Global Sensitivity Analysis for MAP Inference in Graphical Models

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

Analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms implicate mTOR signalling in the development of new-onset diabetes after transplantation

Introduction
Despite excellent first year outcomes in kidney transplantation, there remain significant long-term complications related to new-onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT). The purpose of this study was to validate the findings of previous investigations of candidate gene variants in patients undergoing a protocolised, contemporary immunosuppression regimen, using detailed serial biochemical testing to identify NODAT development.

Methods
One hundred twelve live and deceased donor renal transplant recipients were prospectively followed-up for NODAT onset, biochemical testing at days 7, 90, and 365 after transplantation. Sixty-eight patients were included after exclusion for non-white ethnicity and pre-transplant diabetes. Literature review to identify candidate gene variants was undertaken as described previously.

Results
Over 25% of patients developed NODAT. In an adjusted model for age, sex, BMI, and BMI change over 12 months, five out of the studied 37 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were significantly associated with NODAT: rs16936667:PRDM14 OR 10.57;95% CI 1.8–63.0;p = 0.01, rs1801282:PPARG OR 8.5; 95% CI 1.4–52.7; p = 0.02, rs8192678:PPARGC1A OR 0.26; 95% CI 0.08–0.91; p = 0.03, rs2144908:HNF4A OR 7.0; 95% CI 1.1–45.0;p = 0.04 and rs2340721:ATF6 OR 0.21; 95%CI 0.04–1.0; p = 0.05.

Conclusion
This study represents a replication study of candidate SNPs associated with developing NODAT and implicates mTOR as the central regulator via altered insulin sensitivity, pancreatic β cell, and mitochondrial survival and dysfunction as evidenced by the five SNPs.

General significance
1) Highlights the importance of careful biochemical phenotyping with oral glucose tolerance tests to diagnose NODAT in reducing time to diagnosis and missed cases.
2)This alters potential genotype:phenotype association.
3)The replication study generates the hypothesis that mTOR signalling pathway may be involved in NODAT development.

Emotional insecurity in the family and community and youth delinquency in Northern Ireland: A person-oriented analysis across five-waves

Background: Over one billion children are exposed worldwide to political violence and armed conflict. Currently, conclusions about bases for adjustment problems are qualified by limited longitudinal research from a process-oriented, social-ecological perspective. In this study, we examined a theoretically-based model for the impact of multiple levels of the social ecology (family, community) on adolescent delinquency. Specifically, this study explored the impact of children’s emotional insecurity about both the family and community on youth delinquency in Northern Ireland. Methods: In the context of a five-wave longitudinal research design, participants included 999 mother-child dyads in Belfast (482 boys, 517 girls), drawn from socially-deprived, ethnically-homogenous areas that had experienced political violence. Youth ranged in age from 10 to 20 and were 12.18 (SD = 1.82) years old on average at Time 1. Findings: The longitudinal analyses were conducted in hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), allowing for the modeling of inter-individual differences in intra-individual change. Intra-individual trajectories of emotional insecurity about the family related to children’s delinquency. Greater insecurity about the community worsened the impact of family conflict on youth’s insecurity about the family, consistent with the notion that youth’s insecurity about the community sensitizes them to exposure to family conflict in the home. Conclusions: The results suggest that ameliorating children’s insecurity about family and community in contexts of political violence is an important goal toward improving adolescents’ well-being, including reduced risk for delinquency.