Multi-node TOA-DOA cooperative LOS-NLOS localization : enabling high accuracy and reliability

This dissertation investigates high performance cooperative localization in wireless environments based on multi-node time-of-arrival (TOA) and direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimations in line-of-sight (LOS) and non-LOS (NLOS) scenarios. Here, two categories of nodes are assumed: base nodes (BNs) and target nodes (TNs). BNs are equipped with antenna arrays and capable of estimating TOA (range) and DOA (angle). TNs are equipped with Omni-directional antennas and communicate with BNs to allow BNs to localize TNs; thus, the proposed localization is maintained by BNs and TNs cooperation. First, a LOS localization method is proposed, which is based on semi-distributed multi-node TOA-DOA fusion. The proposed technique is applicable to mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs). We assume LOS is available between BNs and TNs. One BN is selected as the reference BN, and other nodes are localized in the coordinates of the reference BN. Each BN can localize TNs located in its coverage area independently. In addition, a TN might be localized by multiple BNs. High performance localization is attainable via multi-node TOA-DOA fusion. The complexity of the semi-distributed multi-node TOA-DOA fusion is low because the total computational load is distributed across all BNs. To evaluate the localization accuracy of the proposed method, we compare the proposed method with global positioning system (GPS) aided TOA (DOA) fusion, which are applicable to MANETs. The comparison criterion is the localization circular error probability (CEP). The results confirm that the proposed method is suitable for moderate scale MANETs, while GPS-aided TOA fusion is suitable for large scale MANETs. Usually, TOA and DOA of TNs are periodically estimated by BNs. Thus, Kalman filter (KF) is integrated with multi-node TOA-DOA fusion to further improve its performance. The integration of KF and multi-node TOA-DOA fusion is compared with extended-KF (EKF) when it is applied to multiple TOA-DOA estimations made by multiple BNs. The comparison depicts that it is stable (no divergence takes place) and its accuracy is slightly lower than that of the EKF, if the EKF converges. However, the EKF may diverge while the integration of KF and multi-node TOA-DOA fusion does not; thus, the reliability of the proposed method is higher. In addition, the computational complexity of the integration of KF and multi-node TOA-DOA fusion is much lower than that of EKF. In wireless environments, LOS might be obstructed. This degrades the localization reliability. Antenna arrays installed at each BN is incorporated to allow each BN to identify NLOS scenarios independently. Here, a single BN measures the phase difference across two antenna elements using a synchronized bi-receiver system, and maps it into wireless channel’s K-factor. The larger K is, the more likely the channel would be a LOS one. Next, the K-factor is incorporated to identify NLOS scenarios. The performance of this system is characterized in terms of probability of LOS and NLOS identification. The latency of the method is small. Finally, a multi-node NLOS identification and localization method is proposed to improve localization reliability. In this case, multiple BNs engage in the process of NLOS identification, shared reflectors determination and localization, and NLOS TN localization. In NLOS scenarios, when there are three or more shared reflectors, those reflectors are localized via DOA fusion, and then a TN is localized via TOA fusion based on the localization of shared reflectors.

Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Time-domain models for power system stability and unbalance

It is an important and difficult challenge to protect modern interconnected power system from blackouts. Applying advanced power system protection techniques and increasing power system stability are ways to improve the reliability and security of power systems. Phasor-domain software packages such as Power System Simulator for Engineers (PSS/E) can be used to study large power systems but cannot be used for transient analysis. In order to observe both power system stability and transient behavior of the system during disturbances, modeling has to be done in the time-domain. This work focuses on modeling of power systems and various control systems in the Alternative Transients Program (ATP). ATP is a time-domain power system modeling software in which all the power system components can be modeled in detail. Models are implemented with attention to component representation and parameters. The synchronous machine model includes the saturation characteristics and control interface. Transient Analysis Control System is used to model the excitation control system, power system stabilizer and the turbine governor system of the synchronous machine. Several base cases of a single machine system are modeled and benchmarked against PSS/E. A two area system is modeled and inter-area and intra-area oscillations are observed. The two area system is reduced to a two machine system using reduced dynamic equivalencing. The original and the reduced systems are benchmarked against PSS/E. This work also includes the simulation of single-pole tripping using one of the base case models. Advantages of single-pole tripping and comparison of system behavior against three-pole tripping are studied. Results indicate that the built-in control system models in PSS/E can be effectively reproduced in ATP. The benchmarked models correctly simulate the power system dynamics. The successful implementation of a dynamically reduced system in ATP shows promise for studying a small sub-system of a large system without losing the dynamic behaviors. Other aspects such as relaying can be investigated using the benchmarked models. It is expected that this work will provide guidance in modeling different control systems for the synchronous machine and in representing dynamic equivalents of large power systems.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Modeling contaminant behavior in Lake Superior : a comparison of PCBs, PBDEs, and mercury

A mass‐balance model for Lake Superior was applied to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and mercury to determine the major routes of entry and the major mechanisms of loss from this ecosystem as well as the time required for each contaminant class to approach steady state. A two‐box model (water column, surface sediments) incorporating seasonally adjusted environmental parameters was used. Both numerical (forward Euler) and analytical solutions were employed and compared. For validation, the model was compared with current and historical concentrations and fluxes in the lake and sediments. Results for PCBs were similar to prior work showing that air‐water exchange is the most rapid input and loss process. The model indicates that mercury behaves similarly to a moderately‐chlorinated PCB, with air‐water exchange being a relatively rapid input and loss process. Modeled accumulation fluxes of PBDEs in sediments agreed with measured values reported in the literature. Wet deposition rates were about three times greater than dry particulate deposition rates for PBDEs. Gas deposition was an important process for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs (BDEs 28 and 47), but not for higher‐brominated BDEs. Sediment burial was the dominant loss mechanism for most of the PBDE congeners while volatilization was still significant for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs. Because volatilization is a relatively rapid loss process for both mercury and the most abundant PCBs (tri‐ through penta‐), the model predicts that similar times (from 2 ‐ 10 yr) are required for the compounds to approach steady state in the lake. The model predicts that if inputs of Hg(II) to the lake decrease in the future then concentrations of mercury in the lake will decrease at a rate similar to the historical decline in PCB concentrations following the ban on production and most uses in the U.S. In contrast, PBDEs are likely to respond more slowly if atmospheric concentrations are reduced in the future because loss by volatilization is a much slower process for PBDEs, leading to lesser overall loss rates for PBDEs in comparison to PCBs and mercury. Uncertainties in the chemical degradation rates and partitioning constants of PBDEs are the largest source of uncertainty in the modeled times to steady‐state for this class of chemicals. The modeled organic PBT loading rates are sensitive to uncertainties in scavenging efficiencies by rain and snow, dry deposition velocity, watershed runoff concentrations, and uncertainties in air‐water exchange such as the effect of atmospheric stability.

Water and sanitation accessibility and the health of rural Ugandans

The lack of access to sufficient water and sanitation facilities is one of the largest hindrances towards the sustainable development of the poorest 2.2 billion people in the world. Rural Uganda is one of the areas where such inaccessibility is seriously hampering their efforts at development. Many rural Ugandans must travel several kilometers to fetch adequate water and many still do not have adequate sanitation facilities. Such poor access to clean water forces Ugandans to spend an inordinate amount of time and energy collecting water - time and energy that could be used for more useful endeavors. Furthermore, the difficulty in getting water means that people use less water than they need to for optimal health and well-being. Access to other sanitation facilities can also have a large impact, particularly on the health of young children and the elderly whose immune systems are less than optimal. Hand-washing, presence of a sanitary latrine, general household cleanliness, maintenance of the safe water chain and the households’ knowledge about and adherence to sound sanitation practices may be as important as access to clean water sources. This report investigates these problems using the results from two different studies. It first looks into how access to water affects peoples’ use of it. In particular it investigates how much water households use as a function of perceived effort to fetch it. Operationally, this was accomplished by surveying nearly 1,500 residents in three different districts around Uganda about their water usage and the time and distance they must travel to fetch it. The study found that there is no statistically significant correlation between a family’s water usage and the perceived effort they must put forth to have to fetch it. On average, people use around 15 liters per person per day. Rural Ugandan residents apparently require a certain amount of water and will travel as far or as long as necessary to collect it. Secondly, a study entitled “What Works Best in Diarrheal Disease Prevention?” was carried out to study the effectiveness of five different water and sanitation facilities in reducing diarrheal disease incidences amongst children under five. It did this by surveying five different communities before and after the implementation of improvements to find changes in diarrheal disease incidences amongst children under five years of age. It found that household water treatment devices provide the best means of preventing diarrheal diseases. This is likely because water often becomes contaminated before it is consumed even if it was collected from a protected source.

Design, construction, and testing of a research quality electric machine testbed

With energy demands and costs growing every day, the need for improving energy efficiency in electrical devices has become very important. Research into various methods of improving efficiency for all electrical components will be a key to meet future energy needs. This report documents the design, construction, and testing of a research quality electric machine dynamometer and test bed. This test cell system can be used for research in several areas including: electric drives systems, electric vehicle propulsion systems, power electronic converters, load/source element in an AC Microgrid, as well as many others. The test cell design criteria, and decisions, will be discussed in reference to user functionality and flexibility. The individual power components will be discussed in detail to how they relate to the project, highlighting any feature used in operation of the test cell. A project timeline will be discussed, clearly stating the work done by the different individuals involved in the project. In addition, the system will be parameterized and benchmark data will be used to provide the functional operation of the system. With energy demands and costs growing every day, the need for improving energy efficiency in electrical devices has become very important. Research into various methods of improving efficiency for all electrical components will be a key to meet future energy needs. This report documents the design, construction, and testing of a research quality electric machine dynamometer and test bed. This test cell system can be used for research in several areas including: electric drives systems, electric vehicle propulsion systems, power electronic converters, load/source element in an AC Microgrid, as well as many others. The test cell design criteria, and decisions, will be discussed in reference to user functionality and flexibility. The individual power components will be discussed in detail to how they relate to the project, highlighting any feature used in operation of the test cell. A project timeline will be discussed, clearly stating the work done by the different individuals involved in the project. In addition, the system will be parameterized and benchmark data will be used to provide the functional operation of the system.

Human and embodied energy analysis applied to water source protection and household water treatment interventions used in Mali, West Africa

As water quality interventions are scaled up to meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of the population without access to safe drinking water by 2015 there has been much discussion on the merits of household- and source-level interventions. This study furthers the discussion by examining specific interventions through the use of embodied human and material energy. Embodied energy quantifies the total energy required to produce and use an intervention, including all upstream energy transactions. This model uses material quantities and prices to calculate embodied energy using national economic input/output-based models from China, the United States and Mali. Embodied energy is a measure of aggregate environmental impacts of the interventions. Human energy quantifies the caloric expenditure associated with the installation and operation of an intervention is calculated using the physical activity ratios (PARs) and basal metabolic rates (BMRs). Human energy is a measure of aggregate social impacts of an intervention. A total of four household treatment interventions – biosand filtration, chlorination, ceramic filtration and boiling – and four water source-level interventions – an improved well, a rope pump, a hand pump and a solar pump – are evaluated in the context of Mali, West Africa. Source-level interventions slightly out-perform household-level interventions in terms of having less total embodied energy. Human energy, typically assumed to be a negligible portion of total embodied energy, is shown to be significant to all eight interventions, and contributing over half of total embodied energy in four of the interventions. Traditional gender roles in Mali dictate the types of work performed by men and women. When the human energy is disaggregated by gender, it is seen that women perform over 99% of the work associated with seven of the eight interventions. This has profound implications for gender equality in the context of water quality interventions, and may justify investment in interventions that reduce human energy burdens.

Assessment of soil erosion vulnerability in rural communities in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico : a physical and sociological approach

Soil erosion is a natural geological phenomenon resulting from removal and transportation of soil particles by water, wind, ice and gravity. As soil erosion may be affected from cultural factors as well. The physical and social phenomena of soil erosion are researched in six communities in the upper part of Rio Grijalva Basin in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico. For this study, the USDA RUSLE model was applied to estimate soil erosion rates in the six communities based on the available data. The RUSLE model is based on soil properties, topography, and land cover and management factors. These results showed that estimated soil erosion rates ranged from a high of 2,050 metric ton ha-1 yr-1 to a low of 100 metric ton ha-1 yr-1. A survey concerning knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) related to soil erosion was also conducted in all 236 households in the six communities. The main findings of the KAP survey were: 69% of respondents did not know what soil erosion was, while over 40% of the population perceived that hurricanes are the biggest factors that cause soil erosion, and about 20 % of the interviewees said that the landslides are the consequences of the soil erosion. People in communities did not perceive cultural factors as important in conservation efforts for reduce vulnerability to erosion; therefore, the results obtained are suggested to be useful for informing efforts to educate stakeholders.

Theoretical estimation of optical absorption and photoluminescence in nanostructured silicon; an approach to improve efficiency in nanostructured solar cells

Renewable energy is growing in demand, and thus the the manufacture of solar cells and photovoltaic arrays has advanced dramatically in recent years. This is proved by the fact that the photovoltaic production has doubled every 2 years, increasing by an average of 48% each year since 2002. Covering the general overview of solar cell working, and its model, this thesis will start with the three generations of photovoltaic solar cell technology, and move to the motivation of dedicating research to nanostructured solar cell. For the current generation solar cells, among several factors, like photon capture, photon reflection, carrier generation by photons, carrier transport and collection, the efficiency also depends on the absorption of photons. The absorption coefficient,α, and its dependence on the wavelength, λ, is of major concern to improve the efficiency. Nano-silicon structures (quantum wells and quantum dots) have a unique advantage compared to bulk and thin film crystalline silicon that multiple direct and indirect band gaps can be realized by appropriate size control of the quantum wells. This enables multiple wavelength photons of the solar spectrum to be absorbed efficiently. There is limited research on the calculation of absorption coefficient in nano structures of silicon. We present a theoretical approach to calculate the absorption coefficient using quantum mechanical calculations on the interaction of photons with the electrons of the valence band. One model is that the oscillator strength of the direct optical transitions is enhanced by the quantumconfinement effect in Si nanocrystallites. These kinds of quantum wells can be realized in practice in porous silicon. The absorption coefficient shows a peak of 64638.2 cm-1 at = 343 nm at photon energy of ξ = 3.49 eV ( = 355.532 nm). I have shown that a large value of absorption coefficient α comparable to that of bulk silicon is possible in silicon QDs because of carrier confinement. Our results have shown that we can enhance the absorption coefficient by an order of 10, and at the same time a nearly constant absorption coefficient curve over the visible spectrum. The validity of plots is verified by the correlation with experimental photoluminescence plots. A very generic comparison for the efficiency of p-i-n junction solar cell is given for a cell incorporating QDs and sans QDs. The design and fabrication technique is discussed in brief. I have shown that by using QDs in the intrinsic region of a cell, we can improve the efficiency by a factor of 1.865 times. Thus for a solar cell of efficiency of 26% for first generation solar cell, we can improve the efficiency to nearly 48.5% on using QDs.

Development and improvement of warm-mix asphalt technology

Traditionally, asphalt mixtures were produced at high temperatures (between 150°C to 180°C) and therefore often referred to as Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA). Recently, a new technology named Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) was developed in Europe that allows HMA to be produced at a lower temperature. Over years of research efforts, a few WMA technologies were introduced including the foaming method using Aspha-min® and Advera® WMA; organic additives such as Sasobit® and Asphaltan B®; and chemical packages such as Evotherm® and Cecabase RT®. Benefits were found when lower temperatures were used to produce asphalt mixtures, especially when it comes to environmental and energy savings. Even though WMA has shown promising results in energy savings and emission reduction, however, only limited studies and laboratory tests have been conducted to date. The objectives of this project are to 1) develop a mix design framework for WMA by evaluating its mechanical properties; 2) evaluate performance of WMA containing high percentages of recycled asphalt material; and 3) evaluate the moisture sensitivity in WMA. The test results show that most of the WMA has higher fatigue life and TSR which indicated WMA has better fatigue cracking and moisture damage resistant; however, the rutting potential of most of the WMA tested were higher than the control HMA. A recommended WMA mix design framework was developed as well. The WMA design framework was presented in this study to provide contractors, and government agencies successfully design WMA. Mixtures containing high RAP and RAS were studied as well and the overall results show that WMA technology allows the mixture containing high RAP content and RAS to be produced at lower temperature (up to 35°C lower) without significantly affect the performance of asphalt mixture in terms of rutting, fatigue and moisture susceptibility. Lastly, the study also found that by introducing the hydrated lime in the WMA, all mixtures modified by the hydrated lime passed the minimum requirement of 0.80. This indicated that, the moisture susceptibility of the WMA can be improved by adding the hydrated lime.

Numerical study on the curling and warping of hardened rigid pavement slabs

In-service hardened concrete pavement suffers from environmental loadings caused by curling and warping of the slab. Traditionally, these loadings are computed on the basis of treating the slab as an elastic material, and of evaluating separately the curling and warping components. This dissertation simulates temperature distribution and moisture distribution through the slabs by use of a developed numerical model that couples the heat transfer and moisture transport. The computation of environmental loadings treats the slab as an elastic-viscous material, which considers the relaxation behavior and Pickett effect of the concrete. The heat transfer model considers the impacts of solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature, pavement slab albedo, etc. on the pavement temperature distribution. This dissertation assesses the difference between documented models that aim to predict pavement temperature, highlighting their pros and cons. The moisture transport model is unique for the documented models; it mimics the wetting and drying events occurring at the slab surface. These events are estimated by a proposed statistical algorithm, which is verified by field rainfall data. Analysis of the predicted results examines on the roles of the local air RH (relative humidity), wind speed, rainy pattern in the moisture distribution through the slab. The findings reveal that seasonal air RH plays a decisive role on the slab‘s moisture distribution; but wind speed and its daily variation, daily RH variation, and seasonal rainfall pattern plays only a secondary role. This dissertation sheds light on the computation of environmental loadings that in-service pavement slabs suffer from. Analysis of the computed stresses centers on the stress relaxation near the surface, stress evolution after the curing ends, and the impact of construction season on the stress‘s magnitude. An unexpected finding is that the total environmental loadings at the cyclically-stable state divert from the thermal stresses. At such a state, the total stress at the daytime is roughly equal to the thermal stress; whereas the total stress during the nighttime is far greater than the thermal stress. An explanation for this phenomenon is that during the night hours, the decline of the slab‘s near-surface temperature leads to a drop of the near-surface RH. This RH drop results in contraction therein and develops additional tensile stresses. The dissertation thus argues that estimating the environmental loadings by solely computing the thermally-induced stresses may reach delusive results. It recommends that the total environmental loadings of in-service slabs should be estimated by a sophisticated model coupling both moisture component and temperature component.

Time-domain modeling of high-frequency electromagnetic wave propagation, overhead wires, and earth

Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished. Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.