Effect of the environment inside and outside the cage on the activity and behaviour test performance of silver foxes

Selostus: Kasvatushäkin ympäristön vaikutus hopeakettujen käyttäytymiseen

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Changes in running mechanics and spring-mass behaviour induced by a 5-hour hilly running bout.

Abstract The aim of this study was to investigate changes in running mechanics and spring-mass behaviour with fatigue induced by 5-hour hilly running (5HHR). Running mechanics were measured pre- and post-5HHR at 10, 12 and 14 km · h(-1) on an instrumented treadmill in eight ultramarathon runners, and sampled at 1000 Hz for 10 consecutive steps. Contact (t(c) ) and aerial (t(a) ) times were determined from ground reaction force (GRF) signals and used to compute step frequency (f). Maximal GRF, loading rate, downward displacement of the centre of mass (Δz), and leg length change (ΔL) during the support phase were determined and used to compute both vertical (K(vert) ) and leg (K(leg) ) stiffness. A significant decrease in t(c) was observed at 12 and 14 km · h(-1) resulting in an increase of f at all speeds. Duty factor and F(max) significantly decreased at 10 km · h(-1). A significant increase in K(vert) and K(leg) was observed at all running speeds with significant decreases in Δz and ΔL. Despite the shorter duration, the changes in running mechanics appeared to be in the same direction (increased f and K(vert) , decrease in Δz and F(max) ) but of lower amplitude compared with those obtained after an ultra-trail or an ultramarathon.

Analysis, modelling and classification of geospatial data using machine learning

The research considers the problem of spatial data classification using machine learning algorithms: probabilistic neural networks (PNN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark model simple k-nearest neighbor algorithm is considered. PNN is a neural network reformulation of well known nonparametric principles of probability density modeling using kernel density estimator and Bayesian optimal or maximum a posteriori decision rules. PNN is well suited to problems where not only predictions but also quantification of accuracy and integration of prior information are necessary. An important property of PNN is that they can be easily used in decision support systems dealing with problems of automatic classification. Support vector machine is an implementation of the principles of statistical learning theory for the classification tasks. Recently they were successfully applied for different environmental topics: classification of soil types and hydro-geological units, optimization of monitoring networks, susceptibility mapping of natural hazards. In the present paper both simulated and real data case studies (low and high dimensional) are considered. The main attention is paid to the detection and learning of spatial patterns by the algorithms applied.

On the consequences of misspecifing assumptions concerning residuals distribution in a repeated measures and nonlinear mixed modelling context

In this paper we describe the results of a simulation study performed to elucidate the robustness of the Lindstrom and Bates (1990) approximation method under non-normality of the residuals, under different situations. Concerning the fixed effects, the observed coverage probabilities and the true bias and mean square error values, show that some aspects of this inferential approach are not completely reliable. When the true distribution of the residuals is asymmetrical, the true coverage is markedly lower than the nominal one. The best results are obtained for the skew normal distribution, and not for the normal distribution. On the other hand, the results are partially reversed concerning the random effects. Soybean genotypes data are used to illustrate the methods and to motivate the simulation scenarios

Morphology, testes development and behaviour of unusual triploid males in microchromosome-carrying clones of Poecilia formosa.

In a microchromosome-carrying laboratory stock of the normally all-female Amazon molly Poecilia formosa triploid individuals were obtained, all of which spontaneously developed into males. A comparison of morphology of the external and internal insemination apparatus and the gonads, sperm ploidy and behaviour, to laboratory-bred F(1) hybrids revealed that the triploid P. formosa males, though producing mostly aneuploid sperm, are partly functional males that differ mainly in sperm maturation and sexual motivation from gonochoristic P. formosa males.

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC: A new approach to mathematical 3D forward simulation modelling for terrigenous and carbonate marine sedimentation

Most sedimentary modelling programs developed in recent years focus on either terrigenous or carbonate marine sedimentation. Nevertheless, only a few programs have attempted to consider mixed terrigenous-carbonate sedimentation, and most of these are two-dimensional, which is a major restriction since geological processes take place in 3D. This paper presents the basic concepts of a new 3D mathematical forward simulation model for clastic sediments, which was developed from SIMSAFADIM, a previous 3D carbonate sedimentation model. The new extended model, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, simulates processes of autochthonous marine carbonate production and accumulation, together with clastic transport and sedimentation in three dimensions of both carbonate and terrigenous sediments. Other models and modelling strategies may also provide realistic and efficient tools for prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution of sedimentary deposits. However, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC becomes an innovative model that attempts to simulate different sediment types using a process-based approach, therefore being a useful tool for 3D prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution in sedimentary basins. This model is applied to the neogene Vallès-Penedès half-graben (western Mediterranean, NE Spain) to show the capacity of the program when applied to a realistic geologic situation involving interactions between terrigenous clastics and carbonate sediments.

There and back again? Combining habitat suitability modelling and connectivity analyses to assess a potential return of the otter to Switzerland

After a steady decline in the early 20th century, several terrestrial carnivore species have recently recovered in Western Europe, either through reintroductions or natural recolonization. Because of the large space requirements of these species and potential conflicts with human activities, ensuring their recovery requires the implementation of conservation and management measures that address the environmental, landscape and social dimensions of the problem. Few examples exist of such integrated management. Taking the case of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Switzerland, we propose a multi-step approach that allows to (1) identify areas with potentially suitable habitat, (2) evaluate their connectivity, (3) verify the potentiality of the species recolonization from populations in neighbouring countries. We showed that even though suitable habitat is available for the species and the level of structural connectivity within Switzerland is satisfactory, the level of connectivity with neighbouring populations is crucial to prioritize strategies that favour the species recovery in the field. This research is the first example integrating habitat suitability and connectivity assessment at different scales with other factors in a multi-step assessment for species recovery.

The effectiveness of a standardised preoperative preparation in reducing child and parent anxiety: a single-blind randomised controlled trial.

AIMS: To evaluate the effect of a structured preoperative preparation on child and parent state anxiety, child behavioural change and parent satisfaction. BACKGROUND: It is estimated that around 50-70% of hospitalised children experience severe anxiety and distress prior to surgery. Children who are highly anxious and distressed preoperatively are likely to be distressed on awakening and have negative postoperative behaviour. Although education before surgery has been found to be useful mostly in North America, the effectiveness of preoperative preparation programme adapted to the Australian context remains to be tested. DESIGN: This single-blind randomised controlled study was conducted at a tertiary referral hospital for children in Western Australia. METHODS: Following ethics approval and parental consent, 73 children and one of their carers (usually a parent) were randomly assigned into two groups. The control group had standard practice with no specific preoperative education and the experimental group received a preoperative preparation, including a photo file, demonstration of equipment using a role-modelling approach and a tour. RESULTS: The preoperative preparation reduced parent state anxiety significantly (-2·32, CI -4·06 to -0·56, p = 0·009), but not child anxiety (-0·59, CI -1·23 to 0·06, p = 0·07). There was no significant difference in child postoperative behaviour or parent satisfaction between the groups. There was a significant two-point pain score reduction in the preoperative preparation group, when compared with the control group median 2 (IQR 5) and 4 (IQR 4), respectively (p = 0·001).¦CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative preparation was more efficient on parent than child. Although the preoperative preparation had limited effect on child anxiety, it permitted to decrease pain experience in the postoperative period.¦RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Parents should be actively involved in their child preoperative preparation.

Vibrational behaviour of bcc Cu-based shape memory alloys close to the martensitic transition

Experimental data from ultrasonic and inelastic neutron scattering measurements are analyzed for different families of Cu-based shape-memory alloys. It is shown that the transition occurs at a value, independent of composition and alloy family, of the ratio between the elastic constants associated with the two shears necessary to accomplish the lattice distortion from the bcc to the close-packed structure. The zone boundary frequency of the TA2[110] branch evaluated at the transition point (TM), weakly depends, for each family, on composition. A linear relationship between this frequency and the inverse of the elastic constant C', both quantities evaluated at TM, has been found, in agreement with the prediction of a Landau model proposed for martensitic transformations.

Statistics of avalanches in martensitic transformations, II. Modelling

Using a scaling assumption, we propose a phenomenological model aimed to describe the joint probability distribution of two magnitudes A and T characterizing the spatial and temporal scales of a set of avalanches. The model also describes the correlation function of a sequence of such avalanches. As an example we study the joint distribution of amplitudes and durations of the acoustic emission signals observed in martensitic transformations [Vives et al., preceding paper, Phys. Rev. B 52, 12 644 (1995)].

Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in model results. We identify and discuss five areas of enquiry that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: (1) clarification of the niche concept; (2) improved designs for sampling data for building models; (3) improved parameterization; (4) improved model selection and predictor contribution; and (5) improved model evaluation. The challenges discussed in this essay do not preclude the need for developments of other areas of research in this field. However, they are critical for allowing the science of species distribution modelling to move forward.