Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius­Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2-­3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ~ -0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988-2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ~15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.

Pollinator community responses to the spatial population structure of wild plants: A pan-European approach

Land-use changes can alter the spatial population structure of plant species, which may in turn affect the attractiveness of flower aggregations to different groups of pollinators at different spatial scales. To assess how pollinators respond to spatial heterogeneity of plant distributions and whether honeybees affect visitation by other pollinators we used an extensive data set comprising ten plant species and their flower visitors from five European countries. In particular we tested the hypothesis that the composition of the flower visitor community in terms of visitation frequencies by different pollinator groups were affected by the spatial plant population structure, viz. area and density measures, at a within-population (‘patch’) and among-population (‘population’) scale. We found that patch area and population density were the spatial variables that best explained the variation in visitation frequencies within the pollinator community. Honeybees had higher visitation frequencies in larger patches, while bumblebees and hoverflies had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations. Solitary bees had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations and smaller patches. We also tested the hypothesis that honeybees affect the composition of the pollinator community by altering the visitation frequencies of other groups of pollinators. There was a positive relationship between visitation frequencies of honeybees and bumblebees, while the relationship with hoverflies and solitary bees varied (positive, negative and no relationship) depending on the plant species under study. The overall conclusion is that the spatial structure of plant populations affects different groups of pollinators in contrasting ways at both the local (‘patch’) and the larger (‘population’) scales and, that honeybees affect the flower visitation by other pollinator groups in various ways, depending on the plant species under study. These contrasting responses emphasize the need to investigate the entire pollinator community when the effects of landscape change on plant–pollinator interactions are studied.

Modulation of visually evoked cortical fMRI responses by phase of ongoing occipital alpha oscillations

Using simultaneous electroencephalography as a measure of ongoing activity and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) as a measure of the stimulus-driven neural response, we examined whether the amplitude and phase of occipital alpha oscillations at the onset of a brief visual stimulus affects the amplitude of the visually evoked fMRI response. When accounting for intrinsic coupling of alpha amplitude and occipital fMRI signal by modeling and subtracting pseudo-trials, no significant effect of prestimulus alpha amplitude on the evoked fMRI response could be demonstrated. Regarding the effect of alpha phase, we found that stimuli arriving at the peak of the alpha cycle yielded a lower blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) fMRI response in early visual cortex (V1/V2) than stimuli presented at the trough of the cycle. Our results therefore show that phase of occipital alpha oscillations impacts the overall strength of a visually evoked response, as indexed by the BOLD signal. This observation complements existing evidence that alpha oscillations reflect periodic variations in cortical excitability and suggests that the phase of oscillations in postsynaptic potentials can serve as a mechanism of gain control for incoming neural activity. Finally, our findings provide a putative neural basis for observations of alpha phase dependence of visual perceptual performance.

System identification algorithms for the analysis of dielectric responses from broadband spectroscopies

We discuss the modeling of dielectric responses for an electromagnetically excited network of capacitors and resistors using a systems identification framework. Standard models that assume integral order dynamics are augmented to incorporate fractional order dynamics. This enables us to relate more faithfully the modeled responses to those reported in the Dielectrics literature.

Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models

The connection between the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. The anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of column ozone north of 70� N that is accompanied by coherent column ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA column ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability and it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.

Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate-model simulations of the large-scale temperature responses to increased radiative forcing include enhanced land-sea contrast, stronger response at higher latitudes than in the tropics, and differential responsesin warm and cool season climates to uniform forcing. Here we show that these patterns are also characteristic of model simulations of past climates. The differences in the responses over land as opposed to over the ocean, between high and low latitudes, and between summer and winter are remarkably consistent (proportional and nearly linear) across simulations of both cold and warm climates. Similar patterns also appear in historical observations and paleoclimatic reconstructions, implying that such responses are characteristic features of the climate system, and not simple model artifacts, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of climate models to correctly simulate different climatic states.

The interactive responses of water quality and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the long-term effective management of phosphorus

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) plays a key role in eutrophication, a global problem decreasing habitat quality and in-stream biodiversity. Mitigation strategies are required to prevent SRP fluxes from exceeding critical levels, and must be robust in the face of potential changes in climate, land use and a myriad of other influences. To establish the longevity of these strategies it is therefore crucial to consider the sensitivity of catchments to multiple future stressors. This study evaluates how the water quality and hydrology of a major river system in the UK (the River Thames) respond to alterations in climate, land use and water resource allocations, and investigates how these changes impact the relative performance of management strategies over an 80-year period. In the River Thames, the relative contributions of SRP from diffuse and point sources vary seasonally. Diffuse sources of SRP from agriculture dominate during periods of high runoff, and point sources during low flow periods. SRP concentrations rose under any future scenario which either increased a) surface runoff or b) the area of cultivated land. Under these conditions, SRP was sourced from agriculture, and the most effective single mitigation measures were those which addressed diffuse SRP sources. Conversely, where future scenarios reduced flow e.g. during winters of reservoir construction, the significance of point source inputs increased, and mitigation measures addressing these issues became more effective. In catchments with multiple point and diffuse sources of SRP, an all-encompassing effective mitigation approach is difficult to achieve with a single strategy. In order to attain maximum efficiency, multiple strategies might therefore be employed at different times and locations, to target the variable nature of dominant SRP sources and pathways.

Contrasting the responses of three different ground-based instruments to energetic electron precipitation

In order to make best use of the opportunities provided by space missions such as the Radiation Belt Storm Probes, we determine the response of complementary subionospheric radiowave propagation measurements (VLF), riometer absorption measurements (CNA), and GPS-produced total electron content (vTEC) to different energetic electron precipitation (EEP). We model the relative sensitivity and responses of these instruments to idealised monoenergetic beams of precipitating electrons, and more realistic EEP spectra chosen to represent radiation belts and substorm precipitation. In the monoenergetic beam case, we find riometers are more sensitive to the same EEP event occurring during the day than during the night, while subionospheric VLF shows the opposite relationship, and the change in vTEC is independent. In general, the subionospheric VLF measurements are much more sensitive than the other two techniques for EEP over 200 keV, responding to flux magnitudes two-three orders of magnitude smaller than detectable by a riometer. Detectable TEC changes only occur for extreme monoenergetic fluxes. For the radiation belt EEP case, clearly detectable subionospheric VLF responses are produced by daytime fluxes that are ~10 times lower than required for riometers, while nighttime fluxes can be 10,000 times lower. Riometers are likely to respond only to radiation belt fluxes during the largest EEP events and vTEC is unlikely to be significantly disturbed by radiation belt EEP. For the substorm EEP case both the riometer absorption and the subionospheric VLF technique respond significantly, as does the change in vTEC, which is likely to be detectable at ~3-4 TECu.

Direct experimental evidence that early-life farm environment influences regulation of immune responses

Background: In mammals, early-life environmental variations appear to affect microbial colonization and therefore competent immune development, and exposure to farm environments in infants has been inversely correlated with allergy development. Modelling these effects using manipulation of neonatal rodents is difficult due to their dependency on the mother, but the relatively independent piglet is increasingly identified as a valuable translational model for humans. This study was designed to correlate immune regulation in piglets with early-life environment. Methods: Piglets were nursed by their mother on a commercial farm, while isolatorreared siblings were formula fed. Fluorescence immunohistology was used to quantify T-reg and effector T-cell populations in the intestinal lamina propria and the systemic response to food proteins was quantified by capture ELISA. Results: There was more CD4+ and CD4+CD25+ effector T-cell staining in the intestinal mucosa of the isolator-reared piglets compared with their farm-reared counterparts. In contrast, these isolator-reared piglets had a significantly reduced CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T-cell population compared to farm-reared littermates, resulting in a significantly higher T-reg-to-effector ratio in the farm animals. Consistent with these findings, isolator-reared piglets had an increased serum IgG anti-soya response to novel dietary soya protein relative to farm-reared piglets. Conclusion: Here, we provide the first direct evidence, derived from intervention, that components of the early-life environment present on farms profoundly affects both local development of regulatory components of the mucosal immune system and immune responses to food proteins at weaning. We propose that neonatal piglets provide a tractable model which allows maternal and treatment effects to be statistically separated.

Environmentally-acquired bacteria influence microbial diversity and natural innate immune responses at gut surfaces

Background: Early microbial colonization of the gut reduces the incidence of infectious, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Recent population studies reveal that childhood hygiene is a significant risk factor for development of inflammatory bowel disease, thereby reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis and the potential importance of microbial colonization during early life. The extent to which early-life environment impacts on microbial diversity of the adult gut and subsequent immune processes has not been comprehensively investigated thus far. We addressed this important question using the pig as a model to evaluate the impact of early-life environment on microbe/host gut interactions during development. Results: Genetically-related piglets were housed in either indoor or outdoor environments or in experimental isolators. Analysis of over 3,000 16S rRNA sequences revealed major differences in mucosa-adherent microbial diversity in the ileum of adult pigs attributable to differences in earlylife environment. Pigs housed in a natural outdoor environment showed a dominance of Firmicutes, in particular Lactobacillus, whereas animals housed in a hygienic indoor environment had reduced Lactobacillus and higher numbers of potentially pathogenic phylotypes. Our analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between the abundance of Firmicutes and pathogenic bacterial populations in the gut. These differences were exaggerated in animals housed in experimental isolators. Affymetrix microarray technology and Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction revealed significant gut-specific gene responses also related to early-life environment. Significantly, indoorhoused pigs displayed increased expression of Type 1 interferon genes, Major Histocompatibility Complex class I and several chemokines. Gene Ontology and pathway analysis further confirmed these results.

Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K−1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K−1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming.

Early and late stimulus-evoked cortical hemodynamic responses provide insight into the neurogenic nature of neurovascular coupling

Understanding neurovascular coupling is a prerequisite for the interpretation of results obtained from modern neuroimaging techniques. This study investigated the hemodynamic and neural responses in rat somatosensory cortex elicited by 16 seconds electrical whisker stimuli. Hemodynamics were measured by optical imaging spectroscopy and neural activity by multichannel electrophysiology. Previous studies have suggested that the whisker-evoked hemodynamic response contains two mechanisms, a transient ‘backwards’ dilation of the middle cerebral artery, followed by an increase in blood volume localized to the site of neural activity. To distinguish between the mechanisms responsible for these aspects of the response, we presented whisker stimuli during normocapnia (‘control’), and during a high level of hypercapnia. Hypercapnia was used to ‘predilate’ arteries and thus possibly ‘inhibit’ aspects of the response related to the ‘early’ mechanism. Indeed, hemodynamic data suggested that the transient stimulus-evoked response was absent under hypercapnia. However, evoked neural responses were also altered during hypercapnia and convolution of the neural responses from both the normocapnic and hypercapnic conditions with a canonical impulse response function, suggested that neurovascular coupling was similar in both conditions. Although data did not clearly dissociate early and late vascular responses, they suggest that the neurovascular coupling relationship is neurogenic in origin.

Temporal coupling between stimulus-evoked neural activity and hemodynamic responses from individual cortical columns

Using previously published data from the whisker barrel cortex of anesthetized rodents (Berwick et al 2008 J. Neurophysiol. 99 787–98) we investigated whether highly spatially localized stimulus-evoked cortical hemodynamics responses displayed a linear time-invariant (LTI) relationship with neural activity. Presentation of stimuli to individual whiskers of 2 s and 16 s durations produced hemodynamics and neural activity spatially localized to individual cortical columns. Two-dimensional optical imaging spectroscopy (2D-OIS) measured hemoglobin responses, while multi-laminar electrophysiology recorded neural activity. Hemoglobin responses to 2 s stimuli were deconvolved with underlying evoked neural activity to estimate impulse response functions which were then convolved with neural activity evoked by 16 s stimuli to generate predictions of hemodynamic responses. An LTI system more adequately described the temporal neuro-hemodynamics coupling relationship for these spatially localized sensory stimuli than in previous studies that activated the entire whisker cortex. An inability to predict the magnitude of an initial 'peak' in the total and oxy- hemoglobin responses was alleviated when excluding responses influenced by overlying arterial components. However, this did not improve estimation of the hemodynamic responses return to baseline post-stimulus cessation.

Perceptions of and responses to the Holocene flooding of the North Sea lowlands.

This paper explores how the drastic landscape changes that took place in the North Sea basin during the Holocene affected the lives of those dwelling in that area. Previous contributions to the discussion of the Holocene inundation of the North Sea have tended to concentrate on the timings. This paper discusses the ways people could have perceived and responded to these events, emphasizing that climate change should not be viewed apart from social factors. It is also argued that sea-level rise was not something externally imposed on communities but an integral part of their world.

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.