Information Design

There are two ways of creating incentives for interacting agents to behave in a desired way. One is by providing appropriate payoff incentives, which is the subject of mechanism design. The other is by choosing the information that agents observe, which we refer to as information design. We consider a model of symmetric information where a designer chooses and announces the information structure about a payoff relevant state. The interacting agents observe the signal realizations and take actions which affect the welfare of both the designer and the agents. We characterize the general finite approach to deriving the optimal information structure for the designer - the one that maximizes the designer's ex ante expected utility subject to agents playing a Bayes Nash equilibrium. We then apply the general approach to a symmetric two state, two agent, and two actions environment in a parameterized underlying game and fully characterize the optimal information structure: it is never strictly optimal for the designer to use conditionally independent private signals; the optimal information structure may be a public signal or may consist of correlated private signals. Finally, we examine how changes in the underlying game affect the designer's maximum payoff. This exercise provides a joint mechanism/information design perspective.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

Evaluation of the xenodiagnosis of chronic Chagas patients infected ten years or over in an area where transmission has been interrupted - Iguatama and Pains, west Minas Gerais State, Brazil

To evaluate the results of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas patients infected for ten years or over in an area where transmission has been stemmed as well as the performance of these tests applied one or more times to determine the presence of the paraiste in serum-positive patients for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, 570 xenodiagnosis were performed in 246 patients by exoposing each pacient to 40 Triatoma infestans nymphs of 3 rd/4th stage once, twice or three times, at 30 days intervals. The 570 xenodiagnosis showed overall positive results in 50.7% with a peak 78% in patients under 20 years of age, and 60.5% in those over 60. Of the l58 patients who underwent three xenodiagnosis, 51 (32.3%) had three positive tests, 48 (30.3%) had all negative results, and the remainder had alternating positve and negative findings. There was no difference in number of positive results between the 1st, 2nd and 2rd tests; however, the 1st and 2nd trials added up to 53.2% and the sum total of all three trials was 57.7%.

No evidence for immune priming in ants exposed to a fungal pathogen.

There is accumulating evidence that invertebrates can acquire long-term protection against pathogens through immune priming. However, the range of pathogens eliciting immune priming and the specificity of the response remain unclear. Here, we tested if the exposure to a natural fungal pathogen elicited immune priming in ants. We found no evidence for immune priming in Formica selysi workers exposed to Beauveria bassiana. The initial exposure of ants to the fungus did not alter their resistance in a subsequent challenge with the same fungus. There was no sign of priming when using homologous and heterologous combinations of fungal strains for exposure and subsequent challenges at two time intervals. Hence, within the range of conditions tested, the immune response of this social insect to the fungal pathogen appears to lack memory and strain-specificity. These results show that immune priming is not ubiquitous across pathogens, hosts and conditions, possibly because of immune evasion by the pathogen or efficient social defences by the host.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

A Data mining approach to indirect inference

Consider a model with parameter phi, and an auxiliary model with parameter theta. Let phi be a randomly sampled from a given density over the known parameter space. Monte Carlo methods can be used to draw simulated data and compute the corresponding estimate of theta, say theta_tilde. A large set of tuples (phi, theta_tilde) can be generated in this manner. Nonparametric methods may be use to fit the function E(phi|theta_tilde=a), using these tuples. It is proposed to estimate phi using the fitted E(phi|theta_tilde=theta_hat), where theta_hat is the auxiliary estimate, using the real sample data. This is a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimator, under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo results for dynamic panel data and vector autoregressions show that this estimator can have very attractive small sample properties. Confidence intervals can be constructed using the quantiles of the phi for which theta_tilde is close to theta_hat. Such confidence intervals are found to have very accurate coverage.

Infection of Anopheles darlingi fed on patients infected with Plasmodium vivax before and during treatment with chloroquine plus primaquine in Costa Marques, Rondônia, Brazil

Five patients with asexual and sexual parasites of Plasmodium vivax were treated orally with 600 mg chloroquine diphosphate (hour 0) followed with 300 mg at 8, 24 and 48 h later. Primaquine phospate, 15 mg, was administered concurrently at h 0 and 24 h intervals for 14 days. Anopheles darlingi were fed before the first dose (h-0.5) and 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 20, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 h later. Mosquitoes were examined for oocysts on day 8 and for sporozoites on day 15 after infection. Four of the five patients studied were still infective to mosquitoes from 1-5 h after the first dose of chloroquine plus primaquine. One of these and one other patient, who vomited 15 min after the first dose, became inffective again at hours 10 and 12, respectively. Once produced, oocysts in mosquitoes fed on patients before, during and after chloroquine plus primaquine treatment appeared normal and produced sporozoite infected salivary glands. In view of these data , it is concluded that primaquine demonstrated rapid gametocytocidal activity and should be administred concurrently with chloroquine to reduce vivax malaria transmission.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Is there a common factor for vision?

In cognition, common factors play a crucial role. For example, different types of intelligence are highly correlated, pointing to a common factor, which is often called g. One might expect that a similar common factor would also exist for vision. Surprisingly, no one in the field has addressed this issue. Here, we provide the first evidence that there is no common factor for vision. We tested 40 healthy students' performance in six basic visual paradigms: visual acuity, vernier discrimination, two visual backward masking paradigms, Gabor detection, and bisection discrimination. One might expect that performance levels on these tasks would be highly correlated because some individuals generally have better vision than others due to superior optics, better retinal or cortical processing, or enriched visual experience. However, only four out of 15 correlations were significant, two of which were nontrivial. These results cannot be explained by high intraobserver variability or ceiling effects because test-retest reliability was high and the variance in our student population is commensurate with that from other studies with well-sighted populations. Using a variety of tests (e.g., principal components analysis, Bayes theorem, test-retest reliability), we show the robustness of our null results. We suggest that neuroplasticity operates during everyday experience to generate marked individual differences. Our results apply only to the normally sighted population (i.e., restricted range sampling). For the entire population, including those with degenerate vision, we expect different results.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in young adults : a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients. METHODS: We pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ≤45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17 700 cases and 22 704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI = 9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking = 5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR = 1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

Repositioning precision of coronary arteries measured on X-ray angiography and its implications for coronary MR angiography.

BACKGROUND: To test the hypothesis that intervals with superior beat-to-beat coronary artery repositioning precision exist in the cardiac cycle, to design a coronary MR angiography (MRA) methodology in response, and to ascertain its performance. METHODS: Coronary repositioning precision in consecutive heartbeats was measured on x-ray coronary angiograms of 17 patients and periods with the highest repositioning precision were identified. In response, the temporal order of coronary MRA pulse sequence elements required modification and the T2 -prep now follows (T2 -post) rather than precedes the imaging part of the sequence. The performance of T2 -post was quantitatively compared (signal-to-noise [SNR], contrast-to-noise [CNR], vessel sharpness) to that of T2 -prep in vivo. RESULTS: Coronary repositioning precision is <1 mm at peak systole and in mid diastole. When comparing systolic T2 -post to diastolic T2 -prep, CNR and vessel sharpness remained unchanged (both P = NS) but SNR for muscle and blood increased by 104% and 36% (both P < 0.05), respectively. CONCLUSION: Windows with improved coronary repositioning precision exist in the cardiac cycle: one in peak systole and one in mid diastole. Peak-systolic imaging necessitates a re-design of conventional coronary MRA pulse sequences and leads to image quality very similar to that of conventional mid-diastolic data acquisition but improved SNR. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2015;41:1251-1258. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Endogenous steroid profiling in the athlete biological passport.

The Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) is an individual electronic document that collects data regarding a specific athlete that is useful in differentiating between natural physiologic variations of selected biomarkers and deviations caused by artificial manipulations. A subsidiary of the endocrine module of the ABP, that which here is called Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP), collects data on markers of an altered metabolism of endogenous steroidal hormones measured in urine samples. The ASP aims to identify not only doping with anabolic-androgenic steroids, but also most indirect steroid doping strategies such as doping with estrogen receptor antagonists and aromatase inhibitors. Development of specific markers of steroid doping, use of the athlete's previous measurements to define individual limits, with the athlete becoming his or her own reference, the inclusion of heterogeneous factors such as the UDPglucuronosyltransferase B17 genotype of the athlete, the knowledge of potentially confounding effects such as heavy alcohol consumption, the development of an external quality control system to control analytical uncertainty, and finally the use of Bayesian inferential methods to evaluate the value of indirect evidence have made the ASP a valuable alternative to deter steroid doping in elite sports. The ASP can be used to target athletes for gas chromatography/combustion/ isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) testing, to withdraw temporarily the athlete from competing when an abnormality has been detected, and ultimately to lead to an antidoping infraction if that abnormality cannot be explained by a medical condition. Although the ASP has been developed primarily to ensure fairness in elite sports, its application in endocrinology for clinical purposes is straightforward in an evidence-based medicine paradigm.

Lobbying of Firms by Voters

A firm may induce voters or elected politicians to support a policy it favors by suggesting that it is more likely to invest in a district whose voters or representatives support the policy. In equilibrium, no one vote may be decisive, and the policy may gain strong support though the majority of districts suffer from adoption of the program. When votes reveal information about the district, the firm's implicit promise or threat can be credible.

A cohort-based analysis of the evolution of lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution by men in the general population of Switzerland, 1987-2000

Background: Despite their relevance to the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, there are few data on the frequency of recourse to prostitution in the male population in Switzerland. Using data gathered for the evaluation of the Swiss AIDS prevention strategy, we analysed net aggregate change and cohort-based change in lifetime prevalence of recourse to prostitution. Methods: Seven repeated cross-sectional telephone surveys of the general population aged 17-45 years (17-30 years only for the 1987 and 1988 surveys) were undertaken from 1987 to 2000 providing information on sexual behaviour including men's recourse to prostitution (total n¼9318). Age categories were: 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41-45 years. Prevalence at 17-30 years was available in all surveys and prevalence at 41-45 was available for 1989-2000, though not for the same cohorts. Intra-cohort increase in prevalence over 10 years was analysed using truncated information for cohorts aged 21-25 and 26-30 years in 1987 and 1990. Population estimates were computed with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: No net change occurred in the 17-45 years male population prevalence between 1989 (17.6%, CI ¼ 15.4; 20.0) and 2000 (17.7%, CI ¼ 15.6; 20.0). The median starting prevalence of recourse to prostitution at age 17-20 was 4.8% (in 1989, CI ¼ 2.0; 9.7) and the range was from 1.8 (in 1994) to 10.4% (in 1990). The median ending prevalence at age 41-45 was 21.9% (in 1994, CI 16.7; 27.9) and the range was from 17.9 (in 2000) to 26.1% (in 1992). No clear trend was observed in either starting or ending prevalence. Intra-cohort evolution of the 1997 and 1990 cohorts was very similar. Conclusions: Based on available data, there was no net (aggregate) change in the prevalence of recourse to prostitution by males in Switzerland between 1989 and 2000. Within the time frame available, intra-cohort evolution was also very similar.

Effects of azadirachtin on Rhodnius prolixus: immunity and trypanosoma interaction

The effects of azadirachtin, a tetranortriterpenoid from the neem tree Aradirachta indica J. on both immunity and Trypanosoma cruzi interaction within Rhodniusprolixus and other triatomines, were presented Given through a blood meal, azadirachtin affected the immune reactivity as shown by a significant reduction in numbers of hemocytes and consequently nodule formation follwing challenge with Enterobacter cloacae ß12, reduction in ability to produce antibacterial activities in the hemolymph when injected with bacteria, and decreased ability to destroy the infection caused by inoculation of E. cloacae cells. A single dose of azadirachtin was able to block the development of T. cruzi in R. prolixus if given through the meal at different intervals, together with, before or after parasite infection. Similary, these results were observed with different triatomine species and different strains of T. cruzi. Azadirachtin induced a permanent resistance of the vector against reinfection with T. cruzi. The significance of these data is discussed in relation to the general mode of azadirachtin action in insects.