Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently ‘anomalous’1 increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000 years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records2. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation1, 3 or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical4 or boreal sources5, 6. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000 years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000–130,000 years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000 years before the industrial era.

Building dynamic capabilities of adaptation and innovation: a study of micro-foundations in a transition economy

What are the microfoundations of dynamic capabilities that sustain competitive advantage in a highly volatile environment, such as a transition economy? We explore the detailed nature of these dynamic capabilities along with their antecedents by tracing the sequence of their development based on a longitudinal case study of an organization subject to an external context of radical transition — the Russian oil company, Yukos. Our rich qualitative data indicate two distinct types of dynamic capabilities that are pivotal for organizational transformation. Adaptation dynamic capabilities relate to routines of resource exploitation and deployment, which are supported by acquisition, internalization and dissemination of extant knowledge, as well as resource reconfiguration, divestment and integration. Innovation dynamic capabilities relate to the creation of completely new capabilities via exploration and path-creation processes, which are supported by search, experimentation and risk taking, as well as project selection, funding and implementation. Second, we find that sequencing the two types of dynamic capabilities, helped the organization both to secure short-term competitive advantage, and to create the basis for long-term competitive advantage. These dynamic capability constructs advance theoretical understanding of what dynamic capabilities are, whilst their sequencing explains how firms create, leverage and enhance them over time.

Estimating interchannel observation-error correlations for IASI radiance data in the Met Office system

The optimal utilisation of hyper-spectral satellite observations in numerical weather prediction is often inhibited by incorrectly assuming independent interchannel observation errors. However, in order to represent these observation-error covariance structures, an accurate knowledge of the true variances and correlations is needed. This structure is likely to vary with observation type and assimilation system. The work in this article presents the initial results for the estimation of IASI interchannel observation-error correlations when the data are processed in the Met Office one-dimensional (1D-Var) and four-dimensional (4D-Var) variational assimilation systems. The method used to calculate the observation errors is a post-analysis diagnostic which utilises the background and analysis departures from the two systems. The results show significant differences in the source and structure of the observation errors when processed in the two different assimilation systems, but also highlight some common features. When the observations are processed in 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are approximately half the size of the error variances used in the current operational system and are very close in size to the instrument noise, suggesting that this is the main source of error. The errors contain no consistent correlations, with the exception of a handful of spectrally close channels. When the observations are processed in 4D-Var, we again find that the observation errors are being overestimated operationally, but the overestimation is significantly larger for many channels. In contrast to 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are often larger than the instrument noise in 4D-Var. It is postulated that horizontal errors of representation, not seen in 1D-Var, are a significant contributor to the overall error here. Finally, observation errors diagnosed from 4D-Var are found to contain strong, consistent correlation structures for channels sensitive to water vapour and surface properties.

Representativity error for temperature and humidity using the Met Office high-resolution model

The observation-error covariance matrix used in data assimilation contains contributions from instrument errors, representativity errors and errors introduced by the approximated observation operator. Forward model errors arise when the observation operator does not correctly model the observations or when observations can resolve spatial scales that the model cannot. Previous work to estimate the observation-error covariance matrix for particular observing instruments has shown that it contains signifcant correlations. In particular, correlations for humidity data are more significant than those for temperature. However it is not known what proportion of these correlations can be attributed to the representativity errors. In this article we apply an existing method for calculating representativity error, previously applied to an idealised system, to NWP data. We calculate horizontal errors of representativity for temperature and humidity using data from the Met Office high-resolution UK variable resolution model. Our results show that errors of representativity are correlated and more significant for specific humidity than temperature. We also find that representativity error varies with height. This suggests that the assimilation scheme may be improved if these errors are explicitly included in a data assimilation scheme. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Opening up climate research: A linked data approach to publishing data provenance

Traditionally, the formal scientific output in most fields of natural science has been limited to peer- reviewed academic journal publications, with less attention paid to the chain of intermediate data results and their associated metadata, including provenance. In effect, this has constrained the representation and verification of the data provenance to the confines of the related publications. Detailed knowledge of a dataset’s provenance is essential to establish the pedigree of the data for its effective re-use, and to avoid redundant re-enactment of the experiment or computation involved. It is increasingly important for open-access data to determine their authenticity and quality, especially considering the growing volumes of datasets appearing in the public domain. To address these issues, we present an approach that combines the Digital Object Identifier (DOI) – a widely adopted citation technique – with existing, widely adopted climate science data standards to formally publish detailed provenance of a climate research dataset as an associated scientific workflow. This is integrated with linked-data compliant data re-use standards (e.g. OAI-ORE) to enable a seamless link between a publication and the complete trail of lineage of the corresponding dataset, including the dataset itself.

Randomized controlled trial of parent-enhanced CBT compared with individual CBT for obsessive-compulsive disorder in young people

Objective: Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in young people can be effectively treated with Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT). Practice guidelines in the United Kingdom recommend that CBT be delivered with parental or family involvement; however, there is no evidence from randomized trials that this enhances effectiveness. The aim of this trial was to assess if CBT with high parental involvement was more effective than CBT with low parental involvement (individual CBT) in reducing symptoms of OCD. Method: Fifty young people ages 12–17 years with OCD were randomly allocated to individual CBT or parent-enhanced CBT. In parent-enhanced CBT parents attended all treatment sessions; in individual CBT, parents attended only Sessions 1, 7, and the final session. Participants received up to 14 sessions of CBT. Data were analyzed using intent-to-treat and per-protocol methods. The primary outcome measure was the Children’s Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsion Scale (Scahill et al., 1997). Results: Both forms of CBT significantly reduced symptoms of OCD and anxiety. Change in OCD symptoms was maintained at 6 months. Per-protocol analysis suggested that parent-enhanced CBT may be associated with significantly larger reductions in anxiety symptoms. Conclusions: High and low parental involvement in CBT for OCD in young people were both effective, and there was no evidence that 1 method of delivery was superior on the primary outcome measure. However, this study was small. Future trials should be adequately powered and examine interactions with the age of the young person and comorbid anxiety disorders.

Designing a questionnaire to gather carer input to pain assessment for hospitalized people with dementia

We describe development of a questionnaire to elicit pain symptoms and experience, for use by people with dementia or their carers, at hospital admission. The questionnaire provided contextual information to support professionals’ use of the Abbey Pain Scale, a validated tool used by nursing staff internationally. Appropriate information and physical design were required in order, not only to create an approachable questionnaire for patients and carers, but also to ensure fit with hospital processes. Fit with hospital process had significant influence on the final form of the questionnaire, compromising some aspects of design for patients and carers, but this compromise was considered essential to ensure pain management procedures were supplemented by wider, contextual information.

Early modern Oxford bindings in twenty-first century markup

Purpose – The Bodleian Binders Book contains nearly 150 pages of seventeenth century library records, revealing information about the binders used by the library and the thousands of bindings they produced. The purpose of this paper is to explore a pilot project to survey and record bindings information contained in the Binders Book. Design/methodology/approach – A sample size of seven pages (91 works, 65 identifiable bindings) to develop a methodology for surveying and recording bindings listed in the manuscript. To create a successful product that would be useful to bindings researchers, it addressed questions of bindings terminology and the role of the library in the knowledge creation process within the context that text encoding is changing the landscape of library functions. Text encoding formats were examined, and a basic TEI (Text Encoding Initiative) transcription was produced. This facilitates tagging of names and titles and the display of transcriptions with text images. Findings – Encoding was found not only to make the manuscript content more accessible, but to allow for the construction of new knowledge: characteristic Oxford binding traits were revealed and bindings were matched to binders. Plans for added functionality were formed. Originality/value – This research presents a “big picture” analysis of Oxford bindings as a result of text encoding and the foundation for qualitative and statistical analysis. It exemplifies the benefits of interdisciplinary methods – in this case from Digital Humanities – to enhance access to and interpretation of specialist materials and the library's provenance record.

Femininity, feminism and the terrorist

This chapter aims to discuss the relationship between femininity and representations of women involved in violence, focussing on visual representations. Miranda Alison has made the point that the repeated necessity to qualify the term 'combatant' with the descriptor 'female' draws attention to how women soldiers, female freedom fighters, female suicide bombers and female terrorists are exceptional figures. That the female combatant or the female terrorist is an aberration or a deviation from a masculine norm is undermined by the lengthy history of women as warriors, fighters, and terrorists. In that sense it is not so much that fighting women are rare but that there is amnesia within cultural memories concerning the woman fighter. However, in representations of conflict, the dominant image associated with femininity is passive; that is as the defenceless and the defended, or as the allegory of peace. Moreover, representations of men in wars as defeated or wounded means feminising such figures. Miriam Cooke, in her Women and the War Story, 1996, points out how a mythic war story provides men with political roles, in the politikon or public arena, whereas women are domesticated in the space of the oikon. In the mythic war story women may function as Mater Dolorosa, Patriotic Mother or Spartan Mother. It follows then that there are conditions in which it is permissible to represent women fighting on behalf of their children or in defence of the home, and in the absence of men. These images are also found in wider culture: Sarah Connor in Terminator or Ripley in Alien, for example. Images of the female terrorist raise new issues but I want to argue that it is also the case that discussing femininity and the terrorist must involve relating such imagery to representations of the female warrior over a longer timespan. Some questions have shifted since the late twentieth century. Dating from the early 1990s, most Western nations increasingly incorporated women into combat roles within their armed forces. This paper will aim to unpick some of the intricate connections between the increasing presence of women in the armed forces, what relationship this has to emancipation and the participation of women in violence classed as terrorist.

Making an effort to feel positive: insecure attachment in infancy predicts the neural underpinnings of emotion regulation in adulthood

Background: Animal research indicates that the neural substrates of emotion regulation may be persistently altered by early environmental exposures. If similar processes operate in human development then this is significant, as the capacity to regulate emotional states is fundamental to human adaptation. Methods: We utilised a 22-year longitudinal study to examine the influence of early infant attachment to the mother, a key marker of early experience, on neural regulation of emotional states in young adults. Infant attachment status was measured via objective assessment at 18-months, and the neural underpinnings of the active regulation of affect were studied using fMRI at age 22 years. Results: Infant attachment status at 18-months predicted neural responding during the regulation of positive affect 20-years later. Specifically, while attempting to up-regulate positive emotions, adults who had been insecurely versus securely attached as infants showed greater activation in prefrontal regions involved in cognitive control and reduced co-activation of prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens, consistent with relative inefficiency in the neural regulation of positive affect. Conclusions: Disturbances in the mother-infant relationship may persistently alter the neural circuitry of emotion regulation, with potential implications for adjustment in adulthood.

On the role of specific interactions in the diffusion of nanoparticles in aqueous polymer solutions

Understanding nanoparticle diffusion within non-Newtonian biological and synthetic fluids is essential in designing novel formulations (e.g., nanomedicines for drug delivery, shampoos, lotions, coatings, paints, etc.), but is presently poorly defined. This study reports the diffusion of thiolated and PEGylated silica nanoparticles, characterized by small-angle neutron scattering, in solutions of various water-soluble polymers such as poly(acrylic acid) (PAA), poly(Nvinylpyrrolidone) (PVP), poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO), and hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) probed using NanoSight nanoparticle tracking analysis. Results show that the diffusivity of nanoparticles is affected by their dimensions, medium viscosity, and, in particular, the specific interactions between nanoparticles and the macromolecules in solution; strong attractive interactions such as hydrogen bonding hamper diffusion. The water-soluble polymers retarded the diffusion of thiolated particles in the order PEO > PVP > PAA > HEC whereas for PEGylated silica particles retardation followed the order PAA > PVP = HEC > PEO. In the absence of specific interactions with the medium, PEGylated nanoparticles exhibit enhanced mobility compared to their thiolated counterparts despite some increase in their dimensions.