acessos e cultivares de quatro espécies de Brachiaria estimada por marcadores RAPD.

A importância do gênero Brachiaria para o desenvolvimento da pecuária nas regiões tropicais e subtropicais é notória. Brachiaria brizantha, Brachiaria decumbens, Brachiaria ruziziensis e Brachiaria humidicola estão entre as principais espécies utilizadas como forrageiras e fazem parte do programa de melhoramento da Embrapa Gado de Corte. Neste trabalho, a técnica de Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) foi utilizada para estimar a variabilidade genética em 14 genótipos dessas quatro espécies, incluindo cultivares e acessos utilizados como genitores em cruzamentos inter e intra-específicos. Foram utilizados 47 primers que amplificaram 396 bandas, escoradas como "1" para presença e "0" para ausência, e uma matriz de similaridade genética foi construída usando o coeficiente de Jaccard. Os valores de similaridade genética variaram de 0,49 a 0,87, dos quais os acessos mais similares (C48 e B105) pertencem à mesma espécie, B. brizantha. As cultivares B. brizantha cv. Marandu e B. humidicola cv. BRS Tupi foram as mais divergentes. As análises de agrupamento obtidas pelos métodos Unweighted Pair-group Method with Arithmetical Average (UPGMA) e de Tocher foram similares, dividindo os acessos em quatro grupos que correspondem às espécies estudadas. O dendrograma obtido com o método UPGMA mostrou que B. brizantha, B. decumbens e B. ruziziensis são geneticamente mais próximas entre si do que B. humidicola. Além disso, este trabalho possibilitou a identificação de primers que podem ser utilizados com a finalidade de identificação precoce de híbridos quando esses genótipos forem utilizados como genitores.

Círculo de hospedeiras de isolados de Verticillium dahliae obtidos de tomteiro, quiabeiro e morangueiro.

O gênero Verticillium apresenta duas importantes espécies de fitopatógenos (V. dahliae e V. albo-atrum). A capacidade de produção de microescleródios dos isolados de V. dahliae em cultura tem sido empregada como a principal característica para distinção destas duas espécies. Verticillium dahliae é um fungo bastante polífago, amplamente disseminado no território brasileiro, causando murcha vascular em tomate, berinjela, jiló, algodão, morango, cacau, quiabo, dentre outras hospedeiras. Verticillium dahliae apresenta especialização fisiológica em tomateiro tendo sido descritas duas raças. O presente trabalho teve por objetivo investigar a capacidade de isolados de V. dahliae em infectar e causar doença em plantas de diversas famílias botânicas. Para avaliação da gama de hospedeiros, quatro isolados do fungo foram inoculados em 62 acessos de 54 espécies em 40 gêneros e 18 famílias botânicas. A maioria dos acessos mostrou-se susceptível ao patógeno. Foram classificadas como plantas não-hospedeiras todas as gramíneas avaliadas, as solanáceas Datura stramonium, Nicandra physaloides e Physalis ?oridana, couve-flor (linhagem CNPH-003), melancia (cv. Crimson Sweet), melão (cv. Eldorado 300) alface (cvs. Regina e Robinson), cenoura, feijão, soja-verde, beterraba, maracujá azedo (Passi?ora edulis), capuchinha (Trapaeolum majus) e cariru (Talinum triangulare). Foram identificadas 27 novas hospedeiras experimentais de V. dahliae.

Possibilidade de controle da murcha de Fusarium do tomateiro com isolados de Fusarium oxysporum não patogênico.

O trabalho teve por objetivo verificar o efeito dos isolados de Fusarium oxysporum não patogênicos (143/1, 233, 233/1, 245, 245/1, 251, 251/2 e 257) no controle da murcha de Fusarium causada por Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici, raça 2 (isolados C-21A, TO11 e TO245) em plântulas de tomateiro cv. Viradoro. O sistema radicular de plântulas de tomateiro, com 30 dias de idade, foi imerso na suspensão de inóculo dos isolados de F. oxysporum não patogênicos na concentração de 106 conídios mL-1 e em seguida as mudas foram transplantadas para substrato de cultivo.

Meta-Rules: Reasoning About Control

How can we insure that knowledge embedded in a program is applied effectively? Traditionally the answer to this question has been sought in different problem solving paradigms and in different approaches to encoding and indexing knowledge. Each of these is useful with a certain variety of problem, but they all share a common problem: they become ineffective in the face of a sufficiently large knowledge base. How then can we make it possible for a system to continue to function in the face of a very large number of plausibly useful chunks of knowledge? In response to this question we propose a framework for viewing issues of knowledge indexing and retrieval, a framework that includes what appears to be a useful perspective on the concept of a strategy. We view strategies as a means of controlling invocation in situations where traditional selection mechanisms become ineffective. We examine ways to effect such control, and describe meta-rules, a means of specifying strategies which offers a number of advantages. We consider at some length how and when it is useful to reason about control, and explore the advantages meta-rules offer for doing this.

Instability of anthocyanin accumulation in Vitis vinifera L. var. Gamay Freaux suspension cultures

The inherent instability of metabolite production in plant cell culture-based bioprocessing is a major problem hindering its commercialization. To understand the extent and causes of this instability, this study was aimed at understanding the variability of anthocyanin accumulation during long-term subcultures, as well as within subculture batches, in Vitis vinifera cell cultures. Therefore, four cell line suspensions of Vitis vinitera L. var. Gamay Freaux, A, B, C and D, originated from the same callus by cell-aggregate cloning, were established with starting anthocyanin contents of 2.73 +/- 0.15, 1.45 +/- 0.04, 0.77 +/- 0.024 and 0.27 +/- 0.04 CV (Color Value)/g-FCW (fresh cell weight), respectively. During weekly subculturing of 33 batches over 8 months, the anthocyanin biosynthetic capacity was gradually lost at various rates, for all four cell lines, regardless of the significant difference in the starting anthocyanin content. Contrary to this general trend, a significant fluctuation in the anthocyanin content was observed, but with an irregular cyclic pattern. The variabilities in the anthocyanin content between the subcultures for the 33 batches, as represented by the variation coefficient (VC), were 58, 57, 54, and 84% for V vinifera cell lines A, B, C and D, respectively. Within one subculture, the VCs from 12 replicate flasks for each of 12 independent subcultures were averaged, and found to be 9.7%, ranging from 4 to 17%. High- and low-producing cell lines, VV05 and VV06, with 1.8-fold differences in their basal anthocyanin contents, exhibited different inducibilities to L-phenylalanine feeding, methyl jasmonate and light irradiation. The low-producing cell line, showed greater potential in enhanced the anthocyanin production.

Preparation of supported PtRu/C electrocatalyst for direct methanol fuel cells

In this work, high-surface supported PtRu/C were prepared with Ru(NO)(NO3)(3) and [Pt(H2NCH2CH2NH2)(2)]Cl-2 as the precursors and hydrogen as a reducing agent. XRD and TEM analyses showed that the PtRu/C catalysts with different loadings possessed small and homogeneous metal particles. Even at high metal loading (40 wt.% Pt, 20 wt.% Ru) the mean metal particle size is less than 4 nm. Meanwhile, the calculated Pt crystalline lattice parameter and Pt (220) peak position indicated that the geometric structure of Pt was modified by Ru atoms. Among the prepared catalysts, the lattice parameter of 40-20 wt.% PtRu/C contract most. Cyclic voltammetry (CV), chronoamperometry (CA), CO stripping and single direct methanol fuel cell tests jointly suggested that the 40-20 wt.% PtRu/C catalyst has the highest electrochemical activity for methanol oxidation. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure and chemical composition of supported Pt-Sn electrocatalysts for ethanol oxidation

Carbon supported PtSn alloy and PtSnOx particles with nominal Pt:Sn ratios of 3:1 were prepared by a modified polyol method. High resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) and X-ray microchemical analysis were used to characterize the composition, size, distribution, and morphology of PtSn particles. The particles are predominantly single nanocrystals with diameters in the order of 2.0-3.0 nm. According to the XRD results, the lattice constant of Pt in the PtSn alloy is dilated due to Sn atoms penetrating into the Pt crystalline lattice. While for PtSnOx nanoparticles, the lattice constant of Pt only changed a little. HRTEM micrograph of PtSnOx clearly shows that the change of the spacing of Pt (111) plane is neglectable, meanwhile, SnO2 nanoparticles, characterized with the nominal 0.264 nm spacing of SnO2 (10 1) plane, were found in the vicinity of Pt particles. In contrast, the HRTEM micrograph of PtSn alloy shows that the spacing of Pt (111) plane extends to 0.234 nm from the original 0.226 nm. High resolution energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (HR-EDS) analyses show that all investigated particles in the two PtSn catalysts represent uniform Pt/Sn compositions very close to the nominal one. Cyclic voltammograms (CV) in sulfuric acid show that the hydrogen ad/desorption was inhibited on the surface of PtSn alloy compared to that on the surface of the PtSnOx catalyst. PtSnOx catalyst showed higher catalytic activity for ethanol electro-oxidation than PtSn alloy from the results of chronoamperometry (CA) analysis and the performance of direct ethanol fuel cells (DEFCs). It is deduced that the unchanged lattice parameter of Pt in the PtSnOx catalyst is favorable to ethanol adsorption and meanwhile, tin oxide in the vicinity of Pt nanoparticles could offer oxygen species conveniently to remove the CO-like species of ethanolic residues to free Pt active sites. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fenologia e requerimento térmico de videira sob cobertura plástica.

O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar a fenologia e o requerimento térmico da videira Vitis vinifera L., cv. Moscato Giallo sob cobertura plástica, nas condições da Serra Gaúcha.

BRS Prata Garantida: cultivar de bananeira resistente à sigatoka-negra.

Características agronômicas da cultivar BRS Prata Garantida. Reação da cv. BRS Prata Garantida a pragas.

Protocolo para a propagação in vitro de bananeira cultivar prata zulu.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo relatar, de forma simplificada, a partir de resultados de pesquisas realizadas no Laboratório de Biotecnologia da Embrapa Amazônia Ocidental, Manaus, as melhores condições de produção in vitro de mudas da banana cv. Prata Zulu, cultivar que tem sobressaído às demais pela alta resistência à sigatoka-negra e pelos bons resultados fitotécnicos apresentados.

Pelipita: cultivar de bananeira para agroindústria, resistente à sigatoka-negra.

Características agronômicas da cv. Pelipita. Composição bromatológica de frutos das cvs. Pelipita e D'Angola ou Pacovan. Reação da cv. Pelipita a pragas.

BRS Prata Caprichosa: cultivar de bananeira resistente à sigatoka-negra.

Características agronômicas da cultivar BRS Prata Caprichosa. Reação da cv. BRS Prata Caprichosa a pragas.