999 resultados para Bayesian operation


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We show that by introducing a gap at the center of the helical sections (where the current is minimum) of a lambda/2 quadrifilar helix antenna (QHA) and varying the axial length and radial gap between the overlapping volutes, the antenna gives a 28% impedance bandwidth which is nine times the bandwidth of a conventional QHA. A 16% bandwidth with a front to back ratio of >= 14 dB is achievable with 5-14% reduction in the size of the QHA. The structure can yield a monopole radiation pattern suitable for terrestrial applications or a hemispherical pattern suitable for satellite use. The simulation results are validated by measurements at L-band.

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An analysis of a modified series-L/parallel-tuned Class-E power amplifier is presented, which includes the effects that a shunt capacitance placed across the switching device will have on Class-E behaviour. In the original series L/parallel-tuned topology in which the output transistor capacitance is not inherently included in the circuit, zero-current switching (ZCS) and zero-current derivative switching (ZCDS) conditions should be applied to obtain optimum Class-E operation. On the other hand, when the output transistor capacitance is incorporated in the circuit, i.e. in the modified series-L/parallel-tuned topology, the ZCS and ZCDS would not give optimum operation and therefore zero-voltage-switching (ZVS) and zero-voltage-derivative switching (ZVDS) conditions should be applied instead. In the modified series-L/parallel-tuned Class-E configuration, the output-device inductance and the output-device output capacitance, both of which can significantly affect the amplifier's performance at microwave frequencies, furnish part, if not all, of the series inductance L and the shunt capacitance COUT, respectively. Further, when compared with the classic shunt-C/series-tuned topology, the proposed Class-E configuration offers some advantages in terms of 44% higher maximum operating frequency (fMAX) and 4% higher power-output capability (PMAX). As in the classic topology, the fMAX of the proposed amplifier circuit is reached when the output-device output capacitance furnishes all of the capacitance COUT, for a given combination of frequency, output power and DC supply voltage. It is also shown that numerical simulations agree well with theoretical predictions.

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Closed-form design equations for the operation of a class-E amplifier for zero switch voltage slope and arbitrary duty cycle are derived. This approach allows an additional degree of freedom in the design of class-E amplifiers which are normally designed for 50 duty ratio. The analysis developed permits the selection of non-unique solutions where amplifier efficiency is theoretically 100 but power output capability is less than that the 50 duty ratio case would permit. To facilitate comparison between 50 (optimal) and non-50 (suboptimal) duty ratio cases, each important amplifier parameter is normalised to its corresponding optimum operation value. It is shown that by choosing a non-50 suboptimal solution, the operating frequency of a class-E amplifier can be extended. In addition, it is shown that by operating the amplifier in the suboptimal regime, other amplifier parameters, for example, transistor output capacitance or peak switch voltage, can be included along with the standard specification criteria of output power, DC supply voltage and operating frequency as additional input design specifications. Suboptimum class-E operation may have potential advantages for monolithic microwave integrated circuit realisation as lower inductance values (lower series resistance, higher self-resonance frequency, less area) may be required when compared with the results obtained for optimal class-E amplifier synthesis. The theoretical analysis conducted here was verified by harmonic balance simulation, with excellent agreement between both methods. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2007.

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The most appropriate way to measure the social benefits of conserving built cultural heritage sites is to ask the beneficiaries of conservation interventions how much they would be willing to pay for them. We use contingent valuation - a survey-based approach that elicits willingness to pay (WTP) directly from individuals - to estimate the benefits of a nationwide conservation of built cultural heritage sites in Armenia. The survey was administered to Armenian nationals living in Armenia, and obtained extensive information about the respondents' perceptions of the current state of conservation of monuments in Armenia, described the current situation, presented a hypothetical conservation program, elicited WTP for it, and queried individuals about what they thought would happen to monument sites in the absence of the government conservation program. We posit that respondents combined the information about the fate of monuments provided by the questionnaire with their prior beliefs, and that WTP for the good, or program, is likely to be affected by these updated beliefs. We propose a Bayesian updating model of prior beliefs, and empirically implement it with the data from our survey. We found that uncertainty about what would happen to monuments in the absence of the program results in lower WTP amounts. © 2008 Pion Ltd and its Licensors.

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Three experiments investigated the effect of rarity on people's selection and interpretation of data in a variant of the pseudodiagnosticity task. For familiar (Experiment 1) but not for arbitrary (Experiment 3) materials, participants were more likely to select evidence so as to complete a likelihood ratio when the initial evidence they received was a single likelihood concerning a rare feature. This rarity effect with familiar materials was replicated in Experiment 2 where it was shown that participants were relatively insensitive to explicit manipulations of the likely diagnosticity of rare evidence. In contrast to the effects for data selection, there was an effect of rarity on confidence ratings after receipt of a single likelihood for arbitrary but not for familiar materials. It is suggested that selecting diagnostic evidence necessitates explicit consideration of the alternative hypothesis and that consideration of the possible consequences of the evidence for the alternative weakens the rarity effect in confidence ratings. Paradoxically, although rarity effects in evidence selection and confidence ratings are in the spirit of Bayesian reasoning, the effect on confidence ratings appears to rely on participants thinking less about the alternative hypothesis.

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The chronologies of five northern European ombrotrophic peat bogs subjected to a large ANIS C-14 dating effort (32-44 dates/site) are presented here. The results of Bayesian calibration (BCal) of dates with a prior assumption of chronological ordering were compared with a Bayesian wiggle-match approach (Bpeat) which assumes constant linear accumulation over sections of the peat profile. Interpolation of BCal age estimates of dense sequences of C-14 dates showed variable patterns of peat accumulation with time, with changes in accumulation occurring at intervals ranging from 20 to 50 cm. Within these intervals, peat accumulation appeared to be relatively linear. Close analysis suggests that some of the inferred variations in accumulation rate were related to the plant macrofossil composition of the peat. The wiggle-matched age-depth models had relatively high chronological uncertainty within intervals of closely spaced 14 C dates, suggesting that the premise of constant linear accumulation over large sections of the peat profile is unrealistic. Age models based on the assumption of linear accumulation over large parts of a peat core (and therefore only effective over millennial timescales), are not compatible with studies examining environmental change during the Holocene, where variability often occurs at decadal to centennial time-scales. Ideally, future wiggle-match age models should be constrained, with boundaries between sections based on the plant macrofossil composition of the peat and physical-chemical parameters such as the degree of decomposition. Strategies for the selection of material for dating should be designed so that there should be enough C-14 dates to accurately reconstruct the peat accumulation rate of each homogeneous stratigraphic unit. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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