Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

Reply to Camens : how recently did modern monotremes diversify?

Camens (1) responds to our analysis of morphological data (2) in which platypuses (Ornithorhynchidae) and echidnas (Tachyglossidae) were inferred to be each other's closest relatives, to the exclusion of Early Cretaceous forms, Teinolophos and Steropodon. Our phylogeny is consistent with the late appearance of undisputed fossil echidnas and platypuses. Molecular dating provided important independent corroboration, revealing that platypuses and echidnas diverged only 19–48 Ma, implying that Teinolophos and Steropodon (105–121 Ma) must lie outside the platypus–echidna dichotomy...

Molecules, morphology, and ecology indicate a recent, amphibious ancestry for echidnas

The semiaquatic platypus and terrestrial echidnas (spiny anteaters) are the only living egg-laying mammals (monotremes). The fossil record has provided few clues as to their origins and the evolution of their ecological specializations; however, recent reassignment of the Early Cretaceous Teinolophos and Steropodon to the platypus lineage implies that platypuses and echidnas diverged >112.5 million years ago, reinforcing the notion of monotremes as living fossils. This placement is based primarily on characters related to a single feature, the enlarged mandibular canal, which supplies blood vessels and dense electrosensory receptors to the platypus bill. Our reevaluation of the morphological data instead groups platypus and echidnas to the exclusion of Teinolophos and Steropodon and suggests that an enlarged mandibular canal is ancestral for monotremes (partly reversed in echidnas, in association with general mandibular reduction). A multigene evaluation of the echidna–platypus divergence using both a relaxed molecular clock and direct fossil calibrations reveals a recent split of 19–48 million years ago. Platypus-like monotremes (Monotrematum) predate this divergence, indicating that echidnas had aquatically foraging ancestors that reinvaded terrestrial ecosystems. This ecological shift and the associated radiation of echidnas represent a recent expansion of niche space despite potential competition from marsupials. Monotremes might have survived the invasion of marsupials into Australasia by exploiting ecological niches in which marsupials are restricted by their reproductive mode. Morphology, ecology, and molecular biology together indicate that Teinolophos and Steropodon are basal monotremes rather than platypus relatives, and that living monotremes are a relatively recent radiation.

An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

An exploration of affine group laws for elliptic curves

Several forms of elliptic curves are suggested for an efficient implementation of Elliptic Curve Cryptography. However, a complete description of the group law has not appeared in the literature for most popular forms. This paper presents group law in affine coordinates for three forms of elliptic curves. With the existence of the proposed affine group laws, stating the projective group law for each form becomes trivial. This work also describes an automated framework for studying elliptic curve group law, which is applied internally when preparing this work.

Evaluation of the iPhone with an acrylic sleeve versus the Scoliometer for rib hump measurement in scoliosis

Background. Vertebral rotation found in structural scoliosis contributes to trunkal asymmetry which is commonly measured with a simple Scoliometer device on a patient's thorax in the forward flexed position. The new generation of mobile 'smartphones' have an integrated accelerometer, making accurate angle measurement possible, which provides a potentially useful clinical tool for assessing rib hump deformity. This study aimed to compare rib hump angle measurements performed using a Smartphone and traditional Scoliometer on a set of plaster torsos representing the range of torsional deformities seen in clinical practice. Methods. Nine observers measured the rib hump found on eight plaster torsos moulded from scoliosis patients with both a Scoliometer and an Apple iPhone on separate occasions. Each observer repeated the measurements at least a week after the original measurements, and were blinded to previous results. Intra-observer reliability and inter-observer reliability were analysed using the method of Bland and Altman and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. The Intra-Class Correlation Coefficients (ICC) were calculated for repeated measurements of each of the eight plaster torso moulds by the nine observers. Results. Mean absolute difference between pairs of iPhone/Scoliometer measurements was 2.1 degrees, with a small (1 degrees) bias toward higher rib hump angles with the iPhone. 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer variability were +/- 1.8 degrees (Scoliometer) and +/- 3.2 degrees (iPhone). 95% confidence intervals for inter-observer variability were +/- 4.9 degrees (iPhone) and +/- 3.8 degrees (Scoliometer). The measurement errors and confidence intervals found were similar to or better than the range of previously published thoracic rib hump measurement studies. Conclusions. The iPhone is a clinically equivalent rib hump measurement tool to the Scoliometer in spinal deformity patients. The novel use of plaster torsos as rib hump models avoids the variables of patient fatigue and discomfort, inconsistent positioning and deformity progression using human subjects in a single or multiple measurement sessions.

Family law issues and schools : guidance for Australian educators

A substantial number of Australian children are now living in separated families, with many moving between their parents’ homes. This has led to educators being confronted with an increasing number of family law issues. This article discusses the key aspects of family law that involve children. It highlights the need for schools to be aware of all family law orders that relate to children in their care, including family court, domestic violence and child protection orders. It also provides guidance in relation to how schools can adopt child focused approaches in some common scenarios, where parents are in dispute. In particular, we will recommend that educators take a child-focused approach, consistent with the principal provision of the Family Law Act 1975 (Cth) that ‘the best interests of the child’ be the paramount consideration. We will highlight how this contrasts starkly with what can be described as a ‘parental rights’ interpretation, which has unfortunately been taken by some since the 2006 amendments to the Family Law Act, and is, in our view, directly at odds with the intention of the legislation.

Identifying familiarity to facilitate intuitive interaction for older adults

Almost every nation on the planet is experiencing increases in both the number and proportion of older adults. Research has shown that older adults use technology less intuitively than younger adults, and have more difficulty with using products effectively. With an ever-increasing population of older adults, it is necessary to understand why they often struggle to use technology, which is becoming more and more important in day to day living. Intuitive use of products is grounded in familiarity and prior experience. The aims of this research were twofold: (i) to examine the differences in familiarity between younger and older adults, to see if this could explain the difficulties faced by some older adults; (ii) to develop investigational methods to assist designers in identifying familiarity in prospective users. Two empirical studies were conducted. The first experiment was conducted in the field with 32 participants, divided across four age groups (18 – 44, 45 – 59, 60 – 74, and 75+). This experiment was conducted in the participants’ homes, with a product they were familiar with. Familiarity was measured through the analysis of data collected through interviews, observation and retrospective protocol. The results of this study show that the youngest group demonstrated significantly higher levels of familiarity with products they own than the 60 – 74 and the 75+ age groups. There were no significant differences between the 18 – 44 age group and the 45 – 59 age group and there were also no significant differences between the three oldest age groups. The second experiment was conducted with 32 participants, across the same four age groups. Four everyday products were used in this experiment. The results of Experiment 2 show that, with previously unused products, younger adults demonstrate significantly higher levels of familiarity than the three older age groups. The three oldest age groups had no significant differences between them. The results of these two studies show that younger adults are more familiar with contemporary products than older adults. They also demonstrate that in terms of familiarity, older adults do not differ significantly as they get older. The results also show that the 45 – 59 age group demonstrate higher levels of familiarity with products they have owned, in comparison with those they have not. The two older age groups did not demonstrate such differences. This suggests that interacting with products over time increases familiarity more for middle-aged adults than for older adults. As a result of this research, a method that can be used by designers to identify potential users’ product familiarity has been identified. This method is easy to use, quick, low cost, highly mobile, flexible, and allows for easy data collection and analysis. A tool has been designed that assists designers and researchers to use the method. Designers can use the knowledge gained from this tool, and integrate it into the design process, resulting in more intuitive products. Such products may lead to improvements in the quality of life of older adults, as a result of improved societal integration, better health management, and more widespread use of communications technology.

Toward a shopping typology of primary male grocery shoppers

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to segment primary male grocery shoppers based on store and product attribute evaluations. A rich profile for each segment is developed. These developed contemporary shopper typologies are contrasted against earlier works. Design/methodology/approach – Data of 280 male grocery shoppers was attained by a survey questionnaire. Factor analysis, cluster analysis and ANOVA were employed to develop specific segments of male shoppers. Findings – Four distinct cohorts of male shoppers emerge from the data of eight constructs, measured by 46 items. One new shopper type, not found in earlier typology literature, emerged from this research. This shopper presented as young, well educated, at the commencement of their career and family lifecycle, attracted by a strong value offer and willingness to share the family food shopping responsibilities. Practical implications – Research outcomes encourage supermarket retailers to implement targeted marketing and rationalized operational strategies that deliver on attributes of importance. Originality/value – This research makes a contribution to segmentation literature and grocery retail practice in several ways. It presents the first retail typology of male supermarket shoppers, employing a cluster analysis technique. The research provides insights into the modern family food shopping behaviour of men, a channel in which men are now recognised as equal contributors. The research provides the basis for further gender comparative and cross-contextual studies.

The health and cost implications of high body mass index in Australian Defence Force personnel.

BACKGROUND: Frequent illness and injury among workers with high body mass index (BMI) can raise the costs of employee healthcare and reduce workforce maintenance and productivity. These issues are particularly important in vocational settings such as the military, which require good physical health, regular attendance and teamwork to operate efficiently. The purpose of this study was to compare the incidence of injury and illness, absenteeism, productivity, healthcare usage and administrative outcomes among Australian Defence Force personnel with varying BMI. METHODS: Personnel were grouped into cohorts according to the following ranges for (BMI): normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m²; n = 197), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m²; n = 154) and obese (≥30 kg/m²) with restricted body fat (≤28 % for females, ≤24 % for males) (n = 148) and with no restriction on body fat (n = 180). Medical records for each individual were audited retrospectively to record the incidence of injury and illness, absenteeism, productivity, healthcare usage (i.e., consultation with medical specialists, hospital stays, medical investigations, prescriptions) and administrative outcomes (e.g., discharge from service) over one year. These data were then grouped and compared between the cohorts. RESULTS: The prevalence of injury and illness, cost of medical specialist consultations and cost of medical scans were all higher (p <0.05) in both obese cohorts compared with the normal cohort. The estimated productivity losses from restricted work days were also higher (p <0.05) in the obese cohort with no restriction on body fat compared with the normal cohort. Within the obese cohort, the prevalence of injury and illness, healthcare usage and productivity were not significantly greater in the obese cohort with no restriction on body fat compared with the cohort with restricted body fat. The number of restricted work days, the rate of re-classification of Medical Employment Classification and the rate of discharge from service were similar between all four cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI in the military increases healthcare usage, but does not disrupt workforce maintenance. The greater prevalence of injury and illness, greater healthcare usage and lower productivity in obese Australian Defence Force personnel is not related to higher levels of body fat.